OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Seven Springs Eternal

[ChaosAgent]

Carry on the Pirates talk here.

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[DJ Spinoza]

Dare I say it, Williams turned in a pretty solid outing over his 3 IP today (if he's done). He's got some good movement on his pitches and appears to be throwing hard, but it's not always clear in spring training and they aren't displaying speeds on the broadcast. I think he can still be a useful backend guy if he can find a modicum of consistency. He's somewhat of an interesting case because he's had occasions where he locks in with some swing and miss type stuff. I think he needs to be churning out 5-6 IP starts regularly.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

He got some help from the wind, but Tucker crushed an oppo jack off Soroka. Trying not to read too much into the fact that he's playing 2B in this game.

I hope Doc won't nail me for hating on Frazier again, but honestly, I don't think there's more to the ceilings of either Frazier or Newman that I would hate seeing some kind of timeshare situation, with Tucker initially being the short straw in the group. I think Tucker's upside might just be too high if he can be a power/speed guy at SS to not find out. Even in practically a total time share scenario, it's not like it would cut down the ABs of anybody too much.

I think the operative idea should still be to look for the best Frazier deal early in the summer, starting around mid-May. Oakland is not confident in their options and so something could easily be in play for them prior to the deadline. Even if you wait til the deadline, it's not going to dampen the value too much, and might even improve things if he can get some pinch hits off the bench.

Bell just annihilated a HR off a guy coming in to mop up for Soroka.

 

[ChaosAgent]

If Tucker earns it over Frazier, go for it.

I don't think it's a slam dunk that Newman's the better 2B/hitter, either.

Again though, you have to get the right value for Frazier. He's not a trade-just-to-trade guy.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, I guess I'd been assuming that it wouldn't really make a lot of sense for Tucker to be on the bench in Pittsburgh, but honestly, even if he only gets 2-3 starts a week, it might be better for him to just hit against MLB pitching and sort of earn his way into a bigger role. I don't think it'd be disastrous if he started in AAA, but there should be enough ABs for him. In a 6-game week, there are 12 starts to go around. If Tucker gets 2-3, then Newman and Frazier would be getting 3-5 each depending on exactly how things shape up.

I'm not about to anoint Tucker with anything based on some spring training ABs, but I think there's enough power in his swing that combined with the defense and speed, that he ultimately could have the biggest ceiling out of anybody in the group. I'm still pretty in on Newman, as I think the hit tool and the speed are real, with competent enough defense, but I think he plays up more at 2B.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Z-team pitching in the other game against Philly. Noesi, Never-see-this-team-again, and Rios. Against the likes of Harper and Realmuto. Yeah no.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Polanco's swing still looks a little long to my eye test, but very good to see him working a long count with lots of patience and plate presence. If he does that, he'll cut the swing and miss down and hopefully not sacrifice too much power. I think he can still be a competent #5 hitter.

Reynolds put on a clinic in this game. As far as contract extensions go, he might be the main one I'd like to see, just because I think the floor is so high that he can be a real staple out there. He's such a good hitter that I bet he might work his way into some more power. It's fine to expect a little regression from him but I can see him getting that total up into the early 20s, which with the elite hit tool, would be extremely valuable. I think the overall question with him will be if his defense can take a step forward this year. This is why I am very glad that Dyson was brought in. We should be able to get a read on his defense in LF with a strong defender holding down CF. His arm is pretty bad, but if he can cover solid ground out there and maintain the offensive performance, that's a good cornerstone player for sure.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Polanco's swing still looks a little long to my eye test, but very good to see him working a long count with lots of patience and plate presence. If he does that, he'll cut the swing and miss down and hopefully not sacrifice too much power. I think he can still be a competent #5 hitter.

Reynolds put on a clinic in this game. As far as contract extensions go, he might be the main one I'd like to see, just because I think the floor is so high that he can be a real staple out there. He's such a good hitter that I bet he might work his way into some more power. It's fine to expect a little regression from him but I can see him getting that total up into the early 20s, which with the elite hit tool, would be extremely valuable. I think the overall question with him will be if his defense can take a step forward this year. This is why I am very glad that Dyson was brought in. We should be able to get a read on his defense in LF with a strong defender holding down CF. His arm is pretty bad, but if he can cover solid ground out there and maintain the offensive performance, that's a good cornerstone player for sure.

