A few scattered observations on the FG list outside of the top-100ish ranked guys (50 FV).
Malone seems like he could be one of the biggest names to keep an eye on this season, as the information on him has basically stayed consistent since he was drafted and he doesn't have much tape on him. That draft was not too long ago, and on talent alone, he was ranked right where Priester was. Priester has obviously taken a big step forward, whereas the line on Malone now reads like the similar, projectable mid-rotation SP line that Priester had. The biggest questions here are low-hanging fruit: what will the command look like? Will he maintain his velocity in games? If he answers those questions well, he should easily move into the 50 FV tier and be a top-100 prospect next year.
I find Bae to be someone hard to root for given the domestic assault conviction. This is pretty cynical but to me, he's the kind of guy who I hope becomes trade bait after Gonzales figures to arrive in MLB sooner.
Moving on to Head, perhaps it's somewhat alarming to see the main player acquired for Musgrove come in at 11 on the list, but I think it actually speaks to the impressive depth in the system and the most important sort of "overall" thing at this point, which is that there's so much talent in the age 19-21 range, some of which will pop off and some of which will regress. The bet on Head is tools+athleticism+Padres acquisition. If he shows something in games early this season, his name will quickly be included among top-100 types. But profile-wise, he might not be too distinct from someone like Siani, who doesn't currently have as much of a pedigree. This could be a positive or negative thing - if both pop off, you are looking at two well-rounded OF types in the 45/50 FV range next year, whereas if they remain simply projection types, you might be looking more at potential 4th OFs. It's too early to tell.
Bolton's writeup worries me a little bit, though I will also use it to say that I hope we decide to pivot some of the pitchers to bullpen arms, since strategically, it will be helpful to a contention window is we also have a wave of young arms in 22/23. Bolton could figure here, as well as someone like Brubaker (though I'd let the latter be one of the SPs for the entirety of the year first). Prospect-wise, the rule 5 acquisitions in Soriano and Oviedo seem to figure there, as to some of NH's guys like Ogle and Burrows. If even 2-3 of those guys become very good bullpen pitchers, that helps a lot. But back to Bolton, I suspect what to watch with him is pretty straightforward: he goes to Indy to be a 1-2 punch with Yajure in that rotation, and we see what the command and health look like. I still like Bolton a lot and there's no huge reason to be anxious yet, as he's not even 23. Injuries are the biggest thing here, IMO.
Moving to the big 40+ and 40 tiers, the first thing to notice is again how young the group is. That's a good sign at a depth level just for the sake of some guys likely jumping up into the 45/50 tiers in another full season or so. The older guys in these groups should still have possible role player status on them at a minimum: Oliva, Mears, Crowe, Bednar, Cederlind. I don't get the sense that the new front office likes Oliva – there's some argument to be made about the 40-man roster from last year, but we passed on an easy opportunity to get some looks at him, and post-hype players who are being brought in, along with vets like Goodwin, all seem to have a leg up on the depth chart. What's strange to me is that it does seem like the front office generally likes his kind of profile- speed, solid defense, a bit of pop. Maybe they want to see something decisive about him, but right now he looks like emergency depth to me.
Escotto is clearly well-liked, and he along with Head and Malone seem to be the likeliest candidates to be in the 50 FV/top-100 tier next year. Smith-Njigba and Mitchell appear to have pretty similar profiles, with the edge going to the former. Better chances of one hitting and giving you a solid everyday corner OF with some pop. By contrast, Martin and Rodriguez both look like pretty important players from a depth perspective, since we don't really see any other C or 1B, outside of Mojica who is 18. Eric seems to like both of them, with Rodriguez still being pretty far away and Martin IMO having 2021 as a really crucial year. His 2019 was terrific, and 2020 being a lost season looks to be a potential big blow, since it likely would have marked him facing some better pitching at the AA level. He's still fairly young, but I wonder if we'll be aggressive a little bit with him and start him in AA, which I think would give us a really good handle on how likely of a bet he is to click as a three outcomes everyday starter. To some extent I think you need to throw caution to the wind with prospect promotions this year – their age appropriate competition is in the same boat, anyways, so who the hell knows what happens with "age appropriate" evaluation in 2021.
In the 40 tier, I'm a bit disappointed to see a down arrow on Rodolfo Castro, who is someone I wouldn't mind getting a surprise cup of coffee in MLB as early as this September since he's already on the 40-man. I've noticed that he's taking infield practice at 3B (with Gonzales and Kramer being at 2B on the prospect field), so maybe there's an idea to see if he can become a utility bat, though obviously you don't figure on seeing anyone except Hayes at 3B in the foreseeable future.
Austin Roberts is someone who I'll shout out as having no idea who he was before this list, and looks to potentially be the last real under the radar NH guy. Smaller school, has added some velo since college, and now "has an arrow pointing way up" if it holds. Looking at his other tools – a 60 changeup and solid 50 curve, this is a guy who could very well go from unknown to sniffing the top-10 of the system as a mid-rotation prospect.
Finally, another older NH guy who interests me from further down the list is Max Kranick, who I get the sense that some seem to really like, and I was a little bit surprised not to see him higher. 2021 should be a big year for him and I figure he will start in Altoona and either put himself on the radar pretty quickly, or not quite work out. We added him to the 40-man, he seems to have had his stuff tick up, and he has a four pitch mix. Probably look for him to establish some potential ceiling in his AA performance and maybe make his way to Indy for a handful of starts if things really go well and there's an opening due to Yajure promoted to Pittsburgh or something (which I think is actually unlikely- I bet we won't see Yajure in Pittsburgh until 2022). He's in a somewhat unique position within the system as he's a few steps from Pittsburgh but still closer than the big wave of talent (though somebody like Priester may lap him if we are aggressive). He's maybe in a similar boat as Roansy Contreras as guys to watch in AA.
Don't have anything to say about the 35+ group except that I suppose you'd hope Mojica ticks up a bit more. Wilkin Ramos sounds like an interesting guy to file away, and perhaps yet one more notch in NH's belt in terms of projection/breakout guys, in the same manner as Cruz and Thomas but not the same ceiling.
All told, there's a lot of interesting storylines to keep track of at virtually every level of the system. While the most important guys to keep an eye on are undoubtedly at the top of the list, I think converting the solid depth of the system into solid MLB players will be a crucial part of the rebuild, too. You want to see both young players continue to pop up and establish higher ceilings – here I am thinking of guys like Escotto – while also seeing enough guys with fine ceilings hit them. If enough of the big prospects hit, and you can also get a mid/back-end rotation arm or two in Bolton, Mlodzinski, Contreras, Kranick, an everyday corner OF between Smith-Njigba and Mitchell, a few solid bullpen arms, and another everyday position player with somebody (I'd single out Swaggerty here), then you really are cooking with gas in that 2023 season.
It's always difficult to resist the temptation to map out future lineups and positions from prospect lists, and in baseball especially that's a bit of a fool's errand, since there definitely will be attrition, injury, and error, including with the top prospects. But I think between Hayes, Keller, and a handful of others, and then Priester and company, plus the depth that figures to remain strong with the next two drafts, the question of contention will ultimately come down to whether we can develop enough and have it supplemented by actually spending on a player or two in free agency either next offseason or more likely before 2023. The talent and opportunity to succeed in that window is certainly present.
