OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Tanking underway

[DJ Spinoza]

For continuing to double down on the depth, I think the next steps to a successful offseason besides due diligence on any possible trade candidate is some kind of modest investment in a weak market. I'm not sure a huge amount will be possible (to eventually trade, not to actully spend now), but we should at least take a crack at a bit of pitching.

Taking on a contract would also be an obvious way to do this, though I don't know if the Yankees would be that keen on moving Ottavino. But even a deal where you swapped RichRod for Ottavino and picked up 1-2 guys, maybe an Abreu or a Florial who is taking up room on the 40-man, would make for an even nicer overall retooling this offseason. It's the same principle if you can get some vets to peddle at the deadline, but certainly a guy like Ottavino would be a "cleaner" way to do it if the Yankees would play ball.

I expect Frazier goes and that might be it. There's been interest in Kuhl and Brault, so I could see that continuing given the relatively weak market of pitchers, but we shouldn't be in a huge hurry. Maybe there's an outside shot that Frazier and a pitcher could be bundled together – that would work in theory for both LAA and TOR, I think. I'd love it if a team was willing to bite on Moran, but the chances seem low enough, and unless we definitely have a reasonable replacement like Moreland, might as well just wait. Hayes needs some modicum of lineup protection next year.

 

[TooManyHumans]

Defending something that's been historically inept is also the most obvious yinzer thing to do.


A rebuild is about maximizing value not fire selling everything you can. The Pirates aren't a mattress store going out of business.

Trading Bell "because he sucks" is a terrible take and void of all critical thinking. He had an off year last year but was trending upward every single season of his career. He was a year removed from a 37 HR, 116 RBI campaign. He also made the ASG that year. Would it be crazy to think he'd improve upon his .226-8-22 pace from last season? Did you know the trade deadline has historically been the period when contending teams overpay for players?

Trading Taillon for a couple of prospects in the teens in a bottom-third minor league system in the league is also not too smart knowing the skill Taillon has flashed and the larger payoff he would give you if he performed and you waited to trade him at the deadline. You can read a bunch of tweets about people saying "hey this prospect didn't look bad" and think the Pirates got great value here I guess. *Hint* You can find those tweets about every prospect.*

Next you'll try to tell me Evan Rodrigues isn't affecting the first line.

Cherington is making the most of what he was given to work with and has already completely renovated the farm system. Yinzer thought is what leads to us treading water by hanging onto guys who are not part of the future and signing washed up name players to show that the Pirates are "trying." What we are seeing now is the first actual instance of the Pirates legitimately trying that I can remember.

 

[Big McLargehuge]

I'm furious at ownership and will rip management everything I can for not spending...but I have no issue with trading the players the Bucs have traded this off-season.

I will absolutely raise hell when ownership doesn't re-invest that money into anything other than a drivable humidor or some dumb rich person bullshit, but getting what you can for risky assets when you're coming off a last place season and aren't near competing again isn't a bad idea.

I'm angry that it's come to this, but not so angry with the trades themselves.

 

[pistolpete11]

I'm furious at ownership and will rip management everything I can for not spending...but I have no issue with trading the players the Bucs have traded this off-season.

I will absolutely raise hell when ownership doesn't re-invest that money into anything other than a drivable humidor or some dumb rich person bullshit, but getting what you can for risky assets when you're coming off a last place season and aren't near competing again isn't a bad idea.

I'm angry that it's come to this, but not so angry with the trades themselves.

Frankly, people should be upset this didn't happen sooner. Huntington's plan (or maybe it was Nutting's directive) to shoot for mediocrity and hope to get lucky and sneak into the playoffs was ill-conceived from the start. Once the Cutch & Co. window was closed, they should have burned it down then and started over. If they had, we might have a good team by now instead of starting from square 1 with nothing to show for it.

