OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Tanking underway
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Empoleon8771
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Honestly I'm fine with that outcome. Team loses while I get to feel good about Hader looking like a clown.
DJ Spinoza
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Yeah I'll take it. We probably lost in part because the umpire apparently just felt bad and ignored the walk to Reynolds, but whatever. It's not going to be as easy as it seemed to lock down a top-3 pick so every loss is useful.
Not ideal for RichRod to give up another HR but any team acquiring him isn't going to make a deicision based on one game.
Not ideal for RichRod to give up another HR but any team acquiring him isn't going to make a deicision based on one game.
DJ Spinoza
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I go back and forth on the idea of moving Musgrove. On the one hand, my view is that you have to be somewhat careful in moving off dependable starting pitching vs. trying to extend some guys and give yourself some stability. On the other hand, as is somewhat obvious, the starting pitching is probably the best group of assets Cherington has in his hands, and the team sucks.
Musgrove especially is tricky because you don't want to sell lower due to an injury, and he has also at times flashed real upside this year. I think he sort of is what he is at this point, which is a dependable option who can sometimes give you a stretch of outstanding games. It's easy to watch him and think he's still pushing towards the latter more consistently – i.e., in short hand, branding him a #2 rather than a #3/4 or something – but it's probably a good bet that he'd continue to be very solid rather than turn into yet another Cole situation.
As you all know, I can spin myself into circles over the various contingencies and hypotheticals, but whatever he does, Cherington needs to be demonstrating that he has a clear plan. I think most of us hope he's extremely active between now and tomorrow afternoon. I certainly do and I will not be too happy if Hayes isn't the permanent starting third baseman by Tuesday night at the absolute latest.
Williams makes a lot of sense to deal to me, and I sort of suspect that some of the teams interested could also have some interest in RichRod or perhaps even EGon as the second piece of a decently large deal. Those things cut both ways, with teams potentially liking the control option, but also I think sometimes deciding to target expiring contracts due to the fact that there's less surplus. It will be interesting to see how it plays out – imo, a team like the White Sox or perhaps Padres could find the control, glue type guys to be really appealing in trying to give themselves a bit of a boost right now and some security later. I highly, highly doubt that Cherington could get the White Sox desperate enough to serve up Kopech or Vaughn, two guys not in the immediate plan but with enormous upside, but that would be a dream.
For Kuhl, I think it's pretty much all downside to deal him. He's looking very good, but the injury and track record are marks against him. He's the no brainer guy to spend a little money on and keep around.
Back to Musgrove, he's emerged as a clear leader-type on the team, so on the one hand he's someone you could try and invest in if you really think you can turn the ship around starting next year and into 2022 especially. I can squint and see the possibility, but it's probably better to be realistic. To me, 2021 is very much looking like a further extension of 2020 with hopefully a normal season, and more opportunities for various young players and random castoffs from other teams to solidify a role for 2022 and beyond.
So in short, I can see a world where it makes sense to deal both Musgrove and Williams. We need to get pitching arms and I think we need to get an interesting bat somewhere. I wouldn't chase a catcher in a trade. It's going to be disappointing if we see a bunch of activity and the returns are PTBNL loopholes which basically will mean low minors prospects. I'll try to emphasize this again in a post that's not super long, because I'm not sure everyone is fully aware of it.
Musgrove especially is tricky because you don't want to sell lower due to an injury, and he has also at times flashed real upside this year. I think he sort of is what he is at this point, which is a dependable option who can sometimes give you a stretch of outstanding games. It's easy to watch him and think he's still pushing towards the latter more consistently – i.e., in short hand, branding him a #2 rather than a #3/4 or something – but it's probably a good bet that he'd continue to be very solid rather than turn into yet another Cole situation.
As you all know, I can spin myself into circles over the various contingencies and hypotheticals, but whatever he does, Cherington needs to be demonstrating that he has a clear plan. I think most of us hope he's extremely active between now and tomorrow afternoon. I certainly do and I will not be too happy if Hayes isn't the permanent starting third baseman by Tuesday night at the absolute latest.
