RD Moritz Seider (2019, 6th, DET)

[Rydgar]

Juolevi...

He was playing in the CHL when he got drafted. London Knights I believe.

 

[Frk It]

Appeal to authority is a dangerous thing. "NHL teams dedicate entire staffs, tons of resources and energy into scouting players" to then end up picking

D Erik Gudbranson 3rd
D Dylan McIlrath 10th
D Duncan Siemens 11th
D Griffin Reinhart 4th
D Slater Koekkoek 10th
D Sam Morin 11th
F Michael Dal Colle 5th
D Haydn Fleury 7th

These are just notable top-11 picks from 2010 to 2015 (i.e. long enough in the past to predict with relative certainty where their careers are going). And you'll notice a common theme: 8 out of 9 on that list are defencemen. D-men are hard to get in the NHL, so teams end up reaching for them. And even though they "dedicate entire staffs, tons of resources and energy" into that project, they often miss.

Now, this doesn't mean the scouting staffs and GMs are entirely bad – it's obviously just incredibly difficult to predict the future of teenagers. But, and this is the important thing, you also can't say NHL teams are more trustworthy than public sources only based on the fact that they're NHL teams.

Of course, there are differences between lists, though. As much as I respect anyone who scouts an entire draft class on their own, you can't trust individual lists as much as teams or scouting services. It takes at the very least 5 games (rather 10) to accurately understand a player's skill set and potential. It's impossible to get that live from an entire draft class. If you're only watching video, I'd still say it's impossible but at least more likely. But if you're only watching video, that's another reason to trust the list less than those that have watched the players live.

So as much as I love reading Button's, Pronman's, Wheeler's, and whoever else's lists, I don't trust them because I know they can't possibly have watched the players enough. And most of the ones they did see live in a season were at international tournaments.

But I definitely trust HockeyProspect, Future Considerations, and ISS with their opinions because they all have large staffs around the world that go out and watch the players. And I absolutely do not trust NHL teams more simply based on the fact that they're NHL teams. Whether or not you get to work for an NHL team is like 80% connections, 10% luck and 10% actual scouting skill and knowledge.

Out of those three services, HP had Seider the highest. And, correct me if I'm wrong @Mark Edwards, I believe Mark thinks more like NHL clubs in the sense that he'll say if you want a big, right-shot, two-way defenceman, you have to draft him, and that's why Seider was ranked 10th.But if you're simply going by upside, they all agree that Seider is not a top-10 playerand especially not top-6. And considering they actually have scouts that have seen Seider live many times, just like the NHL teams, I think that's extremely valid and it's entirely fair to believe Seider was not a consensus top-6 pick in the NHL either. But, as always, it only takes one team to really like a player and go off the board.

How can you say hockeyprospect.com had him ranked 10th, and then in your next sentence say that no scouting service considers him top 10...???

 

[Legend123]

Exactly. In recent years, every defenseman drafted out of Europe in the Top 10 I can think of has succeeded (Dahlin, Heiskanen, Ristolainen, etc.)

way too small of a sample size. From 2013 to 18, only, what?, 2 were drafted in the top 10 and have played in the NHL?

 

[HisNoodliness]

How can you say hockeyprospect.com had him ranked 10th, and then in your next sentence say that no scouting service considers him top 10...???

I think he's saying that Seider is the 10th best prospect but doesn't have the 10th highest upside. His high floor makes him a top 10 prospect even if his ceiling doesn't.

I'm not sure I agree though

 

[Frk It]

I think he's saying that Seider is the 10th best prospect but doesn't have the 10th highest upside. His high floor makes him a top 10 prospect even if his ceiling doesn't.

I'm not sure I agree though

But based on what?

I purchased the Black Book, and I don’t see this separate “upside ranking” this poster is alluding to.

I imagine they ranked him #10 because they think he’s the 10th best prospect. Not because he’s big and right handed.

 

[HisNoodliness]

But based on what?

I purchased the Black Book, and I don’t see this separate “upside ranking” this poster is alluding to.

I imagine they ranked him #10 because they think he’s the 10th best prospect. Not because he’s big and right handed.

