Speculation: Rangers cap crunch

[Michel Beauchamp]

Bonuses earned from ELC count against that 7.5%.

That cushion is not pushed to the next season.

Go and read the CBA.

Wrong.

50.5 h) (iii):
At the conclusion of each League Year, the amount of Performance
Bonuses actually earned, including, without limitation, and for purposes of
clarity, (i) Exhibit 5 Individual "A" Performance Bonuses and "B"
Performance Bonuses paid by the Club that may be earned by Players in
the Entry Level System and (ii) Performance Bonuses that may be earned
by Players pursuant to Section 50.2(b)(i)(C) above, shall be determined
and shall be charged against the Club's Upper Limit and Averaged Club
Salary for such League Year. To the extent a Club's Averaged Club
Salary exceeds its Upper Limit as a result of: (i) Exhibit 5 Individual "A"
Performance Bonuses and "B" Performance Bonuses paid by the Club that
may be earned by Players in the Entry Level System and (ii) Performance
Bonuses that may be earned by Players pursuant to Section 50.2(b)(i)(C)
above, then the Club's Upper Limit for the next League Year shall be
reduced by an amount equal to such excess.

 

[Nucks N Canes]

Yea two first round picks and kakko

You are trying to trade a guy with negative value, thinking a first plus should be expected, unless your thinking you are going to retain half than there isn't much of a point to move him anyways.

 

[Shootertooter]

What do Rangers fans think Kreider will get on his next contract, in terms of AAV and term? Has there been any noise or leaks about it?

I was considering it with regards to what it would take for Colorado to to resign him after acquiring him (as discussed earlier in this thread), but it might as well be a general question regardless of who he resigns with.

For reference, here are some comparables for Kreider from the past two offseasons, sorted by term and then AAV:

• Skinner --------- age 27 ---- $9m x 8 years ----- expires at age 35
• Duchene ------- age 28 ---- $8m x 7 years ----- expires at age 36
• Hayes ----------- age 27 ---- $7.14 x 7 years ----- expires at age 34
• Lee -------------- age 28 ---- $7m x 7 years ----- expires at age 35
• E. Kane --------- age 26 ----- $7m x 7 years ----- expires at age 33
  
• Nelson ---------- age 27 ---- $6m x 6 years ----- expires at age 33
• Turris ------------ age 28 ---- $6m x 6 years ----- expires at age 34
  
• Van Riemsdyk - age 29 ---- $7m x 5 years ----- expires at age 34
  
• Zuccarello ------ age 31 ---- $6m x 5 years ----- expires at age 36
  
• Pacioretty ------ age 28 ---- $7m x 4 years ----- expires at age 32
• Pavelski -------- age 34 ----- $7m x 3 years ----- expires at age 37
• Stastny --------- age 32 --- $6.5m x 3 years ----- expires at age 35

Note that Kreider will be 29 next summer, and recently no forwards over age 28 have gotten more than 5 years term.

If I were to guess Kreider will probably come in somewhere between Turris and Van Riemsdyk's contracts. If he wants $7m he'll probably only get 5 years. If he wants that extra 6th year he'd probably be closer to $6m.

That said, he might find that the only teams offering the $7m x 5 years are less competitive teams who are willing to overpay slightly (like Minnesota with Zuccarello), rather than contenders.

Based on the list above I'd say that a good contract for him with Colorado would probably be around $6.5m / 5 years. $6m x 6 years wouldn't be bad either, but would ideally be heavily front-loaded and include no NTC/NMC so that he can be easily traded in the last 2 years if needed. Mackinnon's contract renewal happens in 2023 so it's important to have flexibility after the first 3 years of Kreider's contract.

[/QUOTE]

I see something similar to Zuccarello's deal...........6m x 5 years

 

[bernmeister]

....

This is simply terrible for Ott.
In what world do 3 significant cap dumps and Andersson return a 1st?

What is being overlooked is the reasonable presumption the SJ pick is extremely late.
At most that is sj wins and is 31OA - Lias actual at 7OA =24, which is a dif of 2 whole dozen.
There was a consensus that the Rangers reached with this kid, but that was not like a Dylan McIlrath reach. It was like at worst like 12OA, Say we say around 10OA. Say using another round # and Sharks finish like 25th. That is still a significant dif of 15.

If we moved Andersson, we would get more than 25OA. We would get some sweetener + 25OA, which my model supports.

We would be lucky to get a 6th for that garbage. And there is no chance for that either.

