RD Moritz Seider (2019, 6th, DET)

[thelittlecoon]

Makar at 4 was probably picked 6/7 picks ahead of fan expectation too. And it later came out a team had him even ranked 1st. Fan ranking is more just reading publications that probably see guys like makar or seider 2/3 times a season live, just due to lack of manpower and funds. Nhl teams can watch a guy in their range all season long if they want and get into that nitty gritty.

Nah Makar was always seen as part of the top 4 with Hischier, Patrick, and Heiskanen, especially leading up to the draft. Not comparable to Seider at all.

 

[EXTRAS]

Nah Makar was always seen as part of the top 4 with Hischier, Patrick, and Heiskanen, especially leading up to the draft. Not comparable to Seider at all.

Lol...no he wasn't.

 

[thelittlecoon]

Lol...no he wasn't.

Yes he was... Canucks picked at 5th and it was pretty much set that we wouldn't be getting those 4 once all the rumours starting swirling weeks before the draft.

 

[EXTRAS]

Yes he was... Canucks picked at 5th and it was pretty much set that we wouldn't be getting those 4 once all the rumours starting swirling weeks before the draft.

Future considerations had him 7th.
McKeens had him 7th.
Jeff Marek of sportsnet had him 9th.
The hockey news had him 5th.

 

[McFlyingV]

Yes he was... Canucks picked at 5th and it was pretty much set that we wouldn't be getting those 4 once all the rumours starting swirling weeks before the draft.

Realized I quoted the wrong guy.

Makar was 4th on McKenzie's list.

 

[Siludin]

Makar was going higher in mock drafts because Dallas/Colorado/Vancouver were expected to draft one of Heiskanen or Makar because they needed defense (this was the season before the Canucks drafted Hughes)

 

[Petterssonic]

Future considerations had him 7th.
McKeens had him 7th.
Jeff Marek of sportsnet had him 9th.
The hockey news had him 5th.

This is much less of a reach than Seider.

 

[jvr32]

Future considerations had him 7th.
McKeens had him 7th.
Jeff Marek of sportsnet had him 9th.
The hockey news had him 5th.

So he wasn't picked 6/7 spots ahead of fan expectation like you claimed.

NHL teams which have "manpower and funds" ranked Makar #4 in Bob McKenzie's list. Seider was ranked #16 in McKenzie's list. There's no comparison here.

 

[pgfan66]

People get way to caught up in the public rankings. Just go look at the past years rankings, many players are way off relative to how the NHL teams actually draft in the 1st round. These rankings are simply estimations for the fans and media to have some type of understanding in order to follow the draft. NHL teams obviously dedicate entire staffs, tons of resources and energy into scouting these players. People around here should be able to distinguish the difference between the two.

Appeal to authority is a dangerous thing. "NHL teams dedicate entire staffs, tons of resources and energy into scouting players" to then end up picking

D Erik Gudbranson 3rd
D Dylan McIlrath 10th
D Duncan Siemens 11th
D Griffin Reinhart 4th
D Slater Koekkoek 10th
D Sam Morin 11th
F Michael Dal Colle 5th
D Haydn Fleury 7th

These are just notable top-11 picks from 2010 to 2015 (i.e. long enough in the past to predict with relative certainty where their careers are going). And you'll notice a common theme: 8 out of 9 on that list are defencemen. D-men are hard to get in the NHL, so teams end up reaching for them. And even though they "dedicate entire staffs, tons of resources and energy" into that project, they often miss.

Now, this doesn't mean the scouting staffs and GMs are entirely bad – it's obviously just incredibly difficult to predict the future of teenagers. But, and this is the important thing, you also can't say NHL teams are more trustworthy than public sources only based on the fact that they're NHL teams.

Of course, there are differences between lists, though. As much as I respect anyone who scouts an entire draft class on their own, you can't trust individual lists as much as teams or scouting services. It takes at the very least 5 games (rather 10) to accurately understand a player's skill set and potential. It's impossible to get that live from an entire draft class. If you're only watching video, I'd still say it's impossible but at least more likely. But if you're only watching video, that's another reason to trust the list less than those that have watched the players live.

