OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Seven Springs Eternal

[Winger for Hire]

They want the postseason ASAP before a virus reimergance in the fall wiping it out.

That sweet, sweet postseason $

 

[cheesedanish87]

The owners want to pay the players the least amount of money possible which is why they want a short season.

As winger said the postseason money is also a big deal, they want the playoffs to happen in October to insure they get the postseason in before the possible second wave of the virus hits.

The TV networks also want the playoffs to happen in October rather then November because they want all that tv money from the political ads before the presidential election in November.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

 

[cookthebooks]

i mean the baseball draft couldve been handled virtually with no real difference for the vast majority of its history lol

 

[Winger for Hire]

i mean the baseball draft couldve been handled virtually with no real difference for the vast majority of its history lol

It basically was a conference call until the MLB Network started televising it.

 

[Elvis P]

I think that's great.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

With the draft coming up this week, it seems like the local reports are ramping up. The longstanding chatter seems to be college hitters, with Kjerstad being kind of the default projection. Biertempfel has a story up suggesting that the pick could be Gonzalez if he falls as a pure value play, which I think would ultimately make for the most interesting longer-term baseball move, because then middle infield would really become a position of crazy depth and upside in the organization.

The Pirates position is a pretty interesting one which is impossible to really nail down, since there are a bunch of possibly favorable scenarios that basically depend on what happens in front of them. I'm not going to pretend like I've done more than the typical clicking around and brief reading, but I like Kjerstad as a possible default option.

Law has chatter that we've been connected to Abel, and Jaded posted GMBC's comments about college pitching, so if you assume we're open to Veen or possibly Hendrick, that's basically all of the possible options (college/prep + batter/pitcher) and a legitimate chance that anyone could be there. This is based really on nothing, but my gut tells me that if Abel is the pick, then it will really be a story about the Pirates being in love with his upside, although really he's right there on FG's board. With prep hitters, I basically tend towards Veen or bust, and it seems unlikely he'll be there.

At the end of the day, my preference is to pluck out the best college option available. It's a deep group with upside, and so unless the scouts are convinced that the prep player is a star, that's the route I'd go. The top of my wishlist is Detmers, who I think is still unfairly pinned as having a lower ceiling, when what I see is an absolutely absurd and unteachable pitch along with good consistency and mechanics.

However, I think by far the most interesting possibility is Hancock. He may slide now due to the season being cut short, and while there's talk that teams aren't ga-ga over the metrics, we're still talking about a guy who was consistently in the mix at the very top. If he is there at #7, I think you have to pull the trigger. Again, I'm really just spitballing with this entire post, but my gut is that if he slides, he will either be snagged right away by us or his slide will continue for a few more picks.

All told, I see a number of viable possibilities which all seem encouraging. Torkelson, Lacy, and Martin have no chance to be there, but after that it seems like a free for all. I think my order of preference is 1) Detmers, 2) Hancock, 3) Kjerstad. The somewhat obvious projection/hope people will have for #31 is JT Ginn, and I'd absolutely be fine with that, but scooping up any solid pitching there will be fine by me. Personally, I can take or leave a catcher with any of these picks. If someone is good value and there's not a desirable pitching option to just snatch up for depth, then sure, go for it. But my sense is that drafting for catching specifically is a fool's errand, and a better holding pattern for the intermediate future is bolstering the defense at that position as much as possible and punting on the offense, unless some kind of automatic strike zone is implemented, at which point the position becomes unimportant.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Give me Austin Hendricks or give me someone else with huge power upside and elite bat speed.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Hendrick just seems like too much of a risk with the contact questions for me. I'm not going to pretend pundit, but I stubbornly would rather take the chance on a prep pitcher than a prep hitter. Even Veen, who seems to be consensus top prep bat, isn't as appealing to me. If Kjerstad or Gonzalez are there, they seem like better options for a batter.

But at the end of the day, if you are taking the big gamble on star upside, it's hard to complain at #7. Just seems like a guy like Kjerstad is a safer target for someone who projects at the kind of solid, dependable upper outcome corner player that we never really seem to be able to wrestle.

For me the question is the pitching upside. If Hancock or Detmers is there, I like the opportunity to have them atop a rotation with some of the other talent we've lined up. Cliche, but bears repeating that there are enough minor questions about anybody who might be around. From the little bit that I've read, none of the various options seem like they would be that much to complain about. I'll be upset if we reach slightly just to get a catcher, but otherwise I'm not going to complain much. I'd rather avoid prep talent beyond Abel, Veen, and perhaps Hendrick. Hendrick's stock seems to be dipping more towards the middle of the first round, but everything feels like so much of a crapshoot due to lack of data and other information this year.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Probably should allot some time to obsess over the draft, because the chance of baseball happening this year is about 0%.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Probably should allot some time to obsess over the draft, because the chance of baseball happening this year is about 0%.