I view Reynolds as a great 2.5-4WAR complimentary player. Like if he's your 3rd-5th best position player, you're in very solid shape. If he's your best...eh not so much. I think the ship has sailed on pretty much every other guy at the ML level being better than Reynolds though. Having said that, Hayes, Tucker (who we'll say is fringe MLB/AAA right now), Cruz and Swaggerty have '20 or '21 ETAs and I expect at least 1 to be better.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, I think if he's the 3rd best position player, we'll be in good shape. I am actually sky high on Oliva, and really I think where Reynolds gives back his value some is on defense. If he can keep improving in that area, then I'd be happy to have him nailed down as the long-term LF.

 

[Gallatin]

Yeah, I guess I'd been assuming that it wouldn't really make a lot of sense for Tucker to be on the bench in Pittsburgh, but honestly, even if he only gets 2-3 starts a week, it might be better for him to just hit against MLB pitching and sort of earn his way into a bigger role. I don't think it'd be disastrous if he started in AAA, but there should be enough ABs for him. In a 6-game week, there are 12 starts to go around. If Tucker gets 2-3, then Newman and Frazier would be getting 3-5 each depending on exactly how things shape up.

I'm not about to anoint Tucker with anything based on some spring training ABs, but I think there's enough power in his swing that combined with the defense and speed, that he ultimately could have the biggest ceiling out of anybody in the group. I'm still pretty in on Newman, as I think the hit tool and the speed are real, with competent enough defense, but I think he plays up more at 2B.

I would prefer to see Tucker learning a new swing in AAA....

 

[Gallatin]

Yeah, I guess I'd been assuming that it wouldn't really make a lot of sense for Tucker to be on the bench in Pittsburgh, but honestly, even if he only gets 2-3 starts a week, it might be better for him to just hit against MLB pitching and sort of earn his way into a bigger role. I don't think it'd be disastrous if he started in AAA, but there should be enough ABs for him. In a 6-game week, there are 12 starts to go around. If Tucker gets 2-3, then Newman and Frazier would be getting 3-5 each depending on exactly how things shape up.

I'm not about to anoint Tucker with anything based on some spring training ABs, but I think there's enough power in his swing that combined with the defense and speed, that he ultimately could have the biggest ceiling out of anybody in the group. I'm still pretty in on Newman, as I think the hit tool and the speed are real, with competent enough defense, but I think he plays up more at 2B.

Newman could be above average at second.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I would prefer to see Tucker learning a new swing in AAA....

Gally, is he learning it from both sides? Can he be platooned with the side that isn't a work-in-progress?

 

[Gallatin]

Gally, is he learning it from both sides? Can he be platooned with the side that isn't a work-in-progress?

He's a victim of the Huntington hitting philosophies - which run counter to what the leading edge is doing right now. That seems like a significant adjustment, with several moving parts, and best completed in AAA IMO.

Tucker mos def has untapped power potential, and needs to get to it in order to be more than average IMO.

 

[cookthebooks]

isnt it a bit concerning that the overhaul for tucker hasnt begun already? these guys hit all winter and gmbc was hired in november. i guess any idea what mike rabelos been up to?

 

[ChaosAgent]

He's a victim of the Huntington hitting philosophies - which run counter to what the leading edge is doing right now. That seems like a significant adjustment, with several moving parts, and best completed in AAA IMO.

Tucker mos def has untapped power potential, and needs to get to it in order to be more than average IMO.

I agree to him starting in AAA.

If only to give me 60 more chances to see my short-armed Mississippuh champion, Adam.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

As far as I understand it, Tucker's swing overhaul has been an ongoing project all winter with him training with Bellinger. If the idea is for him to just get constant, uninterrupted reps, then I agree, AAA wouldn't really harm him. Ideal situation is that he has a high OPS for six weeks or so and you make that work in some kind of rotation. I'm not precisely sure what the infield situation will be in AAA, but Tucker could easily slot in as the regular SS there and take some reps at 2B too in order to boost his flexibility when the time comes for a callup.