So as much as I love reading Button's, Pronman's, Wheeler's, and whoever else's lists, I don't trust them because I know they can't possibly have watched the players enough. And most of the ones they did see live in a season were at international tournaments.

But I definitely trust HockeyProspect, Future Considerations, and ISS with their opinions because they all have large staffs around the world that go out and watch the players. And I absolutely do not trust NHL teams more simply based on the fact that they're NHL teams. Whether or not you get to work for an NHL team is like 80% connections, 10% luck and 10% actual scouting skill and knowledge.

Out of those three services, HP had Seider the highest. And, correct me if I'm wrong @Mark Edwards, I believe Mark thinks more like NHL clubs in the sense that he'll say if you want a big, right-shot, two-way defenceman, you have to draft him, and that's why Seider was ranked 10th. But if you're simply going by upside, they all agree that Seider is not a top-10 player and especially not top-6. And considering they actually have scouts that have seen Seider live many times, just like the NHL teams, I think that's extremely valid and it's entirely fair to believe Seider was not a consensus top-6 pick in the NHL either. But, as always, it only takes one team to really like a player and go off the board.

 

[raymond23]

We had our first look at him in Detroit during our 3v3 dev camp tourney last night. Here are some clips that I enjoyed. Definitely displayed some skill, composure and skating ability which was nice to see. We have a full scrimmage today which I am excited to attend!

#53 in White.

 

[raymond23]

A couple more:

 

[Debrincat93]

Lol...no he wasn't.

yes he was

 

[Debrincat93]

overall, pleased more with this pick. they went with the guy they think will help them the most in a position of need. Im not a big fan of drafting towards position of need but the kid has shown nothing but the ability to potentially be a justifiable pick at this position. I see him as having a similar impact on us as Lindholm did with ANA. Not much of similar skillsets but overall lindholm at 6 was a reach slightly as well. If Seider became a top 3 dman in this draft, we cant be upset at all.

 

[Dotter]

A couple more:

The stuff you see him doing in 3 v 3 scrimmage is the same type of stuff you see him doing against men and pros in high competition games. He is rock solid and you can't rattle him. He composed to the likes we remember from Nick Lidstrom.

 

[drw02]

He pretty much dominated Wings dev camp. For a guy that just turned 18 a couple months ago it was very impressive. Showed excellent two way ability, moves with ease and real nice burst for a guy his size. He looked every bit worth the 6th overall pick

 

[Speyer]

yes he was

I can confirm that. TSN was even hyping him up as the guy with the most offensive upside of the draft...

 

[rawraw]

Quotes from Scotty:

“Steve, he doesn’t care,” Scotty Bowman told the Jamie and Stoney Show on 97.1 The Ticket. “What you have to do running a team is, sometimes you have to try to hit some home runs. And I think this guy could be a home run. I really do. I know from the talk about him that he was good the last part of last year.”

“I don’t know if he’s ready to come in right away, but he’s very close because he played against men. And I know that the Blackhawks had him rated really high. Everyone had him rated high. He was either going to be the second or third defenseman drafted,” said Bowman.

 

[FissionFire]

Didn’t most wings fans hate the pick because he is viewed as a high floor low ceiling player?

Yeah the Rasmussen pick was pretty universally hated on the Detroit boards. He is viewed as a high floor, low ceiling middle 6 center upside. Wings seem to pick lots of guys like that - Larkin was considered the same and many hated that pick too. Seider is viewed as that type of pick now as well. We will see how it all turns out. Hopefully they turn into Larkin’s.

Germany just getting better and better. They almost want Olympic gold. They are hard to play against. Seider looks solid already, dissent speed, fast thinking compete level thru the roof. If Green healthy ,he should play with him , if not wings need to get someone so he can learn from him

Green and Seider are both right-handed D so I doubt they’d play together on a pairing unless Seider was playing his off-hand side which seems like a bad idea.

I've heard the Wings' scouts were very high on Podkolzin too. Supposedly it came down to Podkolzin vs. Seider and Yzerman went with Seider.

