Real Talk. I'm scared. Are you?

[nexttothemoon]

3-1-1 7 pts
2-1-2 6 pts
4-1-0 8 pts
3-0-2 8 pts
2-2-1 5 pts
4-1-0 8 pts
0-2-0 0 pts (so far)

That's the St Louis Blues season so far broken down into 5 game chunks just for comparison (...the team leading the West (until tonight) and the SC Champs).

Is that record better than the Oilers so far? Marginally, yes.. but they've had stretches of barely .500 hockey as well... and they are currently on a poor start to their current set of 5 games that may leave them below .500 in that set as well.

Point being that even the best team and the SC champs have ups and downs all season long and maintaining a winning record constantly is tough to do over 82 games.

I'd like the Oilers to be able to put up more 7-10 point stretches in each 5 game chunk.. but parity being what it is... that's very tough to do consistently unless you are a very elite team with very good depth at every position.

 

[Dradavich]

There are times where this team looks like an AHL squad and times where this team looks like a Cup Contender, i mean the Carolina game for example. the first 10 times of that 3rd peroid they dominated the canes, and then the last 10 minutes they played like a bunch of bums.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

3-1-1 7 pts
2-1-2 6 pts
4-1-0 8 pts
3-0-2 8 pts
2-2-1 5 pts
4-1-0 8 pts
0-2-0 0 pts (so far)

That's the St Louis Blues season so far broken down into 5 game chunks just for comparison (...the team leading the West (until tonight) and the SC Champs).

Is that record better than the Oilers so far? Marginally, yes.. but they've had stretches of barely .500 hockey as well... and they are currently on a poor start to their current set of 5 games that may leave them below .500 in that set as well.

Point being that even the best team and the SC champs have ups and downs all season long and maintaining a winning record constantly is tough to do over 82 games.

I'd like the Oilers to be able to put up more 7-10 point stretches in each 5 game chunk.. but parity being what it is... that's very tough to do consistently unless you are a very elite team with very good depth at every position.

St. Louis' defense alone takes a bull-sized crap all over ours.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

teams go through tough stretches all the time

the Avs lost 5 in a row this year including going 1-5-1 at one point

Vegas lost 5 in a row

Calgary lost 5 in a row and posted a goalless drought record

SJ has now lost 5 in a row

we all know Dallas' start

Boston has lost 4 in a row

not saying the Oilers are better or worse than these teams but showing that every team goes through adversity...the key here is to stop the losses as fast as possible and go on a streak (like Calgary, Colorado, Vegas etc...)

 

[nexttothemoon]

St. Louis' defense alone takes a bull-sized crap all over ours.

Good for them... they are 2 pts up on the Oilers and just shit the bed to the tune of 5-2 vs a Buffalo team that outshot them and outplayed them... the same team that the Oilers limited to 22 shots and who squeaked out a 3-2 OT win vs the Oilers where it was a coin flip... whereas the StLou-Buff game was never in question.

Game before that the Blues bull-filled defense shit the bed on home ice 5-2 vs the Leafs.

Game before that their defensive powerhouse of a team was shit on to the tune of 3-0 by the Penguins.

They've been outscored 13-4 in their last 3 games... not so great for a defensive juggernaut huh.

Point being, it's obviously a competitive, parity filled league and good/decent teams (like the Oilers and Blues) will go on these losing streaks from time to time where they underperform when they play other good teams who are also trying to put up 2 pts and make the playoffs.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Good for them... they are 2 pts up on the Oilers and just **** the bed to the tune of 5-2 vs a Buffalo team that outshot them and outplayed them... the same team that the Oilers limited to 22 shots and who squeaked out a 3-2 OT win vs the Oilers where it was a coin flip... whereas the StLou-Buff game was never in question.

Yeah? Did the Blues get shat on by the Ottawa Senators at home?

And of course let's not forget when the Oilers last played the Blues... Got wrecked at home.
The Oilers are not the Blues, not even close. If the special teams don't play at their best the Oilers don't win. They're starting to regress to where they were last year.

And for all the love the PK gets, it's actually terrible in Edmonton.

Oh, and if Koskinen/Smith are regressing back to their mean... Well, goodbye playoffs.

 

[nexttothemoon]

Yeah? Did the Blues get shat on by the Ottawa Senators at home?

And of course let's not forget when the Oilers last played the Blues... Got wrecked at home.
The Oilers are not the Blues, not even close. If the special teams don't play at their best the Oilers don't win. They're starting to regress to where they were last year.

And for all the love the PK gets, it's actually terrible in Edmonton.

Oh, and if Koskinen/Smith are regressing back to their mean... Well, goodbye playoffs.