Of course, the most upsetting part is not spending the money or assets to put those Cutch & Co. teams over the top. Hopefully we get to the point where we find out if Cherington would have done it differently.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Just look at our top 30 prospect list now on MLB.com

You'd be hard pressed to find many groups deeper and in July we're only going to add to that with the #1 overall + a few other top 100 picks. Then you figure we're almost surely going to be the worst team in baseball or in the running and the next 2 years will go a long way in telling us if 2023-2026 is a realistic window for contention.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Frankly, people should be upset this didn't happen sooner. Huntington's plan (or maybe it was Nutting's directive) to shoot for mediocrity and hope to get lucky and sneak into the playoffs was ill-conceived from the start. Once the Cutch & Co. window was closed, they should have burned it down then and started over. If they had, we might have a good team by now instead of starting from square 1 with nothing to show for it.

Of course, the most upsetting part is not spending the money or assets to put those Cutch & Co. teams over the top. Hopefully we get to the point where we find out if Cherington would have done it differently.

I wouldn't rule out the possibility that this plan was pitched and Nutting shot it down.

Really I think that stretch in July 2018 changed everything, for 2 reasons:
1) 11 game win streak convinced them they were closer than they thought.
2) No fans showing up during the 11 game win streak convinced them that the fan base had reached the point of no return and they needed to "go for it" again. In the end they bought in on a guy that NH had locked in for years and traded out 2 divisive prospects which blew up in their face.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

From all that's come out, I think we know it was Nutting's plan. Huntington had a mandate to try and win rather than teardown, and a hard cap of what he could invest in the team.

Huntington had other weak points as a GM, and I think in general a full refresh is looking like a good thing. There's been so much weird contrast between NH and BC in response to these trades which kinda ignores what we know about NH's marching orders and budget vs. what we know is a totally blank check to do what he wants in BC's case.

The biggest cliche that those writing about the team should be leaning on is concerning player development. I think this is the case in the obvious sense of guys like Cole completely exploding in other organizations, but maybe even moreso in the sense that a small budget team also needs to really develop a stable of good everyday, supplemental type talent. Over a period of several years, Huntington was quite good at developing around a tight core, and maximizing a small amount of resources in free agency and trade deadline deals to get that kind of talent, but realistically, you put yourself in a much better position if you are able to have not just a good wave of some impact talent, but also a deep wave of guys who can supplement and round out that impact talent.

One of the underrated fallbacks to NH was that there weren't really a lot of players who ended up doing that. Instead, I think a kind of holdover mentality from his regime is actually the way that solid MLB depth type guys were sometimes expected to be better than they were because that middle core, of the depth behind the solid guys, was lacking in some years.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I am generally optimistic about Cherington, and that's increased when looking at the totality of results so far as the plan comes further into shape.



However, this is the exact kind of thing that would give me some more organizational confidence going forward. Our pitching depth is thin all around and could use some veteran presence as well. Ottavino is still quite good in the right role (he's not so great against lefties, otherwise pretty dominant), so this is the kind of thing where a 9-13M investment could net you free prospects to further add to the depth.

It's just one deal, and I expect some activity in free agency anyways for us that's similar, but relieving Ottavino's contract for this kind of return would have been a perfect move for us. You get a veteran to help lead in the bullpen who will easily be flippable at the deadline for another prospect. The only slight risk is if he gets injured, but even then, the contract is only for this year.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Id like to throw in my 2 cents on the guys we got in the trades.

out of the 11 guy returned i categorize 2 as filler (and thats probably being harsh), two as mid tier prospects and 7 (yes 7) as pure helium.

Filler

Bednar - mlb ready middle reliever not much to get excited about

Crowe - mlb ready Sp5 or swingman, has a tad more upside but eh overall

Mid tier

Fellows - stuff but is a longshot

Cruz - doesnt have the stuff will probably wash out in upper minors once batter catch up polish wise.

