Winger for Hire
Praise Beebo
NH also said "everyone wanted Tulo, but I didn't". Mentioned it would be good for PR, but not for the team.
OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Offseason at the Crossroads
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Winger for Hire
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DJ Spinoza
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Sounds like a dig at Tulo because he chose a better team, but no way to tell.
The opener thing could be smoke and mirrors, but kind of puts more brakes on the idea of Romo in my mind, though of course he could be used in a more traditional BP role. I do think getting one more arm is important. Right now the bullpen will be good, but an injury to Kela or Crick could cause that to change pretty fast. That's not going to be solved by Diekman or somebody like that, but it would be a good depth move.
Assuming the depressing option of a couple more middling signings and a ~80M payroll, I think I'd prefer a guy like Miley the most. Let him and Lyles battle it out for a spot, and the other can be a bullpen option.
The opener thing could be smoke and mirrors, but kind of puts more brakes on the idea of Romo in my mind, though of course he could be used in a more traditional BP role. I do think getting one more arm is important. Right now the bullpen will be good, but an injury to Kela or Crick could cause that to change pretty fast. That's not going to be solved by Diekman or somebody like that, but it would be a good depth move.
Assuming the depressing option of a couple more middling signings and a ~80M payroll, I think I'd prefer a guy like Miley the most. Let him and Lyles battle it out for a spot, and the other can be a bullpen option.
DJ Spinoza
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Damn, Fangraphs (I assume this just means steamer) is pretty harsh on the Brewers, projecting them for 79 wins and last place in the division. Us in 4th, Reds 3rd.
Obviously just projections, but I think that's why it's so frustrating to see this inactivity right now. We'll be right around there if the pitching performs well. If we added an all star to the lineup, we'd be right towards the top of that projections list. An Iglesias / better 5th starter probably puts us at like 81 or 82 maybe. My sense is that we are probably waiting on certain guys to lower their ask for term, which is annoying because it condemns us to the same song and dance next year, with even more speculation.
Obviously just projections, but I think that's why it's so frustrating to see this inactivity right now. We'll be right around there if the pitching performs well. If we added an all star to the lineup, we'd be right towards the top of that projections list. An Iglesias / better 5th starter probably puts us at like 81 or 82 maybe. My sense is that we are probably waiting on certain guys to lower their ask for term, which is annoying because it condemns us to the same song and dance next year, with even more speculation.
Winger for Hire
Praise Beebo
I think that's automated and runs off ZiPS, which Szymborski is currently in the process of unvailing for the 2019 season.
Winger for Hire
Praise Beebo
Had my friend ask NH about the Pirates J2 approach. He sent me this-
J2 signings...he said 82% of J2 signings costs less than 400k. He also said the agents aren’t agents and they gouge these 14/15/16 year old kids and give them housing and food. In return, they take monster percentages. For example, Marte was 80K and Polanco 150kish?
He said the j2 deals are done 3 years before they happen. Big market teams commit to 15 year olds (and that’s crazy NH) and then ink it 2 years later on J2.
There is a hard cap now on spending money unless you trade for it like the money they got from Nova trade. They want to accumulate more international money in trades if they can cause the long term deals are there but it’s the Wild West with these fake agents and teams like the dodgers will commit 500k to a 15 year old when they all only have 6M as a hard cap.
But it is important to them.
J2 signings...he said 82% of J2 signings costs less than 400k. He also said the agents aren’t agents and they gouge these 14/15/16 year old kids and give them housing and food. In return, they take monster percentages. For example, Marte was 80K and Polanco 150kish?
He said the j2 deals are done 3 years before they happen. Big market teams commit to 15 year olds (and that’s crazy NH) and then ink it 2 years later on J2.
There is a hard cap now on spending money unless you trade for it like the money they got from Nova trade. They want to accumulate more international money in trades if they can cause the long term deals are there but it’s the Wild West with these fake agents and teams like the dodgers will commit 500k to a 15 year old when they all only have 6M as a hard cap.
But it is important to them.
Winger for Hire
Praise Beebo
I'm no longer a big NH fan...
He also said About puig and kemp...a guy asked if there were rumors about Puig coming to Pitt and he said “Puig was a character dump. So was kemp. If Puig came to the pirates, me and the staff would have quit. We never wanted and do not want Puig”
Also asked about #5 slot...
He said their projection of Lyles compared to a guy like Holland were very close. A second year from Holland would have been irresponsible when they feel the similar value in Lyles. He said if he could have gotten Holland for 2/10, he would have inked it. They had him at a 5M guy
He also said About puig and kemp...a guy asked if there were rumors about Puig coming to Pitt and he said “Puig was a character dump. So was kemp. If Puig came to the pirates, me and the staff would have quit. We never wanted and do not want Puig”
Also asked about #5 slot...
