OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Spring [training] is here!

[ChaosAgent]

Kranick's fastball is interesting. Not high velocity but a lot of life and deception. It looks faster than the 92 MPH it's hitting on the radar gun.

Having said that his command is poor.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, the stuff seems interesting but he had really poor command today. Tough to get too strong of a look at guys in just such a short window.

Kind of a blah short game, but nice to see Cruz work the count in both of his ABs. Hayes continues to be ridiculous – his double looked like a little flare and it practically went to the wall. Newman had a nice showing for himself, hit the ball hard once and made a very good play running out to the OF.

 

[Fogel]

Law has Leiter, Lawler, Rocker, Hill and Del Castillo as his top 5. He leans Leiter over Rocker because he thinks that Rocker has a worse breaking ball and a grade worse command.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

The only concern i have with Leiter is does his frame make him more likely for injury?

If the answer is no (as i have zero idea how his mechanic relate) the im a Leiter guy. If yes i say roll the dice that you can polish up Rockers command.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I have no special knowledge about injury projections, but I do think Leiter's delivery is very clean and repeatable. I'm still kind of leaning in that direction, as much as I don't like to be in lockstep with Law, simply because I like having some safety with the floor in our situation. We have Priester in tow, along with a lot of very high ceiling guys, so as long as you are reasonably high on Leiter's ceiling, then I think having the lesser variance is a good tradeoff, given that there's no overwhelming tool grades with other contenders for the spot.

I think he might be underselling Rocker's slider some, but besides command, my concern with Rocker is the development of additional pitches. We need a few more starts to get a sense, but if he can command and flash plus pitches with either the cutter or changeup, then I think you could still bet on the whole package ultimately coming together and the arrow continuing to point up.

Hill also intrigues me more and more. There seems to be nothing outside of previous injury history that makes him more questionable on that front, and the frame is athletic along with what seems to be good command. He's got the heavy fastball and an excellent, impressive changeup, and I've seen people say that his curveball is even better than the changeup.

I sort of think of it as those three in their own top tier, without much separating them. Lawler just kinda seems like a boring pick to me, projectable and all around, but will need tools to develop to really end up as an impact player. If we had a more barren farm system, then I think you could go for a player like that as someone to build around, but unless they see something that others don't, I don't see anything about him that makes it worth the pick over one of the other three who could be a front of rotation pitcher for you in 2-3 years.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Another TV game today for Pgh people – if you have MLB tv and our out of market, worth noting that the broadcast schedule on the Pirates' site isn't completely inclusive of TV games. Yesterday's game was available via the TBR telecast, for example.



Seems like Tucker is a little bit dinged up, as he was scratched yesterday, and also that Alford still isn't ready to play the field. I guess it's cool that Cruz will continue getting ABs. I think CF is the position that you move him to if you decide to move him, but to be honest I don't really like the idea of even messing around with it until partway through this season at the earliest (i.e., let him play SS everyday in Altoona/Indy, and then move him if it's necessary). It's only spring training, and the mostly meaningless first week or two, though, I guess.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Another TV game today for Pgh people – if you have MLB tv and our out of market, worth noting that the broadcast schedule on the Pirates' site isn't completely inclusive of TV games. Yesterday's game was available via the TBR telecast, for example.



Seems like Tucker is a little bit dinged up, as he was scratched yesterday, and also that Alford still isn't ready to play the field. I guess it's cool that Cruz will continue getting ABs. I think CF is the position that you move him to if you decide to move him, but to be honest I don't really like the idea of even messing around with it until partway through this season at the earliest (i.e., let him play SS everyday in Altoona/Indy, and then move him if it's necessary). It's only spring training, and the mostly meaningless first week or two, though, I guess.

 

[Big McLargehuge]

I spent way too long trying to figure out who Difq is

 

[cookthebooks]

I spent way too long trying to figure out who Difq is

more like dafuq

 

[Shrimper]

Bought MLB 20 as it was £7. My god the Pirates look awful.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

I know its just spring but Bednar has been impressive.