Helium-

All have upside, and were acquired before a big breakout increased their value to a poknt where they werent available. Not all will have that breakout obviously but depending on source all have been mentioned as borderline top 100 guys or guys to watch for breakouts.

It sure beats getting guys like Moran etc.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

The Musgrove trade is somewhat of a weird one in retrospect, just because there are so many different kinds of prospects in it. I think I said this earlier, but the obvious read on it seems to be that the FO is really high on Head and decided that they wanted to target him and really build the package around that. The athleticism and bat speed seem like obvious traits BC covets, but it's kind of interesting since the collection of players from NYY for Taillon seems more solid overall.

The curveball in it is Lucchesi -> Rodriguez, who seems like the second best prospect in the deal but almost a kind of happy accident, since Lucchesi is ok but not anything too special.

I do wonder a little bit what kinds of other packages could have been out there for Musgrove. Playing Monday morning quarterback and just really repeating something I said a number of times, I might have liked Woods Richardson from TOR as a centerpiece over a guy like Head. New York media is saying that Toronto, Tampa Bay, and Boston were all asking/offering for both pitchers, though what I saw was more firmly linked to Taillon (and Sherman saying that they had an offer of four quality prospects for him).

Hard to say, Head kinda grew on me compared to my immediate reaction, and in general it's still too early to form too much of an opinion. For example, if Cruz can add an ok third pitch and a tick or two of velocity in AA next season, the deal suddenly looks a lot more interesting. Cruz himself is a good example of how deep San Diego's system is and what we need to be aiming for in 4-5 years. He was just a notable name on last year's FG list and likely will be the same on our list when it comes out this year, but that's what really good international programs coupled with drafting and development can get you.

 

[ChaosAgent]

The Musgrove trade is somewhat of a weird one in retrospect, just because there are so many different kinds of prospects in it. I think I said this earlier, but the obvious read on it seems to be that the FO is really high on Head and decided that they wanted to target him and really build the package around that. The athleticism and bat speed seem like obvious traits BC covets, but it's kind of interesting since the collection of players from NYY for Taillon seems more solid overall.

The curveball in it is Lucchesi -> Rodriguez, who seems like the second best prospect in the deal but almost a kind of happy accident, since Lucchesi is ok but not anything too special.

I do wonder a little bit what kinds of other packages could have been out there for Musgrove. Playing Monday morning quarterback and just really repeating something I said a number of times, I might have liked Woods Richardson from TOR as a centerpiece over a guy like Head. New York media is saying that Toronto, Tampa Bay, and Boston were all asking/offering for both pitchers, though what I saw was more firmly linked to Taillon (and Sherman saying that they had an offer of four quality prospects for him).

Hard to say, Head kinda grew on me compared to my immediate reaction, and in general it's still too early to form too much of an opinion. For example, if Cruz can add an ok third pitch and a tick or two of velocity in AA next season, the deal suddenly looks a lot more interesting. Cruz himself is a good example of how deep San Diego's system is and what we need to be aiming for in 4-5 years. He was just a notable name on last year's FG list and likely will be the same on our list when it comes out this year, but that's what really good international programs coupled with drafting and development can get you.

Based on how much he signed for, Head had a late 1st round grade. So that's worth a lot.

Cruz you know what you're getting; lefty low-90s guy whose effectiveness will entirely come down to the development of his secondary stuff and his location. I like LHPs but I got burned by Rudy Owens and Cruz seems like Owens 2.0. Or maybe he's Brault with better control, which'd be a mid-rotation guy easily. We'll see.

I don't know how to feel about the catcher. Low bonus but lots of hype.

All-in-all, I think the Taillon package was better as Yajure should be a mid-rotation guy at least and either Escotto or Smith should hit. There's even a chance Smith reaches Pittsburgh in late '21 or early '22.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah those are solid points. I think I just don't trust the profile of players like Head because it seems so rare that that kind of player truly hits. But, for starters it's really early to even say anything like that in the first place, and with the tools he also has some reasonable floor options in terms of still having an MLB role to play.