Williams makes a lot of sense to deal to me, and I sort of suspect that some of the teams interested could also have some interest in RichRod or perhaps even EGon as the second piece of a decently large deal. Those things cut both ways, with teams potentially liking the control option, but also I think sometimes deciding to target expiring contracts due to the fact that there's less surplus. It will be interesting to see how it plays out – imo, a team like the White Sox or perhaps Padres could find the control, glue type guys to be really appealing in trying to give themselves a bit of a boost right now and some security later. I highly, highly doubt that Cherington could get the White Sox desperate enough to serve up Kopech or Vaughn, two guys not in the immediate plan but with enormous upside, but that would be a dream.
For Kuhl, I think it's pretty much all downside to deal him. He's looking very good, but the injury and track record are marks against him. He's the no brainer guy to spend a little money on and keep around.
Back to Musgrove, he's emerged as a clear leader-type on the team, so on the one hand he's someone you could try and invest in if you really think you can turn the ship around starting next year and into 2022 especially. I can squint and see the possibility, but it's probably better to be realistic. To me, 2021 is very much looking like a further extension of 2020 with hopefully a normal season, and more opportunities for various young players and random castoffs from other teams to solidify a role for 2022 and beyond.
So in short, I can see a world where it makes sense to deal both Musgrove and Williams. We need to get pitching arms and I think we need to get an interesting bat somewhere. I wouldn't chase a catcher in a trade. It's going to be disappointing if we see a bunch of activity and the returns are PTBNL loopholes which basically will mean low minors prospects. I'll try to emphasize this again in a post that's not super long, because I'm not sure everyone is fully aware of it.
DJ Spinoza
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Trying to give the much shorter, schematic version: Cherington has to be careful about the deals that he makes. He needs to get real upside guys, and the solution he has in mind may very well be a sort of extended and long rebuild where he trades for PTBNL returns right now because it's the loophole to get guys who are not in the alternative sites right now. The obvious extra caveat there is that some teams aren't even sharing data of their alternative sites, where players are just doing glorified practice anyways, and the low minors guys are spread all around the country and parts of the world seemingly doing various ad hoc training regimes.
So trading for PTBNL low minors types is more fraught than it is when there's a guy in single-A not quite on the radars yet that you want to try and scoop up, etc.
My hopes for the deadline remain in part to try and shuffle out a substantial chunk of players and open up some opportunities for talent that hasn't clicked elsewhere yet. With Oakland dealing Barreto, the biggest names left in my mind are Clint Frazier, Andujar, and Touki Toussaint.
Frazier has probably played his way onto a bunch of team's wish lists, including perhaps a team that is not really rebuilding and so could use him as part of their immediate plans and long term. The obvious ironic team that pops in my head is Cleveland, who of course dealt him in the first place. Maybe he's part of a Clevinger package, but they'll want more. I think Frazier is probably not in the cards for us, but I'd jump at the chance to get his power into our lineup.
Andujar is a quite interesting guy to keep an eye on IMO. He's really struggled, and now again has been demoted. He does not have a position or seemingly a future with the Yankees. It makes some sense that they will just keep him like Frazier as super depth, figuring maybe that he'll work some things out or eventually find a spot as a fill-in player for three weeks of solid performance. On a brutal level, the Yankees can afford to simply do that – it's quite literally what they've continued to do with Frazier, where they've been more successful.
But Andujar's value has to be tanking, and maybe the time is right to strike and gamble for him. The question is where you'd play him in Pittsburgh. He could DH, but his defense is atrocious. If we got him, I could see it as a sneaky longer-term DH potential plan, with some inkling that perhaps we try him at 1B and consider moving Bell in the offseason (something I am not totally opposed to, but I would approach Bell and see if you can buy out one of his arb years this winter, something that necessitates another long ass post for me to try and defend).