He said their projection of Lyles compared to a guy like Holland were very close. A second year from Holland would have been irresponsible when they feel the similar value in Lyles. He said if he could have gotten Holland for 2/10, he would have inked it. They had him at a 5M guy
Winger for Hire
Praise Beebo
OK, I like him a little more...
He said he had a man crush on Yelich and tried to get him the Cole year in the 2nd. He said he offered Miami 4+ times for Yelich before they dealt him.
He said at one point, he offered a current player of ours for Yelich with prospects and the whole room looked at him shocked and he defended it. They said no.
He said he had a man crush on Yelich and tried to get him the Cole year in the 2nd. He said he offered Miami 4+ times for Yelich before they dealt him.
He said at one point, he offered a current player of ours for Yelich with prospects and the whole room looked at him shocked and he defended it. They said no.
Empoleon8771
Registered User
I do find it pretty cool with how honest NH is being with these answers. You could totally expect him to be hesitant and not want to talk about free agents and trades and stuff, but he's being pretty open with these questions. Idk if that's how most GMs operate, but I find it pretty cool to see.
I'm guessing he offered Marte, because I'm not sure who else would fall into that category.
I'm guessing he offered Marte, because I'm not sure who else would fall into that category.
DJ Spinoza
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Yikes. Well, I guess hopefully Galvis decides he'll take a one year deal soon. I still think most everything NH says should be taken with a giant grain of salt, even in these smaller forums. But as things stand, that would be an excessively arrogant way to head into the season.
I do think that Kingham needing a roster spot probably factors in, and the 5th starter spot isn't a huge weakness right now, but it's the usual story with a cavalier lack of depth. It's almost like clockwork from them at this point. It'd be much easier to swallow if we were to get one of the moderate tier guys like Gonzalez, but I think we can pretty much expect Galvis/Iglesias and probably Diekman or Sipp on a minor league deal.
Edit- this yikes was in response to Winger's summation of the Lyles comments, obviously.
I do think that Kingham needing a roster spot probably factors in, and the 5th starter spot isn't a huge weakness right now, but it's the usual story with a cavalier lack of depth. It's almost like clockwork from them at this point. It'd be much easier to swallow if we were to get one of the moderate tier guys like Gonzalez, but I think we can pretty much expect Galvis/Iglesias and probably Diekman or Sipp on a minor league deal.
Edit- this yikes was in response to Winger's summation of the Lyles comments, obviously.
Winger for Hire
Praise Beebo
Here's an insightful and thoughtful one (thought I'm assuming paraphrased)...
He said a number of times “I won’t say this tomorrow but...”
He said he gave away regressing prospects in the liriano deal but if he could go back in time, he would have waited and found out that Hutchinson sucked. He said “I made a mistake in valuing Hutchinson. I don’t care about those prospects too much but there is a chance I could have retained them and still got rid of liriano.”
He said a number of times “I won’t say this tomorrow but...”
He said he gave away regressing prospects in the liriano deal but if he could go back in time, he would have waited and found out that Hutchinson sucked. He said “I made a mistake in valuing Hutchinson. I don’t care about those prospects too much but there is a chance I could have retained them and still got rid of liriano.”
Winger for Hire
Praise Beebo
the biggum...
It’s over now. It was a 5-7 happy hour. Just roll up and start chatting. We talked initially. For 10 mins. Then he was wandering around and I grabbed him again. It ended at 7 and the whole place emptied out and me and 4 other dudes sat bullshitting with him. We had him by ourselves for over an hour. Machado...
He said in the last 10 years, there have been 60 playoff teams. He said 3 teams have had a playoff team that had 1 player be at 18% or over the total payroll. He mentioned a few teams that have been hamstrung by 1 player deals that cripple them.
He said he isn’t totally against trying to get that guy for 3 years and then maybe trade him but if the player regresses or gets hurt, he crippled the pirates. He said the deal would have to be just right but the math suggests that a team their size can’t commit 18%+ of their payroll into one player.
He also said he likes the idea of signing a guy to an 8 yr deal with the plan of trading him after 3 or 4.
It’s over now. It was a 5-7 happy hour. Just roll up and start chatting. We talked initially. For 10 mins. Then he was wandering around and I grabbed him again. It ended at 7 and the whole place emptied out and me and 4 other dudes sat bullshitting with him. We had him by ourselves for over an hour. Machado...
He said in the last 10 years, there have been 60 playoff teams. He said 3 teams have had a playoff team that had 1 player be at 18% or over the total payroll. He mentioned a few teams that have been hamstrung by 1 player deals that cripple them.
