OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Spring [training] is here!

[Gallatin]

I still think we'll run away with the worst record. The team just isn't good. It would take over the top performances from multiple pitchers and the odds of that happening are slim.

You also have to account for the fact guys who are actually solid MLB'ers (Frazier, Moran) won't be here very long this year so you'll have drop in production almost surely going to a bench talent or AAA call up.

I really want Hayes to be alright and back in action asap. He's the only real reason I was going to watch a lot of the games this year. I still tune in but my care factor is rather low haha.

Yeah I'm in the same boat with Hayes out. It seems to watch a game I need an interesting Pitcher, Hayes, and a guy like Reynolds hitting the cover off the ball to stay engaged.

I'm not as confident as you, there's some serious competition for last place this season. Orioles, Rockies, and Rangers are all terabad, and just as devoid of talent as our Bucco's IMO.

 

[DanielPlainview]

Maybe it's a "here's your opportunity to show something or we're going to bring up Tucker" attempt at a shot in the arm for Newman

 

[Gallatin]

Yikes. Hopefully Newman magically starts not being total garbage at the plate... seems like another game where not getting no hit will be a W.

I believe the combination of Difoe, Reynolds, and Evans are good for a run or two this evening.

 

[cookthebooks]

this lineup a shot across the bow of any team thinking gm ben isnt down to secure #1 overall

 

[Gallatin]

I'm not going to say that I think it's impossible we'll finish last, but if I had to put odds on it, I wouldn't go more than 5%. 3-7 is a bad stretch and will do you in if you repeat it several times, but it's also just been 10 games and a number of other teams have started off just as bad. The floor is pretty bad for this team, especially if Hayes has a setback, etc., but I think the most important thing is that there are several other very bad teams in MLB who play in divisions which are either better or much better than us.

Concretely, the Rangers, Mariners, Orioles, Tigers, Rockies, and Diamondbacks all look to be just about as bad as us on paper. I don't think we'll necessarily finish better than all of these teams, but the odds of "beating" all of them to the punch for pick 1.1 are pretty low. The Rangers, Orioles, and Rockies especially are three teams I think are very close to shoe-ins to finish below us in the standings. I think that some other rebuilding teams like the Giants, Marlins, and Royals may have issues and tougher divisions to handle which could lead to them being in the conversation.

If I were to make a guess right now, I'd say we'll end up somewhere in pick 5-9, with a strong likelihood of it being closer to 5 than 9.

Some good logic and all that. But yeah - I really don't want to fail at sucking. That's been this team's recent history for the most part, failing at sucking enough to get really good.

Pittsburgh needs this, hopefully management is up to the task. I definitely feel like we have an edge with the Manager. Need more Oviedo moves if they're going to finish strong and take the prize.

You know I'm feeling like it's 1983 all over again with the Penguins. I went to games that year to see players like Savard and Bossy. I pulled so hard for the Pens to lose, while getting as much enjoyment as I could from the slim young talent, and the other team.

 

[Gallatin]

this lineup a shot across the bow of any team thinking gm ben isnt down to secure #1 overall

And fingers crossed he keeps it up.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah I think with Newman, there's not a lot else we can be doing with him. He's not really strong enough defensively to just carry as a bottom of the order hitter and take the defense, and that's not enough at 2B/a moot point with Frazier anyways. I still think longer-term, Newman would have more value as a super utility guy who can put the bat on the ball and give you speed off the bench. Frazier has performed well enough to just stick with him as the leadoff guy IMO, but there's no harm in taking a stab at kickstarting Newman this way when nothing else has worked.

I understand the mindset of rooting for individual good signs and team failure, I just don't personally root for the team I am watching to lose. Higher picks are better, obviously, and Green looks like a very good talent for the 2022 draft, but I'll see how all this shakes out from a distance. I think it's far more important to develop the talent that we currently have and not to miss with the shots we take. So Gonzales needs to be developed into a good contributor, and even if we perform really well this year, we're still going to get a top-10 pick in 2022 and we need to nail it, as well as have some success in the early rounds in general.

One area where I do have a fair amount of confidence in Cherington is the international market, and it seems like some of the guys he's picked up are well-regarded. That's the kind of thing that won't start paying dividends for 5-6 years in all likelihood. For now I think we are lucking out to have fallen into a 1.1 pick during a BS shortened season, and doubly so in that Leiter's stock has really taken off. If we can develop Priester, then even setting aside a lot of supplemental talent and the need to develop it, there's a pretty strong core of Leiter, Prister, Hayes, and Gonzales that shouldn't be terribly far away – Opening Day 2023 seems feasible.

 

[DanielPlainview]

Yikes. Hopefully Newman magically starts not being total garbage at the plate... seems like another game where not getting no hit will be a W.

Kind of surprised to see Moran get the day off, but I guess he hasn't had one. And he's a high quality option if they find themselves needing a PH in a close game.

Difo has shown a good bat (granted it's only been 12 PA). Maybe he's the guy to step up and provide some useful production out of CF for the near-term.