That brings me to Touki, who I think is the player I covet the most. Atlanta needs dependable starting pitching and can't afford to let him pitch right now. He's looked very good in relief roles and has at least put together good starts at the MLB level. He's 24 and lines up pretty well with Keller as someone to build around. As far as what's available, he's maybe the perfect option of long-term impact, talent upside, and slightly on the outs with his own team in need of a scenery change. Atlanta surely doesn't want to let him go cheap, but I'd leverage him into any deal for Musgrove, Williams, or anyone else they'd want (it would have been a dream come true if Moran was healthy enough and they wanted him and we did a swap).
So trading for PTBNL low minors types is more fraught than it is when there's a guy in single-A not quite on the radars yet that you want to try and scoop up, etc.
My hopes for the deadline remain in part to try and shuffle out a substantial chunk of players and open up some opportunities for talent that hasn't clicked elsewhere yet. With Oakland dealing Barreto, the biggest names left in my mind are Clint Frazier, Andujar, and Touki Toussaint.
Frazier has probably played his way onto a bunch of team's wish lists, including perhaps a team that is not really rebuilding and so could use him as part of their immediate plans and long term. The obvious ironic team that pops in my head is Cleveland, who of course dealt him in the first place. Maybe he's part of a Clevinger package, but they'll want more. I think Frazier is probably not in the cards for us, but I'd jump at the chance to get his power into our lineup.
Andujar is a quite interesting guy to keep an eye on IMO. He's really struggled, and now again has been demoted. He does not have a position or seemingly a future with the Yankees. It makes some sense that they will just keep him like Frazier as super depth, figuring maybe that he'll work some things out or eventually find a spot as a fill-in player for three weeks of solid performance. On a brutal level, the Yankees can afford to simply do that – it's quite literally what they've continued to do with Frazier, where they've been more successful.
But Andujar's value has to be tanking, and maybe the time is right to strike and gamble for him. The question is where you'd play him in Pittsburgh. He could DH, but his defense is atrocious. If we got him, I could see it as a sneaky longer-term DH potential plan, with some inkling that perhaps we try him at 1B and consider moving Bell in the offseason (something I am not totally opposed to, but I would approach Bell and see if you can buy out one of his arb years this winter, something that necessitates another long ass post for me to try and defend).
That brings me to Touki, who I think is the player I covet the most. Atlanta needs dependable starting pitching and can't afford to let him pitch right now. He's looked very good in relief roles and has at least put together good starts at the MLB level. He's 24 and lines up pretty well with Keller as someone to build around. As far as what's available, he's maybe the perfect option of long-term impact, talent upside, and slightly on the outs with his own team in need of a scenery change. Atlanta surely doesn't want to let him go cheap, but I'd leverage him into any deal for Musgrove, Williams, or anyone else they'd want (it would have been a dream come true if Moran was healthy enough and they wanted him and we did a swap).
DJ Spinoza
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Not the best development if you are eying Braves pitching talent, but I think their rotation is in bad enough shape that this might not be the only move they want to make. Will be curious to see the return.
Milone is on an expiring contract and we've seen this time and time again when various rumors pop up: it's floated that teams like years of control, but years of control means bigger surplus, and teams are almost universally unwilling to fire off top-10 system prospects anymore, so they opt for expiring contract options and less longer-term risk.
This is sort of why I think I bigger deal with a team like the White Sox might make some sense. They have invested heavily in their team and to some extent their window is really open right now and in 2021. The value is not quite right but maybe with the right combination you could pry a real high upside but wildcard guy from them in Kopech. By the time Kopech might be really good, some of their window will have already passed. Picking up some glue guys with him isn't the worst idea.
DJ Spinoza
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DJ Spinoza
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I share your general skepticism towards him but I would point out that it might not be a coincidence that he's heated up a month into the season. I don't really think there's a great solution with him at this point. My sincere take is I'd gamble on buying out his arb years to get a FA year and hope it lets him relax some. A huge amount of it seems mental with him. At least if you took that risk, maybe he puts togther a moderately consistent season and you flip him. I highly doubt he'd sign away a FA year, but it honestly might be prudent.
