OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: The Last Day(s) of Cutch?

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Brandinho

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I feel like I owe you all a vow that I will stop rampant speculation based on nothing after the winter meetings end, but it's probably not wise to make that promise.

Outside the box idea: if the Nationals go all-in on Cutch, maybe turn around and move some prospects not named Glasnow, Meadows, Bell, Robles for Quintana? The rationale to do it would be a bit obviated if we had Ross or Lopez coming back to us in a Cutch deal, but if the White Sox are really going to rebuild, they could probably get a reasonably solid group of young players for Quintana as well, and we might be positioned well with our depth to do it.

Why would the Sox trade Quintana for prospects not named Glasnow or Meadows? He's been better than Sale the past two seasons and is only 2 months older. Sale has a higher ceiling as he demonstrated in 2013 and 2014, but Quintana is still a 5 WAR pitcher in his prime and he's signed longer and for less money than Sale.
 

DJ Spinoza

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Yeah, I suppose that underrated him too much, but I don't know that he's as safe of a bet to keep contributing at the same rate. I'm surprised though, I thought it was more just last year that he was performing so highly.

In any case, they can probably afford to wait a year or year and a half before thinking about moving him.
 

Gumbercules

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I wouldn't expect Quintana's play to dip anytime soon (no more than any other ace at least). He's been top 15 in WAR the last three seasons and is only 27. Even start to start he is as consistent as they come. He's the definition of an underrated superstar.

In any event, the speculation is that Quintana (along with Rodon, Anderson & Eaton) isn't going to be among the assets in the fire sale.
 

DJ Spinoza

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Thanks for the run-down - yeah, it makes more sense not to do a total scorched earth operation, especially with neither of the key pieces in the Red Sox deal being too far away.

Heyman just tweeted that the Nationals may be inquiring about Quintana, so it definitely seems like they are eager to make some kind of move. Maybe the Rays would want to seize an opportunity and jump on Robles + Giolito for Archer, but their ask has been a bit higher.

The speculation I've seen recently that I think might be most accurate is that the Nationals were thinking about a Robles + Lopez deal for Cutch, with us wanting one more. I think that's very good groundwork for a deal, even if those are both prospects. In getting carried away with the attention and speculation, we can't lose sight of Cutch's legitimate question marks. I don't know if it's quite enough, and so a lot hinges on who the third player would be. I'd be thrilled if adding Watson to the mix could somehow push Ross into that deal; keep Robles for down the road and add Ross to the rotation immediately, with Glasnow and Lopez quickly behind. We could still probably use some veteran depth in the mix somewhere (and a lefty), but I'd rather concentrate Watson into the deal and get three very high quality assets than sit on Watson and get two very high quality assets and two good assets.

It's entirely possible that Ross is fairly off the table, though. I don't know as much about Cole, but I definitely prefer Ross to him (as does the spirit of S-Rod...).
 

Brandinho

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Thanks for the run-down - yeah, it makes more sense not to do a total scorched earth operation, especially with neither of the key pieces in the Red Sox deal being too far away.

Heyman just tweeted that the Nationals may be inquiring about Quintana, so it definitely seems like they are eager to make some kind of move. Maybe the Rays would want to seize an opportunity and jump on Robles + Giolito for Archer, but their ask has been a bit higher.

The speculation I've seen recently that I think might be most accurate is that the Nationals were thinking about a Robles + Lopez deal for Cutch, with us wanting one more. I think that's very good groundwork for a deal, even if those are both prospects. In getting carried away with the attention and speculation, we can't lose sight of Cutch's legitimate question marks. I don't know if it's quite enough, and so a lot hinges on who the third player would be. I'd be thrilled if adding Watson to the mix could somehow push Ross into that deal; keep Robles for down the road and add Ross to the rotation immediately, with Glasnow and Lopez quickly behind. We could still probably use some veteran depth in the mix somewhere (and a lefty), but I'd rather concentrate Watson into the deal and get three very high quality assets than sit on Watson and get two very high quality assets and two good assets.

