OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Tanking underway

[ChaosAgent]

Have they fully updated it or is it just last year's with the new guys slotted in? Pipeline confuses me because they do quickly add the new guys, but they also have annual updates to the whole list. The reason I ask is that based on their top-100 rankings, which came out last week, Hayes should be ahead of Gonzales.

Regardless of when the deck is shuffled and how it look, I think the point about 45FV and depth is spot on. It seems like there is good depth all around now, and if things really go well, in 12-18 months you could have similar depth with more guys rising to 50 ratings on top of it. Hayes graduating will be a dent, but with the draft you should immediately add a 50 with pick 1.1 and probably 40+ or potentially 45s in the comp round and round two.

So much of the top-end talent, especially the arms, are in the lower minors. Which means that with a good season they should be 45-50+. Or they wash out.

Either way I expect the Pirates to have 6ish top-100 guys next year. For arguments' sake I'll go with Gonzales, Rocker/Leiter, Preister, Thomas, Peguero and...Mojica.

Unfortunately I'm starting to really think Cruz will bust, but maybe I'm just overreacting to his winter league numbers.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I think it's going to be a huge year for Cruz to how whether and how much he can hit upper minors pitching. Definitely can make an argument that it's the biggest story over the first few months, or up there anyways.

And I think that's a good guess with the top-100, with Cruz's position likely depending on whether he can show some consistency. If he can, he will definitely be on the list, whereas if he struggles a bit, I imagine people will be quicker to doubt him, but he's also still very young, and there's potential for him to be a big power, lesser hit guy, so unless he really struggles, I'd guess he'll still make the back part of a lot of lists. Still, it feels like a lot is riding on this year for him, and that he especially could have been hampered by the year off.

From the sound of it, Escotto might also be a darkhorse candidate to make a list, and I'd have Malone and Head as possibles. With a lot of the talent still being young, there's some fluctuation, and even a really ideal situation of the list expanding to 8 or so won't guarantee much.



Seems like any trade possibility has slowed to a hault, but maybe now that free agency is thinning out, things might pick up again. I think we need to add a veteran SP and something in the pen – I really wouldn't mind a reunion with Kela, and I think that would be a good "gamble" to take with giving him a competitive guaranteed amount of money plus the opportunity to close. I guess in theory, RichRod closing and on a very modest + controllable contract would make him even more tradable, but getting some bullpen talent is really the least we can do to generate some clear trade chips, with a veteran SP like Porcello being more for general leadership and stability. If BC has a trade up his sleeve with another one of his starters, then we should really make the modest investment in a guy like Paxton, but it seems like a foregone conclusion that we'll just pick up Porcello for 2-3M and call it a day.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Doesn't sound like there's a big chance of it happening, and I guess it'd just be a veteran bench bat, but I'm still not particularly enamored by a veteran hitter. For bench/backup roles, I'd rather take another flier on an opportunity-type player who has recently been DFA'd, like Basabe from SFG or Demeritte from DET.

I guess as one bench bat, a true veteran like Choo or similar would round things out ok, but leadership-wise I just think pitching makes more sense. As much as I don't like him, we should probably give Moran maximum ABs to see if he can generate interest as a deadline piece, and I think there are enough players to cover the position spots elsewhere, although I suppose given Alford and Polanco's injury histories, another OF wouldn't hurt. But even then, there's Oliva, someone like Tucker in a temporary capacity, or perhaps a younger player like Mitchell or Swaggerty, if we're far enough into the season before we need them. Some bench depth is not going to complicate matters much, but I think we need it most at pitching.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Multiple moving parts here, but obviously Heim was a name that many linked/desired for Frazier dating back to last offseason. He's also getting lots of praise from Kiley and Eric, and Eno Sarris mentioned that pitchers love throwing to him, so it makes potentially missing out that much more disappointing.