All quiet on the rumor front. Seems like Clevinger being shipped somewhere is holding things back. My gut says Toronto is a good match for us in a few ways. Atlanta makes sense if they miss on Clevinger – they've coveted Musgrove for a while.
I'm sort of taking the pretty depressing mindset that I hope we shuffle Frazier off wherever because I am sick of watching him play. There are certain guys 'd love to end up with, but I probably still care the most about seeing Hayes' debut ASAP. Tuesday has to be the latest.
All quiet on the rumor front. Seems like Clevinger being shipped somewhere is holding things back. My gut says Toronto is a good match for us in a few ways. Atlanta makes sense if they miss on Clevinger – they've coveted Musgrove for a while.
I'm sort of taking the pretty depressing mindset that I hope we shuffle Frazier off wherever because I am sick of watching him play. There are certain guys 'd love to end up with, but I probably still care the most about seeing Hayes' debut ASAP. Tuesday has to be the latest.
DJ Spinoza
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As we head into what looks like a busy deadline day, it's hard not to again feel immense frustration at our situation for reasons of both merit and bad luck. Kela and Moran could have been moderately attractive pieces and neither of them is probably tradable now given that their hurt.
Other players who might be available have years of control and probably some appeal to teams concerned with both cost and control, but the flip side of that is that they may very well decide not to use up their assets. It's hard to predict and it's not a great situation to deal from, other than the fact that Cherington can probably pretty much do whatever he wants and receive some praise, because inaction will be what most of us, myself included, blame him for.
Gut feeling? Toronto matches up very well for a Williams + Gonzalez trade. Atlanta seems possible as a Musgrove destination, and I suspect Frazier's versatility and track record will see his market heat up today. I'm hoping to some extent that all has been quiet in part because Cherington has been working something relatively big or surprising. It's not a likely possibility, but I mean something like Bell to the Yankees as part of a Clint Frazier + prospects type of idea. Something that might really jolt things and shake them up, though dealing Williams or Musgrove accomplishes that to some extent too.
Clevinger and Lynn being available seems destined to hold everything up. It also makes sense that the Reds would decide to flip Bauer. The most recent chatter I'm seeing is again Minnesota looking for controllable pitching, with the possibility of Kirilloff or Larnach as what teams want. Both are slightly out of reach for what Williams or Musgrove could pull – and the Twins reportedly refused to include them for Stroman last year – but the Twins are deep at those positions and looking to win now. If they would cover Frazier as a utility guy plus Musgrove or Williams, maybe you'd really have something there, but it's hard not to assume that they'd look to Lynn and Clevinger first, since they are better and controllable.
The wild card is still San Diego IMO. Preller doesn't seem like he's done, but you have to figure he will want to avoid to deal Gore while the Rangers and Indians would want to see if he caves there. It also just seems like in general, lots of teams are primed to throw their hat in the ring this time, which could lead to a number of surprises.
Other players who might be available have years of control and probably some appeal to teams concerned with both cost and control, but the flip side of that is that they may very well decide not to use up their assets. It's hard to predict and it's not a great situation to deal from, other than the fact that Cherington can probably pretty much do whatever he wants and receive some praise, because inaction will be what most of us, myself included, blame him for.
Gut feeling? Toronto matches up very well for a Williams + Gonzalez trade. Atlanta seems possible as a Musgrove destination, and I suspect Frazier's versatility and track record will see his market heat up today. I'm hoping to some extent that all has been quiet in part because Cherington has been working something relatively big or surprising. It's not a likely possibility, but I mean something like Bell to the Yankees as part of a Clint Frazier + prospects type of idea. Something that might really jolt things and shake them up, though dealing Williams or Musgrove accomplishes that to some extent too.
