OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Offseason at the Crossroads

[DJ Spinoza]

As the fantasy of a Machado signing further withers, I'd just say that if we did manage to convince the Dodgers into a package similar to the one that was floated above for Marte and Cervelli, getting Pederson back would actually be pretty significant. He's not as good as Marte, but he's a much better player to get in return if you are going to deal Marte and sign Machado, because he'd slide into the everyday lineup and be good for 25+ HRs, especially in PNC Park.

It's a bit opaque to me why he's insisting that Joc will be dealt, since with Pollock in the fold, their OF is balanced if you have Taylor in the mix. They could move Pederson and then eventually have Verdugo enter the mix, but that's a step backwards to just save 5M? The current OF with Taylor floating between 2B, CF, and occasionally SS seems like it's already pretty balanced.


Edit: Also, Cubs got an insane deal on Brad Brach at 3M. We don't exactly need a RH reliever, but at that price, Brach is an outstanding pickup.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

An update from our fearless offseason speculator:



I'm digging deep into the replies for this one, and earlier dug even earlier to what's certainly a fabricated rumor on Pirates twitter than the offer to Machado is 8/185M with an opt-out after three years. I guess it's fun to spin around this bullshit while there's nothing else baseball-related that's interesting, but I do get the sense that an opt-out might end up being a major factor in any deal for both him and Harper.

And I think I'm pretty settled on thinking further that the first domino to fall in this whole equation is probably what Philly does, and I think perhaps that also means what happens with Harper. In other words, if he goes back to Washington, then Philly almost definitely moves swiftly for Manny. I doubt it will be a huge factor, but it might be worth noting that the Phillies are pretty dominated by RH bats. I think they also want to wrest Harper from Washington, which gives them a pretty decisive advantage over the rest of their division, since Machado likely goes back to the AL and Chicago in that case.

In fact, the Phillies getting Harper is probably the best case scenario for maintaining this fantasy that we could really sign Machado in whatever fashion, just because it doesn't appear like there would be any other real suitors for him with them out of the picture. But as it stands, it's probably a good bet that Harper returns to Washington on the closest thing that's possible to a mega-contract in this collusion-filled environment, and then Philly gets Machado for 3B. I do think something weird is going on with the Pirates, since these kind of smaller deals like what Cabrera, Brach, Pomeranz have gotten have their mark all over them, but it's very possible that we're just waiting for certain prices on Iglesias/Galvis and a LHP reliever. Still too many free agents hanging out there to jump to conclusions about a couple of maybe ok fits going off the board.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Kind of shocking

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Seems like a relatively extreme hot take, but I guess if you saw him failing to really be a starter. He did get hit hard in multiple games, but it seems like that's been par for the course with every level jump, even if it was more extreme in AAA. IIRC he was able to string together some fine, but not spectacular kinds of starts. I can see pumping the brakes on him as a top-20 prospect maybe, but with the track record, and more importantly the stuff/control, it just seems like a random guy doesn't like him for some reason.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Ralph cited those rough outings, weak arsenal, and fastball that doesnt always show plus

 

[DJ Spinoza]

The fastball thing is probably the most potentially worrisome. I've barely watched him so I have no real idea, but to me he basically seems like a carbon copy of Taillon. One thing that might be worth noting is that it make take him a while to really press for a callup. We're obviously waiting until Super Two passes, but he hasn't really shown extended stretches at AAA of anything more than pretty good.

So add that to the list of reasons we should be exploring a more serious #5 starter option. I take the skepticism over Keller with a grain of salt, but I'm curious to see what people who have seen him have to say. I think he's an easy guy to call into doubt because he doesn't totally floor you in any particular way, which is how he reminds me of Taillon. Just kind of glancing back at some of Taillon's MiLB statlines, and what we need to see from Keller is something close to his 2016 ones, which aren't all totally dominant. Obviously with Taillon's injury the comparison isn't a great one, but I'm still pretty confident in Keller when he finally arrives.

 

[Winger for Hire]

I haven't seen him outside of packaged clips, so I dont have a great view.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

As we head into Friday and then PiratesFest this weekend, this seems like we've come full circle this week. Here it seems pretty clear that Gomez is willing to just vaguely associate other possibilities with the mystery team idea, whose source is Machado's dad.

The truth as ever is that nobody really knows what's happening, but I think it's a safe bet that the White Sox have made the biggest offer, and there's generally a waiting game to play with the Phillies and Harper. In my mind the big question is starting to become when the secondary market and beyond might start moving. Last year, one of the biggest free agents in Cain wasn't signed until January 26, and a number of big or relatively big names, such as Arrieta, Lynn, Walker, Moustakas, Cargo, etc were not signed until early March. We're moving at a similarly glacial pace this year, but there's more talent at the top, and probably in the second and third tiers.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Double-posting for some more crazy rumor luck heading into the weekend. I wonder if the Braves might be a team that we could line up with in a Cervelli trade? They have money, and are still being connected to Realmuto (Braves' GM Anthopoulos On Kimbrel, Trade Market), so maybe it's an opportunity to take advantage of the depth of their system. There are a ton of relatively close to ready LHP arms in that system, or that have just graduated, like Max Fried.