If Andrus rebounds to a 2-3 WAR player, this might not look too bad, but it's still a bit puzzling for Oakland. There's money exchanging hands and also being shuffled with Davis, but it's still kind of a hefty price for a good defensive SS. I don't think this comparison is too great, but you almost wonder if we might have had a shot with some combination of EGon and Frazier, as Gonzalez would give them the defensive prowess and Frazier would be a good utility bat addition to the lineup. A lot probably hinges on how you view Andrus.


I've seen some rumblings in all the hubbub about the Dodgers payroll that maybe the Pirates could take on most of Price's contract in order to "help" the Dodgers get back below the tax threshold, and while that's obviously not going to happen, maybe as a more ludicrous idea, we might be able to involve ourselves in a trade where Toronto ends up with Price and another player (Frazier? RichRod?), with us taking back Roark's contract and getting an array of prospects. I think it's more likely that Toronto will just try to sign somebody like Paxton, but no matter which way we look at things, they probably would be enticed by somebody taking Roark's contract, and that'd be a perfectly fine way to get a veteran innings eater and buy some prospects.

Ultimately, putting aside random unlikely speculation, it seems like it might be slim pickings for Frazier. There's a chance that some stacked teams like NYY or ATL could still find him appealing as a bench utility bat, but it might be the case that they keep waiting on him for now. I have few doubts that Cherington has aggressively put his name out there.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Multiple moving parts here, but obviously Heim was a name that many linked/desired for Frazier dating back to last offseason. He's also getting lots of praise from Kiley and Eric, and Eno Sarris mentioned that pitchers love throwing to him, so it makes potentially missing out that much more disappointing.

If Andrus rebounds to a 2-3 WAR player, this might not look too bad, but it's still a bit puzzling for Oakland. There's money exchanging hands and also being shuffled with Davis, but it's still kind of a hefty price for a good defensive SS. I don't think this comparison is too great, but you almost wonder if we might have had a shot with some combination of EGon and Frazier, as Gonzalez would give them the defensive prowess and Frazier would be a good utility bat addition to the lineup. A lot probably hinges on how you view Andrus.


I've seen some rumblings in all the hubbub about the Dodgers payroll that maybe the Pirates could take on most of Price's contract in order to "help" the Dodgers get back below the tax threshold, and while that's obviously not going to happen, maybe as a more ludicrous idea, we might be able to involve ourselves in a trade where Toronto ends up with Price and another player (Frazier? RichRod?), with us taking back Roark's contract and getting an array of prospects. I think it's more likely that Toronto will just try to sign somebody like Paxton, but no matter which way we look at things, they probably would be enticed by somebody taking Roark's contract, and that'd be a perfectly fine way to get a veteran innings eater and buy some prospects.

Ultimately, putting aside random unlikely speculation, it seems like it might be slim pickings for Frazier. There's a chance that some stacked teams like NYY or ATL could still find him appealing as a bench utility bat, but it might be the case that they keep waiting on him for now. I have few doubts that Cherington has aggressively put his name out there.

I'm not going to address all of this, but I think there's a wider question of how disastrous it would be to bring back Kuhl, Brault and Frazier at least for the start of the season in terms of blocking people.

Arguably there isn't any market for Frazier now but there would be something by the TDL if a contender's 2B gets injured or their game falls off a cliff or something. If he does come back he'll get most of the starts at 2B with some outfield work mixed in. I don't think the franchise would be too annoyed about partially blocking Oliva against tough righties, but I do wonder how they would feel about Frazier taking ABs from Newman at 2B. I think Tucker should really be the SS this year because he has actual upside but that means Newman to 2B. I suppose at that point the question is whether Newman is even good enough to be part of a successful team there. His lack of power production (1st row homers during the year of the juiced ball notwithstanding) to me just limits his upside especially because he can't stick at SS. I don't hold out much hope for Newman honestly. So if Frazier comes back, eh why not.

For Kuhl and Brault I have no issues bringing them back if Cherington would rather roll the dice up until the deadline. They are blocking no one.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I'm not going to address all of this, but I think there's a wider question of how disastrous it would be to bring back Kuhl, Brault and Frazier at least for the start of the season in terms of blocking people.