Podkolzin was the guy I wanted us to draft is Byram and Turcotte were gone. I really like him. I’m not upset with the Seider pick but I’m not as optimistic on his upside as many here seem to be.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

Future considerations had him 7th.
McKeens had him 7th.
Jeff Marek of sportsnet had him 9th.
The hockey news had him 5th.

You are cherry picking from trash sources, how convenient. You are contradicting yourself anyways as you said he should have went 6-7 picks after being selected at 4. Simple arithmetic puts him at 10-11 which clearly is not supported by your cherry picking attempt.

I, like many people thought he would go before Heiskanen but that was very close.

 

[Eisen]

The stuff you see him doing in 3 v 3 scrimmage is the same type of stuff you see him doing against men and pros in high competition games. He is rock solid and you can't rattle him. He composed to the likes we remember from Nick Lidstrom.

I didn't see him as much as I would like to have but what I saw makes me think you guys will like him. He is mature beyond his years.

 

[Mark Edwards]

Lol...no he wasn't.

Yes he was. I know numerous teams who had him that high and we had him 4th ourselves.

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

Appeal to authority is a dangerous thing. "NHL teams dedicate entire staffs, tons of resources and energy into scouting players" to then end up picking

D Erik Gudbranson 3rd
D Dylan McIlrath 10th
D Duncan Siemens 11th
D Griffin Reinhart 4th
D Slater Koekkoek 10th
D Sam Morin 11th
F Michael Dal Colle 5th
D Haydn Fleury 7th

These are just notable top-11 picks from 2010 to 2015 (i.e. long enough in the past to predict with relative certainty where their careers are going). And you'll notice a common theme: 8 out of 9 on that list are defencemen. D-men are hard to get in the NHL, so teams end up reaching for them. And even though they "dedicate entire staffs, tons of resources and energy" into that project, they often miss.

Now, this doesn't mean the scouting staffs and GMs are entirely bad – it's obviously just incredibly difficult to predict the future of teenagers. But, and this is the important thing, you also can't say NHL teams are more trustworthy than public sources only based on the fact that they're NHL teams.

Of course, there are differences between lists, though. As much as I respect anyone who scouts an entire draft class on their own, you can't trust individual lists as much as teams or scouting services. It takes at the very least 5 games (rather 10) to accurately understand a player's skill set and potential. It's impossible to get that live from an entire draft class. If you're only watching video, I'd still say it's impossible but at least more likely. But if you're only watching video, that's another reason to trust the list less than those that have watched the players live.

So as much as I love reading Button's, Pronman's, Wheeler's, and whoever else's lists, I don't trust them because I know they can't possibly have watched the players enough. And most of the ones they did see live in a season were at international tournaments.

But I definitely trust HockeyProspect, Future Considerations, and ISS with their opinions because they all have large staffs around the world that go out and watch the players. And I absolutely do not trust NHL teams more simply based on the fact that they're NHL teams. Whether or not you get to work for an NHL team is like 80% connections, 10% luck and 10% actual scouting skill and knowledge.

Out of those three services, HP had Seider the highest. And, correct me if I'm wrong @Mark Edwards, I believe Mark thinks more like NHL clubs in the sense that he'll say if you want a big, right-shot, two-way defenceman, you have to draft him, and that's why Seider was ranked 10th. But if you're simply going by upside, they all agree that Seider is not a top-10 player and especially not top-6. And considering they actually have scouts that have seen Seider live many times, just like the NHL teams, I think that's extremely valid and it's entirely fair to believe Seider was not a consensus top-6 pick in the NHL either. But, as always, it only takes one team to really like a player and go off the board.

Also want to point out that all the players you listed were drafted out the CHL.

 

[Stive Morgan]

Also want to point out that all the players you listed were drafted out the CHL.

Exactly. In recent years, every defenseman drafted out of Europe in the Top 10 I can think of has succeeded (Dahlin, Heiskanen, Ristolainen, etc.)

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Exactly. In recent years, every defenseman drafted out of Europe in the Top 10 I can think of has succeeded (Dahlin, Heiskanen, Ristolainen, etc.)

Juolevi...

 

[BondraTime]

Juolevi...

Was drafted out of London...