Hopefully i was wrong about him.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I had a similar thought, seems like the stuff could play in a leverage role rather than just a guy who can maybe carry some innings now and then out of the bullpen. My guess is that he'll start the season in Indy but still be up at some point. I say this not because of performance, but because there's going to be a need for pitching consistently throughout the year, and so I doubt many guys who are out of options are going to end up jettisoned after spring training unless the performance is really bad.

I also think a non-roster guy like Shreve is a good bet to make the team. It's too bad that Indy's season is now delayed, but I think out of the gate, I'd like to see guys like Bednar and Cederlind have high leverage roles in AAA, on the assumption that there will be big league innings for them at some point.

 

[Shrimper]

Does anyone know if MLB do team only packages?

 

[DanielPlainview]

Not that I know of but MLB.tv is like $75 for the year

 

[Fogel]

From the FG chat:

12:37
Jeph: Hi Eric. Kumar Rocker’s ultimate upside seems to be similar to other power starting pitchers in recent years (electric offerings if the command comes along). Who does Jack Leiter compare to when it comes to upside? Your report on the Board suggests he’s more of a (pardon the terrible pun) jack-of-all-trades type. Does that ultimately limit him?
12:38
Eric A Longenhagen: I think that the thing the game has become best at developing is velocity, and that I’m at a point where I’m more likely to anticipate growth in velo rather than in pitchability (see: Cleveland). In this regard I prefer Leiter’s foundation to Rocker’s. But obviously it’s razor thin. Leiter’s curveball needs more power to really be a weapon. Rocker’s slider is one right now.
12:38
Old Prospector: Beyond Hayes and Keller, do you think any current Pirates big leaguers will be on the next contending Pirates team?
12:40
Eric A Longenhagen: Reynolds (as more of a solid everyday type than a star) and Tucker (who knows what he ends up being, but he’s the kind of guy who I think is important to keep around for a number of reasons, some of which is just because he seems like a great dude, some because I think he has a ton of late-bloomer traits)

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Hill got absolutely rocked today in his start – fastball couldn't be commanded too well and hitters from Oral Roberts had no issues with it when it was in the zone. He didn't make it out of the first inning.

It's clearer and clearer that there's no consensus pick because everyone has their warts, so I think the fuller set of data will probably go a long way towards helping people, along with what kind of development the team has planned for the player. Something I've heard a few times that's maybe noteworthy is that some of the best teams at developing pitchers like the Indians actually treat velocity as something that can be developed further, which for me is yet another indicator in Leiter's direction.

 

[ImporterExporter]

I'm seeing the microcosm of the instant gratification society we have evolved into over the years, right here.

It's March 5th.

Reading into what guys are doing 2 and 3 starts into the year is an effort in madness.

Rocker is working 2 new pitches into game action. I would expect his command to be up and down as he does this. If he were to go back to a strictly FB/slider combo, I'd wager you'd see the walks decrease and his overall numbers improve in this regard but that doesn't really help him grow as a pitcher.

Now if he's walking 5/6 batters per 9 at the midway point/end of the year, maybe I'll share legit concerns.

But no pitcher capable of going #1 misses bats like Rocker. No pitcher capable of going #1 has a 2 pitch combo on the level of Rocker right now. Now if you believe the Pirates have not fixed their developmental issues, namely for pitchers once they get to the upper levels of the minors/MLB, then Rocker is probably not your guy.

The only worry about Rocker is command. That's it. He doesn't have injury issues. Lack of resume issues. Frame issues. These are issues that plague both Hill and Leiter.

A quality major league staff and analytics department should be able to iron out Rocker's delivery and improve the ability to hit spots more often. We saw this with us vs Tampa in the Glasnow debacle.

The question is do we have that in place now under Cherington?

Either way, until you get a legit sample size this year, nothing changes for me.

 

[ChaosAgent]

A quality major league staff and analytics department should be able to iron out Rocker's delivery and improve the ability to hit spots more often. We saw this with us vs Tampa in the Glasnow debacle.

I don't know if you take a Glasnow 1-1.

I'd of course love to have Glasnow, but he has a career ERA of 4.43 and a WHIP of 1.34. Even a Glasnow-on-the-Rays outcome isn't a slam dunk 1-1 in my mind. Still too many command questions.

