OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: We're the Pirates, bro

[DJ Spinoza]

Bar none, the best baseball poster on twitter:

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Just build an Oscar Marin statue right now.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Utilizing the entire zone?

It's crazy enough that it just might work

 

[ChaosAgent]

Swag

Wow that fastball POPS. Woot.

 

[Gallatin]

First Pitch - the new Musgrove curveball. Damn....

 

[ChaosAgent]

First Pitch - the new Musgrove curveball. Damn....

You didn't give me a (trigger warning) for watching Moran play 3B defense before that one.

(trigger warning - includes the Ginger Statue)

 

[DJ Spinoza]

The one thing I hate most about ST is how dodgy the radar guns seem to be. They didn't even display it from what I was watching earlier, but if Mugrove can throw a lot of the curve and slider while living a lot upstairs with a fastball that sits 93mph, that would be pretty sick. I want to believe in the upside, but I still like the floor just fine... an extension would be pretty worthwhile, and maybe he'd embrace it, having already won a WS.

I haven't done any real dives into his specific pitches, but I think he's someone who doesn't need to totally ditch the sinker, but maybe just scatter its usage as another look. I think the difference maker with him will be how much he can use his fastball to get swinging strikes, leading to better counts for burying the good offspeed pitches. The elements are there. Incidentally I think this is also going to be the big question with Keller – if he can use the fastball tactically and consistently. Keith Law goes as far as to say that he's out on Keller's fastball and suggests he may end up in the bullpen in his newest top 100, which I think is a bit extreme, but Law doesn't often take half measures in terms of what he thinks.

I have a lot of confidence in Keller and a pretty high amount in Musgrove. If both show up along with Archer, things will be more interesting than a lot of people are betting on, myself included...

 

[ChaosAgent]

The one thing I hate most about ST is how dodgy the radar guns seem to be. They didn't even display it from what I was watching earlier, but if Mugrove can throw a lot of the curve and slider while living a lot upstairs with a fastball that sits 93mph, that would be pretty sick. I want to believe in the upside, but I still like the floor just fine... an extension would be pretty worthwhile, and maybe he'd embrace it, having already won a WS.

Keith Law goes as far as to say that he's out on Keller's fastball and suggests he may end up in the bullpen in his newest top 100, which I think is a bit extreme, but Law doesn't often take half measures in terms of what he thinks.

I have a lot of confidence in Keller and a pretty high amount in Musgrove. If both show up along with Archer, things will be more interesting than a lot of people are betting on, myself included...

"Having already won a WS**********"

Regardless, if a guy like Musgrove signs an extension it's because they want to lock in life-changing money and take the sure thing. I can't blame them. He's made about $5M career earnings, which sounds like a lot but isn't really multi-generational wealth. If he signed a $40-$50M extension, that's generational wealth. Not saying that a guy like that wouldn't still be motivated, but you can understand the desire to lock in. FWIW I think Cutch had made a similar amount when he extended.

As far as Keller goes, yeah I'm kinda back to following general consensus here in terms of being high on him. But if you guys remember the debates last year, I remember that I was very hung up on the flatness of his fastball. It didn't seem to have deception and looked very hittable to me. So I'm assuming that Law went in that direction.

Would love for 2020 me to be right and 2019 me to be wrong on the Keller topic.

 

[Winger for Hire]

If Marin can get Keller's pitch sequencing at an MLB level and his bad luck from last year's batted balls comes down to a reasonable level, I think the floor on Keller raises significantly.

Very, very early signs are pointing to the Marin and a new philosophy getting the arrow pointing up on the front three starters this season (Musgrove, Keller, Archer). If they can all pitch toward their ceilings and Marin finds some modest gains for Williams, Kuhl, Brault and maybe find a way to harness Crick's wildness, you have a nice sleeper staff that could, maybe sneak them into a WC discussion.

 

[DanielPlainview]

Did they actual make McKenry Blass’ replacement or is that just a segment or ST thing?

 

[ChaosAgent]

Did they actual make McKenry Blass’ replacement or is that just a segment or ST thing?

They are rotating some dudes from what I understand. McKenry and GI Jones are 2 of em.

 

[DanielPlainview]

Man I hope Brown and Walk are a permanent duo

 

[cookthebooks]

how do you best make money betting the pirates are closer to .500 than losing 100?

i still think this really seems like a good bet. it truly is beginning to look the development and instruction from the upper minors to the majors was years behind

 

[ChaosAgent]

i still think this really seems like a good bet. it truly is beginning to look the development and instruction from the upper minors to the majors was years behind

The offense still sucks. I'd still be skeptical.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Statcast Outs Above Average Leaderboard

Context into how bad our defense was last year.

Shockingly it is very down on Newman and Tucker. But not surprised to see bad grades for Bell and Moran.

Doesn't have catcher for obvious reasons; it's about fielding balls in play.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

That first inning was exactly, 100% what you want to see out of Keller if anyone is watching. Obviously, he threw a touch too many pitches, but the location and idea is what he needs to succeed. Blew right past the first guys, then got just a bit out of synch and fell behind 3-0 to the third batter. He throws two identical, hard fastballs right at the very ceiling of the zone to get back in the count. First one the guy takes, second one he can't catch up to. Then he throws both the curve and slider. Gets a piece of curve, slider too wicked movement, far outside for ball 4. Next guy lines up the fastball for an immediate single, but then he works Castillo in a similar fashion, eventually getting him to pop up for the final out at only 22 pitches or so.