Do the math. Marleau is like 6.35 or something like that for a single year of dead cap on a 35+ guy. Zero chance to do anything further. Had to be bought out as part of the whole transaction, or Marleau would not go, and Canes would not get their first. And remember the pick Canes are getting from Leafs is presumed to be a late pick.

Remember, Staal and Smith ARE AT HALF.
This means they can be retained one additional time, and then flipped.
Much better than the dead cap Marleau scenario.

Staal 5.7 at half = 2.85
Smith 4.35 at half = 2.17+ [fast math]
that is a hair over 5
add Beleskey at 1.9
total is approx 7

this is ballpark close to Marleau's 6.35 or so.

the late pick SJ pick less Andy earlier value = another late pick, only this is in 7ishm of $.

Sens not shortchanged here.
Also like I said, they would probably have to hold on to somewhat native son Staal, but Smith can be moved at half and certainly can be moved at half of that.
Like I said, the dead Holden at 2.2 for the energetic Smith at 1.08ish = instant cap relief for Vegas. We can't do that b'c we can only cut him in half to 2.+
And Vegas will pay Ott for that.
At 1.9 Beleskey is a negligible expiring dump.

Come on, no team makes moves this stupid, to this magnitude.

Sens could do a lot worse than use some of their cap on this. Owner may not want to spend $, but if he doesn't give fans any hope whatsoever, at least for entertainment, set aside competing for a cup, they will abandon the club, which has zero upside.

Andersson is beginning 2nd yr elc.
The assumption here is that he proved he could finally skate at last 3 wks of season will be starting pt to build a good career. Whatever other pros and cons in his game, he does show a motor and constant hustle. Sens need a guy like that.

Staal is not getting traded ever.

It is entirely possible, you may be right as far as Staal goes, he may just prefer to stay here and not do us any favors. What goes around comes around, and when he retires we will remember that.
In such case we'd have to swap Namest. for staal in that deal.

He should get bought out.

I wouldn't say unconditionally no, but that must truly be last resort only.
It is easy to say buy him out, that's the instant gratification of the win now crowd. Are we not still paying for Girardi's buy out? Granted, the buyout option is significantly cheaper now than previously, but still, not without consequence.

If we can't move him, we have to try and keep him one more year. We can hope that compliance buyouts will come early. That would avoid long term cap implications. But we still need to have a solution for now.

That means trading Skjei.
And while we are at it, since Trouba is now officially in the fold. We can consider selling high on Deangelo.

Remember, you want to get ahead of the curve to extent possible on the expansion draft.
Rykov, Fox are exempt.
Trouba, Lindgren and Hajek are not.

don't wait til Flyers resolve their problems
or detroit gets a backine

move Skjei and deangelo now
that will help with cap

Belesky and Smith to Hartford.......
Names might be able to get moved.......or waive him.

fallback

I think we are keeping Strome.

Canes have a 3rd of ours which is likely to b'c a 2nd.
Strome for the pick.

Trade Kreider at the deadline or don't, but I think resigning him for 5 yrs will be a mistake.

I would prefer 4, but you can't expect a player to go under a certain threshold. i can live with 5 IF there is no NMC, only generous NTC.

 

[themelkman]

You must be crazy if you don't think Kreider demands 7. That is the trend of the league and it will happen because someone will pay it

 

[bernmeister]

You must be crazy if you don't think Kreider demands 7. That is the trend of the league and it will happen because someone will pay it

That assumes, falsely, that the dominant overriding factor is $.
Zuc took a lot less to get established and comfortable here.
He NEEDED to take max $.

Panarin is a good comparable.
Mo $ on the table from others, including in the tri-state area, but he took (upwards of) a mil or so less to come to Rangers.

Notice I said 6.2.

I did not say 5 or in that area.

 

[Shootertooter]

Um, no........Bern. Adding Andersson to Staal(who shouldn't even be in this discussion) and Smith and Belesky is a sweetener for Ott to take the deal.......they are not handing us a good pick in return. The cap they would be taking is more than Marleau's hit and it is 4 total bodies. We'd be lucky is we got a return of future considerations and a pet rock.

Why are you insistent on moving Skjei and ADA? They are actually better players than the pylons in your proposal......move those out first? Skjei is going to be Touba's partner on the 1st pair. ADA may be odd man out but is is likely the 2nd best RHD we have today. As a RFA, I would not be in a hurry to move him out for a small return.

Why would the Canes want Strome?

 

[themelkman]

That assumes, falsely, that the dominant overriding factor is $.
Zuc took a lot less to get established and comfortable here.
He NEEDED to take max $.