Arguably there isn't any market for Frazier now but there would be something by the TDL if a contender's 2B gets injured or their game falls off a cliff or something. If he does come back he'll get most of the starts at 2B with some outfield work mixed in. I don't think the franchise would be too annoyed about partially blocking Oliva against tough righties, but I do wonder how they would feel about Frazier taking ABs from Newman at 2B. I think Tucker should really be the SS this year because he has actual upside but that means Newman to 2B. I suppose at that point the question is whether Newman is even good enough to be part of a successful team there. His lack of power production (1st row homers during the year of the juiced ball notwithstanding) to me just limits his upside especially because he can't stick at SS. I don't hold out much hope for Newman honestly. So if Frazier comes back, eh why not.

For Kuhl and Brault I have no issues bringing them back if Cherington would rather roll the dice up until the deadline. They are blocking no one.

Yeah, I think that's the more relevant question, since any speculation about larger deals is really just that, and in this case, you have a team like Texas obviously shedding money, and a team like Oakland always conscious about money.

Given some kind of adequate return, I think it is the case that it'd be better to shuffle off Frazier before (or I suppose during) spring training, but I guess the flip side is that things are thin enough that it's not too likely that anyone will be fully blocked. If both Tucker and Newman start thriving, Frazier can probably revert to most of his ABs in the OF, since it's not likely that we'd be in that situation with Alford and Polanco also thriving.

But I guess the gray area would basically be in giving Newman (or I suppose Tucker, but I agree re: how their positions should be handled) enough ABs to try and see if he forces the issue at all. I think this year should firmly be a "let the kids play" year, but even then, I'm not so high on either Tucker or Newman that I think it would be a nightmare if they were still forced to fight for ABs in the early-going of this year. The x-factor that we can't know right now is whether and what kinds of deals are out there for Frazier right now. It seemed like he was asked about enough that there would be something there, but maybe it is the case that we're better off waiting to see if there's an injury, or if there's a contending team that more urgently feels their lineup is unbalanced around the time of the deadline (see: Yankees).

I might even say that it's all kind of a "meh" scenario, in the sense that I'd really like to see Tucker come out and grab the bull by the horns in spring training to earn the job. I don't really understand the approach they took with Tucker last year, unless maybe it was in part to get a firm look at Newman, and now they're positioning themselves to do the same with Tucker -- I am thinking here of the comments earlier this offseason that Tucker will be only an infielder again. This is getting to be a very meandering response for an agreement, but I guess one thing I wonder is whether Newman might now be developed as a utility player. I think that would make him more valuable going forward, since I think he's more light hitting than we'd want, and he's not going to live on AVG year in and year out. So, in short, if we can get something for Frazier and have Newman primarily be the 2B, that's fine, but if not, maybe Newman can start coming off the bench and get some looks in the OF as well.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Yeah, I think that's the more relevant question, since any speculation about larger deals is really just that, and in this case, you have a team like Texas obviously shedding money, and a team like Oakland always conscious about money.

Given some kind of adequate return, I think it is the case that it'd be better to shuffle off Frazier before (or I suppose during) spring training, but I guess the flip side is that things are thin enough that it's not too likely that anyone will be fully blocked. If both Tucker and Newman start thriving, Frazier can probably revert to most of his ABs in the OF, since it's not likely that we'd be in that situation with Alford and Polanco also thriving.

But I guess the gray area would basically be in giving Newman (or I suppose Tucker, but I agree re: how their positions should be handled) enough ABs to try and see if he forces the issue at all. I think this year should firmly be a "let the kids play" year, but even then, I'm not so high on either Tucker or Newman that I think it would be a nightmare if they were still forced to fight for ABs in the early-going of this year. The x-factor that we can't know right now is whether and what kinds of deals are out there for Frazier right now. It seemed like he was asked about enough that there would be something there, but maybe it is the case that we're better off waiting to see if there's an injury, or if there's a contending team that more urgently feels their lineup is unbalanced around the time of the deadline (see: Yankees).

