OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Offseason at the Crossroads

[Winger for Hire]

Vegas has the Pirates' o/u at 77.5

Any takers?

 

[Empoleon8771]

Vegas has the Pirates' o/u at 77.5

Any takers?

I'd take the under, I think the most likely scenario is that the pitching regresses and the bats stay the same. Maybe like 75-87?

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Too soon to tell of course - if we get nothing at all, I'd be inclined to bet the under, but if we grabbed even just Iglesias or Galvis, I think I'd still take the over. Hard to factor the division, but I believe in the pitching + bullpen and think that'll tend to get them around 80-85 wins. I'd be more comfortable with that if we still had Nova as a failsafe #5. I have no confidence in Lyles or whatever that plan is, even though I do think bullpenning is a good idea.

One quick point I think should be made is that even if we aren't gonna go after / get Machado, the payroll is just so low that it's inexcusable. We're seeing decent deals, the kind NH is probably gonna for, start to happen with guys like Cabrera and Pomeranz, who would help and do basically nothing to "hurt" the payroll. There's room right now for Machado at 30M AAV, and hopefully we're going to have our socks blown off in a week or so with a signing, but even if that can't happen, we should still be willing to spend aggressively in order to get a bat like Gonzalez. It doesn't do the same kind of needle-moving as a superstar would, but spending a premium and hoping for one very goo bat is better than spreading it out over 2-3 slightly above replacement level guys.

Even if it meant gambling on Gonzalez's defense, or having him be super utility/combine with Chisenhall and Frazier as kind of permanent utility, and having Erik Gonzalez/Newman as the SS, that would at least be somewhat palatable. A 72-75 million dollar payroll after the Archer trade would be a joke that deserves mocked thoroughly, and would warrant expecting 72-75 wins.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Strong WC team. Would need to deal some prospects for another starter.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

If I recall correctly, the same exact thing occurred last year.

Ok, so looking at the SS options on the sane premise that we have utterly no chance at signing Machado, I wonder where people are leaning? I tend to think for starters that Ahmed should be set apart, and focus instead on Gonzalez, Galvis, and Iglesias. Gonzalez does seem to be the most obvious offensive upside, but I have no idea of his defense at SS, and I'm not sure how much of an offensive upside is actually there. If you get the 4 WAR player, it's worth whatever salary, but the risk is that you never really get the 4 WAR player and get a really nice 1.5-2 WAR player, i.e., Adam Frazier.

I lean towards Iglesias more and more. His elite defense is an immediate plus, both for mentoring Tucker and other young infielders, and eventually as a possible bench/quasi-platoon option. The downside with him is absolutely no power. Galvis seems to kind of split the difference, and I think could be a sneaky player to grab if you think the power might play up to 20 HRs in PNC Park. I think that's a bit of a stretch, but I could see an argument made for it.

For a little while, I've thought that there's kind of no reason to strongly prefer any of these guys over just hoping for the best with internal options, but I think that's really disastrously wrong. It doesn't move the needle decisively, but any of these options, even Gonzalez (who is tentative at best at SS) would be an extra blanket that at least gets us closer to a steady floor of WC race periphery (that isn't good, but given the option, it's better than a floor of tailspin and non-recovery to well out of the WC race).

Final thought: while it does make sense to let the market set itself and not overpay for any of these ok options, if we are operting in the sane world where we are 100% out of any Machado running, then I'd much rather overpay by a couple million and get the player we think will be the best SS for us. There are still relatively many useful options out there, but at the very least, we need to pluck a few out and go into the season as an underdog projected between 4th and 5th in the division (there will be plenty of takes that have the Reds ahead of us, I think pretty much no matter what unless we did sign Machado), but at least one with a somewhat non-joke payroll of 85M. And even that is sort of a joke.

 

[ChaosAgent]

If I recall correctly, the same exact thing occurred last year.

Ok, so looking at the SS options on the sane premise that we have utterly no chance at signing Machado, I wonder where people are leaning? I tend to think for starters that Ahmed should be set apart, and focus instead on Gonzalez, Galvis, and Iglesias. Gonzalez does seem to be the most obvious offensive upside, but I have no idea of his defense at SS, and I'm not sure how much of an offensive upside is actually there. If you get the 4 WAR player, it's worth whatever salary, but the risk is that you never really get the 4 WAR player and get a really nice 1.5-2 WAR player, i.e., Adam Frazier.