Not like it's world-beating, but he needs to be throwing that fastball at the top of the zone a lot. We'll see if hitters can eventually start lining it up, but it will set up all his other stuff well. And a minor bonus to see him get into a slight jam and work right out of it.

 

[ChaosAgent]

That first inning was exactly, 100% what you want to see out of Keller if anyone is watching. Obviously, he threw a touch too many pitches, but the location and idea is what he needs to succeed. Blew right past the first guys, then got just a bit out of synch and fell behind 3-0 to the third batter. He throws two identical, hard fastballs right at the very ceiling of the zone to get back in the count. First one the guy takes, second one he can't catch up to. Then he throws both the curve and slider. Gets a piece of curve, slider too wicked movement, far outside for ball 4. Next guy lines up the fastball for an immediate single, but then he works Castillo in a similar fashion, eventually getting him to pop up for the final out at only 22 pitches or so.

Not like it's world-beating, but he needs to be throwing that fastball at the top of the zone a lot. We'll see if hitters can eventually start lining it up, but it will set up all his other stuff well. And a minor bonus to see him get into a slight jam and work right out of it.

And that second inning was brutal from what I can see. Threw a meatball fastball middle-out to a lefty AA hitter and they hit it out oppo.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Keller gives up a bomb and a hard hit double in inning 2, not what you love to see but it's spring training, so we'll focus on pitches like this:



Overall an encouraging outing – lots of swing and miss and some stuff to work on. After the HR, comes back to attack and get the next guy swinging on 3 pitches, to reach a presumed pitch count of 33 pitches and be done for the day.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Keller gives up a bomb and a hard hit double in inning 2, not what you love to see but it's spring training, so we'll focus on pitches like this:



Overall an encouraging outing – lots of swing and miss and some stuff to work on. After the HR, comes back to attack and get the next guy swinging on 3 pitches, to reach a presumed pitch count of 33 pitches and be done for the day.

@DJ Spinoza I hate to troll for behind-the-paywall stuff but what exactly did KLaw say about Keller's fastball? Curious as to what made him go "all the way out."

 

[DJ Spinoza]

And that second inning was brutal from what I can see. Threw a meatball fastball middle-out to a lefty AA hitter and they hit it out oppo.

It was a curve but the dude definitely crushed it. He needs to bury the curve low in the zone I think, and rely a lot on the slider. I think that he will still need to develop and utilize the changeup in order to be effective, because while I'm not with Law on what he says about it, I don't think it's a super plus pitch. The good news for Keller is that if he can command it and utilize his two plus offspeed pitches, it's still good enough to make him a front end guy IMO.

Overall, I'm fine with the outing. He had a bit of wildness flaring up but only walked one guy, and that was because the guy was barely able to get a piece of a good curveball. It happens, for a spring training outing I'll take a bunch of Ks and something to work on with the HR/double.

 

[td_ice]

On top of 1st....watching a bit behind on dvr.

Yeah, Keller has that very smooth, nice and easy delivery. Looked good, despite walk and hit.



Good Lord, that pop up looked like the keystones cops. 3 guys almost collided. Someone call for it.

 

[Winger for Hire]

If he can effectively work that fastball high in the zone, that hook becomes even more effective. He doesn't need that fastball to be a world beater, just good enough to set up that knee buckler to make some hitters look very foolish. Toss in some work on that change piece becoming less firm and the ingredients are there for Keller to play to his ceiling.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

@DJ Spinoza I hate to troll for behind-the-paywall stuff but what exactly did KLaw say about Keller's fastball? Curious as to what made him go "all the way out."

No worries- he basically just says a fairly straightforward truism, that he thinks it doesn't have enough deception or movement in order to get lefties out, and that hitters aren't going to miss it if they don't have to watch out for a change of pace pitch.

I think it's not wrong, but the suggestion of a bullpen is outrageous IMO. My guess with Keller is that he will be flashing dominance right out of the gate and perhaps run into a real nightmare game vs a lineup with a lot of good lefties. He's going to need a changeup but he's already miles ahead of last year because he won't have Searage telling him to pound the fastball low in the zone. Elite hitters will be able to crush his fastball at times, but they can also crush Cole's fastball. If he's throwing it right at the top of the zone then a lot of hitters won't catch up to it and if he tunnels it with the curveball, he's going to deceive plenty of people, especially the first and second time through the order.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Other notes of interest from the broadcast: Bell went heavily to a plant-based diet in the offseason, not totally vegan, but enough such that Brown had to get his .02 in about veganism, prompting a lecture on nutrition from the Fort. I find the Fort entertaining, I think it will actually be useful to have rotating color commentators.

Polanco also was able to hammer an 0-2 pitch for a single off a lefty. Good sign.

 

[Winger for Hire]

I'm having a good feeling in my soul about Polanco this season.

I think that 5-Tool Superstar projection has long sailed, but I can see a slightly better version of Joc Pederson playing out