I might even say that it's all kind of a "meh" scenario, in the sense that I'd really like to see Tucker come out and grab the bull by the horns in spring training to earn the job. I don't really understand the approach they took with Tucker last year, unless maybe it was in part to get a firm look at Newman, and now they're positioning themselves to do the same with Tucker -- I am thinking here of the comments earlier this offseason that Tucker will be only an infielder again. This is getting to be a very meandering response for an agreement, but I guess one thing I wonder is whether Newman might now be developed as a utility player. I think that would make him more valuable going forward, since I think he's more light hitting than we'd want, and he's not going to live on AVG year in and year out. So, in short, if we can get something for Frazier and have Newman primarily be the 2B, that's fine, but if not, maybe Newman can start coming off the bench and get some looks in the OF as well.

For Newman I do think there's value in a guy who can come off the bench and make contact. So many bench bats come in cold and just get blown away. Maybe as a util he could be decent. The issue as we're both saying is that he doesn't hit the ball with any authority and he isn't good enough defensively to stick at short (IMO, short and catcher are the only positions where a contending team can feel good about a glove-only guy).

 

[Scandale du Jour]

Warning: If you do not want to discuss the Pirates, don't. Do not come in here and judge the people that do follow the team. Some of us still follow them even if ownership sucks... and we know it sucks. No need to discuss it ad nauseam.. especially if you do not follow the team. We respect your choice, respect ours.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Warning: If you do not want to discuss the Pirates, don't. Do not come in here and judge the people that do follow the team. Some of us still follow them even if ownership sucks... and we know it sucks. No need to discuss it ad nauseam.. especially if you do not follow the team. We respect your choice, respect ours.

Thank you for this!

 

[Scandale du Jour]

Thank you for this!

Do not hesitate to report posts/PM me if you see people trolling. I am reading the thread every day (not commenting a lot because I do not have half the knowledge you guys do), but I might miss stuff.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

If anybody wants to feel really old...

 

[ChaosAgent]

If anybody wants to feel really old...

I still remember that magical night before Memorial Day.

Of course when I look at the video now it's clear he was juiced to the gills, but still.

 

[ChaosAgent]

We got a guy: Pirates Sign Chasen Shreve To Minor-League Deal

I'm all about getting high-potential flippable bullpen pieces for this year. Smart signing.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Agreed, he should be very flippable if he hits. Somewhat surprising he agreed to a minor league deal, but I guess that's the nature of free agency at the moment.

My assumption is still Porcello next, and unless there is a surprising trade, I sort of hope we keep it there.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Promising story from Mackey today on Keller: Mitch Keller on rotation leadership, gaining velocity and using his changeup more

Of note: 1) Marin saying that they are planning to build the rotation around him leading it; 2) his velocity is back to where it had been, and he's feeling generally much better; 3) he has a new changeup grip and plans to use it a bit more to play off the fastball.

If #2 and #3 are correct, then combined with the new slider and curveball, he should certainly have some success, and hopefully we will be hearing rumblings about actually making him a cornerstone. He's arbitration controllable through 2025, with another bare minimum year in 2022, so I don't know if an extension will be in the cards so early, but it could be the kind of thing where if he is seeing some solid success, you gamble on the longer-term deal and hope he continues to improve in 2022 as well.

The timeline is obviously far out to try and think about, but I don't really know if he'd be interested in that kind of extension, since he's currently lined up to hit free agency in his age-30 season. A lot of variables, but at least from a Pirates PR perspective, if the payroll this year is going to be an absolute joke of 35-40M, then a "let the kids play" situation that has mid-season or postseason long-term commitments to Hayes and Keller as cornerstone players for the future might go a long way. I'm a bit skeptical, though – it seems like for big extensions, the most likely candidates are very young, usually Latin American players looking for security, or else more fully established, mid-arbitration guys who obviously end up costing a lot more to keep.

