OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Spring [training] is here!

[Gallatin]

Frasier now with a wind assisted Homer to left. 6-1 Bucs

 

[cookthebooks]

early in spring but starting to feel like 162-0 incoming

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Today is another Rocker - Leiter doubleheader. Rocker's line: 5 IP, 3 H, 3 BB, 6 Ks. A solid enough line but do not like to see the 3 BBs. If Leiter continues to sit around 95mph I'm going to be fully on board with him and I go back and forth on Hill too, since he seems to flash the tools that might make him ultimately the best.

 

[Gallatin]

O'neil Cruz is in the batters circle.

 

[Gallatin]

Today is another Rocker - Leiter doubleheader. Rocker's line: 5 IP, 3 H, 3 BB, 6 Ks. A solid enough line but do not like to see the 3 BBs. If Leiter continues to sit around 95mph I'm going to be fully on board with him and I go back and forth on Hill too, since he seems to flash the tools that might make him ultimately the best.

I don't like either of these guys physiques. Rocker is too heavy for his age, and Leiter looks great but doesn't have a big frame.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Today is another Rocker - Leiter doubleheader. Rocker's line: 5 IP, 3 H, 3 BB, 6 Ks. A solid enough line but do not like to see the 3 BBs. If Leiter continues to sit around 95mph I'm going to be fully on board with him and I go back and forth on Hill too, since he seems to flash the tools that might make him ultimately the best.

Rocker gives me Glasnow vibes.

Whether we'd take someone like Glasnow at 1-1...not sure.

 

[Gallatin]

Rocker gives me Glasnow vibes.

Whether we'd take someone like Glasnow at 1-1...not sure.

Yeah that too. I'm falling off the Rocker-wagon.

 

[Gallatin]

A nice summary of Cherrington's recent work.

Ben Cherington Had One Of The Best Off Seasons In Years

 

[ChaosAgent]

Yeah that too. I'm falling off the Rocker-wagon.

How did you resist the chance to make the "falling off my Rocker" pun.

Honestly you should lose points for that dude.

 

[Gallatin]

Cruise worked a 3-2 count then popped up.

 

[Gallatin]

How did you resist the chance to make the "falling off my Rocker" pun.

Honestly you should lose points for that dude.

I'm sorry Sir I'll try to do better next time.

Swaggerty's up next. Flied out to Center on the second pitch.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I'm sorry Sir I'll try to do better next time.

Swaggerty's up next. Flied out to Center on the second pitch.

He's a guy who is going to be under a microscope this year.

Like he could outright seize CF with a great year. And yet lots of chatter in prospect circles that his ability to be an impact bat is dimming by the day. You wonder about it affects prospects' psyche when they go from "shiny new toy" to "useful toy but has warts." Especially when they've never out-and-out failed at any level...failure to explode rather than explosive failure.

In a way this is similar to Hayes. Quite a few of us had written off Hayes' ability to be an impact bat and had him pegged as a 2-3 WAR player due to his defense. Boy were we wrong.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I'll go ahead and take the stab that Leiter will separate himself from the pack if the velocity holds. I get the concerns about his frame being smaller, but even before the velocity ticking up, his fastball played very well because of the angle it forces on hitters. He's got a clean, refined, and repeatable delivery and good feel for all his pitches.

I think the field is open enough that he just needs to keep doing what he's been able to show and he'll make himself the consensus top player. The trouble with Rocker is that so much rests on two pitches. The upside is definitely there but it's not a slam dunk. I think Hill, McLain, Lawler, and Fabian are all outside shots to be just in the mix, but my gut says that Leiter may start to separate himself here over the next three or four weeks.

 

[Gallatin]

I'll go ahead and take the stab that Leiter will separate himself from the pack if the velocity holds. I get the concerns about his frame being smaller, but even before the velocity ticking up, his fastball played very well because of the angle it forces on hitters. He's got a clean, refined, and repeatable delivery and good feel for all his pitches.

I think the field is open enough that he just needs to keep doing what he's been able to show and he'll make himself the consensus top player. The trouble with Rocker is that so much rests on two pitches. The upside is definitely there but it's not a slam dunk. I think Hill, McLain, Lawler, and Fabian are all outside shots to be just in the mix, but my gut says that Leiter may start to separate himself here over the next three or four weeks.

I love Lieter's delivery. He's very refined, and is still apparently developing potential +pitches. Could end up with three or four plus offerings, there's a big ceiling there if he can stay healthy.

