OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Spring [training] is here!

[ChaosAgent]

It would be a huge LOL if Polanco like OPSed .860 this year before being traded in July.

@Winger for Hire he's your 1st in fantasy this year, right?

 

[DanielPlainview]

If they some how manage to sell high on Polanco having a great half-season I’d be thrilled. Stockpile those prospects

 

[Empoleon8771]

If there's a competition for the SS position, Newman is definitely running away with it.

And now he's hurt.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, I gotta say, Newman's stand and swing look really good. Looks like he may have just pulled something on the most recent play, but hopefully it's minor. He's having a great ST so far. Frazier swatted a double today but if Newman can keep this up, along with drawing walks and using his speed, then he absolutely needs to be the leadoff guy.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

If there's a competition for the SS position, Newman is definitely running away with it.

And now he's hurt.

Precautionary.

His opposite field double was great. Good controlled swing. Taking what the pitcher gave him.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Lots of good swings today and some really awful defense from Baltimore.

It's still early, but barring injury and assuming Alford won't be quasi-manipulated onto some kind of injury return (since he was playing CF yesterday), then I like giving Fowler a look over Goodwin. Since Goodwin is a veteran, I think there's an assumption he has the inside track on a job/the starting CF job, but to be a bit cynical about it, I don't know how much upside there really is there. Maybe if he plays very well, you might be able to flip him for something modest at the deadline, but that seems like a stretch to me.

Alford is controllable for the longest time (iirc through 2025 or 26), so giving him the opportunity should be the highest priority, since he could conceivably be part of a contending team. Fowler has two more arbitration years after this one, whereas Goodwin would be on a one-year deal. I think there should be genuine competition in camp, and in fairness we've not even really seen much of a full-blown game yet, but so far my read is that I'd risk Goodwin not accepting an assignment to Indianapolis. The "worst" case, if he wasn't in the mix at all, would be that you end up getting an extended look at Oliva.

 

[Gallatin]

What a great great interview. This kid Leiter is just so advanced.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Interesting move here, you figure he's going to have a pretty good shot to make it as a bullpen arm. Out of options, has flashed some success in the bullpen at times but needs to be more consistent.


It looks like Leiter followed up Rocker's good start with one of his own. A ton of Ks and the FB sitting in a good spot, touching 98+. That's what we want to see from both.

 

[ImporterExporter]

What a great great interview. This kid Leiter is just so advanced.

Son of a really good MLB pitcher. It shows.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I'm in HFboards purgatory for wishing suboptimal things to Tom Wilson, but I'll keep posting in this thread.

I'm watched a good amount of this game:

• Fowler really looks like a promising reclamation project. You feel for a guy like Oliva but it's like...pretty obvious that Fowler-as-bounceback is a better choice for the organization.
• Mitchell had an AB and looked comically overmatched. I'm kinda writing him off.
• Newman looks confident up there. Hayes looks terrific as always.
• Bae is definitely a promising prospect.

Hard not to like what you saw today.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Interesting move here, you figure he's going to have a pretty good shot to make it as a bullpen arm. Out of options, has flashed some success in the bullpen at times but needs to be more consistent.


It looks like Leiter followed up Rocker's good start with one of his own. A ton of Ks and the FB sitting in a good spot, touching 98+. That's what we want to see from both.

Leiter went 5 IP. 1 hit, 3 BB's and 11 K's. 94 pitches so not great efficiency but still a quality start with a ton of missed bats.

So far the two have pitched exactly 15 innings:

Rocker

15 IP
6 h
7 bb's
1 hpb
1 wp
25 k's
1 ER

Leiter

15 IP
5 h
7 bb's
3 hpb
26 k's
2 runs (1 earned)

Couldn't get more even. Same IP. Same number of walks, base runners given up (15). Both have 1 ER against. Both could tighten up the command a bit.

Long way to go but unless Leiter does something to knock my socks off or Rocker shits the bed, I'm sticking with the latter. Will be interesting to see how these guys who've never pitched a full season hold up. Really hope Vandy goes deep in the CWS so we can get a look at these two in clutch moments.

 

[ImporterExporter]

I'm in HFboards purgatory for wishing suboptimal things to Tom Wilson, but I'll keep posting in this thread.

I'm watched a good amount of this game:

• Fowler really looks like a promising reclamation project. You feel for a guy like Oliva but it's like...pretty obvious that Fowler-as-bounceback is a better choice for the organization.
• Mitchell had an AB and looked comically overmatched. I'm kinda writing him off.
• Newman looks confident up there. Hayes looks terrific as always.
• Bae is definitely a promising prospect.

Hard not to like what you saw today.

Bae is my prospect to keep an eye on this year (beyond the biggest names). I brought him up 2 years ago when he was putting the wood to everything in low A. I know some don't want to root for the guy, but his hit (contact) tool is extremely strong and he can move.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Bae is my prospect to keep an eye on this year (beyond the biggest names). I brought him up 2 years ago when he was putting the wood to everything in low A. I know some don't want to root for the guy, but his hit (contact) tool is extremely strong and he can move.

