RD Ryan Merkley - Kunlun, KHL (2018, 21st, SJS; traded to COL, released) Part II

[Rabid Ranger]

So, we are exploring a trade = he is banned from camp?

He's not going to be back with the Petes-right?

 

[Dr Quincy]

He's not going to be back with the Petes-right?

Definitely not. The Petes said emphatically that it's best they part ways.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I just found that pick224.com tracks even strength goal differential for CHL players.

This season, Merkley’s EV GF% was 52.94%, and his EV GF% Rel was 8.01%.

Among 115 OHL defensemen with at least 50 games played, his EV GF% ranked 41st, and his EV GF% Rel ranked 6th.

This data isn’t available for seasons before 2018-2019, but I remember a big criticism of his in his draft year was his two-way play and his on-ice goal differential. @93LEAFS mentioned this in the past:

I also disagree with the logic Merkley is a good player. Despite his offensive skill, his presence on the ice has had a negative effect on Guelph's goals for. Everyone talks about his high-percentage of points, but ignores the fact for 2 years running, Guelph has a better goal differential at 5v5 when he is on the bench.

Not sure where he found this information, but I trust that it is true, and if it is, that shows that on the ice, Merkley made significant improvements to his 2-way game and improved his production rates despite being traded in the middle of the season.

So although it is concerning that he has rubbed people the wrong way off the ice, it is also encouraging that he has improved his play on the ice, and that’s something I don’t think enough people have given him credit for.

 

[Fogelhund]

I just found that pick224.com tracks even strength goal differential for CHL players.

This season, Merkley’s EV GF% was 52.94%, and his EV GF% Rel was 8.01%.

Among 115 OHL defensemen with at least 50 games played, his EV GF% ranked 41st, and his EV GF% Rel ranked 6th.

This data isn’t available for seasons before 2018-2019, but I remember a big criticism of his in his draft year was his two-way play and his on-ice goal differential. @93LEAFS mentioned this in the past:



Not sure where he found this information, but I trust that it is true, and if it is, that shows that on the ice, Merkley made significant improvements to his 2-way game and improved his production rates despite being traded in the middle of the season.

So although it is concerning that he has rubbed people the wrong way off the ice, it is also encouraging that he has improved his play on the ice, and that’s something I don’t think enough people have given him credit for.

Please show the data, from the prior year, to back up this claim. Thanks. What were his prior years EV GF% and EV GF% Rel?

 

[Mattb124]

He's not going to be back with the Petes-right?

...if they can trade him. If they cannot, well guess what.

Regardless, it still is not a ban.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Please show the data, from the prior year, to back up this claim. Thanks. What were his prior years EV GF% and EV GF% Rel?

I don't have his EV GF% and EV GF% Rel from prior years, unfortunately. That data is not available at pick224.com, which is where I got the information for this year's numbers.

I don't know his prior year's GF% and GF% Rel, but I am assuming that his GF% rel was negative, since 93Leafs said that "for 2 years running, Guelph has a better goal differential at 5v5 when he is on the bench." Here is another post where he says something similar:

D Ryan Merkley - Peterborough Petes, OHL (2018, 21st, SJS)

He can put up a bunch of points while generally being a detriment to his team (he has a negative GF% relative to his team). He needs to learn to put up similar points while not being one.

Just searching Twitter, other people seem to be saying this too:

 

[Fogelhund]

SO, you are looking at stats, making assumptions, where there are no stats... have you even watched the player much?

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

SO, you are looking at stats, making assumptions, where there are no stats... have you even watched the player much?

Um, 93Leafs said that his GF% was negative relative to his teammates. I trust that he is correct. Is that really an assumption?

 

[Fogelhund]

Um, 93Leafs said that his GF% was negative relative to his teammates. I trust that he is correct. Is that really an assumption?

@93LEAFS can comment on that.

So, you haven't even watched the player then?

 

[Brew]

@93LEAFS can comment on that.

So, you haven't even watched the player then?

You don't read well, do you.

 

[93LEAFS]

Um, 93Leafs said that his GF% was negative relative to his teammates. I trust that he is correct. Is that really an assumption?

@93LEAFS can comment on that.

So, you haven't even watched the player then?

