Salary Cap: Red Wings 2016-17 Cap discussion

[Henkka]

There's now some reports on Twitter (Mirtle) that next season's cap will be announced at next week. It is very strongly rumoured to be at ~73M ballpark. Escalator will be used by the NHLPA, so the cap will rise a bit.

So what we have in our own team?

1. Zetterberg - 6.083M
2. Nyquist - 4.750M
3. Abdelkader - 4.250M
4. Tatar - 2.750M
5. Sheahan - 2.075M
6. Larkin - 925k
7. Jurco - 900k
8. Mantha - 863k
9. Athanasiou - 628k
10. Glendening - 628k
---------------------
11. Helm - UFA (extended, ~2.75M estimation)
12. Miller - UFA (extended, ~1.0M estimation)
13. Pulkkinen - RFA (extended, ~808k estimation, qualifying offer?)
--------------------
Buried, Datsyuk - 7.500M caphit (100% count against the cap)
LTIR, Franzen - 3.954M

1. Green - 6.000M
2. Kronwall - 4.750M
3. DeKeyser - RFA (extended, ~4.5M estimation)
4. Ericsson - 4.250M
5. Smith - 2.750M
6. Marchenko - RFA (extended, ~2.0M estimation)
7. Ouellet - 715k
8. Sproul - 600k

8 defencemen carried up, because both Ouellet and Sproul would have to clear waivers.

1. Howard - 5.292M
2. Mrazek - RFA (extended, ~3.5M estimation)

Other costs:
2015-16 Bonus overage - 550k
Weiss buyout - 1.067M
Kindl salary retention - 360k

Current total figures : 76.199M
Salary Cap (estimated) ~73.000M

= Cap space -3.199M (with 14+8+2 roster = 24, Datsyuk included)
LTIR Cap maximum space through Franzen LTIR = 0.755M

In reality, our cap space would be zero, because total caphits at season start will determine the new maximum cap when Franzen is put on LTIR. We could use 755k more of that Franzen space, or maybe not. Becoming contracts will determine that. It doesn't make any difference in theory, until we aren't going over that number.

This would be our conservative look. No real changes, just promoting own kids and extending former Red Wings.

Zeta - Larkin - Abdelkader
Tatar - Sheahan - Nyquist
Helm - Athanasiou - Mantha
Miller - Glendening - Jurco
(Pulkkinen)

DeKeyser - Green
Kronwall - Marchenko
Ericsson - Smith
(Ouellet, Sproul)

Mrazek/Howard

If we can't get any bad contracts moved (Datsyuk, Howard, Ericsson), our UFA signing cap space (instead of signing Darren Helm) would be ~3.5M.

If we can get Datsyuk caphit moved, then we have ~12 million in use for 2 forward spots. Huge difference.

Where does that 12 million come from?

- Datsyuk 7.5M caphit gone
- Helm ~2.75M (estimation) not extended
- Mantha put on AHL, makes 900k of space
- Mule LTIR in full usage, adds 750k. Or could be less, if contract extension will eat more.

I think there is a real possibility to sign Stamkos for 8 million and another guy (Radulov?) for 3-4 million, if they are interested to join.

Click to read more...

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Maybe they could go for Yandle instead of Stamkos. Buy out Ericsson, sign Yandle, don't sign Helm.

DeKeyser-Green
Yandle-Marchenko
Kronwall-Smith

A solid puckmover on every pairing.

 

[Spitfire11]

Quite impressive that such a **** roster can produce that cap hit.

I don't see any feasible way to make that team a serious Cup competitor, sell off and rebuild.

 

[SimplySolace]

I think there is a real possibility to sign Stamkos for 8 million and another guy (Radulov?) for 3-4 million, if they are interested to join.

Tampa offered him $8.5 already, why the hell would he come here for less? Good luck getting Radulov for less than $4 too.

 

[Henkka]

Tampa offered him $8.5 already, why the hell would he come here for less?

I've seen lot more weird things than somebody taking less. Maybe he just hates his GM. Who knows.

I don't expect Stamkos to sign here. Point was to just bring in the raw numbers. It's technically possible, if certain things will happen.

 

[Reddwit]

Helm isn't staying for 2.75 and Marchenko is getting closer to 1M than 2.

 

[Henkka]

Helm isn't staying for 2.75 and Marchenko is getting closer to 1M than 2.

Fine. Then we can offer more for Helm (or for another UFA) and take that space from Marchenko.

 

[Claypool]

Quite impressive that such a **** roster can produce that cap hit.

Well yeah, they have $7.5 million in dead space they can't use.

 

[jkutswings]

Well yeah, they have $7.5 million in dead space they can't use.