The signs I like most about him are the bat speed and athleticism. If you look at some of his pre-draft swings, they are pretty ugly, so it's a good sign of both natural talent and also coachability that he's made some adjustments. I think he's got a real chance to shoot further up the rankings reasonably quickly, so all told, I don't want to raise unfounded doubts.

To the extent we can compare the two trades, I think there's bigger risk/reward with Head, and better floor/overall package with Yajure. Yajure is a pretty polished product who has reached MLB. You look at that command + delivery and see he's going to be able to at least give you a quality bunch of innings out of the back of the rotation. What tips the trade and makes me like the Taillon return more is that I like Contreras and especially Smith, and Escotto seems like a great fourth player in any deal. But at the end of the day, it's a fairly long developmental track so we'll have to wait and see. Despite the fact that a lot of the players are roughly the same age/experince, I think the three in the Yankees deal have a solid shot to start factoring into the picture by the 2022 season, whereas the other players are just a touch further off.

 

[CrosbyMalkin]

Anyone that waste their time watching the Pirates I feel sorry for you. Why watch a team that the owner won't support a competitive team? We will spend less than a quarter of what the top spending teams will spend. Even if in 5 years this team develops some prospects they will be gone shortly after when we have to pay them.

Until baseball makes owners pay minimum that is in a close range of each other it isn't worth watching. In all other pro league's the teams spend close to the same money due to caps put in. So any team can win if managed correctly. Your chances or slim if other teams could literally triple you teams budget. Imagine the Pens spending $25 million with other teams spending $80 million. That is the Pirates. Sorry I have better ways to spend my time and money. If Burkle and Mario could of bought the team back when they tried the Pirates would be in a much different situation. They lost me as a fan until new ownership is in.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I really don't get why non-Pirates fans on HF come in here to shit talk the Pirates. If you don't like the Pirates, literally no one here cares what you think. I'd rather discuss actual trades and roster moves over reading yinzer-esque rants about how Bob Nutting is the anti-Christ.

By the way, MLB.com updated their prospect rankings for the Pirates after the Taillon trade. Yajure is ranked #14 and Contreras is ranked #19 in their prospect pool, but I also think it's worth noting that MLB.com also has Tahnaj Thomas at #18 overall. Fangraphs has him at #5 with a 50 FV. I think we'll also be seeing these ratings updated fairly soon, because the order on some of these guys doesn't make sense. Smith is ranked #26 in the pool while being a 45 FV on MLB.com, and there are multiple 40 FV players above him.

I'm really curious to see if Yajure has any more upside than what is being projected on MLB.com. They're calling him a high floor player who's going to be a safe bet to be a #4 or #5 pitcher, but some pitch development or adding some velocity and I think he can become a #3 as well.

 

[OnMyOwn]

Can one of you link or post who our top 20 prospects are?

I also think there should be a cap floor and ceiling but I gave up hopes on that years ago. Gotta make the best out of the current situation.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, I also don't quite understand how the MLB Pipeline rankings work. They seem to be updating them on the fly, but in general I sort of look at those ratings with a grain of salt. The analysts like Mayo and Callis aren't so bad IMO, but maybe in part because it's the MLB affiliate, the rankings all tend to skew very high. FanGraphs is still the best go-to source in my opinion, where for an overall list, Longenhagen has a pretty disciplined approach to not stick 50 FV ratings or higher on more than the top-100 prospects and then the other names just outside the cut (so about 120+ names, iirc).

Baseball America also seems like a consistent and solid choice. I don't really trust Baseball Prospectus at all – I think it was last year, for example, that they had James Marvel on the Pirates list even though he had been DFA'd by then. Just not serious. There's this newer site called Prospects Live that seems to have interesting things sometimes, but their Pirates list this year leaves some stuff to be desired so I don't really trust it. The angle they seem to be going for as a site is very disciplined/lean negative rankings, which I think is a good thing for balance, compared to Pipeline who will just throw out 50 FV ratings on guys further down lists.