It was from Prospect-Stats. Which has now gone under due to the fact the person who ran it was hired by the LA Kings.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

It appears the data is still available here: Tableau Public

2016-2017: 39.68% GF, -0.63% GF Rel
2017-2018: 43.65% GF, -0.73% GF Rel
2018-2019: 53.52% GF, 3.52% GF Rel

The numbers here are slightly different than the numbers in my posts above because these are 5-on-5, while the numbers posted above were even strength. His estimated primary scoring rates have also improved:

2016-2017: 1.356 P1/60
2017-2018: 1.3 P1/60
2018-2019: 1.469 P1/60

However, his quality of teammates relative to quality of competition has also improved.

2016-2017: QoT GF: 42.46%, QoC GF: 53.25%
2017-2018: QoT GF: 43.6%, QoC GF: 51.17%
2018-2019: QoT GF: 52.52%, QoC GF: 50.15% GF

So, his external circumstances did help him. However, given the fact that his team-relative numbers improved heavily, the primary improvement was still with his play.

@93LEAFS can comment on that.

So, you haven't even watched the player then?

No, I haven't. But given his statistical improvements across the board, it's pretty clear that his game improved this season.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

It appears the data is still available here: Tableau Public

2016-2017: 39.68% GF, -0.63% GF Rel
2017-2018: 43.65% GF, -0.73% GF Rel
2018-2019: 53.52% GF, 3.52% GF Rel

The numbers here are slightly different than the numbers in my posts above because these are 5-on-5, while the numbers posted above were even strength. His estimated primary scoring rates have also improved:

2016-2017: 1.356 P1/60
2017-2018: 1.3 P1/60
2018-2019: 1.469 P1/60

However, his quality of teammates relative to quality of competition has also improved.

2016-2017: QoT GF: 42.46%, QoC GF: 53.25%
2017-2018: QoT GF: 43.6%, QoC GF: 51.17%
2018-2019: QoT GF: 52.52%, QoC GF: 50.15% GF

So, his external circumstances did help him. However, given the fact that his team-relative numbers improved heavily, the primary improvement was still with his play.



No, I haven't. But given his statistical improvements across the board, it's pretty clear that his game improved this season.

That's what the stats say.

It's also very possible the coach instructed his team to play a more conservative style to better insulate Merkley while he is on the ice, or in general because he felt his team wasn't as good as other teams to play a run and gun style.

 

[Fogelhund]

No, I haven't. But given his statistical improvements across the board, it's pretty clear that his game improved this season.

So, you didn't watch him play at all, but concluded, without context he's improved. What improved were his stats. That's all you can conclude. No idea of usage, zone starts, how sheltered he was, all of which are critical to understand if his play actually improved.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

It appears the data is still available here: Tableau Public

2016-2017: 39.68% GF, -0.63% GF Rel
2017-2018: 43.65% GF, -0.73% GF Rel
2018-2019: 53.52% GF, 3.52% GF Rel

The numbers here are slightly different than the numbers in my posts above because these are 5-on-5, while the numbers posted above were even strength. His estimated primary scoring rates have also improved:

2016-2017: 1.356 P1/60
2017-2018: 1.3 P1/60
2018-2019: 1.469 P1/60

However, his quality of teammates relative to quality of competition has also improved.

2016-2017: QoT GF: 42.46%, QoC GF: 53.25%
2017-2018: QoT GF: 43.6%, QoC GF: 51.17%
2018-2019: QoT GF: 52.52%, QoC GF: 50.15% GF

So, his external circumstances did help him. However, given the fact that his team-relative numbers improved heavily, the primary improvement was still with his play.



No, I haven't. But given his statistical improvements across the board, it's pretty clear that his game improved this season.

...and yet the team still wants him gone. That's the point. More than likely he'll get another shot with yet another OHL team and then the Sharks can figure out what to do with him. Maybe he'll have matured by then.

 

[snipes]

So, you didn't watch him play at all, but concluded, without context he's improved. What improved were his stats. That's all you can conclude. No idea of usage, zone starts, how sheltered he was, all of which are critical to understand if his play actually improved.

You’ve read his opinions on Draisaitl based purely on spreadsheets.

Anyways, Wilson is a well respected hockey man, he’ll pull some strings in the OHL and find Merkley a team.

