Cherington’s hands were kind of tied between it being a weird year, some trade chips being injured, and everyone else kind of being awful.
OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Tanking underway
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excited for hayes, but man hard to believe an almost 24 yo top 50ish prospect is what we have to get excited about. cupboard is more of a crappy ikea shelf than a cupboard and evne thats bare
DJ Spinoza
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I think Hayes is going to be a star.
I think @xlm34 is right. The only thing I would add is that once again there was a tradeoff that teams had to negotiate in terms of what they wanted to give up vs. what their short and long-term needs were. The Pirates trade chips all have relatively clear surplus value that you can look up if you want to draw up possible returns, but surplus value being tied to remaining years on the contract is kind of a double-edged sword, especially when you bring some middling performances or injuries into the picture.
At the end of the day, I think Kela was the impact option that would have been great to sell, since relievers as always were getting a nice return. It's hard not to be bitter that he was hurt. The other pieces could have been nice in the right scenario, but nobody puts a team over the edge. It's not unstrategic of Cherington to just keep waiting for winter, where most of the players he has will hold almost the same value, and the teams that didn't make moves now might want to be more aggressive then, if they don't see what they are looking for and have a kind of barometer lined up on how much they can spend.
It comes back to Huntington's ability to get safe, secure talent for which the sum of all the parts doesn't make an impact. I had some hope that Cherington would surge really aggressively, trying to work in a three team deal or something with a surprise willingness to part with certain guys in order to get an impact prospect, but easier said than done.
I think @xlm34 is right. The only thing I would add is that once again there was a tradeoff that teams had to negotiate in terms of what they wanted to give up vs. what their short and long-term needs were. The Pirates trade chips all have relatively clear surplus value that you can look up if you want to draw up possible returns, but surplus value being tied to remaining years on the contract is kind of a double-edged sword, especially when you bring some middling performances or injuries into the picture.
At the end of the day, I think Kela was the impact option that would have been great to sell, since relievers as always were getting a nice return. It's hard not to be bitter that he was hurt. The other pieces could have been nice in the right scenario, but nobody puts a team over the edge. It's not unstrategic of Cherington to just keep waiting for winter, where most of the players he has will hold almost the same value, and the teams that didn't make moves now might want to be more aggressive then, if they don't see what they are looking for and have a kind of barometer lined up on how much they can spend.
It comes back to Huntington's ability to get safe, secure talent for which the sum of all the parts doesn't make an impact. I had some hope that Cherington would surge really aggressively, trying to work in a three team deal or something with a surprise willingness to part with certain guys in order to get an impact prospect, but easier said than done.
DJ Spinoza
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Not a shocker and perhaps some indication of what we'll be in store for over the winter. It's a bit paradoxical right now, because we could use a strong finish from both Williams and Musgrove, but at the same time it's better to sell out totally for as high of a pick as possible.
Those who have been thread regulars know that it is pretty much against my nature to root for ongoing misery and losses, and especially this year, everything is so chaotic that all we really need is a white hot streak and we'll feasibly be able to make the playoffs. I'm sort of incapable of taking anything related to this season seriously at all, so I just hope we can be bad enough to at least secure a top-2 or 3 pick. If we can guarantee one of Rocker or Leiter, it will be a huge boost to the organization.
I am excited for Hayes tonight, but beyond that, reasonably entertaining baseball and mostly series losses is what I'm looking at. We'll see what happens over the winter. I suspect that Musgrove and Williams will have pretty stable values no matter what, as long as they are healthy. Both kind of are as advertised at this point. Kuhl might get some hype behind him but unless he finishes on an ongodly tear, I'll assume that the injury still suppresses his value. I'm of the mindset that we should extend him as a rotation anchor, but you have to see what kind of deals are out there.
I think realistically, we need to invest in some rotation glue guys, because it's easier said than done to get dependable but not dominant MLB pitching. There's an argument that you should try and replace this caliber of pitching as cheaply as possible, and I'm willing to entertain it, but it ultimately comes down to when you want to compete. If we're basically writing off 2022 already, then go buck wild with the trades, but I think any team writing off 2022 right now is a joke. I can abide next year as a transition year, with more trial and error and young players finding their way, especially given the interruption this year, but the plan should be to build for a window starting in 2022, and a guy like Kuhl or Musgrove could be an important glue part of that. We've gotta pick the right one and throw some money at them, and you could argue that it'd be worth investing in both, or one of them and Williams, as your 3/4 or 4/4 types. The big questions are whether Keller can be in the top part of the rotation, whether someone like Bolton might pop up, and then finally how we can acquire someone else who might be an option there – that's why I was / still am hoping we go after Toussaint and see if Marin can help him make adjustments and find consistency (and if not, he's a very good multi-inning guy I think).