I lean towards Iglesias more and more. His elite defense is an immediate plus, both for mentoring Tucker and other young infielders, and eventually as a possible bench/quasi-platoon option. The downside with him is absolutely no power. Galvis seems to kind of split the difference, and I think could be a sneaky player to grab if you think the power might play up to 20 HRs in PNC Park. I think that's a bit of a stretch, but I could see an argument made for it.

For a little while, I've thought that there's kind of no reason to strongly prefer any of these guys over just hoping for the best with internal options, but I think that's really disastrously wrong. It doesn't move the needle decisively, but any of these options, even Gonzalez (who is tentative at best at SS) would be an extra blanket that at least gets us closer to a steady floor of WC race periphery (that isn't good, but given the option, it's better than a floor of tailspin and non-recovery to well out of the WC race).

Final thought: while it does make sense to let the market set itself and not overpay for any of these ok options, if we are operting in the sane world where we are 100% out of any Machado running, then I'd much rather overpay by a couple million and get the player we think will be the best SS for us. There are still relatively many useful options out there, but at the very least, we need to pluck a few out and go into the season as an underdog projected between 4th and 5th in the division (there will be plenty of takes that have the Reds ahead of us, I think pretty much no matter what unless we did sign Machado), but at least one with a somewhat non-joke payroll of 85M. And even that is sort of a joke.

I like Iglesias and a pitcher. Conventional wisdom would say Gio Gonzalez or Miley, but maybe since we're in Machado-fantasy world I'll reiterate my interest in Greinke if Arizona would eat half his contract. I think they would. I don't know if they would demand anything big in return or if 3/$55 is just about right for Greinke at his age in this market.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Honestly, I think the best option is whichever SS option will take 1 or 2 years. If they're not going to splash for Manny, don't block Tucker. I know that is a non-answer, but none of these guys, except maybe Marwin, have the ceiling of Tucker (elite defense and above average hit tool with wheels). I don't think anyone in their range is going to come in and make much of a difference, so I'm more and more ready to write off this season as a "Wait on Tucker, Hayes, Keller" throwaway season that has an outside chance at turning into average.

I wouldn't be upset if they wanted to bring in Clay Bucholz. He leaned heavily on, I think is was his cutter last year and it became one of the biggest swing and miss pitches of the season. He's an obvious injury risk, but with a new approach that served him well Zona and the NL West and Uncle Ray seeming to do his best work on older pitchers who had success early in their careers, I think they could do a lot worse for a #5.

 

[Winger for Hire]

DJ Double Post time-

I just read a quick blurb on Gio that has me both wanting and not wanting the Pirates to make a move on him. He was throwing his sinker more than any other pitch in Washington, but was getting nothing out of it (under 5% SWSTR and meh GB%), but when he went over to Milly, they dropped that to under 20% and pumped his 4 seamer that went for a 11% SwStr and, while only 26% GB, it produced and insane amount of popups.

So if the Pirates can follow that blueprint, I'm all for Gio. But if they are going to have him pump sinker after sinker because that's their favorite pitch and Gio has it, I don't want a piece of him.

 

[Jules Winnfield]

I can’t believe I’m seeing people discuss Machado or any of the top FA’s and the Pirates. Did we get a new owner or something?

 

[Jaded-Fan]

I can’t believe I’m seeing people discuss Machado or any of the top FA’s and the Pirates. Did we get a new owner or something?

Even I at least did not laugh out loud at the possibility.

It was only a year ago that the Pirates and Marlins were investigated for abusing the revenue sharing dollars.

MLB finds Pirates to be in compliance with how they spend revenue-share money

They got away with it, but if they keep payroll this low you would have to think that they ain't getting away with it a second year in a row.

The payroll is WORSE than last year. They are going to have to raise payroll significantly, and $4 or $5 million will not be enough to keep them out of the cross hairs.

 

[ChaosAgent]

@Winger for Hire all good points, here's where I'm at:

1) I think Iglesias could be had for something like 2/$15, which is a "lot" for the Pirates but nothing too crazy overall. I really believe our infield defense is badly in need of upgrading and going from Moran/Mercer to Kang/Iglesias would certainly make our pitching staff happy.

2) I like Tucker as a prospect but he's not at the level where he "can't be blocked." Look at his numbers last year. He needs to prove it in AAA first before being handed a spot.

3) The Gio blurb has me conflicted, too. But he has historically been better than Miley. He would probably take 2/$17 or somewhere around there. We should be able to afford it.