He said he isn’t totally against trying to get that guy for 3 years and then maybe trade him but if the player regresses or gets hurt, he crippled the pirates. He said the deal would have to be just right but the math suggests that a team their size can’t commit 18%+ of their payroll into one player.
He also said he likes the idea of signing a guy to an 8 yr deal with the plan of trading him after 3 or 4.
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Empoleon8771
Registered User
I feel like this is very reasonable and matches with a lot of what people here are thinking.
Winger for Hire
Praise Beebo
I think that's all the info I'm going to get tonight. Thanks for attending my TED Talk on the Pirates.
DJ Spinoza
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f*** you NH, we had just talked ourselves out of this obvious bullshit!!!
The thing I keep circling back to in all of this is the timing. He's certainly right in a sense concerning the percentage of payroll and how it could cripple you, but with the way the contracts are lined up, that would be somewhat mitigated within this current window. Or to put it in other words, there really should be the ability to both commit a huge amount of payroll and still have some money for raises and perhaps a reclamation or two as the filling in minor gaps/depth, and remain within the imposed payroll from Nutting. That's really the key to all of it; it'd be a slightly different story if you didn't have cost control with Marte, Polanco, and Archer.
At the absolute "worst" case, I guess you could have some serious escalations in payroll after the 2020 season if Taillon or Bell has played out of their mind for two years. But really, that's it -- I'm happy to cave if I'm wrong, but on the merits of a 90ishM payroll, the only small stumbling block would be this upcoming season, assuming the contract is 30M AAV.
The idea of it is also a bit of a way of skirting around the obvious lack of spending that's currently going on, and it can't be ruled out that the payroll is actually being limited to 75M by Nutting going forward. I'm a bit skeptical on that front, due to NH staying, but it certainly can't just be scoffed away. In any case, coming back to the idea of Machado, given the exact timing of this window, it just seems to harbor a lot less risk when compared with an alternative such as something like signing both Marwin and Iglesias and getting the payroll around 85-90 this year (and less next year).
We're stuck in the 78-83 win range right now. If we signed Machado to a huge contract and he got hurt, that would be really bad. But we're also just as screwed if we signed a couple guys like that and Marte or Marwin got hurt, and in the event that Marwin plays extremely well, the upside is probably that we're more firmly an 82-87 win team, and still on the periphery of the WC race, but maybe closer to being really in it. There's just no better timing, need, or gamble to take that kind of risk.
Thanks to Winger and your friend for the updates.
The thing I keep circling back to in all of this is the timing. He's certainly right in a sense concerning the percentage of payroll and how it could cripple you, but with the way the contracts are lined up, that would be somewhat mitigated within this current window. Or to put it in other words, there really should be the ability to both commit a huge amount of payroll and still have some money for raises and perhaps a reclamation or two as the filling in minor gaps/depth, and remain within the imposed payroll from Nutting. That's really the key to all of it; it'd be a slightly different story if you didn't have cost control with Marte, Polanco, and Archer.
At the absolute "worst" case, I guess you could have some serious escalations in payroll after the 2020 season if Taillon or Bell has played out of their mind for two years. But really, that's it -- I'm happy to cave if I'm wrong, but on the merits of a 90ishM payroll, the only small stumbling block would be this upcoming season, assuming the contract is 30M AAV.
The idea of it is also a bit of a way of skirting around the obvious lack of spending that's currently going on, and it can't be ruled out that the payroll is actually being limited to 75M by Nutting going forward. I'm a bit skeptical on that front, due to NH staying, but it certainly can't just be scoffed away. In any case, coming back to the idea of Machado, given the exact timing of this window, it just seems to harbor a lot less risk when compared with an alternative such as something like signing both Marwin and Iglesias and getting the payroll around 85-90 this year (and less next year).
We're stuck in the 78-83 win range right now. If we signed Machado to a huge contract and he got hurt, that would be really bad. But we're also just as screwed if we signed a couple guys like that and Marte or Marwin got hurt, and in the event that Marwin plays extremely well, the upside is probably that we're more firmly an 82-87 win team, and still on the periphery of the WC race, but maybe closer to being really in it. There's just no better timing, need, or gamble to take that kind of risk.
Thanks to Winger and your friend for the updates.
USMC607
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They also went all in when they had their shots in 97 and 03 and won. Before they went back to being shit.
Just like KC when they had their shot.