Final stray thought on deadline / next year is that we need to bring Kela back on a one year deal. Hopefully he sees it as a chance to build value and have an inside track at leverage/saves, and we should see it as a way to hopefully actually have him as a trade chip. Him going for a fresh start makes sense and I imagine someone will be willing to pay him something decent, but if we can get him on a modest one year contract, it's a "risk" we need to embrace.
Empoleon8771
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Hayes absolutely smokes a double for his first hit, was maybe about 3 feet away from being a homerun.
DJ Spinoza
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dogthateats
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DJ Spinoza
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It's just one game but the fact that he's got the modified stance plus the word about high EVs in Altoona should have everyone hyped out of their minds. I'm not being hyperbolic – if he hits for even fairly decent power, like 20-25 HRs, he's a 4+ win player. Probably more.
ImporterExporter
"You're a boring old man"
And yet the Pirates are still late to the party.
Should have been up from day one based on his glove alone. YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME!
If he hits, he's EASILY a 4 win player. He's probably going to get 1.5 to 2 wins just based on a defensive value if he does what he did throughout his minor league career.
He's got a little room to fill out from the looks of it as well.
why would anyone with half a brain waste a year of control on this dumpster fire?
ImporterExporter
"You're a boring old man"
Well, i happen to believe you should actually try to win sporting events. Hayes gives you a better shot to do that than anyone else on the roster IMO, at least anyone that can play 3B. Now, if the Pirates are legitimately tanking then fine. I get it. I'm just sick of the Bucs slow rolling prospects, year after year, simply because of SUPER 2!!!!
Maybe this winter we'll actually discover how to trade a baseball player for actual assets. Then again, that would require a player like Josh Bell to actually maintain a BA above the Mendoza line. There is no hope for Polanco. He's shot. Should be in AAA based on #'s alone but just watching him a handful of times this year....yeah, he's done with us. Maybe he'll get moved and become what people thought he would, but the dude is simply not a big league ball player at this point.
I'd like to see more young players brought up. Should help us tank further and get a look at what we have in the upper pipelines.
The point your ignoring is that avoiding super two does help them win sporting events. Just not in the immediate. 5-10 million dollars Per prospect over the coarse of there arb years is a huge difference for a smaller payroll team.
ImporterExporter
"You're a boring old man"
Polanco is 9 for 79.
For the bean counters that is .114/.193/.329
Oh, 37 K's in 88 PA's. That's an insane 42% K rate.
There are pitchers who give you better production in this league.
For the bean counters that is .114/.193/.329
Oh, 37 K's in 88 PA's. That's an insane 42% K rate.
There are pitchers who give you better production in this league.
ImporterExporter
"You're a boring old man"
If you keep playing the game the way it used to be played, it will leave you behind.
-Me, though I feel like Billy Beane could have said this about 2 decades ago.
If this team actually tried to field a winning roster, we'd generate a ridiculous amount of money with the local markets and that would then translate into national audiences, or at the very last, a better TV deal for you locally.
More viewers, more fans = more money.
polancos season was over almost as soon as he stood up from that collision
thats not how it works at all actually. Tv money doesnt come from actual ratings it comes from how many tvs have access to the channel, whether they watch it or not. Winning 3 more baseball games isnt going to expand the media footprint at all.
a good example is Rutgers. The reason they are in the Big 10 is solely because it brings the NYC market to the Big 10 network. Even though nobody in NYC could give two shits about Rutgers.
Winger for Hire
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That's a hell of a debut for Hayes. Really like the look of the swing. I don't want to say "easy power" but the power stroke was fluid and didn't look like he was muscling up for it; just barreled it and let every piece of the equation do its job.
My biggest fear is that we're left with another ARam situation. Having a star 3rd baseman come up with nothing around him putting up very good numbers all for nothing. GMBC has a lot of work ahead of him this winter to get the club in some kind of direction that makes sense because there's nothing really around Hayes to build on right now.
Here's a quick snapshot of the Pirates' position players' OPS+ this season:
My biggest fear is that we're left with another ARam situation. Having a star 3rd baseman come up with nothing around him putting up very good numbers all for nothing. GMBC has a lot of work ahead of him this winter to get the club in some kind of direction that makes sense because there's nothing really around Hayes to build on right now.
Here's a quick snapshot of the Pirates' position players' OPS+ this season:
ImporterExporter
"You're a boring old man"
Rubbish.
If you create demand, you create access. This is as much politics as it is monetary.
Create a winning culture and you create viewers, regardless of market. If people want to watch Pirates because they're a top level baseball team, then you're going to get access. Cause and effect.