Tyler Glasnow Stats, Fantasy & News

 

[Empoleon8771]

Idk I also have the take that Glasnow isn't that good of a pitcher, and just has inflated stats from his time with the Rays based on an asinine run he went on in 2019.

I think he's probably a 4.00 ERA pitcher that has the stuff to go on runs of dominating, but he doesn't have the consistency to do so. If he had another good pitch, that would change things, but him only having 2 plus pitches really hurts him.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Idk I also have the take that Glasnow isn't that good of a pitcher, and just has inflated stats from his time with the Rays based on an asinine run he went on in 2019.

I think he's probably a 4.00 ERA pitcher that has the stuff to go on runs of dominating, but he doesn't have the consistency to do so. If he had another good pitch, that would change things, but him only having 2 plus pitches really hurts him.

Glasnow is always going to be a good-great pitcher who at times looks like a perennial Cy Young winner. At times when the results are good the stuff is so fantastic that it'll look like the light switch has permanently flipped.

If Rocker is another of those I mean, I wouldn't be disappointed as a Pirates fan but I wouldn't be running to the podium at 1-1 to sign up.

Also: brief reminder that at this time last time we were in this position (2011), Rendon was the no-brainer #1. Lots of time left.

 

[ImporterExporter]

I don't know if you take a Glasnow 1-1.

I'd of course love to have Glasnow, but he has a career ERA of 4.43 and a WHIP of 1.34. Even a Glasnow-on-the-Rays outcome isn't a slam dunk 1-1 in my mind. Still too many command questions.

Tyler Glasnow Stats, Fantasy & News

I'm not saying Rocker is Glasnow.

He's already so far ahead of that the comparison would be a waste of time.

The point was that Glasnow's inability to repeat a delivery and pitch to his strengths rather than an attempt at outdated logic (pitch to contact) was highlighted by teh fact that nothing ever changed at the Pittsburgh level. They kept him doing the same thing over and over and guess what? When he finally got to the big leagues, the sheer overwhelming stuff wasn't good enough to win. I watched Glasnow pitch twice, live in the minors. At his age, he had the best raw stuff I've seen out of any Pirates pitchers at the same age, including Cole. Just wasn't refined. Some of that was probably his size as he's bigger than 99% of pitchers in the league.

Tampa almost immediately improved him. And to be sure, he's not improved enough to be a true ace. But it's light years improved from what Pittsburgh was able to do.

Rocker needs an average 3rd pitch and a touch better command on the FB. If he can locate the FB, even an just an above average rate, the slider will be virtually unhittable. If you miss too often with the FB, you simply can't use the slider as much, and hitters will see it in counts to their favor more than not. If you start pounding the edges with FB's early, it forces hitters to really gear up, especially given the life on Rocker's FB. Then, as the slider sits right now, it's a wipe out pitch at the MLB level.

This is where I bank on Pittsburgh being improved. Rocker has the body, the mental make up, and the actual game data to show his ceiling is that of a Cy Young starter. You have to have faith that the new staffs will get that 3rd pitch worked up and improve his ability to hit spots early in counts with the FB. His dad was in the business (NFL) and all signs point to him being a driven alpha. I don't think he'll be the guy that balloons like Josh Bell and fades into the land of what if.

I still believe he's the guy you stand up on the table and advocate for, especially if you're a franchise in desperate need of an ace with the attitude to build around.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I'm not saying Rocker is Glasnow.

He's already so far ahead of that the comparison would be a waste of time.

The point was that Glasnow's inability to repeat a delivery and pitch to his strengths rather than an attempt at outdated logic (pitch to contact) was highlighted by teh fact that nothing ever changed at the Pittsburgh level. They kept him doing the same thing over and over and guess what? When he finally got to the big leagues, the sheer overwhelming stuff wasn't good enough to win. I watched Glasnow pitch twice, live in the minors. At his age, he had the best raw stuff I've seen out of any Pirates pitchers at the same age, including Cole. Just wasn't refined. Some of that was probably his size as he's bigger than 99% of pitchers in the league.

