OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Tis the off season, Pirates are in port

[DJ Spinoza]

They are in the 10th inning right now. Not sure how many IP Skenes ended up with.

He stayed with 7. I think he had 105 pitches. Crews with 2 Ks, I think for the first time all year. He also seems to have collected two infield hits, which just goes to show another part of his game.

Once Crews gets a healthy number of SEC ABs, I think the sole determining question for me will be his K rate in those appearances. If it's anywhere from fine to good, then he remains my hope for 1.1, because I think he's simply put a rare opportunity for a 5 tool advanced college bat. That's high floor + high ceiling. With that said, the more Skenes keeps up this kind of performance against SEC offenses, the harder it will be to ignore, and I think it goes without saying that we are organizationally weaker at SP.

Edit: well, game was completely over at this point, but Crews launched another bomb to right center field in the bottom of the 10th.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I just don't get what the process or plan is with Swaggerty other than him being a holdover from Huntington's front office. There are no plus CFs with the team (unless I am misremembering and Chavez Young wasn't sent to minor league camp, but iirc he was) and Swaggerty was a standout in that capacity all spring.

I've said this probably too many times, but I don't think it's worth getting totally up in arms, as Swaggerty has a lot of ground to cover to be a low end regular player. That said, absent some context that I am missing, it sure seems like the plan in CF is for Suwinski and Reynolds to split time. I don't like that at all.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

I guess their estimates are at least "in the ballpark".

It is not that hard to estimate operating costs + source of revenues. Especially considering that a lot of the data is publicly available (players salaries, TV contracts, revenue sharing, etc).

It is a guess, but it is a rather educated guess.

Its extremely difficult to accurately estimate both.

Because almost all of the information is private and half of what isnt is inaccurate.

I could put together an estimate that shows them losing 20 mil thats completely realistic and an estimate showing them make 50 mil thats completely realistic. There are soooo many factors

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Here's a yellow/red flag, IMO. I saw another quote from Cherington earlier that said something to the effect of "we are concentrating on preparing for the season". Obviously, in the GMs case, there are a lot of reasons not to tip your hand in any trade or negotiation, but what I could see/worry about is the team waiting until the last few days of spring training to sort of ambush Reynolds with only a slightly improved contract to see if he'll sign it.

It really should not be difficult. I don't want to rehash everything, but the sides are close enough that if there is good will that's been re-established and both of them are willing to compromise, the contract should get done. But if there's some kind of fake urgency for Reynolds to get barely any improvement on the offer that insulted him, then it's going to cement him being gone IMO.

 

[Mr Jeff Jimerson]

Bryan Reynolds is an embarrassing joke. Just sign the contract, kid. You're not McCutchen, you're not Brian Giles, you're not even Jason Bay. You haven't earned the right to negotiate for a better deal, kid.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Bryan Reynolds is an embarrassing joke. Just sign the contract, kid. You're not McCutchen, you're not Brian Giles, you're not even Jason Bay. You haven't earned the right to negotiate for a better deal, kid.

Well thats a take.

 

[Empoleon8771]

The Pirates need to be willing to give Reynolds a reasonable contract while Reynolds also needs to be willing to take a reasonable contract. I think Reynolds has been more reasonable than the Pirates so far, so I think the Pirates will need to move more.

I'm cautiously optimistic about a deal being done. I think the Pirates will need to get up to 6x90 or 7x100 to get a deal done, but they should be able to do either of those.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

If Reynolds would take 6/90 or 100/7 the deal would be done. He has to know he is looking at 2 more years than a QO.

 

[sovietsanta87]

Looks like Skenes absolutely shoved vs. Arkansas today. 7 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 12 Ks so far. Haven't seen anything other than clips, but that's a pretty remarkable showing vs. a very good offense.

I watched a decent portion of that game. No doubt his fastball is explosive. I get concerned about his mechanics. 1) because theyre difficult to repeat 2) he shows the ball too early to batters 3) seems like a lot of stress on the elbow. His three walks were all in succession. Ultimately he got out of it. But there were times where the slider was flat and he relied on his fastball. Again his fastball is insane. 98-102. Crazy inside run. But I’m not sure if he’s the best player in this class

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I watched a decent portion of that game. No doubt his fastball is explosive. I get concerned about his mechanics. 1) because theyre difficult to repeat 2) he shows the ball too early to batters 3) seems like a lot of stress on the elbow. His three walks were all in succession. Ultimately he got out of it. But there were times where the slider was flat and he relied on his fastball. Again his fastball is insane. 98-102. Crazy inside run. But I’m not sure if he’s the best player in this class

I think it's just always too hard of a sell for me in terms of pitchers at the top of the draft. If you look at two great college guys in Cole and Strasburg, they undoubtedly had returns and contributed to their teams being dominant, especially now Cole in the way that he took off since going to the Astros.

But while it's not the best idea to simply judge based on what the Pirates could get out of it, when you have a shot at a college bat like Crews, I think it becomes more apparent. Best case scenario with Skenes is that he probably gets to the big leagues in 2025. That's within the window for this team, especially if we somehow get a Reynolds deal done, but so much needs to go right for that to happen and for him to be an immediate impact guy, and then you have the Russian roulette of arm injury on top of that.