My god, how did they blow this so bad?

I get it that the owners are evil...but the players seem to hate anything that they view as a bridge to a cap AND YET the other sports with cap/floor systems actually see the players taking home a bigger chunk of revenues.

The players have allowed a system in which the vast majority of under 30 year-olds don't make more than 2 generations of wealth just so that Bryce Harper and Gerrit Cole can amass 10 generations of wealth. I'm sorry it's beyond ridiculous that they haven't negotiated down the 6+ years of team control yet. I can't help but feel that those rules were set in the steroid era when juiced up guys could still produce great numbers in their mid-to-late 30s and has actually re-set in the CBA for the modern era.

The culture of this sport and this league and these owners and this players union is rotten, rotten, rotten.

 

[cheesedanish87]

I'm pretty optimistic about baseball returning this season, these things usually don't get settled till the last moment.

As far as the draft goes I always prefer to see the Pirates take starting pitching in the first round. Good starting pitching is so expensive in MLB, A team like the Pirates have to draft and develop starting pitching in order to put together a good rotation.

 

[cookthebooks]

based on numbers i saw if you think that salaries are prorated and you get a wage cut on top of that proration you are basically being given an offer where you stand to make $350,000 per million of salary. doesnt seem like the most appealing offer from a bunch of billionaires

 

[ChaosAgent]

based on numbers i saw if you think that salaries are prorated and you get a wage cut on top of that proration you are basically being given an offer where you stand to make $350,000 per million of salary. doesnt seem like the most appealing offer from a bunch of billionaires

If your businesses revenue declines by like 70%...what exactly should you expect?

 

[Winger for Hire]

If your businesses revenue declines by like 70%...what exactly should you expect?

If they'd open their books, I'd believe that.

But their insisting on less than 50 games leads me to believe it's not nearly that much (game day revenue) on the bottom line.

 

[cheesedanish87]

The players association just offered the owners a 89 game season at full prorated salaries.

The owners last offer was a 50 game season at full prorated pay.

It seems somewhere around 70 games at full prorated pay gets a deal done.

Hopefully it happens soon.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

The owners continue to be bitches. Slit their throats and make the teams publicly owned. f***ing leeches.

 

[ChaosAgent]

If they'd open their books, I'd believe that.

But their insisting on less than 50 games leads me to believe it's not nearly that much (game day revenue) on the bottom line.

Maybe because they know the players want prorated salaries - a money loser for owners when there isn't gate revenue - so they are trying to keep the prorating as low as possible to lose as little as possible? The owners would lose LESS in a 50-game season if salaries are prorated than a 90-game season if salaries are prorated.

I still think it's pennywise/pound foolish for the owners because they are permanently damaging the rep of the sport in a volatile time...especially as the NHL and NBA come back.

I like neither the owners nor the players in the MLB. I've come to regard the players' reticence to an NBA/NHL-style cap structure as incredibly stupid and self-defeating. 98% of younger ballplayers in the majors and minors financially suffer so that 10 guys can break the bank every year. Think about the earnings right now of a Mitch Keller vs...I dunno, Jared McCann. It's why when there was a heated debate about whether Kyler Murray should play football or baseball...people were like "look Bryce Harper got $320M how can u not play baseball." When in reality it's like, Kyler would have 2-3 years in the minors making nothing, a coinflip to make the majors at 23-24ish, if he makes the majors it takes 3.5 years to even get to arbitration to start amassing generational wealth...and if he makes it to the other side of arb as a good player he's hitting the open market at 30 where guys don't get paid stupid money the way they used to. Compare that to the path of a guy like Guentzel or even Pettersson.

 

[Winger for Hire]

I find it hard to blame the players in all of this. They did their duty and bargained the prorated salaries early, at the behest of the owners, and have no reason to bargain further without ample protections and concessions. But everyone has their own stance, I guess.

I'll just leave this here:
Cardinals owner Bill DeWitt buys Eva Longoria's Hollywood Hills villa

 

[ChaosAgent]

I find it hard to blame the players in all of this. They did their duty and bargained the prorated salaries early, at the behest of the owners, and have no reason to bargain further without ample protections and concessions. But everyone has their own stance, I guess.

I'll just leave this here:
Cardinals owner Bill DeWitt buys Eva Longoria's Hollywood Hills villa

They bargained on the premise that fans would be in the stands. The facts have changed.