Tampa almost immediately improved him. And to be sure, he's not improved enough to be a true ace. But it's light years improved from what Pittsburgh was able to do.

Rocker needs an average 3rd pitch and a touch better command on the FB. If he can locate the FB, even an just an above average rate, the slider will be virtually unhittable. If you miss too often with the FB, you simply can't use the slider as much, and hitters will see it in counts to their favor more than not. If you start pounding the edges with FB's early, it forces hitters to really gear up, especially given the life on Rocker's FB. Then, as the slider sits right now, it's a wipe out pitch at the MLB level.

This is where I bank on Pittsburgh being improved. Rocker has the body, the mental make up, and the actual game data to show his ceiling is that of a Cy Young starter. You have to have faith that the new staffs will get that 3rd pitch worked up and improve his ability to hit spots early in counts with the FB. His dad was in the business (NFL) and all signs point to him being a driven alpha. I don't think he'll be the guy that balloons like Josh Bell and fades into the land of what if.

I still believe he's the guy you stand up on the table and advocate for, especially if you're a franchise in desperate need of an ace with the attitude to build around.

Great response.

One thing I'll say about Glasnow is that in High-A ball at age 21 posted an ERA of 1.74 with a BAA of .174. We was at a similar altitude of prospect-dom as Rocker is now. Everything pointed to Glasnow being a star at the MLB level and then 2016 happened and he just...wasn't. In fact his failure to launch was a big part of the Pirates 2016 implosion. And I don't even think there were makeup issues with TG. More that he never reached a level where he had to overcome his own subpar command. And Ray Searage.

As I said, Rocker turning out to be a TBR Glasnow wouldn't be bad at all. TBR Glasnow is going to make 9 figures soon.

There's plenty of time left for Rocker to overtake his teammate again.

Tyler Glasnow Stats, Highlights, Bio | MiLB.com Stats | The Official Site of Minor League Baseball

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I'm still pretty skeptical – I think the generalizable things right now are 1) there's no consensus #1 pick and 2) we need a fuller set of data to strongly advocate in any one direction. Neither is that unusual, and I think a a fan, what I want to see is multiple players playing well and making a case for themselves.

Beyond that, I think you want to see someone who has an arrow still pointing upwards. The early talking points on this draft were that analytics-driven front offices would prefer Leiter over Rocker, but maybe it's unfair to Rocker to suggest that there aren't further gears he can get to, especially, as IE points out, because he is implementing new pitches this year.

My preference has definitely flipped to Leiter because I like the floor and ceiling combination. I think it's a reasonable bet that he can consistently get to solid velo as he gains a few more years, even if his frame isn't that big. But at the end of the day I also recognize the need for patience, at the very last 6 or 7 more starts out of guys.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Nice to see Polanco off to a great start – the key is just dialing in the contact, and so far there hasn't been a ton of swing and miss in his game. I think it pretty much is as simple as that. If he can keep it in check, he will produce. I am also cautiously optimistic about Moran in a quasi-everyday role, with a reasonable dose of Frazier, who also looks good in the early going.

Looks like Rocker threw a pretty good one today, dominating with his slider. Haven't seen a full report anywhere other than that the FB command wasn't incredible sharp, but that didn't result in that many BBs so it must not have been a major issue.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Nice to see Polanco off to a great start – the key is just dialing in the contact, and so far there hasn't been a ton of swing and miss in his game. I think it pretty much is as simple as that. If he can keep it in check, he will produce. I am also cautiously optimistic about Moran in a quasi-everyday role, with a reasonable dose of Frazier, who also looks good in the early going.

Looks like Rocker threw a pretty good one today, dominating with his slider. Haven't seen a full report anywhere other than that the FB command wasn't incredible sharp, but that didn't result in that many BBs so it must not have been a major issue.

Top Draft prospect Rocker fans 11

He was dominant today. Little bit if a shaky start with a hbp and walk in the 1st but after that he was virtually unhittable.

11 Ks with 1 BB, 2 hits, 1 hit batter in 6 innings though he'll certainly face tougher teams.

He misses bats like few pitchers I've seen at his age.