Clevinger and Lynn being available seems destined to hold everything up. It also makes sense that the Reds would decide to flip Bauer. The most recent chatter I'm seeing is again Minnesota looking for controllable pitching, with the possibility of Kirilloff or Larnach as what teams want. Both are slightly out of reach for what Williams or Musgrove could pull – and the Twins reportedly refused to include them for Stroman last year – but the Twins are deep at those positions and looking to win now. If they would cover Frazier as a utility guy plus Musgrove or Williams, maybe you'd really have something there, but it's hard not to assume that they'd look to Lynn and Clevinger first, since they are better and controllable.
The wild card is still San Diego IMO. Preller doesn't seem like he's done, but you have to figure he will want to avoid to deal Gore while the Rangers and Indians would want to see if he caves there. It also just seems like in general, lots of teams are primed to throw their hat in the ring this time, which could lead to a number of surprises.
bigdaddyk88
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Well if catching gets what Padres just sent on Nola stallings is available.
I wonder if Atlanta would do Musgrove brault and Moran for Riley and Tousant.
Stallings to Tampa for prospects Ronald herndez and our friend baez
Kela to Minnesota for Ryan Jeffers C
Frazier to the Yankees Antiono Gomez c
I wonder if Atlanta would do Musgrove brault and Moran for Riley and Tousant.
Stallings to Tampa for prospects Ronald herndez and our friend baez
Kela to Minnesota for Ryan Jeffers C
Frazier to the Yankees Antiono Gomez c
Empoleon8771
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DJ Spinoza
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I don't think Heyman is really plugged into the Pirates or for that matter a lot of the chatter that goes on. He obviously has sources but I think they are largely connected to Boras, who he is basically a mouthpiece for.
I don't doubt that our chips are not exceedingly coveted, but I think it depends on what teams are looking for and what they want to give up. Pitching is always in demand and costs a lot. A utility player with a good track record of contact as well as streaks where he is really good like Frazier might have value, and Gonzalez I think has sneaky value due to how good he is defensively and the fact that some teams could use a fill-in SS + he's cheap and controllable.
The main piece whose value is down is Kela I think, because of the injuries. I wonder if we will be able to get somebody to take a flier on him with a contingency PTBNL-deal where if he's healthy and pitches X games and/or at X performance, then we get to choose from a certain group of prospects, whereas if he doesn't hit those markers, we just get $1 or whatever. I think that's the only way I can see him dealt and I'm not sure how technically possible it is, but I'm pretty sure there's no hard rule against any of it. Another option would be if a team wanted Frazier or Gonzalez and also could use a pitcher, then maybe we get a better talent up front and the contingent PTBNL is prospect or minimal cash still, as part of a bigger package.
Finally, I would say that I do not think Stallings can or really should be dealt. His BABIP is sky high and he doesn't have a true track record. There's value there, but Nola has been hyped for a while and is a utility player on top of being a catcher. I don't think it's a good comparison. If we can sniff a top-100 type prospect or close with Stallings, then you have to consider it as an option, but if it's just some nice 45 FV type, I would be pretty reluctant. Unless the plan is not to try to win until 2025 and to basically not try to win with any current players, then Stallings has a lot of intrinsic value to the team as an excellent defender who can work with the young pitchers like Keller, Brubaker, and then Bolton looking at next year, not to mention if we traded for somebody like Touki Toussaint today.
I think I've settled on two things as my main wishes for us: get rid of Frazier and pick up Toussaint in a deal with the Braves. You make the right adjustments with Toussaint and he's an amazing 1-2 punch with Keller to build around starting right away next year, even if there will obviously be more work to be done. I would also add somewhat obliquely that I think Cherington may need to take a big and surprising risk to really intervene into this trade market.
I don't doubt that our chips are not exceedingly coveted, but I think it depends on what teams are looking for and what they want to give up. Pitching is always in demand and costs a lot. A utility player with a good track record of contact as well as streaks where he is really good like Frazier might have value, and Gonzalez I think has sneaky value due to how good he is defensively and the fact that some teams could use a fill-in SS + he's cheap and controllable.
