OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: We're the Pirates, bro

[ChaosAgent]

I ain't no scout, but Riddle looks hitter-ish to me.

Happy to have him at the end of the 26-man.

 

[ChaosAgent]

No worries- he basically just says a fairly straightforward truism, that he thinks it doesn't have enough deception or movement in order to get lefties out, and that hitters aren't going to miss it if they don't have to watch out for a change of pace pitch.

I think it's not wrong, but the suggestion of a bullpen is outrageous IMO. My guess with Keller is that he will be flashing dominance right out of the gate and perhaps run into a real nightmare game vs a lineup with a lot of good lefties. He's going to need a changeup but he's already miles ahead of last year because he won't have Searage telling him to pound the fastball low in the zone. Elite hitters will be able to crush his fastball at times, but they can also crush Cole's fastball. If he's throwing it right at the top of the zone then a lot of hitters won't catch up to it and if he tunnels it with the curveball, he's going to deceive plenty of people, especially the first and second time through the order.

Yeah, if Law is that down on Keller's fastball it's far more likely that he busts outright than ends up in the bullpen? He's got 2 years probably to establish himself here; I do like his offspeed stuff quite a bit.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Yeah, if Law is that down on Keller's fastball it's far more likely that he busts outright than ends up in the bullpen? He's got 2 years probably to establish himself here; I do like his offspeed stuff quite a bit.

I generally agree with this... however, I would be very curious as to how his SL/CV combo with his FB going on tilt to keep everyone honest and some CH sprinkled in would play in a single innings stints.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Seeing Osuna make good plays at 3rd warms my heart.

There are alternatives to the statue, people.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, if Law is that down on Keller's fastball it's far more likely that he busts outright than ends up in the bullpen? He's got 2 years probably to establish himself here; I do like his offspeed stuff quite a bit.

I think Law's writeup is too hand-wavy personally. I respect him obviously so I won't dismiss it out of hand, and in fairness to him he's just raising risk and not predicting, but I think there are too many metrics which point to Keller already being absurdly unlucky. I think his stats from last year should just be thrown into the garbage and he should be looked at as someone who has already shown that he can get lots of Ks against MLB hitters and will need to develop consistency, sequencing, and so on... like every highly touted pitching prospect.

Winger's point about his floor is well taken. I think his floor will still be useful MLB pitcher, and if he's bouncing better FB/CV with some SLD, then his floor is something like a high upside #3. But his ceiling is a good bit higher and he seems to have the attack mentality for it, and now the coaching which won't try to make him something that he's not.


I also have a good feeling about Polanco's season in terms of usefulness. I think that some of the offensive concerns on the lineup might be overblown, as I believe in Eckstein's approach, but on the whole I do think that we may be in a kind of "deja vu" scenario where the pitching is mostly very solid and there are some nights where the offense just can't get anything going other than some singles. We'll see how it unfolds, I think Shelton's lineup management might be pretty crucial, and the kind of mopping up that we can get out of the #5 and #6 guys.

Polanco will seem really valuable if he can minimize the swing and miss, but we also need power in the lineup pretty badly. Right now I am of the mindset that he should hit 5th behind Bell, and that maybe we just have Frazier hitting 6th with the good hit tool. I think I'd rather have Frazier up there with two outs and guys on 1st and 3rd or something over Moran, but Frazier might be useful at the top of the lineup. A lot depends on where Dyson slots in, as well as Newman. I think you start with Newman and Reynolds in the top-2 for sure, maybe this if Dyson works well:

Dyson
Reynolds
Newman
Bell
Polanco
Frazier
Moran
Stallings
Pitcher

That would allow you to utilize Osuna as a big RH pinch hitter for anyone in the Polanco-Moran range in a key situation if you needed. If Dyson is bad, then I think you put Newman at leadoff and Dyson 8th, flipping Frazier closer to the top of the order. Could also experiment with Polanco 3rd in that situation. If Frazier can get back to his elite hit-tool ways, which in fairness to him (since as @DocEmrickSkitters knows well, I have slandered him from time to time) he did do later on in the season when he was healthier last year, then I think he might be the best guy to hit behind Bell.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Moran-hate might be something that can unify all of us regulars who don't troll about payroll but still have strong differences from time to time.

All aboard the Osuna as starting 3B train!

 

[Winger for Hire]

How DARE you people slander Mr Opening Day!!

 

[ChaosAgent]

Moran-hate might be something that can unify all of us regulars who don't troll about payroll but still have strong differences from time to time.