 

[DanielPlainview]

$25 Rocker is sandbagging to avoid the Pirates

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I love Lieter's delivery. He's very refined, and is still apparently developing potential +pitches. Could end up with three or four plus offerings, there's a big ceiling there if he can stay healthy.

Yeah, I just like the ceiling and the floor there. I am trying to avoid forming any reactive opinions on guys, since I think ultimately the set of games is going to be decisive, but I think the most brutal way to put it is that in this situation (no conesnsus top pick), you want to look at the collection of tools and also an up arrow. I could very well be guilty of reading in what I want to see, but to me, the guys who fit this criteria best are Leiter and Hill, and perhaps Kahlil Watson if we really want to get spicy.

I don't want to be dismissive of Rocker, but I think the big queston with him right now ultimately comes down to command, and I don't know that he's going to settle that by draft time. On that front though, Leiter also struggled with command today, so I don't want to run ahead of myself. The fact that Hill already has such a great changeup is really tempting for me.

Watson is an electric prep talent who would be far away. I doubt he really ends up in the mix, but Longenhagen does tag him as the highest ceiling. With the rest of the pack I just don't see anything that stands out. From all I am reading, it has to come down to the pitchers, and Leiter and Hill seem to be a hair ahead of Rocker at the moment.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

This is exactly what I was hoping to see: Tucker with the start and also leading off. He and Newman should be trading off days/opportunities like this. Pragmatically, it gets them the most possible ABs to show off, and I think in the long run, you want to trot them out there during the season in that role ideally as well.

Assuming Frazier isn't traded (especially now that he has some minor injury), it's probably true that Frazier is the best leadoff option, but I think this is the season to find out about both of these guys. I still don't see the upside for Newman – his batting average carried him in his good year, so I doubt he reclaims that and can be more than an ok leadoff hitter with good speed. Tucker has obviously looked worse, except in very concentrated spots, but if he can both do a better job of getting on base and hit for power (two enormous ifs), then he has big upside as the leadoff hitter.

Getting ahead of myself and probably repeating myself for the third or fourth time anyways, but if Tucker did win the starting job, I am not sure I can see him, Newman, and Gonzalez all on the team. For me, it makes sense to have Evans' power bat as one of the bench guys. But maybe without the DH, you roll with the better defensive group? If Tucker loses out, I can see him going to Indy pretty easily, but if he wins the job, it's honestly hard to picture how it all works without trading Frazier. I think what I'd like to see happen with Newman is morph him into even more of a utility guy who can play all over the field. If Tucker did win, we could be bold and jettison Gonzalez, to have Newman as the primary backup SS, but I think that would be a pretty bold decision.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

This game has Statcast data but seems like it's inconsistent. Tucker reportedly crushed one into the gap which the wind got, but Statcast doesn't show any data from his AB. Seems like a good sign, inasmuch as you can look into the first AB of the spring lol.

Sounds like Keller's command isn't there today – will certainly be something to watch. He did get a swinging strike on a 97mph fastball, and the fastball is sitting at 95mph, which is a good sign.

And Alford crushed a HR to dead center. 102.7 EV.



Just watching this guy is exciting. Injuries seem like a big concern, so maybe having Goodwin in the mix to regularly spell him could help, but I gotta say, I'm probably even more keen on seeing him get everyday ABs than anyone else.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

FYI in case anyone is unaware, today's game is on TV. Brubaker starting and Oneil Cruz also getting a start with a lineup that is 70% or so likely 25-man roster, so that's cool to see.

In terms of the middle infield situation, today we have Newman at 2B and Gonzalez at SS, which I think throws the brakes on one of my early assumptions/hopes that there is a straight up competition for a starting job between Newman and Tucker. I still think something like that will end up being true - i.e., if Gonzalez becomes the starter, it will almost definitely be due to underperformance, but so far it also seems like nothing firm can be concluded besides the fact that it's an open competition. We don't know what Frazier's injury situation is, and there's also no reason why the competition couldn't extend a few months into the season if multiple guys look good in camp.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Beyond Hayes, Keller, Tucker and Reynolds as being the guys most likely to be part of the Pirates next contender, Brubaker and Alford are - I think justifiably - the guys I feel highest on for elevating to join that group.

I suppose there's also the outside chance we like, extend Brault or something.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I agree – ideally there might also be an RP or two, but it's such a volatile position that there's no point in predicting. I do like Mears a good bit.