This is kind of a side note but while I'm on this tangent, these recent trades have really shown how superfluous the talking point of "top 10 in organization" is. Obviously these are things that are useful enough for casual fans, but for those of us who try to follow things relatively closely, you have to think about follow up questions: how good is the overall system? Does it even make sense to compare AA+ prospects with guys who haven't even played full season A ball yet? (hint: no) And so on.

Maybe a helpful quick indicator for what I'm getting at is the kinds of 40+/40/35+ rankings that go on young players after they were drafted. Only the very top of the talent pool is going to garner some 50 or higher ratings right away. Everyone else will go lower with the possibility that their current rating improves as they develop. So when you are comparing players inside of a list, you have to account for that, and at the end of the day you get a better perspective on things by looking directly at the players and not worrying about these contextual matters so much.

Back to Yajure for one moment, he does seem like a pretty interesting case, as you would figure that even the Yankees would quite like a dirt cheap mid-rotation guy (let's not kid ourselves, the Kluber and Taillon acquisitions are true swing for the fences stuff, and it's possible that rotation could be a bit of a mess if things don't go well). I think their willingness to move him indicates a few things: 1) he's not quite ready to be truly counted on for MLB innings (the Pirates will absolutely be using this to manipulate his service time); 2) his ceiling isn't quite as high as some of the other names like Garcia, or Medina or Gil; 3) he's not really going to move their needle too much in terms of the immediate expectation to win.

Those might sound like I am being extra-critical of Yajure, but we should keep in mind that there is a bit of perspective that needs to be adopted here. I think a combo of #1 and #3 were the biggest factors in them being willing to make him a centerpiece. He's a quality young pitcher who is more or less ready to start proving himself, but mid-rotation spots on the Yankees have more of an immediate spotlight, blah blah blah can he handle New York etc. I do like Contreras as a slight project for the second piece, though I would have loved a swing for the fences move by us to get a Medina or Florial in the deal, but then you probably don't get the high quality third and fourth players.

In any case, I really like Yajure at the front of the deal a lot, because he's the kind of arm I have been hoping we'd acquire since before this offseason even began. We'll have to see what his ultimate upside is, but the fact that Longenhagen hinted that he will be a 50 FV on his list is a great sign. His delivery looks easy and comfortable and he has the command – I really liked the look of this cutter that he can throw inside to lefties. I suspect his ceiling will be determined by how much swing and miss is there, but his floor seems like a really firm rotation anchor a la Ivan Nova at his best. It's a really nice, lowkey move to get him, work him into the rotation midseason, and ideally we'll be seeing the promise of Keller stepping into a front end rotation role and Yajure stepping into a mid-rotation anchor over the next 2 seasons, giving you some good footing for 2023. Then you have a collection of other younger arms there or on the cusp this year who might work their way into the mix with Brubaker, Contreras, Kranick, Ponce, Crowe, and Bolton. If 1-2 of those guys sticks and 1-2 go to the bullpen, that's a decent things to find out in a total rebuild year, with 2022 seeming to be a "slightly more promising, let the kids play" year.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Ok, I'm back to my old school, long-ass double or triple posting ways. The last post was really meandering, so I cut it off and started a new one about the next potential steps just to separate a bit.

Looking at the rest of the offseason, I wouldn't mind seeing one of Kuhl or Brault go now. My sense is that Brault's value won't climb any higher, whereas Kuhl's value just might. Obviously, you have to get something reasonably valuable or else it makes more sense to just keep waiting. But I say this because I'd really like to see us bring in a veteran innings eater/stability guy for the rotation, _and_ a reclamation type lotto ticket as a potential trade chip. That would leave two spots in the rotation, likely Brubaker and either Ponce or Crowe to start, after you account for Keller, or perhaps it would be better to say three open spots, with Keller and Veteran as locks, and then the rest of the guys and Reclamation as competing for spots.