One thing we haven't discussed as much recently with the comparisons to early-Huntington era was the way he managed to get players like Cutch under control as bedrock, cornerstone types. We never did it with a pitcher, and I think standard operating procedure is to avoid that given the risk of injury, so I'm not going to hold my breath. Either way, the most important thing is Keller taking firm steps forward in 2021 to be a true front of rotation type talent.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Keith Law's system rankings came out for The Athletic and he has the Pirates ranked 16th, noting however that it's a "system on the rise." This is kind of bizarre and I think speaks to the sense in which Law is totally washed, since even by his own seeming criteria and standards, they were 14th last year so "on the rise" after another injection of talent doesn't quite add up.

It'll be interesting to contrast it with Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen, the latter of whom I don't think does straight up rankings, instead having a system where the ranking is implicit in the total value of the prospects. On both talent and depth, even if you toss out Hayes, I don't think there's much legitimacy to the 16th overall ranking. As someone who follows these things reasonably closely, we should end up in the top-5 of FG's list, and once Hayes graduates, perhaps will fall slightly out of it, depending on a few rankings.

Law's rankings seem to be more like generic assessments of organizations than anything else. I wonder if some biases about prior stuff such as underperformance and developmental issues in general also factor in here. These aren't unimportant, but if so, they are sort of intrinsically hard to rank, because now for example, we have seemingly shifted dramatically, and we won't know the results of that shift for several more years. So it's not fair to penalize for the inability to get the most out of Cole, etc., but it's also not accurate to just blindly believe the development is better. This is where FanGraphs obviously has a significant edge, since the quality and quantity of information is much deeper than even Law's specific system rankings.

Still, it will be interesting to see what McDaniel says at ESPN when his list comes out, since presumably it will be almost as overall/general as the list from Law, but with the benefit of being much more plugged in. I have the sense that Law's list is much more just Keith Law's personal preferences, which is fair enough, but the others also have the benefit of sourcing more thoroughly, which gives you at least some window into the inaccessible question of how the industry actually looks at them.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Keith Law is a hack.

If those players were wearing a NYY cap, the system would be top 10 easily.

You can't rank them 14th last year, and then 16th the following year, given the ridiculous depth they've added in said year, especially considering they still call Hayes a prospect.

These people make waaaay too much money to write such drivel.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, there's some kernel of truth to his general idea that the system is on the rise – i.e., it's currently in good shape and has some potential to really pop off.

I can even see, to some extent, not loving the top end of the system after Hayes. There are some questions about Cruz's hit tool, maybe you aren't enamored with Gonzalez, want to see Priester over actual games, etc. But I think the flip side to that is just how extreme the system takeoff could be. Preister's surging, Cruz could cement himself as an extremely exciting prospect with a solid few months, Gonzalez gives you a really solid, above average regular, then some combo of Priester, Thomas, Peguero, Malone, etc., plus younger international guys like Mojica and Escotto.

It is what it is – I don't think most of us need Law's rubber stamp of approval. Honestly, the main Pirates thing I associate with him at this point is being incredibly high on Newman. Cherington has done a good job building out the system, and the next big tests will be whether some more top-100 talent can pop off and whether they can steer the development of the prospects closer to MLB.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Regardless of what Law and any other takes are out there, the bulk of the names in the system are guys that'll be in L-A, H-A and the summer leagues this year. Aside from the hitters in AA.

How high or not the prospect commentariat rank us at this time is irrelevant. Those players collectively have the power to make themselves a top...1 system by the end of the year or prove the more pessimistic commentators right. Or somewhere in between.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

The way things are set up makes for an interesting parallel story of sorts this season. Prospect-wise, that's basically the case: a bunch of talent in the low minors, headed up (at the moment) by Priester and Gonzales, but also containing several other names that could pop off. Then you have the situation with a possible young core in Pittsburgh, headlined by Hayes, Keller, and you hope Reynolds, maybe others.