Winger for Hire
Praise Beebo
Viewers don't equal money, though. The Pirates don't sell the ad space on TV, which is where the uptick in viewers equate to money gained.
DJ Spinoza
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The mitigating factor with Hayes was covid, but I think even the most charitable interpretation of the management decisionmaking is that they are 2-3 weeks too late with getting him free reps at the MLB level. At this point, every single team in the league plays this same game, so it's somewhat pointless to bat around ideas about it because it's a structural reality until there's hopefully a better CBA.
I think developmentally, you run risks with service time manipulation because if a guy debuts late, then struggles a bit, you may indirectly have the effect of dampening his prime years. I don't think this is a drastic concern for Hayes, since he's just 24, and - at least insofar as you get get a look in one game - it looks like he might not dramatically struggle to adjust to the level.
What I'd say overall is I think what I was saying last winter, before any of these contingencies popped up: Hayes was probably ready for ABs from day 1 of the season, but unless he really tore the cover off the ball in spring training, I was fully anticipating super two manipulation. Basically the same thing played out except he had covid and had to recover. At this point my attitude is sort of whatever, he's here now and it's exciting. We might have a player to build around.
I think developmentally, you run risks with service time manipulation because if a guy debuts late, then struggles a bit, you may indirectly have the effect of dampening his prime years. I don't think this is a drastic concern for Hayes, since he's just 24, and - at least insofar as you get get a look in one game - it looks like he might not dramatically struggle to adjust to the level.
What I'd say overall is I think what I was saying last winter, before any of these contingencies popped up: Hayes was probably ready for ABs from day 1 of the season, but unless he really tore the cover off the ball in spring training, I was fully anticipating super two manipulation. Basically the same thing played out except he had covid and had to recover. At this point my attitude is sort of whatever, he's here now and it's exciting. We might have a player to build around.
This is just wrong.
the unless those people are going to move to pittsburgh from across the country to inflate the media market, it wont do a damn thing.
its just not how it works.
the pirates had the 7th highest tv rating in 2018. Look at that windfall.
Maybe it’s just the hype surrounding him, but Hayes feels different than a lot of prospects we’ve brought up recently. It just seems like he’ll be a star.
If some of the prospects like Cruz, Gonzalez, and Swaggerty develop, then you’ve got the makings of a really nice team. It’s also why I think getting one of the Vandy pitchers is so important this year. There’s no guarantee they live up to the hype, but adding a legit pitching prospect on top of what we already have is pretty exciting.
If some of the prospects like Cruz, Gonzalez, and Swaggerty develop, then you’ve got the makings of a really nice team. It’s also why I think getting one of the Vandy pitchers is so important this year. There’s no guarantee they live up to the hype, but adding a legit pitching prospect on top of what we already have is pretty exciting.
DJ Spinoza
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Going forward, I think we have lots of questions, which goes without saying. I am still a believer in Reynolds as a 3+-win type of player. I am increasingly optimistic about Tucker, but we'll have to see. Newman I think can slot in at 2B and give you pretty consistent performance, speed, hopefully reasonably high OBP at the top of the order. Besides depth, I don't have any worries with Stallings as the 1A catcher.
Then things get dicey. My take on Bell is increasingly that we should toss our hat in the ring for an extension, which I guess is a hot take that might ruffle some feathers, but I think it's the best bet to try and salvage the most value out of him possible. I think you buy his arbitration years out and get him to give up 1 FA year on the hope that he takes the guaranteed pay day instead of the risk that he continues to wallow in inconsistency and has to take a prove it contract his first year of FA anyways.
This would allow you cost certainty and some flexibility. If he performs well, you might have a great chip at the 2021 deadline, or into the winter, with the possibility of universal DH which would make him easier to trade. In an ideal world, he performs well and your team looks pretty decent, which means you can keep him around heading into a 2022 season where your competition window is actually a bit open. You then again potentially have a deadline piece if things don't work out, or a guy on a reasonable one year deal to trade in the winter if you really go for it.
I don't know if this is feasible, but I think the risk/reward is worth it and it's the best chance to take some pressure off and see if you can recoup value. The other option seems to basically be dumping him for mediocre return this winter. If he finishes well and a team offers something half decent, I'm at the point where I'd just take it, but it's hard to anticipate that being the case.
SS and CF are increasingly big questions where there are a number of possibilities but no clear answers. I've warmed up slightly to Tucker in CF, especially with Gonzalez being a moderate surprise (even as he's cooled off) who might be tradable in the winter. But I still think Tucker should get a kind of extended look there, or at least a kind of time share. Newman isn't the SS answer. If Tucker hits, you might have a 3ish WAR guy there, which would couple nicely with Hayes. I can squint and see it, but it's unclear the organization sees him in that way anymore since I don't think he's even played an inning at SS this year.