4) Now I took a look at Buchholz and oh my goodness, what a confusing career. He is either lights-out or gets destroyed in any given season. Crazy. I think I'd marginally prefer Buchholz/Miley because I think our pitching staff is too right-handed overall, but I wouldn't mind signing him.

 

[Winger for Hire]

I know Tucker isn't a can't miss prospect like Soto or Robles or Acuna, but I do see his floor as basically Iglesias. I guess I was sold by his AFL this fall. He showed a very nice bat for a table setter, wheels on the bases, and elite glovework that got a lot of national attention.

And I'm also falling into the Pirates fan trap of go with the similar but cheaper option and use the money elsewhere, when I know damn well that money is refinishing the bowling lanes at 7 Springs.

 

[Jules Winnfield]

Even I at least did not laugh out loud at the possibility.

It was only a year ago that the Pirates and Marlins were investigated for abusing the revenue sharing dollars.

MLB finds Pirates to be in compliance with how they spend revenue-share money

They got away with it, but if they keep payroll this low you would have to think that they ain't getting away with it a second year in a row.

The payroll is WORSE than last year. They are going to have to raise payroll significantly, and $4 or $5 million will not be enough to keep them out of the cross hairs.

Nutting will keep getting away with it until they force him to not to. It doesn’t matter that the payroll is less than last years. He’ll continue to snow people with being competitive, the archer trade, etc to say he’s not lowering salary on purpose when we all know he’s a cheap bastard.

I just can’t believe fans still believe there is hope for a guy like Machado. There is a higher likelihood we see Rafael Belliard back in a Pirates uniform. I thought the goldschmidt and tulo talk earlier was a joke too.

The only players that will sign here first are players that aren’t being signed elsewhere. If you want to win why would you sign to play at an organization that has proven over and over they will not invest to go for it? No high profile player that has not played here will ever sign here. Ever.

Nutting has to hope the stars align for all the young guys and team to have a special year and strike lightning to win it all to ever have a chance at the championship because it sure as hell won’t be from adding expensive impact players via free agency. They need their A’s, Royals, and Rays moment and hope that lasts a few years to gain momentum to raise operating revenue otherwise it’s the same shit every year. Get used to the Chisenhall’s instead of the Machado’s.

FYI Jon Heyman killed the Pirates rumor earlier.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I've liked the idea of Gio on the Pirates for a while, and Grienke would certainly be an interesting gamble for where to spend a serous portion of the "available" cash. On the pitching front, I guess I actually lean most towards Miley, since he has some track record in the bullpen, and so in an ideal world, Keller comes up and displaces him. Between injuries and consistency, I don't think you can plan for that, which is why I don't think the Lyles/bullpenning idea is a very good one, even if it works out as well as it can. If you get Miley or someone else, Williams also has bullpen experience, so in the best case where Keller is blowing the door off the hinges, you can always just put the pitcher who is struggling most in the pen.

Put otherwise, if we go ahead with the depth we have now, I do think that the rotation shapes up to be very strong. This is an overly done cliche, because it's true in almost all cases, but if Lyles or some piggyback hybrid is starter #5, then we're one injury away from 2/5 of the starters being Brault/Kingham and Lyles.

I imagine most of the SS options would be for 1-2 years, with the situation being somewhat where Tucker could force the issue and relegate the SS to more of a utility or backup role. In most cases, that'd be fine. Marwin is sort of the exception, because he's probably not an everyday SS. I think Marwin might end up being a big gamble that goes wrong for whoever gets him, more than I thought at the beginning of the season, and I know this sounds absolutely bonkers, but I kind of like the idea of him being a bigger investment for offense, which then, along with Chisenhall, Frazier, and maybe a guy like Reyes, would give Hurdle some different tools to try and experiment with. There are plenty of senses in which what I'm about to say is complete horse shit, but I also think that kind of managing is Hurdle's strong suit. If he doesn't have his S-Rod on the bench to overuse, but rather multiple utility guys who each have different kinds of tools, it might be better than locking everyone down into an everyday position.

The more you swirl around the different options and kinds of depth, though, the more obvious the Machado idea seems on paper. We have the kind of supplementation via entry level contracts spread around throughout the roster, including -- and this is pretty significant, and different than history (although it's not as rosy if you are more skeptical about Williams, Musgrove, Archer) -- in the depth at starting pitching. Ok, we can talk in circles about Nutting's cheapness or other obvious reasons to doubt, but the path is pretty much right there to have a team that both has Machado and maintains a sub-100M payroll for the next 2-3 seasons at the very least.

