OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Offseason at the Crossroads

[DJ Spinoza]

 

[Winger for Hire]

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I sort of nihilistically hope this happens. Whether Gray is the right addition or not, let's have this half-assed offseason look as bad as possible.

 

[Winger for Hire]

I just saw that Gray's home/road splits were separated by like 5 runs.

Not that GAB is much of a pitcher's park, he sure as hell could do a lot of damage should they get creative with his turn in the rotation or he is just one of the guys who can't pitch in the NY spotlight.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, it would be an interesting little case study, because you'd think that the stadium might present him similar problems. Still no move, but Heyman has mentioned 2B Shed Long and C Tyler Stevenson, as well as a draft pick, as what the Yankees like. One or both would be a pretty good haul, those are 50 FV guys, seemingly between 5-10 on the Reds pretty decent list. No real idea if the Reds would give that up, bit it would be a notch above what I'd want us to do.

I'm basically fine moving whoever not named Keller, Hayes, Cruz, Tucker, or Swaggerty--too much upside/position of need for a rental, but whatever else should be fair game. Something that combined Mitchell/Sanchez/Reynolds and Ashcraft/Thomas/Jennings seems more than fair - a chance somebody becomes a riser, but not a real overpayment. If the Yankees can get more than that, more power to Cashman.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Yeah, it would be an interesting little case study, because you'd think that the stadium might present him similar problems. Still no move, but Heyman has mentioned 2B Shed Long and C Tyler Stevenson, as well as a draft pick, as what the Yankees like. One or both would be a pretty good haul, those are 50 FV guys, seemingly between 5-10 on the Reds pretty decent list. No real idea if the Reds would give that up, bit it would be a notch above what I'd want us to do.

I'm basically fine moving whoever not named Keller, Hayes, Cruz, Tucker, or Swaggerty--too much upside/position of need for a rental, but whatever else should be fair game. Something that combined Mitchell/Sanchez/Reynolds and Ashcraft/Thomas/Jennings seems more than fair - a chance somebody becomes a riser, but not a real overpayment. If the Yankees can get more than that, more power to Cashman.

I'd like to get Gray, but would really rather not trade Reynolds. The guy looks like a starter in 2020. Though I guess you can argue that he's more of the same, an average-ish player for a team full of them.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I'd be less enthused about losing him too, in part because our depth isn't really amazing (I suppose the decision would center around whether you like him or Martin more), but it'd be the kind of calculated risk I could stomach, whether we are talking now or in a potential deadline move.

I don't think it's ridiculous to assume we might still be involved, but I also am more persuaded to think that we're totally fine entering the season with a bit less depth, and figuring that we'll be able to come up with a decent enough bridge to Keller. It's a little bit risky, but will be fine if everything works out according to plan.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Milwaukee can clear Braun's 19 million salary off the books in two years. It's not unthinkable that it would be them, though that would be a tall order for the next two years, and you'd think if they were going to make a splash, it'd be for a pitcher.

I get the sense just generally that fans are down on the sport this offseason, and it's hard not to be. I'm at the point where I want Gray to be traded and Harper and Machado to be signed just so something can be happening. I think it would be a good idea to force free agency to happen within a certain window.

 

[Winger for Hire]

I know I've said it before, but having two 26 yr old FAs who are on HoF paces having only a couple teams offering them and the ones that are offering are lowballing them just makes me increasing frustrated.

Even more so when the team I root for has a hole in there lineup and one of those FAs fit that hole like a damn glove.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, I think the worst part is the depressing reality of MLB actually has me racking my brain to think of who the mystery teams could even be. Maybe the Rangers? The idea of multiple mystery teams certainly seems like a ploy to drive up bidding, but Andy Martino is reporting two as-yet unidentified teams are involved, and he's met with at least one. The Rangers and Padres both seem to have the resources and need. Maybe an outside shot is the Braves.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Here's the latest on Gray. Reds fans do not seem enthused at all, preferring to use top-10 prospects in pursuit of somebody like Kluber, which I think makes total sense. Heyman's tweet is being reported as thought it might be both of those guys and a pick, which seems like a massive overpay to me. I read him as saying either Long or Stephenson and another prospect and pick, which seems still like an overpay but not totally insane.

The pick is where things get a bit tricky. In any case, this seems too prospect-rich for the Pirates to even be involved, given Keller on the horizon. He'd be an excellent addition for both reasons of depth and upside, but I think to move forward with the deal, you'd have to have some kind of horizon where you continued to use the bullpen creatively, maybe by having Musgrove eventually become an opener or multi-inning guy. The sort of "classic" approach to take would be to just get Gray and have five set starters, reserving Keller for inevitable depth, and otherwise making him force the issue a little bit. Chances are pretty decent that somebody will get hurt or have a rough patch, opening up some opportunity, but I think we'd need to get a bit more creative.

The other argument for a more classic approach is that it's probably unwise to count on Keller coming up and both making a smooth immediate transition AND pitching a lot of innings. He had 142 last year which is good, but he'll still likely be shut down at some point. So just in theory, if you acquired a more solid fifth starting option, you could bank on Keller getting some brief opportunities at some point, and then eventually filling in however he can, with some starts and some relief outings (sort of like Walker Buehler last year, but the analogy isn't perfect).

Seems like the Reds will likely get him, and I have to assume the idea is to reunite him with his old pitching coach and then convince him to sign longer-term, rather than tap into the top echelon of their list to go after Kluber.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Big Shed Long fan... would be a nice get for the Yanks.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Big Shed Long fan... would be a nice get for the Yanks.