We also don't seem to think much of Oliva, who would be worth giving a cup of coffee in this last month too. I don't mind seeing if you can get some adjustments and performance out of Alford and in some ways at least, he's a more exciting guy to have in the mix as your 4th OF option next year. A big question is going to be Cruz, who maybe suffers the most from a lost season. Do you go for the huge payoff and keep him at SS, or do you basically just turn him into a RF/CF and plug him into this group next June, in a hopefully normal season?
I'm willing to say, not just based on one game but as something I've asserted for a long time, Hayes is a cornerstone to build around. If Cruz can get that level, then between those two and Reynolds, we have a nice offensive core emerging. But that's a big if, and I have not even said anything in this long post about pitching. We need a healthy Keller and an investment in one of the starting pitchers as an anchor for the next 3 years or so. Ideally we turn our tradable assets into possible pitching help this winter. And of course, getting Kumar after watching Hayes impress for 4 weeks would be a dream come true.
Then things get dicey. My take on Bell is increasingly that we should toss our hat in the ring for an extension, which I guess is a hot take that might ruffle some feathers, but I think it's the best bet to try and salvage the most value out of him possible. I think you buy his arbitration years out and get him to give up 1 FA year on the hope that he takes the guaranteed pay day instead of the risk that he continues to wallow in inconsistency and has to take a prove it contract his first year of FA anyways.
This would allow you cost certainty and some flexibility. If he performs well, you might have a great chip at the 2021 deadline, or into the winter, with the possibility of universal DH which would make him easier to trade. In an ideal world, he performs well and your team looks pretty decent, which means you can keep him around heading into a 2022 season where your competition window is actually a bit open. You then again potentially have a deadline piece if things don't work out, or a guy on a reasonable one year deal to trade in the winter if you really go for it.
I don't know if this is feasible, but I think the risk/reward is worth it and it's the best chance to take some pressure off and see if you can recoup value. The other option seems to basically be dumping him for mediocre return this winter. If he finishes well and a team offers something half decent, I'm at the point where I'd just take it, but it's hard to anticipate that being the case.
SS and CF are increasingly big questions where there are a number of possibilities but no clear answers. I've warmed up slightly to Tucker in CF, especially with Gonzalez being a moderate surprise (even as he's cooled off) who might be tradable in the winter. But I still think Tucker should get a kind of extended look there, or at least a kind of time share. Newman isn't the SS answer. If Tucker hits, you might have a 3ish WAR guy there, which would couple nicely with Hayes. I can squint and see it, but it's unclear the organization sees him in that way anymore since I don't think he's even played an inning at SS this year.
We also don't seem to think much of Oliva, who would be worth giving a cup of coffee in this last month too. I don't mind seeing if you can get some adjustments and performance out of Alford and in some ways at least, he's a more exciting guy to have in the mix as your 4th OF option next year. A big question is going to be Cruz, who maybe suffers the most from a lost season. Do you go for the huge payoff and keep him at SS, or do you basically just turn him into a RF/CF and plug him into this group next June, in a hopefully normal season?
I'm willing to say, not just based on one game but as something I've asserted for a long time, Hayes is a cornerstone to build around. If Cruz can get that level, then between those two and Reynolds, we have a nice offensive core emerging. But that's a big if, and I have not even said anything in this long post about pitching. We need a healthy Keller and an investment in one of the starting pitchers as an anchor for the next 3 years or so. Ideally we turn our tradable assets into possible pitching help this winter. And of course, getting Kumar after watching Hayes impress for 4 weeks would be a dream come true.
DJ Spinoza
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Alford with the start tonight, curious to get a look at him. Another new face we may never get to see – Fulmer was DFA'd to make room for Musgrove and Osuna was optioned back to Altoona.
Riddle is low-hanging fruit to pick on now with no real place to play him. A good guess on Fulmer is that he was picked up just in case we made some trades involving pitchers. I certainly would have liked to see him get a small look over a guy like Neverauskas, but it's at least feasible that Fulmer might not get claimed because the entire AL did not claim him when he got to us.
Hayes moving up a spot in the order. I'd actually like to see him towards the very top, in the #2 spot, but no need to put the cart before the horse just yet. I'd love it if he keeps hitting and we get a Tucker or Newman + Hayes 1-2 punch at the top of the order. With Hayes' speed, he could be an ideal candidate for the #2 spot in the order. The other reason to have him higher, as well as Tucker, is simply that it means more reps.
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