Alford and Fowler are just so bad at the plate right now it's hard to justify the inclusion of either of them. If things continue (assuming Cherrington cares about it enough to do anything), maybe both are DFA'd for Tucker and T. Frazier. You have to think that's at least half-plausible

 

[MrBrightside]

I'm not going to say that I think it's impossible we'll finish last, but if I had to put odds on it, I wouldn't go more than 5%. 3-7 is a bad stretch and will do you in if you repeat it several times, but it's also just been 10 games and a number of other teams have started off just as bad. The floor is pretty bad for this team, especially if Hayes has a setback, etc., but I think the most important thing is that there are several other very bad teams in MLB who play in divisions which are either better or much better than us.

Concretely, the Rangers, Mariners, Orioles, Tigers, Rockies, and Diamondbacks all look to be just about as bad as us on paper. I don't think we'll necessarily finish better than all of these teams, but the odds of "beating" all of them to the punch for pick 1.1 are pretty low. The Rangers, Orioles, and Rockies especially are three teams I think are very close to shoe-ins to finish below us in the standings. I think that some other rebuilding teams like the Giants, Marlins, and Royals may have issues and tougher divisions to handle which could lead to them being in the conversation.

If I were to make a guess right now, I'd say we'll end up somewhere in pick 5-9, with a strong likelihood of it being closer to 5 than 9.

Saying that any team is a "shoe-in" to finish below the Pirates in the standings is quite a position to take. The Pirates had the worst record in baseball last year and proceeded to unload Taillon, Archer, Bell, Musgrove, and Williams for little or no immediate help. I get that a full season of Hayes would be worth something and that Williams was so bad last year, ANYONE would be a wash or even an upgrade, but no one should be described as a lock to be worse.

 

[DanielPlainview]

Taillon and Archer didn't pitch last year, though. Moving Musgrove was the biggest blow to the rotation, but it had to be done.

Opening Day rotations:

2020 ------ 2021
Musgrove - Kuhl
Williams - Anderson
Keller - Keller
Brault - Brubaker
Holland - Cahill

+1:
Kuhl - Brault

After Musgrove, it's kind of a wash with this year's rotation having greater upside for the long term if Keller and Brubaker perform well

 

[ChaosAgent]

this lineup a shot across the bow of any team thinking gm ben isnt down to secure #1 overall

It's basically the best lineup we have against a great lefty.

I don't like being so devoid of hitters so you can carry a gazillion pitchers though.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Saying that any team is a "shoe-in" to finish below the Pirates in the standings is quite a position to take. The Pirates had the worst record in baseball last year and proceeded to unload Taillon, Archer, Bell, Musgrove, and Williams for little or no immediate help. I get that a full season of Hayes would be worth something and that Williams was so bad last year, ANYONE would be a wash or even an upgrade, but no one should be described as a lock to be worse.

Taillon didn't play last year.

Archer, Bell and Trevor Williams actively hurt the team. Only actual positive contributor they lost was Musgrove.

 

[MrBrightside]

Taillon didn't play last year.

Archer, Bell and Trevor Williams actively hurt the team. Only actual positive contributor they lost was Musgrove.

Ok, assume all of that is true. Are you really saying that Tyler Anderson and Trevor Cahill are an upgrade over Musgrove and Williams? Or at least enough of one to make teams that won 5-10 games more than the Pirates did last year "shoe-ins" to be worse than the Pirates? The Pirates' bullpen actually overachieved greatly last year, so some regression there is likely, and they currently have replacement level offense or worse in CF, RF, and at SS.

I dunno. How anyone can look at this team and not think it's going to lose 100 is beyond me.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Ok, assume all of that is true. Are you really saying that Tyler Anderson and Trevor Cahill are an upgrade over Musgrove and Williams? Or at least enough of one to make teams that won 5-10 games more than the Pirates did last year "shoe-ins" to be worse than the Pirates? The Pirates' bullpen actually overachieved greatly last year, so some regression there is likely, and they currently have replacement level offense or worse in CF, RF, and at SS.

I dunno. How anyone can look at this team and not think it's going to lose 100 is beyond me.

Trevor Williams is really, really, really bad. Bad enough to make up for the good of Joe Musgrove.

The Pirates played better at the end of last season and were pacing as a like 65-70 win team by the end. That's where I think they'll be better, though early results have not been encouraging. Alford, Fowler and Polanco are depression-inducing.

 

[MrBrightside]

Trevor Williams is really, really, really bad. Bad enough to make up for the good of Joe Musgrove.

The Pirates played better at the end of last season and were pacing as a like 65-70 win team by the end. That's where I think they'll be better, though early results have not been encouraging. Alford, Fowler and Polanco are depression-inducing.

That's quite a sample size you're using to argue they played better toward the end of the season - they had one good week where they won 4 out of 5. They were 10-22 over the last 32 games.