It's entirely possible that Ross is fairly off the table, though. I don't know as much about Cole, but I definitely prefer Ross to him (as does the spirit of S-Rod...).

Cole was a very hyped prospect a few years ago whose star has faded a bit. He's an athletic guy who throws 4 pitches for strikes, but none of the pitches are overwhelming on their own. He projects as a mid rotation starter, but he doesn't have quite the upside of Fedde. For what it's worth, he performed better than Giolito in the majors last season, although Giolito was garbage so that's not saying much. His peripherals were a lot stronger than his ERA, though, which seems to have been inflated by a flukish HR rate. I'd be disappointed if Cole were the 2nd prospect in a package for Cutch, but if Washington refuse to give up Fedde, I'd be satisfied with him being the third guy.
 

DJ Spinoza

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Thanks for the rundown on Cole. I've still got my fingers crossed for Ross, but with a bit of question marks over Giolito, and Cole not being as proven, it seems more likely that he'd be one of the players off the table. Now if we could actually get Robles, Giolito, Cole? Very prospect oriented, but it's not bad in terms of very high upsides.

Looks like the Cubs might get Wade Davis. Figures.
 

Brandinho

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I wouldn't envy the Cubs getting Davis. He's a great reliever, but they'll pay a hefty price for him and those kind of deals are almost never worth it. The trick is finding the next Wade Davis, there are quite a few failed starters out there who have the potential to turn into dominant relievers.

As for Robles, Giolito and Cole, I'd be okay with that package despite the reservations about Giolito. There are a decent number of permutations that'd work for us, as long as at least one of Robles, Lopez or Ross are part of the deal.
 

JimmyTwoTimes

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We don't need Robles. That shouldn't stop us from trading with the Nat's. I can understand them wanting to keep him considering the uncertainty of Bryce Harper in a few years.
 

DJ Spinoza

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Apparently the last Nationals offer for Sale included Robles, Giolito, and then Lopez was added at the end.

If Giolito and Lopez were the starting points of a deal, that's still potentially great for us. Robles would have been nice to acquire for many reasons, but NH may also be positioned now to use him as a bargaining tactic.

We'll see - the Nationals are very hard to read, and they still have a lot of options to see play out. We may need to see what happens with Chapman/Jansen first. If they miss out on both, there will be more pressure for a deal.
 

DJ Spinoza

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Having the 12th overall pick next year will be a good chance to grab another blue chip prospect, I hope. I have no idea what the crop is like, but that's high enough that if we play it right, it could be the cornerstone of a future wave. Not sure if there are any other teams who may burn their pick to sign somebody.
 

Big McLargehuge

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The Rockies really do live in their own little world, don't they?

In what world is a 31 year-old Ian Desmond worth the 11th overall pick? To say nothing of what they're actually going to have to pay him. OF wasn't even a big need...this just pushes Parra and the $19.5 million still owed to him to the trading block.

edit: Apparently they're planning on playing him at 1B...they really do exist in their own little world.
 
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Winger for Hire

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Sounds like Desmond might slide into the 1st base spot in Colorado.

And I think the White Sox are the only team in front of the Pirates in the draft with an unprotected pick, so this is the Pirates final resting spot in the draft.
 

Rufus

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Desmond to COL could be bad for us. May mean they shop Blackmon, who is a CF and would probably cost less to acquire than McCutchen

EDIT: Maybe not

 

Big McLargehuge

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Colorado would be well off keeping who they have and moving Cargo to 1st to keep him healthy.

If they do anything else I'd question their sanity. They're not going to get anything for trading Parra, who is a better player than his season last year would indicate, and CarGo has already lost quite a few steps (which means a lot when you're talking about how huge Coors' outfield is), and Blackmon always struck me as more of a RF than a CF anyway.
 
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