Back to reality, the real issue I think is just where you are going to push for more. With Machado, the fit is basically perfect, because you can put him at SS. Pretty much everyone else, you have someone who can contribute positively. Marwin is maybe the only exception. The shitty thing is, even the right pick among the other needs just more firmly secures the mediocrity we've plateaued at.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Pictured below: Baseball writers, fans, and teams

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Even though this should be taken with a massive grain of salt, I do think BuccoMike has some sources close to the Pirates, based on following him for the past couple of years. But this in particular seems to stretch what's believable. The trade value might be believable, because I think Marte's specific talents and cost/control would demand a high return. Ruiz in the mix as well seems like where it's less believable - in fact, given his premium position and Joc's availability, it would make more sense to clear the 5M by including Joc instead of him. But maybe that's close to the value of Marte and a paid down Cervelli.

The contract seems like more of a stretch. I guess in the fantasyland where we are discussing both the idea of Machado and this rumor specifically as serious, there is a sense in which we would have some leverage (............) if Machado's highest offer is 7/175. But a 5 year deal sort of takes him through his best prime years. It would be much more plausible if he had an out after three years or something.

None of this is happening but it's one way to pass the time over this awful offseason. If we were going to sign Machado and make this trade, I'd actually be almost disappointed. The numbers I guess basically pave the way to be affording ~half of Machado's AAV with the salary moved in the trade, and the same amount of salary would potentially come off the books with Dickerson, Kang, Lyles, Chisenhall next year. You could twist everything up and say we "have" to move salary in some fashion, and Cervelli's market has dried up, so this combo package with Marte is the only way to do that, but that seems too convoluted. If we were actually going to just do it, then Nutting should suck it up and lose money for a year, and hope that attendance spikes to augment his precious millions, because we basically have the same kind of cost-cutting measures set to take hold after this season when the cleared contracts would "bring down" the Machado AAV to about 12M.

It just makes a tremendous amount of sense to offer him the 30M AAV and give him an opt-out after the 2021 season. Maybe injuries really screw you up, but otherwise, even accounting for arbitration bumps, the payroll isn't going to clim much over 98-103M. And a lineup that has Marte, Machado, Polanco in the middle of it might actually stand a chance to win 98-103 games.

 

[Winger for Hire]

I think we're grasping at straws now.

 

[NewAgeOutlaw]

This team needs power in a bad way. Their only hope of being respectable in terms of power next season is for Bell, Polanco, and Marte to have breakout seasons in that category.

1/10,000 odds on that happening.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I think Eckstein with Bell is going to be huge. Bell is still a relatively young player, and although this is a bad analogy in some ways, is kind of a half step behind Taillon in terms of MLB experience. In a slightly similar way to Taillon, I don't think we've seen Bell assemble everything he's capable of all at once over an extended period of time. Insofar as they have been comparable, Taillon's floor in his earlygoing looked much better than Bell's, which is probably to be expected given the kinds of players they are (again, to the extent you can compare a control pitcher who also has power stuff, and a big offensive bat learning a new position). Last year, however, we did see extended stretches where Taillon was phenomenal, and I think that's the kind of step forward we need from Bell. Not just the final statline, where it will be much needed to have 25-30 HRs from Bell, but also combined with being a solid middle of the lineup bat in terms of driving in runs.

I think there's reason to question if Bell can do both, especially whether he can both be a quality hitter and a power bat. If Eckstein can get those elements of his game to work in sync, it will be a major boost.

Marte and Polanco on the other hand I think can basically be clocked right now. Both could have injury concerns. As long as Marte is healthy, he's the reasonable best bet for best bat on the team, which I think is a bit of a problem. The power might be there for him to push for even more HRs, but I think he's best utilized as the #2 batter, so that he can also use his speed as a weapon. That means we need more consistency in the #3-6 spots, where you figure Bell, Dickerson, Kang/Moran, and Cervelli figure; it goes without saying that the picture would look a lot better with Machado in the mix.

I was fully on board with the idea that Polanco had emerged as a superstar, and then he did a tumble in a meaningless September game. He sounds and seems healthy, and if that's the case, he might also still be good for 25-30 HRs, especially if he's only out for most of April.