Of course, two issues with this are 1) it really doesn't make sense to just move Cervelli's salary unless it's directly tied to something crazy like Machado, and 2) if there isn't much of a trade market for him, then it especially doesn't make sense. Combined, the smarter course to steer seems to be waiting until the deadline, when he might have almost as high a value.

I'm curious to see how these relievers end up falling off the tree. I still do like some of the quasi-reclamation LHPs, who I expect us to be more in on, but I think Romo might be a pretty nice pickup for the pen. At this point, I'd be happy enough to just sign Romo and Iglesias and let the rest of the league deal with the other FAs. That would probably put the payroll at a pathetic 80M, but whatever. We're like a month from spring training games.

 

[Richard]

The Pirates will only subtrack payroll from here on out. You can tell because they are back to their pre-2015 marketing campaign - "oh hey, we have fireworks and 80's night and bobbleheads....."

No where in any of the 1500 pirates emails I've gotten to purchase ticketes (which I never will again, unless its the world series) does it mention actually watching baseball.

The writings on the wall with this team fellas

 

[Winger for Hire]

Holy crap guys... at least we're not Miami:

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Justin Wilson gets 2/10M from the Mets, which probably sets the market for LHP relievers, as he's the best one out there probably. However, old Pirates friend Oliver Perez put up some pretty good numbers last year.

Edit: well that was quick, Perez is staying in Cleveland for one year, 2.5M, with an option for 2020.

Maybe I can speak action into this f***ing offseason by saying player names: Harper! Machado! Keuchel! Marwin! Romo!

 

[Winger for Hire]

Word is the Padres are the "mystery team" on Machado, so we can put our dreams to bed.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Was just coming to post that, but this says they aren't the famed mystery team, but rather a newer suitor: Padres are now chasing Manny Machado

Chances are absurdly high that the original mystery team is "we don't have offers we like or any leverage with Cashman or the Phillies GM, so f*** it." I was reading something from I think Andy Martino that says Cashman is notoriously difficult to even get formal offers out of, and part of me wonders if NH is somewhat similar, with the obvious difference being that while both are like sharks lurking secretively for a strike, NH is never going to go after big prey.

 

[Winger for Hire]

 

[KIRK]

Holy crap guys... at least we're not Miami:

Holy crap guys... at least we're not Miami

Maybe that should be the 2019 Pirates team slogan?

 

[Richard]

Holy crap guys... at least we're not Miami:

MLB 2019 Payroll Tracker

Miami has 10M more in payroll than us. We are second from the bottom. Like I said, if ANYONE buys a ticket shame on you. Contraction, move, or change of ownership. Status quo is dead in this town.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Moralizing is for children - there are plenty of actual problems in MLB, probably starting with the 10+ billion dollars in profits the league makes while trying to pay MiLB players less than the measly minimum wage.

 

[Winger for Hire]

MLB 2019 Payroll Tracker

Miami has 10M more in payroll than us. We are second from the bottom. Like I said, if ANYONE buys a ticket shame on you. Contraction, move, or change of ownership. Status quo is dead in this town.

I mean, this is a case where I'll argue that money spent doesn't equal success. If you can seriously look at the Marlin's roster and tell me they're a better team because they spent more money, then I can finally utilize my ignore list.

 

[Richard]

I mean, this is a case where I'll argue that money spent doesn't equal success. If you can seriously look at the Marlin's roster and tell me they're a better team because they spent more money, then I can finally utilize my ignore list.

1 spending team= world series champion last year
#9 spending team World Series champs 2017
#5 = World series champs 2016
#13= World Series 2015
#5=WS 2014 champs
#3= WS champs 2013
#7= WS champs 2012
#10= WS champs 2012

For an average payroll ranking for the world series of 6.63.

The Pirates highest ranking during the period was at number 21.... with 10M of that on the disabled list (aka insurance).

Bottom 5 spending teams going into 2019= 2 championships between them since 1990 (all by the Marlins who were top 5 or 10 in payroll each time and then had a complete firesale)

Add me to the ignore list. Watching this team for actual BASEBALL is a waste of time and has been for most of the last three decades. I hope they move.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Man, I guess I'll have to change my stance on the Pirates being cheap away from my old stance of, well, the Pirates are being cheap.

 

[KIRK]

Man, I guess I'll have to change my stance on the Pirates being cheap away from my old stance of, well, the Pirates are being cheap.

Quite the departure . . .

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Ahh this part of the offseason. Hello, old friend, hello!

 

[Winger for Hire]

I can't believe I got shit for saying the Pirates were better than the Marlins

 

[Winger for Hire]

A friend is at a Pirates QA with NH tonight.

Neal said that an Opener is not something he wants to do. Only will consider it if multiple options struggle in the #5 role.