With Alford, I really hope he plays his way into the job, since he seems like such an awesome guy to root for. Also, for selfish purposes, he still has a long number of years of control (through 2025 – just one year before Hayes' arb years end). He seems very clearly like the best shot at a post-hype breakout type player, analogous to a Max Muncy. Even if he ends up in a quasi-platoon with Goodwin, if that helps him stay healthy enough to put up some good numbers, he could be an impact guy later on. Obviously his tools grade well defensively, but I'm thinking that if you can get enough of a solid look at him this year, you might count on him in future years as a guy to rotate into the DH role sometimes to keep him on the field. Obviously, that's getting way ahead of myself, as usual.

And on that front, I would love a surprise extension with Brault. I think he's quietly had an up arrow for a while, and if things click further, he'll actually be able to be fairly impactful. Initially I wanted to just see him go along with others for more prospects, but the more I have thought about it, the more I like the move to give him a long leash to step forward this year. Even if the result is a modestly better trade return at the deadline or in the winter, it's a smart move.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I agree – ideally there might also be an RP or two, but it's such a volatile position that there's no point in predicting. I do like Mears a good bit.

With Alford, I really hope he plays his way into the job, since he seems like such an awesome guy to root for. Also, for selfish purposes, he still has a long number of years of control (through 2025 – just one year before Hayes' arb years end). He seems very clearly like the best shot at a post-hype breakout type player, analogous to a Max Muncy. Even if he ends up in a quasi-platoon with Goodwin, if that helps him stay healthy enough to put up some good numbers, he could be an impact guy later on. Obviously his tools grade well defensively, but I'm thinking that if you can get enough of a solid look at him this year, you might count on him in future years as a guy to rotate into the DH role sometimes to keep him on the field. Obviously, that's getting way ahead of myself, as usual.

And on that front, I would love a surprise extension with Brault. I think he's quietly had an up arrow for a while, and if things click further, he'll actually be able to be fairly impactful. Initially I wanted to just see him go along with others for more prospects, but the more I have thought about it, the more I like the move to give him a long leash to step forward this year. Even if the result is a modestly better trade return at the deadline or in the winter, it's a smart move.

I'd also rather extend Brault than Kuhl. Though Kuhl's raw stuff is at times much louder, Brault has left-handedness and a much better injury history to go off of as he gets into his early 30s.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I'd also rather extend Brault than Kuhl. Though Kuhl's raw stuff is at times much louder, Brault has left-handedness and a much better injury history to go off of as he gets into his early 30s.

Yeah, I'd agree with that. I don't know if Kuhl has a pitch that can get lefties out consistently. Something that got lost in the covid shuffle last year with all the injuries and weirdness was that we were effectively using both of them as 4 IP starters before the wheels came off. I think Brault is more likely to take a step forward in that regard, and I wonder how long of a leash Kuhl will have, given that it is an absolute certainty that more than 5 SP will be used over the course of the season. Kuhl should have some leash but it might be interesting to have him as a very effective multi-inning reliever.

Nice to see Cruz put together a very good at-bat against a good pitcher, including a good take for ball 4.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Yeah, I'd agree with that. I don't know if Kuhl has a pitch that can get lefties out consistently. Something that got lost in the covid shuffle last year with all the injuries and weirdness was that we were effectively using both of them as 4 IP starters before the wheels came off. I think Brault is more likely to take a step forward in that regard, and I wonder how long of a leash Kuhl will have, given that it is an absolute certainty that more than 5 SP will be used over the course of the season. Kuhl should have some leash but it might be interesting to have him as a very effective multi-inning reliever.

Nice to see Cruz put together a very good at-bat against a good pitcher, including a good take for ball 4.

I think Kuhl will be showcased to be traded as a starter.

Kuhl has good stuff. If you fixate on it you could squint and see a playoff starter in there. Cherington should be trying to get someone to bite.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I think so too, but it might be tricky in terms of him having a return from injury last year, in the sense of not necessarily being counted on to go deep into this season. However, I think a lot of teams are facing similar things with their pitching staff, regardless of whether someone was injured for 2019, because of how few innings everyone threw last year.

So there will be a lot of rotating in and out of the rotation. Longenhagen thinks that's why Ponce could be a good trade candidate, since he's quality #6 starter depth who has options left, and teams really need that this year.