Porcello is an obvious name for a veteran who has won a WS, has Cherington connections, etc. It would be kind of a meh move because barring a surprise, I doubt you can turn him into much of a trade chip. Still, the rotation probably needs something like that and my best guess is we'll be waiting out things for a few more weeks to get the maximum bargain for Bobby Nutting.

I'd _love_ to take a crack at Carlos Rodon as a reclamation, maybe even with some kind of option year if he'd spring for it. In my mind Paxton and Archer would be even better, more aggressive type deals, but I doubt either is realistic given the kinds of one-year risks teams seem prepared to make. In other words, I assume we'd be too cheap or else they would be more interested in going to a better team. If we were willing to "risk" a bigger deal on one of those guys, then I'd be even more optimistic about the direction of the rebuild, but I'm not going to hold my breath. Rodon is more of a true reclamation who could really use the opportunity, and I think has the upside to net you another decent prospect or two if things work out.

To me it's a no brainer, but I think with both Kuhl and Brault in the mix, then things are a little tight since veteran + reclamation + Keller leaves no spot open for any of the younger guys. In theory that still might be fine, since Crowe is more of a depth guy, and maybe you want to push Brubaker and others to beat out a reclamation. Personally, I'd rather immediately turn Brubaker into an outstanding multi-inning reliever, but with a written off year, he should likely be in the rotation, and I'm reasonably high on Ponce to give you dependable innings out of the backend, so I'd like more opportunity open.

How I'd do it would be by trading Brault, since I think his value might only have the chance of dipping downwards. Then I'd see what Kuhl looked like and how he was feeling, etc. I'm playing out too many steps in advance, but I think one thing you could do with Kuhl if he's not going deep enough into games is revert him back to leverage reliever. That could increase his value – not as much as showing consistency and upside in the rotation, but I think it's on the spectrum of outcomes.

Ultimately, we'll see – I think the big moves have been made for now, but given what has happened with moving Bell and Taillon, I wouldn't be too shocked with any deals BC tries to wheel. Personally, I'd love to see it if he could somehow wrangle a combo of Brault and Frazier to Toronto in exchange for Manoah as a headliner, but that's probably asking too much. On FG, Manoah is still a 45+, and 2021 will probably be a big year for determining if his future is in the pen or as a workhorse in the middle of the rotation. Maybe Toronto would gamble it, but it doesn't seem like Brault and Frazier would be enough unless they were pretty down on him internally. It would be surprising to me but not absolutely flooring if BC pulled out a pretty big trade in moving Reynolds to cap off this offseason.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Can one of you link or post who our top 20 prospects are?

I also think there should be a cap floor and ceiling but I gave up hopes on that years ago. Gotta make the best out of the current situation.

If I'm in the procrastinating mood I'll maybe whip up a quick and dirty list based on my whims later today, but the new FanGraphs list should be out within the next week or two. That will also probably be the list that's the highest on the Pirates, as they were higher than other rating places on the system even before the deals and seem to like both returns, though the Padres one not quite as much. The FanGraphs top-100 list will take a little longer to come out, but I'd guess there's a reasonable shot we'll have 7 guys on the list and 1 or 2 just off the list.

If I had to guestimate right now, I'd say that we are likely the fourth or fifth best system from top to bottom. It's tricky in some sense because technically Hayes still counts, but we can count him out and factor in a 1.1 pick along with several more promising ones if we look to the draft.

Regarding cap floor and ceiling, I don't think it's possible in baseball and I'm not sure how much it would truly help. MLB owners including Nutting print money. I can buy into the argument that the Pirates can't be spending 200+ million, but there's effectively been a salary cap implemented with these luxury tax thresholds. I am also on board for the system rebuild, but if we set that to one side, there's no reason we couldn't have aggressively invested in this weak market and tried to compete this year, while we're on the topic.

