With Giolito's stock being somewhat questionable, I think I'm fine with NH holding pat. Yeah, we all got worked up over which Nationals prospects we want, but at least for me, the hard call would be whether there were only two out of three of the pitchers and a lesser prospect. It's an amazing prospect haul still, but I'm mainly concerned with this team establishing a clear plan that isn't sacrificing on 2017 quality. This trade could have been something of a boon in 2017, if you are high on Giolito's immediate transition, and Lopez staying as a starter, but it also could have been muddled once the shine wore off the new prospects.
If somebody like Ross was part of the deal, on the other hand, you have some more assurances about a hole being filled in 2017 on top of the good prospect haul.
This changes somewhat if Robles were included, but it seems clear as day now that he's the Harper replacement and was never on the table.
Two further things: doing nothing is not in itself any coherent strategy, and so this is not an exonerate NH post. I'm just happy to stand firm on the idea that we can decide to hold onto McCutchen if the exact offer is not there.
The second thing, more alarming, is that nothing comparable was ever there from the Nationals, which seems a little hard to believe, but indicates some problems as far as any Cutch trade in the near future. Maybe Rizzo would offer Giolito, Dunning, and someone lesser, or Lopez, Dunning, and someone lesser. Those are not terrible returns, but they aren't exactly "returns on one of the greatest Pirates in team history."
And while that latter point is not a good benchmark to judge any trade that's going to happen, I think it's somewhat telling that the general fan reaction is extremely negative. Most people seemed to be initially opposed to any trade vehemently, and as with the inertia of things, it becomes desirable to see anything happen with the Pirates. Well, I don't think Cutch will exactly go back to MVP status, but the player we saw for most of 2016 is not Andrew McCutchen. He will be an impact player in 2017, for us or for somebody else.
Going forward, the one thing I'd like to see transpire is Washington to miss out on a closer, which is what they really need. Then NH might have some really strong leverage in moving Watson, and be able to pull off a similar type trade as the Melancon deal, since there will be no options for the Nationals (and worth noting here - with a pitching logjam a possibility, Lopez or Giolito could have easily been bullpen contributors in Washington, and now that option is gone).