I definitely agree that he needs to get to some of his power in order to be an upgrade at the SS position, but especially given the lack of power in the organization generally, I am really intrigued to see if he can get to it, even if I do trust Newman's hit tool.

 

[Gallatin]

isnt it a bit concerning that the overhaul for tucker hasnt begun already? these guys hit all winter and gmbc was hired in november. i guess any idea what mike rabelos been up to?

I believe Tucker is several months into it already. But yeah - these things can take a while to do it right, and much of the work happens in the off-season.

I would be surprised if RAPSODO was not a big part of the process. Hopefully they already identified and executed some changes , and are working through a plan in both games & BP.

I have not caught more than a dozen innings yet - can anyone comment if their has been any discussion of Tucker altering his hand positioning? Stance? Approach?

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I haven't noticed any talk about it, but I think the idea is to get more loft on the swing as well as to steady it when it gets in the zone. Berry talks a little bit about it here: With new swing, Tucker hopes '20 is a new year

He seems to have more of an attacking approach, but he already sort of brought that energy to my eyes. I'll be curious once we start getting some data. He's EV numbers last year are right around league average, but I remember him hitting the ball quite hard on a number of occasions. If he gets more balls in the air and hits them hard, 20 HRs seems pretty feasible.

I think he will still be more of a work in progress but the big upside is there. I'd still force him to earn his way into the mix, but only so much, because I think the ceilings are fairly evident for both Newman and Frazier. That might be underselling Newman, but he's a 2.5 WAR guy who is riding hard on a hit tool. Plays so much better at 2B.

 

[DanielPlainview]

I don’t know what you guys are going on about. They blew a 7-2 lead thanks to some shaky later inning pitching. They’re already in mid-season form

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Heyman with some more random Pirates news/affirmation:



Hayes has maybe quietly had a good camp with the attention mostly on Cruz. Not sure it's extremely coherent to just lump him in with Tucker, but I tend to think the optimistic outlook would be both going to AAA and hitting the cover off the ball. I can't imagine it will be that difficult to make room for them. This is probably a bit of a triangulation, but we might also want to see what a depth guy like Riddle has in the first few weeks of the MLB season... not like you are playing for 2020 anyways, but if Riddle shows you something, then it's easier to pull the trigger on a Frazier deal and install Tucker in a starting job (though again, with that said, the primary factor in a Frazier trade should be getting adequate value).

 

[Winger for Hire]

 

[ChaosAgent]

I don’t know what you guys are going on about. They blew a 7-2 lead thanks to some shaky later inning pitching. They’re already in mid-season form

Eh the guys who blew it were Stratton and Del Pozo. Neither of whom is favored to make the club. I hope not on Stratton anyway.

 

[DanielPlainview]

Jesus Christ

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I'm not inclined to make any strong calls about roster setup in single digit March games where the starters might go three innings at most. If Stratton is maintaining his elite spin rates, he has an inside track on a spot in my eyes. Del Pozo looks better in just the eye test to me than Erlin.

The box scores of spring training games, even in a few weeks when they represent mostly trial runs for the real games, are next to useless. But they are especially useless on March 4th – I don't really think that's a difficult or controversial point.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

The new MLB Pipeline rankings are out for the Pirates, and much more in line with the ones from FG, other than having Thomas a little lower: Prospect Rankings

It seems like the thing with Thomas is getting ahead of the curve. He's already got the raw tools to end up as an elite leverage reliever, so I think the true test of where his ceiling will start to come into focus is if he can show some feel for the offspeed and/or breaking stuff in 2020. I would assume that the focus will primarily still be on his slider, since he'll only be in full season A ball, but if he flashes one of the other pitches, then it's easy to start imagining him as a front line starter.

Besides pedigree, I'm not sure there's a lot of reason to discount him over a prep arm like Malone or even Priester. Either way, I think we'll have an even clearer shape as we get into the season. It sounds like we might be aggressive with Malone and have him in full season ball, so there's potential for a Greensboro rotation that includes all of Malone, Priester, and Thomas.