I think Nutting should be ruthlessly criticized and I honestly hope it continues through the rebuild. I also get fully annoyed at the lazy "why do you watch MLB, here's the same stupid talking points from forever ago repeated ad nauseum", but that doesn't detract from what I think we all know is correct, namely the cliche that the narrative will remain the same until Nutting changes it. And I don't even mean a solid and very welcome thing like investments in Hayes, Keller, or Reynolds as cornerstones for the next wave. I mean that Nutting has to allow Cherington to spend to anticipate when he (Cherington) thinks winning is possible. That can and should mean something like potentially investing in mid-range or better free agents next winter, or especially the offseason prior to 2023.

I guess I'm in a ranting mood this morning, but I think a creeping assumption that some of us might have is that we'll cut a path similar to the path we cut under Huntington's rebuild, where there are very grim years, following by increasing success until the window is open. That's true enough, but you have to have a strategy in place and believe in your progress. With the way things look right now, there's no chance for anything in 2021, so it is what it is – get the best deals on veterans and reclamations as you can, and maybe invest in an extension for a young player. But we shouldn't be writing off multiple years in a row just yet. If a decent young core is coming together, it needs to be met adequately with investment. It's feasible that part of your strategy, for example, could be counting on a young player to emerge in 2022 rather than modestly investing in free agency. That's totally fine, but we have to cross that bridge when we get there.

My point in all this meandering is that the details of the "transition" back to success matter. Huntington did not get some things right, such as depth in the system and also the ability to get the most out of everybody once they got to the upper minors and MLB, including the 1.5-2.5 WAR type guys. I'm hopeful Cherington will be better in this regard, but the one thing I'm not holding my breath for is that Nutting will change at all. I think it will be very much "let the kids play", and hopefully the "totality" of kids will be better this time, because I can only see Nutting being willing to increase the payroll for a handful of seasons. I hope I'm wrong and that there will be a balance between sustainability and consistent investment over several years to preserve that sustainability (by paying market prices in many cases), but again, not holding my breath.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Keith Law's top 100 is out and only two Pirates made the cut: Hayes at #13 and Priester at #72. It's not too shocking, since in large part it's fairly difficult to argue for big spikes or declines, as the majority of players did not play competitive games last year.

Gonzales and Cruz seem to form a group of 4 that's in the consensus selection if you poke around at most lists. If I wanted to be a smartass, I'd say that maybe it's a good thing Law is looking past Gonzales, given how much he loved/loves slap-hitting, minimal upside guys like Newman.

I think I said this in an earlier post, but the ones I put the most stock in are FanGraphs and Baseball America. I don't think it's worth reading too much into any list right now, but the disparity between Law and Longenhagen is probably going to be funny. I bet Longenhagen will have 6 Pirates on his list, and maybe even more, or at least 1-2 guys who will be sitting just outside the list. Longenhagen/FanGraphs often also does a better job of being in on guys before their stock really starts to spike in other rankings.

If we get a mostly normal minors system, 2021 should prove to be an important year. If the right few things click, it will not take too long for the system to have a good bit of hype to go along with its depth, and the optimism will increase many times over if some combination of Hayes maintaining, Reynolds rebounding, Keller establishing, and Cruz/Swaggerty/others emerging at the MLB level. Something I was a little bit surprised to hear the other day, on an MLB pipeline podcast, was Jonathan Mayo raving about people loving Pegeuro. Between that, Priester really coming on, and a 1.1 draft pick to go with Gonzales, I think there will continue to be some hype for the low minors upside guys.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Going for the ultra-rare quintuple post. You guys will have to thread ban me.

I was thinking about this a little bit the other day, and I'd really like to to happen because I want to see 2021 used as maximum "let the kids play" time, and Frazier doesn't really fit into that. But he's also a useful player and I don't think we should jettison him simply to free up ABs and get whatever kind of additional depth prospects we can.