You're right at some point that the juice simply isn't worth the squeeze for a third of the money you would have otherwise been making. Though I find any player safety concerns to be wildly overblown considering the virus' non-lethality to these age groups. If we were setting the line on whether an MLB player would die of COVID-19 at 1, I'd take the under. Or at most push. And that's the same number as those who died from overdoses while on the road last year.

But if the protections and concessions you're talking about have to do with service time and future free agency, I'll agree with that.

The wider point is that even in a non-COVID world the players had long since stopped negotiating in their actual interest. In continuing to resist a cap/floor model like the other 3 sports and staking their ground on that vs. service time limits (or age-based limits i.e. everyone is eligible for UFA by 28 or something. Or restricted free agency) they screw over 98% of players for the 2% that get the 9 figure contracts each year. They are also seeking UFA at all costs without fighting against the reality that players don't see UFA till they're 30 and teams have wisened up in the post-PED era as to what actual aging curves look like.
And I get it; the owners are really rich and for the most part bad people. But the union doesn't fight for the right stuff and that's why they got their clock cleaned last CBA.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

They bargained on the premise that fans would be in the stands. The facts have changed.

You're right at some point that the juice simply isn't worth the squeeze for a third of the money you would have otherwise been making. Though I find any player safety concerns to be wildly overblown considering the virus' non-lethality to these age groups. If we were setting the line on whether an MLB player would die of COVID-19 at 1, I'd take the under. Or at most push. And that's the same number as those who died from overdoses while on the road last year.

But if the protections and concessions you're talking about have to do with service time and future free agency, I'll agree with that.

The wider point is that even in a non-COVID world the players had long since stopped negotiating in their actual interest. In continuing to resist a cap/floor model like the other 3 sports and staking their ground on that vs. service time limits (or age-based limits i.e. everyone is eligible for UFA by 28 or something. Or restricted free agency) they screw over 98% of players for the 2% that get the 9 figure contracts each year. They are also seeking UFA at all costs without fighting against the reality that players don't see UFA till they're 30 and teams have wisened up in the post-PED era as to what actual aging curves look like.
And I get it; the owners are really rich and for the most part bad people. But the union doesn't fight for the right stuff and that's why they got their clock cleaned last CBA.

How exactly did the PA get their clock cleaned? They would have everything they want like they have for decades if the owners didn't uh.... collude to keep free agent spending down.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

 

[Winger for Hire]

 

[cookthebooks]

if this doesnt make everyone want the green bay model for all team ownership i dont even know

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I don't put a lot of stock into RJ Anderson, but that rumor has been going around and people are claiming it's LAA, who have fired their scouting staff and generally seem to be in disarray. The only other team I'd guess it would be is Colorado.

Here's a couple resources for the draft if anyone wants them:

1. An aggregated Big Board: Big Boards – TDK Baseball

2. This guy's feed- he seems well-connected, and said yesterday he has a ton of tweet-sized scouting reports queued up for the draft: https://twitter.com/JoeDoyleMiLB


The insiders are all over the place in projecting the Pirates pick, which I am taking to be a good sign about Cherington's front office. Law has Gonzalez, Kiley has Veen, Callis has Gonzalez, Mayo has Kjerstad, a general consensus is that high school prep Abel is in play, and that Hancock would be in play if he falls. I've seen bloggers even projecting Pete Crow-Armstrong.

My hope continues to be for Detmers, almost stubbornly at this point, since he's roundly projected as only popping up from #11 onward, and tagged with command/control, needs to cut down fly balls, etc. I think there would be some risk with him, but the curveball is so elite.

In the end I've probably shifted to hoping that Hancock falls to us, and coming around more to Max Meyer as an option as well. None of Veen, Kjerstad, or Gonzalez would upset me in the slightest, and even though I'd rather not see the hometown drama unfold, it's hard to argue with Hendrick's power.

I think we're in a great position and it just depends on a couple of factors. Veen seems to be an important wildcard in the early picks, and it sounds like there's a real question about whether Seattle would pass Hancock if he's there at #6. My gut feeling about the talented top player who many fans will randomly talk down about because he's a middle infielder is Gonzalez, so I'll go ahead and make that my draft morning guess for who we will end up with.

I don't yet have any kind of preference formed about how I'd prefer some of the other players. While I'm still on the "Cruz is a SS" train, I think you have to look at the draft as total raw material, and in that regard, Gonzalez could be an elite talent at a premium position. I lean heavily towards pitching, and it is a lock that one of Hancock, Meyer, or Detmers will be there when we pick, and a nonzero chance that all three will be there.