And multiple bad deals they can't get rid of. Not a pretty time cap-wise.

 

[13to40]

If Datsyuk doesn't come back and his contract is moved, I can see holland offering lucic a nice contract.

 

[Claypool]

And multiple bad deals they can't get rid of. Not a pretty time cap-wise.

Ok, Ericsson, who else? Zetterberg? That's two players I count, and one deteriorated due to injury. Every team has a couple contracts they'd love to dump. The Red Wings are not unique to this.

 

[burrythebiscuit*]

There's now some reports on Twitter (Mirtle) that next season's cap will be announced at next week. It is very strongly rumoured to be at ~73M ballpark. Escalator will be used by the NHLPA, so the cap will rise a bit.

So what we have in our own team?

1. Zetterberg - 6.083M
2. Nyquist - 4.750M
3. Abdelkader - 4.250M
4. Tatar - 2.750M
5. Sheahan - 2.075M
6. Larkin - 925k
7. Jurco - 900k
8. Mantha - 863k
9. Athanasiou - 628k
10. Glendening - 628k
---------------------
11. Helm - UFA (extended, ~2.75M estimation)
12. Miller - UFA (extended, ~1.0M estimation)
13. Pulkkinen - RFA (extended, ~808k estimation, qualifying offer?)
--------------------
Buried, Datsyuk - 7.500M caphit (100% count against the cap)
LTIR, Franzen - 3.954M

1. Green - 6.000M
2. Kronwall - 4.750M
3. DeKeyser - RFA (extended, ~4.5M estimation)
4. Ericsson - 4.250M
5. Smith - 2.750M
6. Marchenko - RFA (extended, ~2.0M estimation)
7. Ouellet - 715k
8. Sproul - 600k

8 defencemen carried up, because both Ouellet and Sproul would have to clear waivers.

1. Howard - 5.292M
2. Mrazek - RFA (extended, ~3.5M estimation)

Other costs:
2015-16 Bonus overage - 550k
Weiss buyout - 1.067M
Kindl salary retention - 360k

Current total figures : 76.199M
Salary Cap (estimated) ~73.000M

= Cap space -3.199M (with 14+8+2 roster = 24, Datsyuk included)
LTIR Cap maximum space through Franzen LTIR = 0.755M

In reality, our cap space would be zero, because total caphits at season start will determine the new maximum cap when Franzen is put on LTIR. We could use 755k more of that Franzen space, or maybe not. Becoming contracts will determine that. It doesn't make any difference in theory, until we aren't going over that number.

This would be our conservative look. No real changes, just promoting own kids and extending former Red Wings.

Zeta - Larkin - Abdelkader
Tatar - Sheahan - Nyquist
Helm - Athanasiou - Mantha
Miller - Glendening - Jurco
(Pulkkinen)

DeKeyser - Green
Kronwall - Marchenko
Ericsson - Smith
(Ouellet, Sproul)

Mrazek/Howard

If we can't get any bad contracts moved (Datsyuk, Howard, Ericsson), our UFA signing cap space (instead of signing Darren Helm) would be ~3.5M.

If we can get Datsyuk caphit moved, then we have ~12 million in use for 2 forward spots. Huge difference.

Where does that 12 million come from?

- Datsyuk 7.5M caphit gone
- Helm ~2.75M (estimation) not extended
- Mantha put on AHL, makes 900k of space
- Mule LTIR in full usage, adds 750k. Or could be less, if contract extension will eat more.

I think there is a real possibility to sign Stamkos for 8 million and another guy (Radulov?) for 3-4 million, if they are interested to join.

Helm can go. Zero.... Zero.... Can I say again zero need for helm on this roster. It's not worth it. Your paying to pretty much let Jurco waste another year on the fourth line while helm gets the third line with probably the same production jurcs would get with those minutes. Helm needs to go. PEROIOD. His speed is overrated. Give that spot to Callahan,Nosek. Save the money.

 

[lidstromiscool]

Was pretty pumped when I heard Holland was debating buying out Ericsson and getting rid of Datsyuks contract to create some cap space to actually make a few moves. But after seeing this and the actual numbers, would bet on it being a pretty boring summer not being able to do much. Oh well. Thanks for putting all the numbers together!

 

[Pavels Dog]

Quite impressive that such a **** roster can produce that cap hit.

I don't see any feasible way to make that team a serious Cup competitor, sell off and rebuild.

Obviously 7.5 million of dead cap hurts. But if you look top to bottom, there's a lot of NHL level players there. We're not really putting any longshot prospects into our roster projections, we have two good goalies.. we have better depth than people realize. And depth costs money.