The main piece whose value is down is Kela I think, because of the injuries. I wonder if we will be able to get somebody to take a flier on him with a contingency PTBNL-deal where if he's healthy and pitches X games and/or at X performance, then we get to choose from a certain group of prospects, whereas if he doesn't hit those markers, we just get $1 or whatever. I think that's the only way I can see him dealt and I'm not sure how technically possible it is, but I'm pretty sure there's no hard rule against any of it. Another option would be if a team wanted Frazier or Gonzalez and also could use a pitcher, then maybe we get a better talent up front and the contingent PTBNL is prospect or minimal cash still, as part of a bigger package.
Finally, I would say that I do not think Stallings can or really should be dealt. His BABIP is sky high and he doesn't have a true track record. There's value there, but Nola has been hyped for a while and is a utility player on top of being a catcher. I don't think it's a good comparison. If we can sniff a top-100 type prospect or close with Stallings, then you have to consider it as an option, but if it's just some nice 45 FV type, I would be pretty reluctant. Unless the plan is not to try to win until 2025 and to basically not try to win with any current players, then Stallings has a lot of intrinsic value to the team as an excellent defender who can work with the young pitchers like Keller, Brubaker, and then Bolton looking at next year, not to mention if we traded for somebody like Touki Toussaint today.
I think I've settled on two things as my main wishes for us: get rid of Frazier and pick up Toussaint in a deal with the Braves. You make the right adjustments with Toussaint and he's an amazing 1-2 punch with Keller to build around starting right away next year, even if there will obviously be more work to be done. I would also add somewhat obliquely that I think Cherington may need to take a big and surprising risk to really intervene into this trade market.
DJ Spinoza
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Here we go – this is great news, even if SDP was a good destination for one of our pitchers, because none of our pitchers were getting dealt this this happened. Now the question is Lynn.
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Man it must be nice to be a fan of a team that actually goes all in at times.
You know, actually spending money/resources.
You know, actually spending money/resources.
DJ Spinoza
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The return looks pretty decent for both teams but one thing that is kind of funny to me perpetually is how the Indians are never bad mouthed because they've had middling success in a weak division and have managed to continuously pump out good pitchers. They deserve credit for doing so, obviously, but they have pretty routinely traded their talent rather than taking the aggressive option and trying to win by spending more.
Things might change somewhat if they keep going and trade Lindor today in a huge deal. Honestly, from a baseball perspective you can make the argument – if they get a similar type of haul from the Dodgers, then they could be fairly well-primed to just keep the train moving, even if obviously being in first place and dealing guys with Clevinger and Lindor's talent certainly is something else.
Things might change somewhat if they keep going and trade Lindor today in a huge deal. Honestly, from a baseball perspective you can make the argument – if they get a similar type of haul from the Dodgers, then they could be fairly well-primed to just keep the train moving, even if obviously being in first place and dealing guys with Clevinger and Lindor's talent certainly is something else.
wheelz87
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Educate me for I don’t understand... I know about Clevinger being sent home and what not... is that the reason he was traded?
Empoleon8771
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From looking at this, I feel like the Pirates did pretty well for themselves in the initial Marte trade. Mejia was Florida's 30th ranked prospect a year ago and likely isn't MLB ready despite being rushed to the majors, and Smith seems like an alright #4 or #5 starter.;
DJ Spinoza
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It's partially that and partially that this is what Cleveland does, in the sense of both selling guys off for prospects at the height of their value / not extending them (partly small market ball, I guess) and maybe moreso that their rotation is loaded. Clevinger is really good but you can make the case that they don't exactly need him. A lot hinges on how good Arias might be, who was blocked twice over in San Diego but has a lot of hype. Baseball Prospectus people really like him.
Looks like it's going to come down to the end of the deadline for us. I really hope at the very least we do whatever we have to in order to clear the playing time for Hayes. I'm prepared to continue being disappointed.
ChaosAgent
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Would be hard for me to fault them for standing pat for any non-expirings. From a value standpoint, our team hasn't done itself any favors this year
DJ Spinoza
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I guess this at least part of the way satisfies me if we do nothing.
I still think 1-2 trades are possible.
DJ Spinoza
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