Winger for Hire
Praise Beebo
Looks like we have bonus content-
I asked Neil what is your payroll this year right now? He said just south of 75M. Then I said how does this season feel to you? He said a lot like 2011/2012. I asked how is it different this time and he said :
“everyone wanted us to go for it after ‘15 but I knew we were in trouble after ‘15. I knew ‘13 was gonna be good. If this group plays like the ‘12 team, I’m not gonna make the same mistake twice. ‘15 isn’t my regret, ‘12 is.
I asked Neil what is your payroll this year right now? He said just south of 75M. Then I said how does this season feel to you? He said a lot like 2011/2012. I asked how is it different this time and he said :
“everyone wanted us to go for it after ‘15 but I knew we were in trouble after ‘15. I knew ‘13 was gonna be good. If this group plays like the ‘12 team, I’m not gonna make the same mistake twice. ‘15 isn’t my regret, ‘12 is.
Empoleon8771
Registered User
You can argue that last year was like the 2012 Pirates, which means NH should be more aggressive now if he regrets not being aggressive enough after 2012. I don't know why he views next year's team like the 2012 team instead of last year's team.
DJ Spinoza
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Guess he's signing J-Mac to a minor league contract. Comeback, baby!
I had the same initial reaction, but it's an interesting comment, which is still a bit suggestive that a bigger play is coming. You could probably interpret it as also being about the trade deadline/next offseason, and at this point I am basically certain that this will be the line towed in March, but I will also say this at this point: I'm reasonably convinced of the insane idea that he has a made a formal offer to Lozano.
I had the same initial reaction, but it's an interesting comment, which is still a bit suggestive that a bigger play is coming. You could probably interpret it as also being about the trade deadline/next offseason, and at this point I am basically certain that this will be the line towed in March, but I will also say this at this point: I'm reasonably convinced of the insane idea that he has a made a formal offer to Lozano.
DJ Spinoza
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Winger for Hire
Praise Beebo
DJ Spinoza
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I'd have to assume that if the Padres are willing to trade Mejia, they'll have a major leg up in the Realmuto sweepstakes. If like me, you are actually crazy enough to believe Huntington is in on Machado, then the full theory requires some stars aligning to work: Cervelli's salary needs a place to be offloaded, and the Phillies need to win Harper. I think the latter is more likely to happen. If the Padres win Realmuto, maybe that helps the chances of a Dodgers-Cervelli trade, but there might just be too much risk for most any team. If Atlanta walks away with nothing via trade or free agency, that might be the best bet, with a relatively young staff and team.
The bigger problem in all of this is whether moving part or all of Cervelli's salary would require packaging him with Marte, thereby freeing up "more room" immediately. If that's the case, the gamble is almost not even worth it. If you got an ideal package, maybe it would work out, but as good of players Stripling and Verdugo could be in the abstract, I don't know that they'd offset both Marte and Cervelli in the immediate term. Stripling obviously is a safer bet, but you never know what kind of consistency you'll get from a rookie for starters. Maybe if the trade had Pederson and/or Taylor, but at that point it really becomes a stretch.
My sense is the situation is a lot more simple: Cervelli is too risky for most teams, and signing Pollock basically takes the Dodgers out of really needing a guy like Marte. The only angle from which I could kind of see it is if they really want the additional RH bat, and so losing out on Realmuto could push them to get more aggressive. But I'd suspect they'll just compete for Realmuto, and if it doesn't work out, just roll with what they've got.
The bigger problem in all of this is whether moving part or all of Cervelli's salary would require packaging him with Marte, thereby freeing up "more room" immediately. If that's the case, the gamble is almost not even worth it. If you got an ideal package, maybe it would work out, but as good of players Stripling and Verdugo could be in the abstract, I don't know that they'd offset both Marte and Cervelli in the immediate term. Stripling obviously is a safer bet, but you never know what kind of consistency you'll get from a rookie for starters. Maybe if the trade had Pederson and/or Taylor, but at that point it really becomes a stretch.
My sense is the situation is a lot more simple: Cervelli is too risky for most teams, and signing Pollock basically takes the Dodgers out of really needing a guy like Marte. The only angle from which I could kind of see it is if they really want the additional RH bat, and so losing out on Realmuto could push them to get more aggressive. But I'd suspect they'll just compete for Realmuto, and if it doesn't work out, just roll with what they've got.
Winger for Hire
Praise Beebo
DJ Spinoza
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- Aug 7, 2003
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Biggest challenge so far from the PiratesFest news is figuring out how to pin this quote up on that board:
Payroll can expand (immediately by our new signing of Manny Machado!)
Payroll can expand (immediately by our new signing of Manny Machado!)
Winger for Hire
Praise Beebo
I get keeping an eye on the future, but come on.
A $30m buffer for future arb seems a bit much and just a shitty excuse.
A $30m buffer for future arb seems a bit much and just a shitty excuse.
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