It's tempting to place a heavy amount of emphasis on Cruz as a true x-factor, since the ideal situation would be both sides of the parallel hitting, along with Cruz looking like he'll establish himself (maybe getting a debut by season's end, but I think that's extremely unlikely for both performance and cynical reasons). In any case, there's lots to be excited about, even if it definitely won't all work out. Gun to my head, with brazen confidence in Hayes as a cornerstone, I'd probably rate things of MLB importance as 1) Keller establishing FOR potential; 2) Reynolds' hit tool, modest pop returning; 3) some other young player emerging as above average, every day talent.

I don't even think we need fully decisive steps forward, but if Reynolds can be a 2.5-3 WAR guy, and somebody like Tucker, Swaggerty, or Bolton looks like a 2 WAR player or better, that will be a good step forward. Honestly, were I to rattle off a "prediction" out of nowhere, to an extent, I'd probably place it on Tucker. I do not fully understand the way he was funneled into the outfield last year, since so much emphasis seems to be placed on athleticism and tools, which Tucker has in spades. I would bet he'll be given lots of opportunities to succeed, incluing the inside track at starting SS.

 

[Knives and Tulips]

Interested in maybe following the Buccos again....maybe

Anyone kind enough to give a brief rundown of the top 10 prospects? Starting roster and rotation?

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I'll try and circle back to do so, and I'm sure others can do the job more aptly than me. Hopefully, the FanGraphs Pirates list will come out tomorrow (if not, it's going to be delayed another week I assume, since next week is prospect week there), as that will have all the info you could ever ask for and more about prospects.

If you want a good deep dive that has lots of video, here's a writeup from the @piratesanalysis twitter that I found last week: Scouting: Pittsburgh Pirates Top 20 Prospects – TDK Baseball

Just wanted to make a note here that Kiley's Pirates list is up at ESPN. I'm not sure what the precise rules about sharing it are because it's paywalled, but it's very good news. He has Hayes 6th, still noting that it will be rare if his game power consistently outpaces his raw power (in the manner of Betts or Lindor), and he has Cruz pretty high (28th) too. Both Swaggerty and Pegeuro are rated 50FV and on the list, which gives us 6 total for him (with the others being Gonzales and Priester).

I've never been shy about being bullish on Hayes, but I do agree that his right tail outcome is going to depend on that in-game power. I remain really optimistic that he will consistently get to the power in games, but I think it will obviously be even easier to make this projection after 2 or 3 months of seeing him in a normal season. He's an athletic, smart player who has a great hit tool and has continued to make adjustments on his swing, so the exit velocities aren't just coming out of nowhere. The one curveball for this eye test is whether or not he'll have any modicum of lineup protection this year.

I won't go as far as to say I think Hayes will be a mega-star, MVP type candidate, but I think the realistic window of outcomes is between a 15-18 HR guy who does everything else well, and something north of that, power-wise. If you forced me to make a guess, I'd say that he will be more in the former camp immediately, except with tons of XBH as well due to the speed, and I wouldn't bet against him being able to increase the power as he gets more and more comfortable in the league. I am praying that we can get him to agree to something very similar to the extension that we gave Cutch.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

This is a nice depth pickup. Unless we carry three catchers, I'd assume he may start out the year in AAA with Perez also in the fold, but I think Perez has some options left so probably no guarantees.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Hayes impressed me more than anything by his ability to DRIVE the ball to opposite field. And he did it regularly. That is a sign of a batter who has big IQ IMO. Most guys don't display those traits, with that kind of power so early. It's very rare to see. I don't think anyone saw that coming.

Obviously there will be regression and pitching staffs will adjust to his tape. But I'm about as bullish as you can get moving forward and I'm generally not with guys coming up in the system based on past results. He'll win a bunch of gold gloves (provided he doesn't get f***ed because he plays for Pitt) at a minimum and at 3B that's worth 2 WAR at least. He's got a chance to be a regular 6+ WAR player and that would easily put him into the AS category with another level to ascend to if the hit tool ends up being elite.

 

[Fogel]

Scouting is a bit of a mess considered the lack of leagues that have been playing and such. I think some public prognosticators are being more conservative with the types of players who are most affected by the lack of reps and competition.