All aboard the Osuna as starting 3B train!

At some point, why the hell not.

Osuna's offensive upside is just as high as Moran's and he might be a functional fielder with adequate reps. Moran will never have the athleticism to be that at 3B (though I think he could play 1B).

 

[DJ Spinoza]

More of a minor consideration but I suspect Moran might also have a bit more trade value if he demonstrates 3+ months of coming off the bench as a pinch hitter. I don't know if he has the power to really intrigue a team, but a bubble team might be attracted to him. His hit tool is good.

Burdi 100mph

 

[cookthebooks]

in for trading moran

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Osuna barehands a ball and fires a rocket to 1B like it's nothing. Make that dude the starter.

This is probably bending the stick too far but I almost wonder if Osuna would be a surprise ~3 WAR guy if you made him the starter. He's worked for years and years to get an opportunity, last year was very solid off the bench. If he is the starter, this is his moment to really show something. I really would like his balance to all the lefties, and we already know everything that Moran is. Maybe he can tick his HRs up a little bit, but I don't really see anything huge emerging.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Osuna could definitely be overexposed with more ABs, but I could also see the defensive question make things interesting heading out of camp. A timeshare/platoon could definitely be in the cards at the very least.

 

[Gallatin]

That first inning was exactly, 100% what you want to see out of Keller if anyone is watching. Obviously, he threw a touch too many pitches, but the location and idea is what he needs to succeed. Blew right past the first guys, then got just a bit out of synch and fell behind 3-0 to the third batter. He throws two identical, hard fastballs right at the very ceiling of the zone to get back in the count. First one the guy takes, second one he can't catch up to. Then he throws both the curve and slider. Gets a piece of curve, slider too wicked movement, far outside for ball 4. Next guy lines up the fastball for an immediate single, but then he works Castillo in a similar fashion, eventually getting him to pop up for the final out at only 22 pitches or so.

Not like it's world-beating, but he needs to be throwing that fastball at the top of the zone a lot. We'll see if hitters can eventually start lining it up, but it will set up all his other stuff well. And a minor bonus to see him get into a slight jam and work right out of it.

Would love to see him start throwing a cutter too.

 

[Gallatin]

It was a curve but the dude definitely crushed it. He needs to bury the curve low in the zone I think, and rely a lot on the slider. I think that he will still need to develop and utilize the changeup in order to be effective, because while I'm not with Law on what he says about it, I don't think it's a super plus pitch. The good news for Keller is that if he can command it and utilize his two plus offspeed pitches, it's still good enough to make him a front end guy IMO.

Overall, I'm fine with the outing. He had a bit of wildness flaring up but only walked one guy, and that was because the guy was barely able to get a piece of a good curveball. It happens, for a spring training outing I'll take a bunch of Ks and something to work on with the HR/double.

I gave up on his change a while back. Would love to see him working on a cutter though.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Early impression is I don't want much to do with Erlin, but very early to make those kinds of calls yet. I wonder if Holland would accept a bullpen spot, but on the assumption he's given a starter spot to start, I'll take Brault as the main lefty in the pen and go from there. Holmes should probably be penciled in to the pen, unless he just starts to show no control. Neverauskas is someone I'd need to see real definitive things from (and I mean "I" in the sense of the coaching staff, not only fan/results).

Howard is an intriguing guy and seems to be a question of control, like Holmes.

In case anyone isn't watching, Hayes' out from the last inning was absolutely smashed but right at the RF. Minor but good to see.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Early impression is I don't want much to do with Erlin, but very early to make those kinds of calls yet. I wonder if Holland would accept a bullpen spot, but on the assumption he's given a starter spot to start, I'll take Brault as the main lefty in the pen and go from there. Holmes should probably be penciled in to the pen, unless he just starts to show no control. Neverauskas is someone I'd need to see real definitive things from (and I mean "I" in the sense of the coaching staff, not only fan/results).

Howard is an intriguing guy and seems to be a question of control, like Holmes.

In case anyone isn't watching, Hayes' out from the last inning was absolutely smashed but right at the RF. Minor but good to see.

Neverauskas is a guy where I'd just feel better as an org if he weren't around anymore.

We've seen him. We know his fastball is far flatter than Keller's, can't be located, and gets destroyed by major leaguers. We know this. Let his radar gun readings seduce someone else.