...and Ottawa just shat on the Bruins... so what if it wasn't on home ice... road/home losses count the same in the standings.

Oilers have 10 road wins... only Washington, Colorado and Arizona have more. They are hanging in there vs teams that are obviously looking to make the playoffs as well.


Lots of ifs/and/buts... look at the standings though... the Oilers are hanging around and are a competitive team at the top of their division. I know some people will be happier if the Oilers are in 15th and they can say "I told you so"... but infuriating for many here... they are playing better than that and will be in the playoff mix all season long.

PK is part of the team... PP is part of a team... goalies are part of the team... you can't just hand wave them away and say if if if they weren't playing well... they'd be losing more games... well sure, but that's not the case... and they are winning some games because some parts of the team are playing well... that's a good thing.

If everything was clicking for this team (better bottom 6 scoring... better 5 on 5 play) they'd be elite and have close to 50 pts and did anyone here really expect that this season... that they'd have zero holes and be strong in every area?

 

[nexttothemoon]

teams go through tough stretches all the time

the Avs lost 5 in a row this year including going 1-5-1 at one point

Vegas lost 5 in a row

Calgary lost 5 in a row and posted a goalless drought record

SJ has now lost 5 in a row

we all know Dallas' start

Boston has lost 4 in a row

not saying the Oilers are better or worse than these teams but showing that every team goes through adversity...the key here is to stop the losses as fast as possible and go on a streak (like Calgary, Colorado, Vegas etc...)

Yep... and this next game vs the Wild I view as being a strong test of that level of resilience once again. Will they finally lose 3 games in a row or will they bounce back vs another team that's playing decently and will be trying to win just as hard as the Oilers?

Of course some will say the Wild are just another weak team out of the playoffs currently so a win wouldn't even count because that's another poor team.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

...and Ottawa just shat on the Bruins.. so what if it wasn't on home ice... road/home losses count the same in the standings.

Oilers have 10 road wins... only Washington, Colorado and Arizoan have more. They are hanging in there vs teams that are obviously looking to make the playoffs as well.


Lots of ifs/and/buts... look at the standings though... the Oilers are hanging around and are a competitive team at the top of their division. I know some people will be happier if the Oilers are in 15th and they can say "I told you so"... but infuriating for many here... they are playing better than that and will be in the playoff mix all season long.

Yeah I don't think the two combatants in the SCF last year have much to worry about, especially compared to a team that wasn't even close last year in a pretty weak conference.

They are a good road team. Unfortunately they have a lot of home games this month. And they already blew the easy part of this month's schedule. They play Toronto (who they never beat) after tonight then go into Dallas and St. Louis next week. Not too optimistic about those games.

The standings don't tell the whole story, but they do tell us that the Oilers aren't that far above the cutoff line. They also tell us that Calgary is merely two points back, Arizona is tied, Vegas is three points back and the Canucks a not-so-distant six. It's also worth pointing out they don't have games in hand on anyone.

They've been playing extremely mediocre since the hot start and not once in the four game homestand did they look like a playoff team. Two losses to teams that played the night before (and lost), one win they scraped out against a pretty weak Kings team, and then they completely crapped the bed against the Canes.

And stop with the bolded shit. Nobody is happy about the way things are going lately.

 

[nexttothemoon]

Yeah I don't think the two combatants in the SCF last year have much to worry about, especially compared to a team that wasn't even close last year in a pretty weak conference.

They are a good road team. Unfortunately they have a lot of home games this month. And they already blew the easy part of this month's schedule. They play Toronto (who they never beat) after tonight then go into Dallas and St. Louis next week. Not too optimistic about those games.

The standings don't tell the whole story, but they do tell us that the Oilers aren't that far above the cutoff line. They also tell us that Calgary is merely two points back, Arizona is tied, Vegas is three points back and the Canucks a not-so-distant six. It's also worth pointing out they don't have games in hand on anyone.

They've been playing extremely mediocre since the hot start and not once in the four game homestand did they look like a playoff team. Two losses to teams that played the night before (and lost), one win they scraped out against a pretty weak Kings team, and then they completely crapped the bed against the Canes.

And stop with the bolded ****. Nobody is happy about the way things are going lately.

The difference is that guys like you are pointing out every flaw and even when they win it's comments like "scraped by", "goalie saved the game", "McDrai carried them on their backs", "PP won the game... rest of team was shit", "PK won the game... rest of team was shit", "won vs a weak team on back to backs" etc etc... a tired litany of whiny excuses even after wins.