I agree with you honestly, was just clearing up the thought process. I really don't see Seider as a low upside pick. Maybe he doesn't have a crazy-high offensive ceiling, but his all around game could be phenomenal. He's also relatively unknown and is risky for that reason. I have to imagine he was the least viewed top 10 pick.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Was drafted out of London...

He was playing in the CHL when he got drafted. London Knights I believe.

When he said drafted out of Europe I assumed he was referring to nationality. My bad if not.

 

[Stive Morgan]

When he said drafted out of Europe I assumed he was referring to nationality. My bad if not.

Yeah I meant European leagues, not nationality. I should have clarified, not your fault.

 

[Killerjas]

This kid oozes high Hockey IQ. He is skilled with the puck and pretty much was the best player at the Development Camp. Easily adjusted playing with men in the DEL and on the national stage. Great pick and I see him as a future 1st Line Defender.

 

[pgfan66]

But based on what?

I purchased the Black Book, and I don’t see this separate “upside ranking” this poster is alluding to.

I imagine they ranked him #10 because they think he’s the 10th best prospect. Not because he’s big and right handed.

I think you’re misunderstanding. What I’m saying is that I don’t believe that the guys at HP think that, if we look back at the draft 5 years from now, Seider will be the 10th best player in his class. However, they think he is the second-best defenceman, and based on the fact that he’s a defenceman (and a right shot at that), they ranked him in the top 10. Because D-men are much more difficult to acquire via trade or free agency than forwards. They’re just very hard to come by.

But even if HP indeed saw him as the 10th best prospect, the point still stands: None of the services I trust had Seider ranked nearly as high as he went.

 

[TCNorthstars]

So he wasn't picked 6/7 spots ahead of fan expectation like you claimed.

NHL teams which have "manpower and funds" ranked Makar #4 in Bob McKenzie's list. Seider was ranked #16 in McKenzie's list. There's no comparison here.

I know that McKenzie's list is seen as the gospel, but we have to remember it is 10 scouts. 10 scouts out of how many in the league?

 

[Andrei79]

This "off the board" and "reach" garbage really needs to die.


He has excellent tools and a toolbox, enough to justify a high pick on him. Like any pick, it might not succeed, but his lower rankings were based on a being drafted out of a league that's not a common one for high picks. His play, however, was excellent in a pro league that notoriously employs older players, players with years of pro experience.


His development from his early games into late in the season was phenominal.

 

[drw02]

Get the feeling Seider will go back to Mannheim for another year mostly due to the D overload in Grand Rapids. Kaski, Lindstrom, Saarijarvi, and McIlrath just too many RHD. Tho if they really feel like he's ready and want to expedite him they'll obviously make room which is what I hope happens. With his IQ and physical maturity he's ready for it imo

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

This "off the board" and "reach" garbage really needs to die.


He has excellent tools and a toolbox, enough to justify a high pick on him. Like any pick, it might not succeed, but his lower rankings were based on a being drafted out of a league that's not a common one for high picks. His play, however, was excellent in a pro league that notoriously employs older players, players with years of pro experience.


His development from his early games into late in the season was phenominal.

Are you trying to say the NHL scouts know more than the HF posters who have never seen a DEL game in their life?

Quite the hot take

 

[Frk It]

However, they think he is the second-best defenceman, and based on the fact that he’s a defenceman (and a right shot at that), they ranked him in the top 10. Because D-men are much more difficult to acquire via trade or free agency than forwards. They’re just very hard to come by.

Why would they care he’s the 2nd best defenseman? They are a scouting service. Their job is to rank the best prospects. They aren’t a team drafting for need.

 

[Jacob]

This "off the board" and "reach" garbage really needs to die.


He has excellent tools and a toolbox, enough to justify a high pick on him. Like any pick, it might not succeed, but his lower rankings were based on a being drafted out of a league that's not a common one for high picks. His play, however, was excellent in a pro league that notoriously employs older players, players with years of pro experience.


His development from his early games into late in the season was phenominal.

I don't even like Seider as a prospect and I agree he wasn't a reach there. I can see why the Wings like him and why he likely wouldn't have fallen far if they had picked someone else.

 

[Merrrlin]

Did Yzerman technically oversee this pick?

 

[Christien]

Did Yzerman technically oversee this pick?