Move Datsyuk's contract and Smith (maybe even in the same deal?) and don't re-sign Helm and that opens up enough room to at least go after Radulov+ a d-man. Stamkos was always a huge pipe dream on the part of this board, just too expensive.

 

[waltdetroit]

My concern that I cannot seem to get my head around is the timing of the cap. You can be 10% over but have to be at the cap at a certain date. This includes Mule's LTIR. So do you need to put players on waivers to get under the cap? Once Mule comes off, then bring them back if they clear?

 

[Reddwit]

Fine. Then we can offer more for Helm (or for another UFA) and take that space from Marchenko.

Why offer more for Helm? Helm gets zero, March gets 1.2-ish, you move Smith for a pick or two, and all of a sudden you have close to 6.5M to fight for Yandle or Okposo with.

 

[jkutswings]

Ok, Ericsson, who else? Zetterberg? That's two players I count, and one deteriorated due to injury. Every team has a couple contracts they'd love to dump. The Red Wings are not unique to this.

Add Howard and Franzen for sure, and the Weiss buyout is still on the books. The Abdelkader deal is a bad contract, but it hasn't hurt the team yet, so if you don't want to count it, that's fine.

Holland has overpaid and overextended several players, and the financials are now suffering because of it. For starters, somebody needs to get it through Kenny's skull that deals over 5 years should NEVER be an option.

 

[Tatar Shots]

Where are you getting your numbers from? The Wings currently have $59,776,211 against the cap. This is including Datsyuk and Franzen. If we assume $4.25 million for Dekeyser and $3.5 million for Mrazek, that puts us at $67,526,211. Add in Ouellet at $750k and Sproul at 550k and that puts us at $68,791,211 add in Marchenko, Miller, and Pulkkinen at a combined 3 million and that puts us at $71,791,211. subtract Franzen's $3,9540,000 and that puts us at $67,937,211 with a full roster. This gives us a bit over $5 million of free space with a 23 man roster meaning we would likely have close to $6 million to add a free agent if we do not move Datsyuk's contract.

 

[Frk It]

But if you look top to bottom, there's a lot of NHL level players there.

Well I would hope so, at the least.

 

[13Wings40]

thoughts

Howard ( 5.29mil ) for Ennis (4.6mil)?

hes 26 years old, speedy, can play center and wing but he's 5'9.

go sign a backup goalie Lindback or Hutton for 1-2 mil after

 

[Henkka]

If Datsyuk doesn't come back and his contract is moved, I can see holland offering lucic a nice contract.

He has been talking that "we have to get bigger and tougher" for a while...

I smell the same.

 

[Hush]

If they can move the Datsyuk contract, I say offer Stamkos 10 years and 10.5 million per season.

 

[Henkka]

Why offer more for Helm? Helm gets zero, March gets 1.2-ish, you move Smith for a pick or two, and all of a sudden you have close to 6.5M to fight for Yandle or Okposo with.

It doesn't really matter if we offer Helm 3.25M and use the all LTIR overage, or offer 600k minimum, our cap limit will still be the same.

These LTIR thing makes some contract values kind of "meaningless", because you can use the extra space it gives, but it's not cumulative.

Only thing which will matter, is to have as high as possible total cap number at season start with the LTIR usage Franzen caphit is possible to give.

My concern that I cannot seem to get my head around is the timing of the cap. You can be 10% over but have to be at the cap at a certain date. This includes Mule's LTIR. So do you need to put players on waivers to get under the cap? Once Mule comes off, then bring them back if they clear?

We will put some players technically out from the cap for 1st day of the season and call instantly back.

Larkin 925k (ELC, outside of waivers)
Mantha 893k (ELC, outside from waivers)
Athanasiou 628k (ELC, outside from waivers)

Ericsson waived (no one is gonna pick him), 925k relief
Howard waived (no one is gonna pick him either), 925k relief

That's total 4.3 million to get under the real cap figure. Pretty much it will need only one contract to be waived, if we don't push towards the whole 3.9M LTIR number.

 

[Run the Jewels]

If Datsyuk doesn't come back and his contract is moved, I can see holland offering lucic a nice contract.

More likely to be Elias, Hollland does like his free agents to be old and on their last legs.

 

[Run the Jewels]

Howard ( 5.29mil ) for Ennis (4.6mil)?

hes 26 years old, speedy, can play center and wing but he's 5'9.

go sign a backup goalie Lindback or Hutton for 1-2 mil after

That's a reasonable trade. They're both on crap contracts but at least Ennis can give you some forward depth and could be a 20ish goal scorer. Also gives you a very small amonut of cap space in the deal.