Panarin is a good comparable.
Mo $ on the table from others, including in the tri-state area, but he took (upwards of) a mil or so less to come to Rangers.

Notice I said 6.2.

I did not say 5 or in that area.

I meant years, 7 years.

 

[bernmeister]

I meant years, 7 years.

fair enough, but
if CK does 5 yrs that puts him out at 33.

This is a guy who is a gym rat and jumps out of a pool from a standing start.

He will remain in top shape, and even if it is less than now, he will still get another good 2-3, maybe 4 yr final $ contract.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

fair enough, but
if CK does 5 yrs that puts him out at 33.

This is a guy who is a gym rat and jumps out of a pool from a standing start.

There are also plenty of other players who are taking less term and higher AAV. Max Pacioretty took $7M/4Y on a contract that starts when he's 30, and he had a better looking track record than Kreider does. I'd try to use Pacioretty as a comparable, adjust for inflation, and give something like $8M/4Y to Kreider.

 

[Alluckks]

Bern, you take over too many threads

 

[Dijock94]

You are trying to trade a guy with negative value, thinking a first plus should be expected, unless your thinking you are going to retain half than there isn't much of a point to move him anyways.

If it costs a first they wouldn’t trade him. At that point it’s buyout or keep him. Toronto didn’t care about parting with a first because they can pretty much guarantee it’s a late first, and they also aren’t a rebuilding team.

 

[Djp]

Wrong.

50.5 h) (iii):
At the conclusion of each League Year, the amount of Performance
Bonuses actually earned, including, without limitation, and for purposes of
clarity, (i) Exhibit 5 Individual "A" Performance Bonuses and "B"
Performance Bonuses paid by the Club that may be earned by Players in
the Entry Level System and (ii) Performance Bonuses that may be earned
by Players pursuant to Section 50.2(b)(i)(C) above, shall be determined
and shall be charged against the Club's Upper Limit and Averaged Club
Salary for such League Year. To the extent a Club's Averaged Club
Salary exceeds its Upper Limit as a result of: (i) Exhibit 5 Individual "A"
Performance Bonuses and "B" Performance Bonuses paid by the Club that
may be earned by Players in the Entry Level System and (ii) Performance
Bonuses that may be earned by Players pursuant to Section 50.2(b)(i)(C)
above, then the Club's Upper Limit for the next League Year shall be
reduced by an amount equal to such excess.

The club upper limit is that 7.5% buffer that’s above the cap. With$81.5M cap that is a lityke over $6.2M for bonuses paid and LTIR money paid.

Any excess paid above that 6.2 M paid rolls over to the next season. 35+ bonus contracts can be structured to count again the next year if bonus are paid.

 

[Michel Beauchamp]

The club upper limit is that 7.5% buffer that’s above the cap. With$81.5M cap that is a lityke over $6.2M for bonuses paid and LTIR money paid.

Any excess paid above that 6.2 M paid rolls over to the next season. 35+ bonus contracts can be structured to count again the next year if bonus are paid.

Wrong, wrong and wrong.

Any quotes from the CBA ?

I thought not...

PS: That 7.5% bonus cushion has nothing to do with LTIR...

 

[Djp]

I could see
Skjei [AV knows, I think likes him] + Deangelo [grew up a Flyers fan] of interest to Philly. Reason: nowhere close to Prov. and may want to deal Ghost.

I could also see a big deal alternatively with those 2 and others to Detroit.

---------

Beleskey
Smith at half
Staal at half
Lias Andersson elc

to Sens for SJ 2020 1st [Ott controlled]

Smith is retained again and thus at like 1.08+ and flipped to Vegas for lifeless Holden, 2.2 expiring, and inducement ________

Rangers get out from under cap, and continue to pare down to a min core.

If Staal uses NMC and refuses, then we substitute 1 yr of Namest at 4 instead.

Sens get better value of a top 10 pick vs a very late projected pick.

Rangers effectively trade down value of a first to get a late 1st while achieving objective of salary slash.

On what planet does a team take on multi year cap dumps and have to give up a 1st?

 

[ItWasJustified]

Yes, what a tragedy that 2 of the best players on the market wanted to come and play in NYC. We should be more like Edmonton, Ottawa and Buffalo and be the least desirable market to play in. More like the dead zone that is Winnipeg?

Well, you're in cap hell now. You were a lottery team 1 month ago, your depth looks suspicius and you have to be lucky to reach the playoffs this year. Good luck I guess.

 

[Vitto79]

Well, you're in cap hell now. You were a lottery team 1 month ago, your depth looks suspicius and you have to be lucky to reach the playoffs this year. Good luck I guess.