There's always a bitchy, whiny excuse that they aren't good enough to be a playoff team... when they are actually competitive and staying in playoff contention at the top of their division... which is irritating and infuriating for some here.. they want to be right and see the team out of the playoff picture more than they want the team to win and make the playoffs.

 

[ElysiumAB]

Of course some will say the Wild are just another weak team out of the playoffs currently so a win wouldn't even count because that's another poor team.

Anyone who says that should be reminded this Oilers team lost to a Red Wings team that is, in some categories, on pace to be HISTORICALLY bad.

Those would be a nice two points to have right now.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

The difference is that guys like you are pointing out every flaw and even when they win it's comments like "scraped by", "goalie saved the game", "McDrai carried them on their backs", "PP won the game... rest of team was ****", "PK won the game... rest of team was ****", "won vs a weak team on back to backs" etc etc... a tired litany of whiny excuses even after wins.

There's always a *****y, whiny excuse that they aren't good enough to be a playoff team... when they are actually competitive and staying in playoff contention at the top of their division... which is irritating and infuriating for some here.. they want to be right and see the team out of the playoff picture more than they want the team to win and make the playoffs.

They beat the Kings. It's good that they won. It's also fair to point out that they didn't really look that good doing it. And those habits carried forward to the next two games, which they did not win.

Yes, the Oilers are at the top of the division... Do you think they're going to remain there the entire season if they keep putting forth bad efforts? I'll give the Oilers credit when they play a good game and beat their opponent. They have not played a good game in at least a week (the last Canucks game was a fairly solid effort, their last really good game was in Vegas).

Hell, when they beat the Sharks in San Jose a few weeks ago I called it a statement win. ...Then they proceeded to get the shit kicked out of them in LA. Thankfully they redeemed that thought with back to back wins in Vegas/Arizona.

But the point is that they have not been good lately, especially at home. They cannot string wins together. They can't take advantage of teams that should be tired. I'm not saying they can't make the playoffs, but if they don't start playing consistently good hockey they will fall out of a playoff spot. There are worrying trends whether or not you like them. James Neal has stopped scoring at a torrid pace, and his ES numbers are ugly. Smith's goaltending is starting to look suspect. The PK numbers at home are becoming something to be concerned about (78%). Larsson continues to look like a shell of his former self while Klefbom is starting to struggle on the defensive end of the puck.

And it's not exactly hyperbole to say that unless McDavid and/or Draisatl contribute, they don't win. 22 straight losses if neither registers a point.

This isn't a movie we haven't seen before. We saw it as recently as last year when Hitchcock took over. A torrid start followed by normalization and it ended with no playoffs. This team needs a good stretch of hockey. Not more of this "Win 2, lose 2" stuff. Not saying they need to rip off 10 in a row (as nice as that would be), but they need to start winning 7 out of 10 instead of 4 or 5.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Terrified.

 

[BlueCheeseWithWings]

With the Leafs here on Saturday, very. It had a great change of being an ugly game.

 

[McJadeddog]

We are a bottom-10 team by the end of season. No question in my mind.

 

[The Panther]

Yes, the losses to Detroit and Ottawa are ugly. (At least Ottawa is kind of surging lately, but what's their excuse for losing to Detroit?)

In my life situation and at my age, I'm somewhat past the point of caring whether my hockey team wins or loses anymore. So, no, I'm not scared. I mostly cheer for my favorite players around the League (McDavid and Draisaitl near the top of that list), and the team results seem secondary to me now.

It's just a sad fact of life now about the NHL that a thread-thin line separates team #3 from team #27, and if you're anywhere within that pack (which the Oilers are, right now), then the two factors that largely determine whether you ultimately make the playoffs and/or have success or not are (1) free-agent signings and (2) draft / development luck.

In the Oilers' case, free agents generally don't want to go to Edmonton, so they're screwed on that. And, since 1982, the franchise's drafting record is atrocious.

Thus, we're stuck in this endless Groundhog Day cycle of mediocre ineptitude.
2015-16: The Oilers were "Kid McDavid, Hall and some trash, with a lack of depth"....
2019-20: The Oilers are now "Peak McDavid, Draisaitl and some trash with a lack of depth".

But this is how it shall ever be in a salary-cap League where free agents don't particularly want to play in Edmonton (unless they're slightly washed up, like Gagner and Chiasson).

 

[ElysiumAB]

This got real faster than I could've imagined.

Coyotes have taken over first place in the division, and the Oilers now have the same record as the Flames.

Going to be some very interesting times ahead.

Show us what you've got boys.

 

[Aceboogie]

The Oilers hot start was largely just getting a ton of lucky bounces, coupled with McDrai playing out of their minds. The underlying numbers were still alarming.