I think he's someone that in theory could have a slightly boosted price at the deadline. It's hard to know exactly how valuable he is – I don't mean to say that he can get some return anywhere near the ballpark of Taillon and that interesting crew. I think Oakland is probably a great match, and this trade might be somewhere that BC needs to take a risk on closer to "ready", older guys who might need change of scenery or opportunity. Somebody like James Kaprielian, though he's more of a guy with a solid future as long as he can stay healthy, albeit questionable if he can really be a starter. With all the young pitchers, it's possible we could utilize a situation where one or two of them are multi-inning guys for part of the season, and then get a look later in the season. Kaprielian would be a good gamble in that regard.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Going for the ultra-rare quintuple post. You guys will have to thread ban me.

I was thinking about this a little bit the other day, and I'd really like to to happen because I want to see 2021 used as maximum "let the kids play" time, and Frazier doesn't really fit into that. But he's also a useful player and I don't think we should jettison him simply to free up ABs and get whatever kind of additional depth prospects we can.

I think he's someone that in theory could have a slightly boosted price at the deadline. It's hard to know exactly how valuable he is – I don't mean to say that he can get some return anywhere near the ballpark of Taillon and that interesting crew. I think Oakland is probably a great match, and this trade might be somewhere that BC needs to take a risk on closer to "ready", older guys who might need change of scenery or opportunity. Somebody like James Kaprielian, though he's more of a guy with a solid future as long as he can stay healthy, albeit questionable if he can really be a starter. With all the young pitchers, it's possible we could utilize a situation where one or two of them are multi-inning guys for part of the season, and then get a look later in the season. Kaprielian would be a good gamble in that regard.

I think it's absolutely about getting vets out of the way (not to mention moving your win/loss record towards the negative which enhances draft position). You can't assess what you have if you keep trotting out super utility players, who, at this point are clearly not in the long term plans. He is just going to block guys like Tucker from getting more starts, which was something Hurdle was infamous for.

As for Law's rankings?

Hayes outside the top 5/10 is just plain moronic. First off, he's a world class defensive player. I've been on this board for years speaking on Hayes' impact there. He's a plus WAR player just on defense alone. After what we witnessed at the dish last year? Yeah, he should legitimately be considered a franchise building block. Obviously he's not going to sustain an 1.100 OPS moving forward but how many players on the prospect list profile as elite good glove defenders with middle of the order offense (this is based more on projection)?

Cruz and Gonzales not in the top 100 is absurd. I guess you could make the case on Cruz if you think the accident last year that killed 3 people will have a bad impact on him mentally. Either way, Cruz has superstar potential. Definitely more bust potential than others but his ceiling is very, very high.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

I dont expect a ton from Frazier. Im hoping we can get another teams version of Crowe or best case Yajure.

But im not expecting more than a lost his luster MLb ready number 5.

hope im wrong

 

[Empoleon8771]

I really wish they would have done that Frazier to Oakland trade last year, I was really intrigued with Heim as a return and it seems like he's MLB ready right now.

Wonder if that idea can be re-visited. Heim doesn't really fit their timeline, he's 25 already, but I don't think you're really getting a great prospect for Frazier anyway.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I think the question is probably how many teams are still actually looking and where do they value him in relation to the FA options. We should be able to get something ok for him, even if that's just somewhat intriguing guys who need opportunity/to stay healthy.

I think he might still have some sneaky value if enough teams are in on him. For example if the Yankees valued the LH bat and preferred his salary over what it would take to bring Gardner back, maybe there's something there. In the right lineup, Frazier's a pretty valuable player.



It would be hilarious if somehow a decent trade lined up and we were unwilling to pay down some of Frazier's insanely modest salary to get talent, while also having a 30M payroll ourselves.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Ok GMBC

Frazier gotta go
Rodriguez gotta go

Kuhl can go if anyone actually wants him
Brault can go if anyone actually wants him