 

[ChaosAgent]

That's quite a sample size you're using to argue they played better toward the end of the season - they had one good week where they won 4 out of 5. They were 10-22 over the last 32 games.

Shrugs.

We'll see tonight and going forward.

IMHO, Hayes-Evans-Reynolds-Stallings-Frazier-Moran are too good to be so bad. Not that they're world beaters but that's a good enough core of guys offensively.

Go Bucs.

 

[MrBrightside]

Shrugs.

We'll see tonight and going forward.

IMHO, Hayes-Evans-Reynolds-Stallings-Frazier-Moran are too good to be so bad. Not that they're world beaters but that's a good enough core of guys offensively.

Go Bucs.

Hope you're right - I see one above-average MLB hitter in that group (Hayes) and he's hurt and not even swinging a bat yet. Guess we'll see.

 

[Gallatin]

Saying that any team is a "shoe-in" to finish below the Pirates in the standings is quite a position to take. The Pirates had the worst record in baseball last year and proceeded to unload Taillon, Archer, Bell, Musgrove, and Williams for little or no immediate help. I get that a full season of Hayes would be worth something and that Williams was so bad last year, ANYONE would be a wash or even an upgrade, but no one should be described as a lock to be worse.

The problem is the rest of the League got worse, several teams emptied it out like the Pirates have.

 

[Gallatin]

Ok, assume all of that is true. Are you really saying that Tyler Anderson and Trevor Cahill are an upgrade over Musgrove and Williams? Or at least enough of one to make teams that won 5-10 games more than the Pirates did last year "shoe-ins" to be worse than the Pirates? The Pirates' bullpen actually overachieved greatly last year, so some regression there is likely, and they currently have replacement level offense or worse in CF, RF, and at SS.

I dunno. How anyone can look at this team and not think it's going to lose 100 is beyond me.

True thing - I have high hopes for triple digit losses this season. Problem is it may take 105+ to secure Green.

 

[DanielPlainview]

Having first overall isn't super important, IMO. Just look at the list of guys taken there over the past 20 years. It's not a list of perennial All-Stars. The Pirates are extremely fortunate to have their pick of 2 of the most premier college pitchers in recent memory. There hasn't been hype like this since Strasburg

 

[ChaosAgent]

Having first overall isn't super important, IMO. Just look at the list of guys taken there over the past 20 years. It's not a list of perennial All-Stars. The Pirates are extremely fortunate to have their pick of 2 of the most premier college pitchers in recent memory. There hasn't been hype like this since Strasburg

It also gets you more money down-draft.

I will say though, that if Fowler, Alford, Polanco and Newman keep up their current sucktitude, 100 losses is pretty likely. I'm not expecting great things out of any of them at this point, but an OPS in the 6s for old Greggy would be pretty nice.

 

[Gallatin]

I want to be the 2013 Houston Astros this season. I want 110 losses, and I want a World Series win four years later.

The 10 Worst Teams in MLB History

 

[ChaosAgent]

I want to be the 2013 Houston Astros this season. I want 110 losses, and I want a World Series win four years later.

The 10 Worst Teams in MLB History

Not the way they did it.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Saying that any team is a "shoe-in" to finish below the Pirates in the standings is quite a position to take. The Pirates had the worst record in baseball last year and proceeded to unload Taillon, Archer, Bell, Musgrove, and Williams for little or no immediate help. I get that a full season of Hayes would be worth something and that Williams was so bad last year, ANYONE would be a wash or even an upgrade, but no one should be described as a lock to be worse.

There's no getting around the obvious fact that this was/is a bottom-5 team in baseball, but I think the sureties end there. The reason I will stick with what I said is that context matters, especially in a real season rather than whatever we want to call last year. 100 losses is a very real possibility for this team, but even if that happens, we're talking about a more certain top 3/4 pick. In that scenario, maybe the bottom especially falls out towards the end of this season and we push more towards 115 or 120 losses, but that kind of performance is uniquely bad and I am skeptical it will happen in such a bad division.

As some others have pointed out, the only positive contributor in that list was Musgrove. But I don't think the narrow look at individual player performance is as relevant, in any case. I also don't think too much weight should be placed on 2020 results – examples abound all throughout the league. Like a lot else, I think this kind of speculative conversation would be a lot more grounded six weeks from now. It seems like a reasonable bet that we'll be pretty tightly grouped with teams like the Rockies, Rangers, Mariners, and Orioles, but a lot can happen in six weeks. My speculation right now is that those teams, us, and maybe 1-2 others will all be within 5-6 games of each other, but that 1-2 of the teams will taper off even more as we get into June and July.

 

[Gallatin]

Not the way they did it.

Well sure I get what you're saying. I hate cheaters - problem is, it seems like everybody's cheating in MLB nowadays, it's just a matter of how much.

I mean how many pitchers use those illegal substances to get a better grip on the ball? All of them? And the teams that can afford to put together the best recipe ends up with the best pitchers? I look quite askance at MLB these days, and think they've gone way way down the wrong path.