You have to admit it’s been a great offseason for NYR. Most fans know they are 2 yrs away from the bad contracts expiring

They will be good in 2 yrs

 

[Nucks N Canes]

You have to admit it’s been a great offseason for NYR. Most fans know they are 2 yrs away from the bad contracts expiring

They will be good in 2 yrs

Depends how many new bad contracts they want to give out. Panarin although a great player likely will never live up to his contract. CBJ still barely made the playoffs with him and they had a much deeper team than what rangers currently have.

 

[mouser]

The club upper limit is that 7.5% buffer that’s above the cap. With$81.5M cap that is a lityke over $6.2M for bonuses paid and LTIR money paid.

Any excess paid above that 6.2 M paid rolls over to the next season. 35+ bonus contracts can be structured to count again the next year if bonus are paid.

No, the cushion simply allows a team to temporarily exceed the cap due to performance bonuses that might end up going unearned. At the end of the season if enough bonuses were actually earned to put the team over the cap then those bonuses roll over to count against the next season’s cap.

Also, teams cannot use LTIR space to fit in performance bonuses. Any team exceeding the cap due to LTIR will have all earned performance bonuses roll over to the next season.

 

[NYR Viper]

Well, you're in cap hell now. You were a lottery team 1 month ago, your depth looks suspicius and you have to be lucky to reach the playoffs this year. Good luck I guess.

I wouldn’t classify it as ‘cap hell’. Yes the team is tight but they have valuable pieces they can trade that most likely aren’t in the long term plans of the organization. The Rangers can retain on 3 contracts and they have depth pieces to back-fill those players already in house. Yes the team is young. Yes there are question marks. But if you start to look 1 and 2 years down the road, the Rangers are actually in a pretty good spot. The ‘crunch’ they see themselves in right now isn’t as bad as people are making it out to be.

Trades of:
Strome
Namestnikov
Kreider
Shattenkirk
Buchnevich

Buyout of Smith and/or Staal

Gorton has options and the beauty of the position he’s in is that if he doesn’t like the offers on Kreider right now, fine, move on to Strome. No on Strome? Namestnikov. Again if retention is demanded Gorton has the ability to do so as the lengths of the contracts aren’t prohibitive. It would nullify SOME of the cap space benefit but more than likely he will have to make 2-3 deals/buyouts no matter what route he goes. Basically finding a taker for Namestnikov, say at $3m cap hit ($1m retained) is still a net positive for the organization. They add some sort of future piece, say a 2nd, and create $3m in cap space this year.

 

[JT Kreider]

Well, you're in cap hell now. You were a lottery team 1 month ago, your depth looks suspicius and you have to be lucky to reach the playoffs this year. Good luck I guess.

Definitely not in cap hell, we just need to get through the next two seasons before we get upwards of $35 million in cap space. Over that time we'll have only one real cap casualty with Kreider, who probably would/should have been traded regardless.

Rangers always cut bait on their players at the perfect time before we are stuck with them for the long term.

Dating back to Gomez, Gaborik, Stepan, Callahan, Brassard, Miller, McDonagh, Hayes, etc.

 

[OurlordAndSaviorKuch]

how is a lottery team over the cap.

Piss poor Cap management.

What is the penalty for being over the cap anyways?

 

[OurlordAndSaviorKuch]

This is simply terrible for Ott.
In what world do 3 significant cap dumps and Andersson return a 1st? We would be lucky to get a 6th for that garbage. And there is no chance for that either. Come on, no team makes moves this stupid, to this magnitude.

Staal is not getting traded ever. He should get bought out.
Belesky and Smith to Hartford.......Names might be able to get moved.......or waive him.
I think we are keeping Strome. Trade Kreider at the deadline or don't, but I think resigning him for 5 yrs will be a mistake.

Ask Vancouver I hear they enjoy trading out 1sts for cap dump moves.

 

[JT Kreider]

Just look how bad things were for the Rangers after we got trounced by the Penguins in 2016.

That was a team actually in cap hell, with an aging core locked into bad contracts and the worst prospect pool in the league, and no 1st round pick (or 2nd round pick) for the 4th straight season.

That was just a short 3 years ago..

 

[Gospel of Prospal]

I have two Kreider proposals:


1) What about Kreider and Marc Staal (reunite him with his brother so he waives his NTC) to the Wild for a protected first rounder, Jordan Greenway and Luke Kunin?


2) Kreider and Brendan Smith to the Ducks for Sam Steel, a third rounder and Antoine Morand