 

[cookthebooks]

Osuna could definitely be overexposed with more ABs, but I could also see the defensive question make things interesting heading out of camp. A timeshare/platoon could definitely be in the cards at the very least.

maybe overexposed vs already exposed competition

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Neverauskas is a guy where I'd just feel better as an org if he weren't around anymore.

We've seen him. We know his fastball is far flatter than Keller's, can't be located, and gets destroyed by major leaguers. We know this. Let his radar gun readings seduce someone else.

Yeah I'm no advocate for sure, but I'll let spring training play out. Right now I think the Marin hiring might be more important than anything else, though with a lot of bullpen guys, I think a big part of it is luck.

In my eyes, Holmes has shown a lot more promise, and I'm too lazy to look it up, but I think both of them are out of options. I wouldn't go out of my way to give Neverauskas one more cup of tea.

 

[Gallatin]

Neverauskas is a guy where I'd just feel better as an org if he weren't around anymore.

We've seen him. We know his fastball is far flatter than Keller's, can't be located, and gets destroyed by major leaguers. We know this. Let his radar gun readings seduce someone else.

Personally - I don't want any of these kind of big armed failed pitchers to hightail it before the new regime works with them. It's a new world in pitcher development - and BC brings a lot of that missing expertise to the org.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Yeah I'm no advocate for sure, but I'll let spring training play out. Right now I think the Marin hiring might be more important than anything else, though with a lot of bullpen guys, I think a big part of it is luck.

In my eyes, Holmes has shown a lot more promise, and I'm too lazy to look it up, but I think both of them are out of options. I wouldn't go out of my way to give Neverauskas one more cup of tea.

I'll certainly agree that Holmes > Neverauskus. When you see a righty fastball that doesn't move at all, it's batting practice for ML hitters.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I wonder if Burdi might make some more sense as the closer heir to Kela on the assumption that maybe it'd suppress his innings some more? Just a random thought.

Also, another extremely minor positive thing: Susac, today's catcher, looks to be another rock solid defender. So that should be a crew 4 deep of good defenders. Could become irrelevant in a few years if robo umps are instituted, but I'm am absolutely fine with punting on catcher offense for very good defense. And I think Stallings will be serviceable enough with the bat, though if I'm honest I'd rather a guy hit .220 and a chunk of HRs than hold down a .260 average. I give Stallings decent odds to be right around the top-10 in catcher WAR next year, actually.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I wonder if Burdi might make some more sense as the closer heir to Kela on the assumption that maybe it'd suppress his innings some more? Just a random thought.

Also, another extremely minor positive thing: Susac, today's catcher, looks to be another rock solid defender. So that should be a crew 4 deep of good defenders. Could become irrelevant in a few years if robo umps are instituted, but I'm am absolutely fine with punting on catcher offense for very good defense. And I think Stallings will be serviceable enough with the bat, though if I'm honest I'd rather a guy hit .220 and a chunk of HRs than hold down a .260 average. I give Stallings decent odds to be right around the top-10 in catcher WAR next year, actually.

Burdi was absolutely electric last year before he went out. I know the stats weren't there totally but he looked unhittable. The issue is his health, first and foremost. Perhaps Cederlind is similar.

I think that's pretty optimistic on Stallings, although I agree that he is rock-solid defensively. Removing Diaz is certainly going to help this team and its pitchers.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I think the bat will have to improve if that's gonna happen, but if he starts something like 65-70% of the games, he should put up close to 3 WAR I think.

I think having the extra bullpen spot will be nice for easing Burdi in and really managing his innings and workload, so that we can keep him around. Yet another free pickup that is looking great. The bullpen has the makings to be decent as long as Santana and Burdi stay healthy and contribute how they are capable. If RichRod can ditch the HR problems, it might even be pretty good.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I think the bat will have to improve if that's gonna happen, but if he starts something like 65-70% of the games, he should put up close to 3 WAR I think.

I think having the extra bullpen spot will be nice for easing Burdi in and really managing his innings and workload, so that we can keep him around. Yet another free pickup that is looking great. The bullpen has the makings to be decent as long as Santana and Burdi stay healthy and contribute how they are capable. If RichRod can ditch the HR problems, it might even be pretty good.

I feel like Richrod is the lowest-variance of the bunch. I know we'll get average to slightly-above-average out of him. The rest? Who knows. But Santana, Burdi, Brault and Cederlind all have real upside.

 

[Winger for Hire]

ST game never jive with my schedule, can anyone who's seen some give a quick report on how Tucker has looked early on?