But that's a ton of contingencies, so going 3/3 would be some serious stars aligning shit. You can probably argue that the biggest impact a Machado signing would have would be on the surrounding players, including these three. Simply put, at 1B, Bell needs to be better offensively or it's not worth it, but there's less pressure if you have Machado in the lineup hitting third or fourth and getting 30-35 HRs + driving in runs. Then it's a luxury to be able to construct lineups where Marte can be a regular leadoff hitter, and you have Cervelli or Moran hitting 8th. His direct impact at SS would obviously be crucial, but he solves so many of the problems by sort of making the contingencies that need to happen without him be less important to all line up at once.

Anyways, back to the real world, I do think Bell is the key. There's more there and he's young enough that it's still possible, but we need him taking more steps forward in terms of both the ceiling and the consistency.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Oh yeah, one final note about Machado, in general and in fantasyland: it's possible that Lozano and Boras are going to sort of play a game of chicken in terms of who signs first in this obvious market of collusion. I've seen that mentioned before and it makes a lot of sense, especially if nobody will pony up the big, 8-10 year mega contracts.

I sort of feel like the Phillies will be the key to everything, because they are absolutely positioned to roll out a mega contract to one of the two. To my mind, it almost comes down to the Phillies deciding which one they want. Their payroll is 115M or so, and so it seems totally feasible that if they really wanted to, they could just sign one to a mega deal and then the other to 5/180M, but I think that might stretch them too thin for signing Trout in a couple of years. My expectation is sort of that they'll end up getting Machado for 3B and Harper will go back to the Nats, but if they want to take Harper from the Nats and position themselves for an outfield of Harper + Trout in a couple of years, then maybe it's possible that Machado doesn't have a clear landing spot.

But nobody really knows. With all the bullshit collusion from the owners, anything could really happen, and we can waste hours spinning in circles about this. I'd guess we might need Harper to sign first, wherever that is, but with spring training approaching, maybe the Dodgers would deal Pederson and sign Pollock, and the Reds or somebody else (indeed, maybe even the Phillies) will ink Keuchel, and the two big guns will still be available when pitchers and catchers report (which is now less than three weeks away).

 

[ChaosAgent]

we can waste hours spinning in circles about this.

I'd hate to see that happen!

For what it's worth I also think at least 1 player will outperform Marte offensively. Last year Polanco, Cervelli, Frazier, and Dickerson had higher OPS+ than Marte. Add Bell and Kang in the mix...

Kind of crazy that we have 7 players that are all in the "pretty good" category offensively - and yes I'm counting Kang here - but none that are great.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

A bit surprising but not a shocker. You'd think that this might take them out of the running for Marte, but that's not certain. It almost certainly takes them out of the running for Harper.

Sounds like there are escalators and opt-outs, and the number I am seeing floated is around 5/60M. That's a pretty good gamble for a team that can afford it and will likely not need him to play every single day. Duarte was saying that an agreement to trade Pederson would need to happen for this, either before or after the signing, so it will be interesting to watch whether there are any more pieces to fall in place.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

This makes a lot of sense... Realmuto another RH bat, and with Pollock and the core that already is there in LA, makes them just as good or better than if they spent the big money on Harper or Machado (who doesn't really fit unless you move Turner to 2B). Could easily leave the Pirates out totally in the cold here, and just move Ruiz + Verdugo for Realmuto.

IF Joc was traded, then maybe it's plausible that the Dodgers would still want in on Marte. Their OF would currently be Bellinger, Pollock, Taylor, and Hernandez. It seems to make a lot more sense to just keep Joc, and have Joc, Bellinger, Pollock, and Taylor partially as some RH balance out there, and get the additional RH bat in the form of Realmuto. Maybe the only kink is if Miami would demand Urias or something for Realmuto.

 

[ChaosAgent]

A bit surprising but not a shocker. You'd think that this might take them out of the running for Marte, but that's not certain. It almost certainly takes them out of the running for Harper.

Sounds like there are escalators and opt-outs, and the number I am seeing floated is around 5/60M. That's a pretty good gamble for a team that can afford it and will likely not need him to play every single day. Duarte was saying that an agreement to trade Pederson would need to happen for this, either before or after the signing, so it will be interesting to watch whether there are any more pieces to fall in place.

If 5/$60M is that number, then this is just more evidence that players need to strike. Jacoby Ellsbury, who was a very similar player to Pollock, got 7/$153M 5 years ago.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Nightengale is saying it's actually 4/~50M with incentives and opt-outs.

Also, looks like the Cubs got Brad Brach, which is more vaguely bad divisional news.