OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Tanking underway

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cookthebooks

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i am with dj - the trade was terrible and glasnow is still maddeningly inconsistent and as such is a #3 who in sss looks like a #1
 

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Glasnow heating up.

God help this league if he manages to make the changeup an average offering. Just had to tick up the command a bit and he's an ace. Filthy 2 pitches right now.

Kershaw is locked in now as well. Nice game so far.
 

DanielPlainview

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Glasnow needs consistency, which will give way to confidence. Once he has both he’ll be Cy Young material
 

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Agreed.

He's not far off that mark. You can feel/see him clawing at the surface of ace material.

Just needs to spot the breaking ball with more regularity. If that happens, he's virtually unhittable.
 

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Tough to see TG come apart like that but not overly surprised given the circumstances.

Needs to get more early strikes and locate the breaking ball.

Simply can't walk 4, 5, 6 batters in a game and expect to come out on the winning side very often.

Not sure why the Rays didn't get him out before he went way over 100 pitches.
 

DJ Spinoza

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That's a good breakdown. I'm a little bit wary of aggregating anything from his 2020 season since it was so short, but he does a good job of contextualizing the small sample sizes. For example, I think you can explain the continued FB-reliance as part of his pitch mix by saying in part that he needed to be able to locate it much better, etc., rather than part of a deliberate strategy. Earlier in the season, it really seemed like our pitchers were only going at about 70-80%. I don't think that totally explains the FB dip, but Keller didn't have the same issues once he came back from his injury.

Overall, I think Keller has to some extent gotten the hyper-observant treatment from some fans, who hang on his every single pitch and want swinging strikes or are worried we'll see a repeat of what happened with Cole. Obviously, this attitude is understandable, but I think based on the eye test of his final starts, there's a lot to remain optimistic about with him. The big question is definitely the combination of injuries and durability, coupled with the related question of FB velo. If those things are all fine, he will instantly look a lot better almost immediately to a lot of people, because the offspeed pitches are already very good. Fastball location and consistency isn't the rarest or worst issue for a young pitcher to have to grapple with, and if anything should be a preliminary sign that Keller's potential has not been put on training wheels by the Searage/Huntington school of pitcher development (I do think, in the end, this strategy is one of the major faults actually worth throwing onto Huntington, not the utterly absurd and false stuff about him preferring to get low ceiling players all the time in trades and whatever other cliches people, including the beat reporters often, are spinning, but I digress...).
 
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I have next to zero hope for Keller. His FB is waaaaay to hittable. If you can't beat people with a FB, you almost surely won't amount to much as a starter in MLB.

Not sure if he'll rebound once he gets out of Pittsburgh but from what I've seen, he's a back end starter at best. I'd take Musgrove over him without hesitation.
 

DJ Spinoza

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Breakdown from Mayo on prospect camp: Pirates instructional league prospect report

Of particular note: Priester averaging 97mph on his fastball, touching 99; Ashcraft healthy and impressing; infield group getting praise across the board; and Gorski getting a good write-up on cutting down on the swing and miss.

Gorski in particular is a nice surprise. He's an interesting prospect who doesn't get talked about too much, in part because he had a nagging injury and struggled a bit after the draft. He's also got an interesting profile as a very toolsy but raw guy who is coming from college rather than the prep circuit. It will be interesting to keep an eye on him if some normality happens next year, to see if he might be able to pop up a level or two over the course of the season.

IMO probably the most interesting prospect towards the top of the overall list is Swaggerty. I've seen some good reports on how he's looked, and he's a guy who has a really nice ceiling if he hits it – effectively a not quite as elite defender as Kiermaier, to use the WS as an example, but a better hitter. I hope we'll be pretty aggressive with him next year.

On Priester, given how much muscle he's seemingly added, the velo spike isn't too shocking. I would expect him to start figuring into the top-100 lists in pretty short order. In his earlier pro appearances, I believe he was sitting more around 92 or 93. That's a huge spike even if it's only a small sample size for now. If he regularly sits above 95, he will get hype with lightning speed.
 
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DJ Spinoza

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Hard not to come to the conclusion that the Dodgers are again setting up to choke the WS. With no disrespect to Tampa, they've been totally outmatched in this series. LA effectively punted on game 2, and then Roberts utterly and totally failed tonight, coupled with numerous individual failures, starting with IMO the most obvious and egregious in Jansen. Jansen is terrible and Roberts has had an inability to recognize it for years. It's even more terrible now that he easily has three better weapons in the pen.

We'll see if Glasnow can step up tomorrow. You have to figure that the Rays have a fighting chance now, with a three game series and their best pitchers. On paper, you still tilt tomorrow's matchup to the Dodgers. I'm very much in the camp that Kershaw's postseason difficulties are overblown, but the Dodgers again seem set up to fail. The bullpen is a wreck and the Rays have all the momentum now. The saving grace for the Dodgers is that they have 4 or 5 MVP-type players in their lineup. The Rays pitching could really make a decisive statement tomorrow.

I think you have to again have the short leash with Glasnow. Challenge him to step up after he tapered off last time, but if I got 5 shutdown innings from him, I'd be counting my blessings. Anything more than that is a bonus in this situation.
 
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DJ Spinoza

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It was a deserved win for LA at long last. Tampa was outmatched for the whole series, and although it's a bit reductionistic to say this, would have had no chance without Arozarena. I agree with what seems to be the consensus that Cash screwed up in bailing on Snell robotically. He was unhittable for most of the game and Anderson was terrible for almost the entirety of the postseason. Even if the quick hook can be defended, he had to go to someone else. He then let Fairbanks throw too many pitches.

I think Buehler would have nailed it down in game 7 regardless, but it's all moot now. Happy enough for Kershaw. Really wish it wasn't Urias who ended it. f*** that asshole.
 

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I still can't believe Snell was yanked in game 6. When he's on, which is more often than not, he's a Cy Young caliber guy. And he was locked in. If that was an analytics decision, it is case in point on why over reliance on numbers can backfire. Sometimes you just need to look at a dude and say, "He's dialed in, f*** the computer".
 

DJ Spinoza

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I'm glad that the offseason is less than 2 days old and I can start getting mad that we won't throw a measly 10 M at Brad Hand. This winter, things will be on easy mode for Cherington to do what he did early in the Boston tenure and sign/acquire veterans to low-term deals with the possibility of flipping them at the deadline or just going for it if the team congeals. Everybody is going to cry poor, where the Pirates have obviously been ahead of the game for several years.

Setting aside the larger view, Hand in particular would be an easy acquisition. Hell, you could just scoop him up and then eat the 10 M to trade him at the winter meetings for prospects.

Excited to hate the sport even more in three months.
 

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We stole a consensus top 5 player this year in Gonzales and added some nice pitching depth in the next few rounds. Next year we should come away with Rocker and hopefully another starting caliber P/C in the 2nd. Cherington has a strong history at improving farm systems via the draft and thus far (small sample size) I am impressed.
 

DJ Spinoza

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Nothing sexy, but Perez is a pretty solid backup catcher and it's a nice complement to have a lefty to pair with Stallings.



In general, mostly good here to see us moving on from a chunk of players. There are some arguments that can be entertained for some guys IMO, but I think this kind of roster churn is a necessary step this offseason, again bracketing the very obvious conclusion one could reach that if we even pushed the roster up to 90M with what will be on the market for what price, we'd be half decent very quickly (which has nothing to do with these replacement-level types).

In particular, I liked some flashes out of what I saw out of Tropeano, but who knows with relief pitchers.
 
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DJ Spinoza

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No surprise, especially with much better contracts getting declined. Curious to see in what situation he ends up in.
 
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