True.

Yeah let's just call it his contact tool and leave it at that.

 

[Gallatin]

Interesting move here, you figure he's going to have a pretty good shot to make it as a bullpen arm. Out of options, has flashed some success in the bullpen at times but needs to be more consistent.


It looks like Leiter followed up Rocker's good start with one of his own. A ton of Ks and the FB sitting in a good spot, touching 98+. That's what we want to see from both.

The new guy has an upside.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I like the Underwood pickup even though I have been intrigued to see Fulmer. It just kind of seems like there's not an overwhelming reason to give Fulmer a huge leash.

Getting a really good bullpen is something that seems difficult to do over a long period, but there are at least a handful of arms with pretty good upside that are controllable for a while, and the better we can do with guys who have shorter control, the more likely we can turn that into a little bit of a factory for deadline deals.

Underwood seems like a classic scenery change guy, very much in the pitcher vein of what we're attempting to do with Alford or Fowler. I don't exactly get why the Cubs are giving up on him, with many years of cheap control left and it being a pretty big stretch that they'd even be competitive this year. They do have a number of young and interesting arms but Apostel is a flier depth kind of prospect.

Maybe this presses things a little bit too far but you have to assume that the Pirates think both Fowler and Underwood are good bets to take, since they went out and acquired both at positions where there was already a relatively full competition, so to speak.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

There's somewhat of a map to the bullpen situation, though he also leaves out Underwood, as well as Crowe or Ponce as long men, and perhaps Holmes as an outside hot.

It's still too early to really lose sleep over this, but my best stab:
Locks: Rodriguez, Stratton, Shreve, Oviedo -- first two are the veterans, barring injury they are in there. Shreve look just fine and was pursued last year, so figure he has inside track. Oviedo has to be rostered and we traded for him.

Likely: Howard, Hartlieb, Crick -- Howard did well last year, figure we'd want a second lefty. Hartlieb is soft contact merchant. Might be bold to lump Crick here but he's looked fine to me, velo is back up a little bit from last year.

If this picture is right, it would leave two spots for Cederlind, Santana, Underwood, Bednar, and Feliz, to name only the most likely candidates, plus the possibility of Ponce or Crowe as a swingman. Since we traded for Underwood, you have to assume he's more than likely making it, as he's out of options and so can't be optioned down. On pure performance, Bednar has definitely stood out so far. Feliz is out of options, more expensive than others, but we also kept him around, so who knows.

My sense: each of the guys under likely has at least an option left, so that creates more flexibility. From exposure perspectives, only Stratton, Shreve, Oviedo, Underwood, and Feliz need to be in the mix or risk losing them; obviously, RichRod will make the team.I'd guess Feliz gets pushed out, but if we take this approach, then that would mean three spots are left and they could go to my "likely" list above.

The wrench for me a bit is who takes on the role of swingman/multi-inning guy. Stratton has done this in the past, and there's no reason why a couple of the others couldn't throw two innings every now and then. I'd kind of like to see Crowe used in this capacity, see if his stuff plays up in the pen while Ponce stays stretched out in Indy for a potential spot start guy. Cederlind, Santana, and Bednar could all serve in leverage roles for Indy (I also like Mears a lot), and you assume just by attrition and injury that each of them would get an opportunity before too long. I think we will take an approach of not burning through anybody because of the uncertainties facing pitchers this year, but I don't know if that extends to Feliz, and without him pitching can't really wager a guess.

In an ideal world, a handful of guys perform well enough to be movable at the deadline for some lotto tickets, and then anyone still in Indy can end the season in Pittsburgh and hopefully keep building for next year.

 

[Shrimper]

Have I got these right, looking at the box score against the Orioles.

AB - At Bat, R - Runs, H - Hits, RBI - Runs Batted In, BB - something to do with walking , SO - Strikeout, LOB - Left on Base , AVG - Average, OPS - On base

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yes, although OPS is on base + slugging. On base is just OBP. If you really want to dive in to stats, the best and easiest starting point is probably on FanGraphs: Blogs | Sabermetrics Library.

Also, I realized that my guesses about Feliz might not be right, since I implied he might be gone because he's more expensive, but unless we have another suitor for him, we are paying that no matter what. I don't think that means he automatically makes it, since there's enough depth that we probably want to look at such that I think we'd be indifferent to paying him 1.5 M to be in Indy, but I suspect he's going to end up making it unless his stuff has collapsed or he's just really awful. He at least has the raw tools to put together a solid enough season to be flippable in a minor trade.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Neither here nor there, but I'm starting to feel the vibe that this team could be just decent enough to win 70 games and cause us to pick like #7 again next year.