The team didnt really fill any holes int he offseason, so for them to finish just out of the playoffs is still a success (expecting bottom 7ish). Glad we had to start of the season and a good 2 months of entertainment, but I dont think the upcoming months will be all that fun.

Hopefully this offseason we can actually make some good improvements

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

We could be 3 games into a 10 game losing skid.

Sat - Toronto
Mon - Dallas on the road
Wed - StL on the road
Fri - Pittsburgh
Sat - Montreal
Mon - Vancouver on the road and the end of a 3 in 4

Then the Flames after we return from Christmas break and we all know how we play after a break.

This could be getting very very ugly very very fast.

 

[Mc5RingsAndABeer]

In retrospect there were some excellent posts in this thread.

At least 60% of our fanbase knew better than to believe in the Oilers.

 

[space321]

I saw this coming since Chiarelli traded Hall, so no, I'm not scared.

 

[tardigrade81]

We could be 3 games into a 10 game losing skid.

Sat - Toronto
Mon - Dallas on the road
Wed - StL on the road
Fri - Pittsburgh
Sat - Montreal
Mon - Vancouver on the road and the end of a 3 in 4

Then the Flames after we return from Christmas break and we all know how we play after a break.

This could be getting very very ugly very very fast.

The lack of offense is terrifying. Give us the best goalie in the game and I still doubt it makes a difference

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

The lack of offense is terrifying. Give us the best goalie in the game and I still doubt it makes a difference

Oh it gets even better. We are already 2 games into a losing streak and here is what is coming up:

Rangers on New Years Eve. We haven't won a New Years eve game in 35 years.
Boston, Buffalo, Toronto, Montreal on an Eastern road swing. We never do well in these 4 cities outside of the odd win in Montreal.
Calgary on the road at the end of this 4 game eastern road swing.
Nashville at home after a long road trip, we dont do well vs Nashville and dont do well back at home on the first game of a long road trip.
Arizona after a 3 day break. We dont do well after 3 day breaks and dont do well against Arizona.
10 day break then Calgary at home. We dont do well after long breaks and we get the same team who embarrassed us after the Christmas break.
St Louis and we never do well against St Louis.
Calgary in Cowshit town on the 2nd of a back to back. May have a chance here as we seem to win these 2nd of back to backs.
Arizona on the road where we always lose.
Sharks at home, glimmer of hope.
Nashville at home and again they always eat our lunch.

So in the next 14 games, the way we are playing with the roster we have, we could be seeing 2, maybe 3 wins and maybe a loser point or two. We will be lucky to get 6 points out of our next 14 games meaning we will be firmly entrenched in 7th or 8th in the Pacific by the time the February schedule really kicks in.

 

[tardigrade81]

Oh it gets even better. We are already 2 games into a losing streak and here is what is coming up:

Rangers on New Years Eve. We haven't won a New Years eve game in 35 years.
Boston, Buffalo, Toronto, Montreal on an Eastern road swing. We never do well in these 4 cities outside of the odd win in Montreal.
Calgary on the road at the end of this 4 game eastern road swing.
Nashville at home after a long road trip, we dont do well vs Nashville and dont do well back at home on the first game of a long road trip.
Arizona after a 3 day break. We dont do well after 3 day breaks and dont do well against Arizona.
10 day break then Calgary at home. We dont do well after long breaks and we get the same team who embarrassed us after the Christmas break.
St Louis and we never do well against St Louis.
Calgary in Cow**** town on the 2nd of a back to back. May have a chance here as we seem to win these 2nd of back to backs.
Arizona on the road where we always lose.
Sharks at home, glimmer of hope.
Nashville at home and again they always eat our lunch.

So in the next 14 games, the way we are playing with the roster we have, we could be seeing 2, maybe 3 wins and maybe a loser point or two. We will be lucky to get 6 points out of our next 14 games meaning we will be firmly entrenched in 7th or 8th in the Pacific by the time the February schedule really kicks in.

That is honestly depressing, but I think you’re definitely right. This team has shown us nothing that they can turn this game around. Other than peppering Price the offense has been terrible the last 12 games. This team is flat out not a playoff team right now, let alone a top contender. Shuffling the lines can only do so much. Our top guys just aren’t scoring and the power play has been absolutely terrible.

Astonishing seeing a team start so red hot and then amount to this crap. My guess.... if they really crap the bed through these next 14 games there could be some major changes. Can’t see our top guys wanting to stay on this team if we are firmly out of a playoff spot this early in the year. Doesn’t bod well for the rest of the season. Such as life.

 

[Chabot84]

Yamamoto will save us