 

[Mach85]

Any Guelph/Peterborough fans in the house? I have two OHL teams I follow and both are in Guelph's division so I've seen a decent amount of Merkley, at least until his move out east. He looked similar to me last year: making fantastic passes only he can make, nice edgework and agility in the offensive zone, but also blown defensive assignments and a general lack of engagement defensively, especially when plays don't go his way. Turnovers. I haven't seen him enough to comment on whether he's improved over the last couple years, but I didn't notice much of a difference when I did see him.

 

[lomiller1]

It appears the data is still available here: Tableau Public

2016-2017: 39.68% GF, -0.63% GF Rel
2017-2018: 43.65% GF, -0.73% GF Rel
2018-2019: 53.52% GF, 3.52% GF Rel

According to this same link Merkley’s fellow PBO D-man Declan Chisholm (another 2018 pick) had a GF% of 64.6% and a Rel GF% of 23.9.

 

[Patty Ice]

You’ve read his opinions on Draisaitl based purely on spreadsheets.

Anyways, Wilson is a well respected hockey man, he’ll pull some strings in the OHL and find Merkley a team.

Thats what I am thinking. Give his old buddy Kilrea a call and see what he can pull some strings with the 67s. Not that hopeful though haha.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

So, you didn't watch him play at all, but concluded, without context he's improved. What improved were his stats. That's all you can conclude. No idea of usage, zone starts, how sheltered he was, all of which are critical to understand if his play actually improved.

I literally posted context: quality of teammates and quality of competition, and mentioned that those factors did help him.

Having said that, he played more 5V5 TOI/GP than any other player on either of his teams, and it’s pretty much impossible to shelter a player who plays that many minutes. Beyond that, the impact of zone starts on performance is massively overstated.

You’ve read his opinions on Draisaitl based purely on spreadsheets.

Anyways, Wilson is a well respected hockey man, he’ll pull some strings in the OHL and find Merkley a team.

Lmao

Maybe Merkley just needs to sleep on some outdoor rinks in Western Canada to take his game to the next level.

 

[snipes]

I literally posted context: quality of teammates and quality of competition, and mentioned that those factors did help him.

Having said that, he played more 5V5 TOI/GP than any other player on either of his teams, and it’s pretty much impossible to shelter a player who plays that many minutes. Beyond that, the impact of zone starts on performance is massively overstated.



Lmao

Maybe Merkley just needs to sleep on some outdoor rinks in Western Canada to take his game to the next level.

I laughed bro.

Good line, I’m glad you caught it.

 

[gifted88]

Any Guelph/Peterborough fans in the house?

I'm from Guelph and watch them often.

He was actually better last year at getting back when the puck was on his side of the ice, but still gave half efforts when the puck was on the other side. Also as you said, when he coughs up the puck or makes a dumb pass, he stays still and just watches plays go up ice still.

 

[Fogelhund]

OHLInsiders
@OHLinsiders
·
1h
#OHL A little Merkley update all the way from Flowerpot Island in Tobermory: Petes still asking for 2 2nd Round Picks for Ryan Merkley. Claim they have teams interested. We'll see

 

[gifted88]

Has Merkley or anyone representing him spoken out about the character issues?

 

[Peasy]

Has Merkley or anyone representing him spoken out about the character issues?

This article from the athletic has a few quotes about the situation.
Sharks prospects Ryan Merkley and Mario Ferraro could be...

“After we analyzed everything we just felt it wasn’t the right fit,” Petes GM Mike Oke told the Peterborough Examiner.
Petes head coach Rob Wilson said: “Ryan came in and did a good job for us. I know there are things said, but I had no issues with Ryan. He was well-liked by his teammates, his billet, the coaching staff. There wasn’t anything major. The fact is, from both parties, we just think the fit might be better somewhere else. That’s it. There is really nothing more.”

“I had no idea,” he said Saturday. “I was working out with (Petes captain Zach) Gallant every day at 6:30 in the morning. Full expectation to be back with them. … It came as a shock to me. (At the) year-end meetings I was told I was coming back, I was going to be a relied-on guy. I thought we ended off well, but they want to move in a different direction, I guess.”

“Wherever he plays we’ll work with him. He’ll be fine,” Burke said. “It’s happened a lot of times with a lot of guys, we’re not worried about that. Just trying to get as much into him the next couple weeks as we can.”