Appeal to authority is a dangerous thing. "NHL teams dedicate entire staffs, tons of resources and energy into scouting players" to then end up picking
D Erik Gudbranson 3rd
D Dylan McIlrath 10th
D Duncan Siemens 11th
D Griffin Reinhart 4th
D Slater Koekkoek 10th
D Sam Morin 11th
F Michael Dal Colle 5th
D Haydn Fleury 7th
These are just notable top-11 picks from 2010 to 2015 (i.e. long enough in the past to predict with relative certainty where their careers are going). And you'll notice a common theme: 8 out of 9 on that list are defencemen. D-men are hard to get in the NHL, so teams end up reaching for them. And even though they "dedicate entire staffs, tons of resources and energy" into that project, they often miss.
Now, this doesn't mean the scouting staffs and GMs are entirely bad – it's obviously just incredibly difficult to predict the future of teenagers. But, and this is the important thing, you also can't say NHL teams are more trustworthy than public sources only based on the fact that they're NHL teams.
Of course, there are differences between lists, though. As much as I respect anyone who scouts an entire draft class on their own, you can't trust individual lists as much as teams or scouting services. It takes at the very least 5 games (rather 10) to accurately understand a player's skill set and potential. It's impossible to get that live from an entire draft class. If you're only watching video, I'd still say it's impossible but at least more likely. But if you're only watching video, that's another reason to trust the list less than those that have watched the players live.
So as much as I love reading Button's, Pronman's, Wheeler's, and whoever else's lists, I don't
trust them because I know they can't possibly have watched the players enough. And most of the ones they did see live in a season were at international tournaments.
But I definitely trust HockeyProspect, Future Considerations, and ISS with their opinions because they all have large staffs around the world that go out and watch the players. And I absolutely do not trust NHL teams more simply based on the fact that they're NHL teams. Whether or not you get to work for an NHL team is like 80% connections, 10% luck and 10% actual scouting skill and knowledge.
Out of those three services, HP had Seider the highest. And, correct me if I'm wrong
@Mark Edwards, I believe Mark thinks more like NHL clubs in the sense that he'll say if you want a big, right-shot, two-way defenceman, you have to draft him, and that's why Seider was ranked 10th. But if you're simply going by upside, they all agree that Seider is not a top-10 player and especially not top-6. And considering they actually have scouts that have seen Seider live many times, just like the NHL teams, I think that's extremely valid and it's entirely fair to believe Seider was not a consensus top-6 pick in the NHL either. But, as always, it only takes one team to really like a player and go off the board.