Yes. Yzerman has seen him play a lot, but not as much as Wright and Hakan Andersson I believe. Hakan has seem him the most though out of everyone.

 

[Merrrlin]

Yes. Yzerman has seen him play a lot, but not as much as Wright and Hakan Andersson I believe. Hakan has seem him the most though out of everyone.

In that case, I find it hard to disagree with. I trust Stevie's eye more than almost any other GM in the league.

 

[NickH8]

I like what I've heard these couple of weeks about how he may have more upside than at first glance, but us Wings fans have to be careful about reaching for upside in certain parts of his game where there may not be a lot. I think defensively he could play in the NHL as soon as 2021, but I think the best route is to develop his offense in the CHL for a year, then AHL, then NHL. Maybe if we do that he could be a 40 point guy. If we keep him in the pro leagues I don't see an offensive game developing as much because he'll constantly be focused on defense just to stay on the roster. 30 points would be his offensive upside if that's the case. Either way I think he'll be really good in his own end and a legitimate top 4 defenseman.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Did Yzerman technically oversee this pick?

I believe they said Yzerman was watching him as early as December.

 

[ForeverHabs97]

This kid oozes high Hockey IQ. He is skilled with the puck and pretty much was the best player at the Development Camp. Easily adjusted playing with men in the DEL and on the national stage. Great pick and I see him as a future 1 Line Defender.

I like what I've heard these couple of weeks about how he may have more upside than at first glance, but us Wings fans have to be careful about reaching for upside in certain parts of his game where there may not be a lot. I think defensively he could play in the NHL as soon as 2021, but I think the best route is to develop his offense in the CHL for a year, then AHL, then NHL. Maybe if we do that he could be a 40 point guy. If we keep him in the pro leagues I don't see an offensive game developing as much because he'll constantly be focused on defense just to stay on the roster. 30 points would be his offensive upside if that's the case. Either way I think he'll be really good in his own end and a legitimate top 4 defenseman.

This was far from a reach. This was picking a player you didn't want to risk trading down for, so you make sure you get him at your pick.

If you go for a D in the 5 to top 15 of the draft, you go for a Werenski/McAvoy kind of 2-way D with top pairing/top 4 defenceman.

From these quotes, it seems like Detroit selected a defenceman with top 4/Top 2 D upside as a 2-way defenceman. He was a riser throughout the year and was slated in the Top 15. Risers in draft years often end up damn high. Koktaniemi, Seider, Drouin, Barrett Hayton etc.

Nothing left to be said about where he was drafted. It will be a win if he pans out like hes supposed to, end of story. You wanna talk about a reach? Talk to me about the Giants in the NFL picking a QB slated to go 2nd/3rd round 6TH OVERALL. Moving from ~15 to 6 isn't a enough of a reach to make a case for after the draft.

 

[ricky0034]

This was far from a reach. This was picking a player you didn't want to risk trading down for, so you make sure you get him at your pick.

If you go for a D in the 5 to top 15 of the draft, you go for a Werenski/McAvoy kind of 2-way D with top pairing/top 4 defenceman.

From these quotes, it seems like Detroit selected a defenceman with top 4/Top 2 D upside as a 2-way defenceman. He was a riser throughout the year and was slated in the Top 15. Risers in draft years often end up damn high. Koktaniemi, Seider, Drouin, Barrett Hayton etc.

Nothing left to be said about where he was drafted. It will be a win if he pans out like hes supposed to, end of story. You wanna talk about a reach? Talk to me about the Giants in the NFL picking a QB slated to go 2nd/3rd round 6TH OVERALL. Moving from ~15 to 6 isn't a enough of a reach to make a case for after the draft.

it's not a reach it's *definition of reach*?

 

[obey86]

In that case, I find it hard to disagree with. I trust Stevie's eye more than almost any other GM in the league.

"Stevie's eye" is mostly what his scouts tell him though, like with any GM.

 

[pgfan66]

Why would they care he’s the 2nd best defenseman? They are a scouting service. Their job is to rank the best prospects. They aren’t a team drafting for need.

Because they changed their approach this season. Mark said on radio they see themselves as an NHL team and that’s how they work. They obviously don’t have a roster to draft for need, but they still value a position higher if there are fewer high-end players on said position.