I'm just going to keep banging the Crews drum unless he nosedives. He's someone who has a long track record and is advanced from both a metrics and traditional scouting perspective. We lucked out getting a chance to pick him and I think even though Skenes and to an extent Langford and Dollander are both flashing great things, it's better to just make the uncomplicated and easy choice for once and focus on getting him to Pittsburgh by that same 2025 season.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Another bomb for Crews today. It's becoming a bit ridiculous at this point.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I don’t think you can justify anyone else at #1 outside of Crews, he’s absolutely demolishing the SEC right now. His slash line is above "video game numbers", he's literally OPSing 1.600 with a batting average above .500 so far this year. I would riot if the Pirates took anyone else but him at #1 overall.

 

[sovietsanta87]

I don’t think you can justify anyone else at #1 outside of Crews, he’s absolutely demolishing the SEC right now. His slash line is above "video game numbers", he's literally OPSing 1.600 with a batting average above .500 so far this year. I would riot if the Pirates took anyone else but him at #1 overall.

Laughing at the “literally riot” part hahaha. The rest I agree. Although I wouldn’t necessarily be upset if we picked Skenes or Dollander either. But crews has been better than advertised which is saying something

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Vinny V actually looked really sharp tonight, albeit against mostly non-regulars from the Orioles. Tons and tons of whiffs.

I also wouldn't mind seeing Perdomo break camp with the team.

Cherington made a comment about 4 guys fighting for 2 spots. He seemed to be referencing Castro shortly after, so it would stand to reason that this might mean Castro, Bae, CSN, and Mathias, but I think Castro might be penciled in. He was taken out of this game early along with Hayes. Owings and Maggi came in, and we know Owings isn't making it, with Maggi being a longshot.

Who knows, but it seems like it would make sense to have the decision basically done by tomorrow's game so that the A lineup could come out for a few games, though at the same time it's not like Shelton won't mess with it a bunch.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

lmao

 

[td_ice]

Oh no, it's Will Crowe, (hopefully that won't be a familiar refrain this season.)

 

[td_ice]

lmao

Can wait to see this guy at PNC one day.

 

[MrBrightside]

If he was a Pirate he’d make his debut June 22, 2024.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Langford is already back, interesting enough (his injury wasn't anything serious but I thought it would knock him out a few more weeks).

Apparently Keith Law thinks Langford is a better defender with more power but I just don't see it, especially the former. I think you could argue that he's more of a full blown thumper than Crews, but Crews looks like a pretty strong power-speed guy who can play a solid CF. He has everything that gives you a comfortable floor at a premium defensive position and really from my armchair, a swing that gets a little more lift will make him a 30 HR guy in MLB

In any case, I haven't listened to the Law podcast where he says this, and admittedly he's not always wrong, but him touting someone other than Crews at 1.1 makes me even firmer on Crews at 1.1.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Can wait to see this guy at PNC one day.

For the cardinals?

Sorry had to be done

Langford is already back, interesting enough (his injury wasn't anything serious but I thought it would knock him out a few more weeks).

Apparently Keith Law thinks Langford is a better defender with more power but I just don't see it, especially the former. I think you could argue that he's more of a full blown thumper than Crews, but Crews looks like a pretty strong power-speed guy who can play a solid CF. He has everything that gives you a comfortable floor at a premium defensive position and really from my armchair, a swing that gets a little more lift will make him a 30 HR guy in MLB

In any case, I haven't listened to the Law podcast where he says this, and admittedly he's not always wrong, but him touting someone other than Crews at 1.1 makes me even firmer on Crews at 1.1.

Hes the only guy that ive seen that says langford is a better athlete.

But i do think hes on to something with the concept of whoever is the best defender is probably the better pick.

They both put up absurd numbers

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Gotta admit that this is a bit weird to roll out. Braves are sending Strider, which is a good opportunity for all the regulars to get some ABs against a polished and very good starter. I guess it's partially a function of last night being a night game but I'm less sold, and if it's a "compete for a spot" day, where is Bae?

 

[sovietsanta87]

Gotta admit that this is a bit weird to roll out. Braves are sending Strider, which is a good opportunity for all the regulars to get some ABs against a polished and very good starter. I guess it's partially a function of last night being a night game but I'm less sold, and if it's a "compete for a spot" day, where is Bae?

Don’t forget….Derek Shelton is a terrible manager and was basically hired to babysit during a rebuild

 

[DJ Spinoza]

If he was a Pirate he’d make his debut June 22, 2024.

Volpe made the Yankees too. Pretty obvious that these winning clubs who regularly spend a lot of money can easily make these kinds of decisions.

I don't mean either of these things in an excuse-the-Pirates way, but with winning teams, letting a prospect earn a shot makes all the sense in the world, because if that prospect struggles, you can always send him down later for a while and still effectively do ST manipulation.

I'm less sure about this one, but in a sense there's probably even more incentive for the Cardinals or Yankees to recoup a pick, since they'll likely pick in the 23-30 range anyways, so having a second pick shortly after that range is a nice boost.

Rodriguez was given even less of a chance to show anything this spring than Cruz last year.

 

[MrBrightside]