Which would be annoying but if we see a step forward from Keller, Reynolds, one of Tucker/Newman, Brubaker or Crowe and maybe a Fowler announces himself as a starting MLBer...I ain't gonna be too mad about it.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Neither here nor there, but I'm starting to feel the vibe that this team could be just decent enough to win 70 games and cause us to pick like #7 again next year.

Which would be annoying but if we see a step forward from Keller, Reynolds, one of Tucker/Newman, Brubaker or Crowe and maybe a Fowler announces himself as a starting MLBer...I ain't gonna be too mad about it.

I don't think they have the pitching to do that tbh. They definitely have the hitting, but their pitching is too bad for me to think they could win that many games.

 

[Gallatin]

Neither here nor there, but I'm starting to feel the vibe that this team could be just decent enough to win 70 games and cause us to pick like #7 again next year.

Which would be annoying but if we see a step forward from Keller, Reynolds, one of Tucker/Newman, Brubaker or Crowe and maybe a Fowler announces himself as a starting MLBer...I ain't gonna be too mad about it.

Well thank the Lord then we have an inexperienced mistake prone manager to help cover up for decent players.

 

[Gallatin]

I don't think they have the pitching to do that tbh. They definitely have the hitting, but their pitching is too bad for me to think they could win that many games.

It's spring training dude. There's no way to know without seeing them play for real for a few weeks. IMO this team is so bad they can have a few breakouts and still finish last.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I think it will come down to the pitching, honestly. If it's decent and fairly consistent, then simply put, the division is bad enough that we will back into 70 wins or so without too much trouble. People often underestimate how hard it is to lose 100 games, let alone worse than that.

My sense is that there's a pretty bad floor for the pitching, especially if there are some injury issues, but it might also be ok. The bullpen has some guys with upside and no immediately obvious weak spots just yet, and I think there's promise in the rotation even if it's less likely that there's a true FOR type guy (hopefully Keller steps towards that). If the pitching gives the team a solid baseline, then I think 70 wins will be pretty likely, and anything more than that will depend on the offense, which going into the season seems more questionable in the sense that it may be the case that spots 6/7 through 9 are almost entirely empty.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I think it will come down to the pitching, honestly. If it's decent and fairly consistent, then simply put, the division is bad enough that we will back into 70 wins or so without too much trouble. People often underestimate how hard it is to lose 100 games, let alone worse than that.

My sense is that there's a pretty bad floor for the pitching, especially if there are some injury issues, but it might also be ok. The bullpen has some guys with upside and no immediately obvious weak spots just yet, and I think there's promise in the rotation even if it's less likely that there's a true FOR type guy (hopefully Keller steps towards that). If the pitching gives the team a solid baseline, then I think 70 wins will be pretty likely, and anything more than that will depend on the offense, which going into the season seems more questionable in the sense that it may be the case that spots 6/7 through 9 are almost entirely empty.

What if Brault, Kuhl, the lefty we picked up and either Brubaker or Crowe or Ponce are perfectly adequate #3-5 starters this year? Plus Yajure.

Keller aside, you don't have to squint very hard to see that scenario. In which case we just lack aces but aren't actively bad and aren't pitching ourselves out of many games. That's a 70 win team.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

What if Brault, Kuhl, the lefty we picked up and either Brubaker or Crowe or Ponce are perfectly adequate #3-5 starters this year? Plus Yajure.

Keller aside, you don't have to squint very hard to see that scenario. In which case we just lack aces but aren't actively bad and aren't pitching ourselves out of many games. That's a 70 win team.

Yes, exactly, I think all of them could be pretty adequate, which given an offense that has ups and downs against a lot of teams that are mediocre or just above average at most, means 70 wins pretty easily.

Brault and Kuhl are both question marks to me, but I think they'll be competent at worst, especially Brault, who I think can actually take another step forward and surprise some people. I like what I've seen from Anderson in the early going, and his ability to generate soft contact plus get swings and misses on fastballs up and above the zone is good to see.

Brubaker is actually someone who a lot of fantasy gurus are touting (relatively speaking). They like his combination of stuff and command. He's definitely a bit of a question mark too, but we shouldn't forget that he was probably poised to break in a lot earlier with the team before he ended up being injured. I still go back and forth on him because I think he could be an elite multi-inning guy, but we absolutely should see him as a start and I think he'll be adequate at least.

Then there's Keller – the stuff seems to have taken a step back to where it was (in terms of velocity), so fingers crossed. I think from top to bottom, what you could see is adequacy but not a ton of guys who consistently go deep in games, which means a lot of work for MRP and multi-inning guys. That's one area where some uncertainty might enter in, but in general, I don't want to say anything too firm until we at least get a look at some mostly full games out of the pitchers in ST, which probably doesn't happen for another week. But in principle, I think we have a group that can hold the fort, and in general I think this could be a team that has a hot streak for 2-3 weeks at least once, which is not the kind of thing that happens and results in more than 90ish losses.