Bigger fan of Garage Tiny and Lean To Tall

 

[ChaosAgent]

Here's the latest on Gray. Reds fans do not seem enthused at all, preferring to use top-10 prospects in pursuit of somebody like Kluber, which I think makes total sense. Heyman's tweet is being reported as thought it might be both of those guys and a pick, which seems like a massive overpay to me. I read him as saying either Long or Stephenson and another prospect and pick, which seems still like an overpay but not totally insane.

The pick is where things get a bit tricky. In any case, this seems too prospect-rich for the Pirates to even be involved, given Keller on the horizon. He'd be an excellent addition for both reasons of depth and upside, but I think to move forward with the deal, you'd have to have some kind of horizon where you continued to use the bullpen creatively, maybe by having Musgrove eventually become an opener or multi-inning guy. The sort of "classic" approach to take would be to just get Gray and have five set starters, reserving Keller for inevitable depth, and otherwise making him force the issue a little bit. Chances are pretty decent that somebody will get hurt or have a rough patch, opening up some opportunity, but I think we'd need to get a bit more creative.

The other argument for a more classic approach is that it's probably unwise to count on Keller coming up and both making a smooth immediate transition AND pitching a lot of innings. He had 142 last year which is good, but he'll still likely be shut down at some point. So just in theory, if you acquired a more solid fifth starting option, you could bank on Keller getting some brief opportunities at some point, and then eventually filling in however he can, with some starts and some relief outings (sort of like Walker Buehler last year, but the analogy isn't perfect).

Seems like the Reds will likely get him, and I have to assume the idea is to reunite him with his old pitching coach and then convince him to sign longer-term, rather than tap into the top echelon of their list to go after Kluber.

Gray at that price makes sense if you believe you can also extend him and he has a good chance of bouncing back. Could you tack on 3/$30 to Gray's contract right now if you're the Reds and roll the dice that he's going to basically be AJ Burnett with the Pirates once he left Yankee stadium? I would.

I also don't like our starting depth. Pitchers get injured and:

• Kingham looked good initially last year but then got hit like crazy.
• Brault is AAAA.
• We lost Hearn (I really wish we could have a do-over on that trade)
• Lyles just screams "2016 Ryan Vogelsong" to me
• Keller may not immediately dominate or even be good
• I do like JT Brubaker as a sneaky-good prospect - he would probably be the first guy called up in the event of injury in the rotation. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he turns out least as good as Chad Kuhl.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yes, I think our depth is an issue. I do like Kingham to bounce back some, and the idea of keeping some competition open in spring training and figuring things out as the fifth starter becomes more necessary isn't horrendous, but it's fraught with a lot of pitfalls. This is especially true insofar as it seems like the best way to compete for a playoff spot in our case is to get as good of pitching as we can. The difference between a viable innings eater and someone with serious upside is pretty much the difference between always being able to win a series based on pitching matchups alone, which seems pretty crucial for the division.

Still, if it's Long + Stephenson, I don't know that we can match that. The Reds simply have a better and deeper system. Stephenson is hard to compare with because he's a premium position, but just for example, Reynolds + Tucker probably is close, with the edge going to the Reds still... plus a draft pick? Wouldn't touch that deal. Good for Cashman if the Yankees can pull it off, and maybe obliquely good for us that the Reds are taking a reasonably sized gamble instead of spending the resources on Kluber.

The Pirates could be waiting out the market to see if they can get Miley on a one year deal or something, but if that's the case, it's just more depressing. We entered this offseason needing decisive action and are getting more half-measures.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I wouldn't mind Miley. He pitched really well last year and we could use a lefty. I don't know how to quantify this, but our pitching staff is too right-handed for my tastes. In a series opposing hitters don't really have to worry about facing left-handed pitchers aside from Vazquez - and he's basically a freak pitcher that I think the approach to facing him is fundamentally different anyway.

I'd like a bigger upgrade at SS and/or something to make Josh Bell sweat a little bit at 1B. If we got Miley and Ahmed, I wouldn't completely despise this offseason.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, I'd be content with that, or even just signing Galvis and a pitcher. I do think I'd be a bit cautious about multi-year deals and any potential #5 options like Miley. But unless I'm mistaken, he has some history of success in the bullpen, so that could alleviate that worry a bit, even though he wants to start.

The payroll disparity within the division is going to be pretty hard to overlook, regardless of what happens. If the Reds add Gray or other comparable salary (let alone turning to Keuchel or making the big trade for Kluber), then we could sign Machado at a 30 million clip for next year and still have the lowest payroll in the division. That sort of says it all.

 

[Winger for Hire]

 

[Winger for Hire]

The Buccos are in the driver seat for the 2019 Cost Efficient Wins title.

I believe they give out the Jeffery Loria Trophy for that one.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

 

[Empoleon8771]

The frustrating thing with Machado is that it makes so much sense for the Pirates to be the mystery team in on him, but the single fact that Nutting will never approve that contract kills the rest of the logic behind it.

 

[ChaosAgent]

The Buccos are in the driver seat for the 2019 Cost Efficient Wins title.

I believe they give out the Jeffery Loria Trophy for that one.

It's sad, because I'd really like to see what Huntington could do if he had a $120M payroll to work with. To build a .500 team with pathetically cheap ownership is not a small feat.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

The frustrating thing with Machado is that it makes so much sense for the Pirates to be the mystery team in on him, but the single fact that Nutting will never approve that contract kills the rest of the logic behind it.

Yeah, just starting at the payroll breakdowns it makes so much sense it's depressing. I'm sure I do not need to launch into any reminders of my hare-brained exercises in hypotheticals over the past few winters, but it's just so unbelievable that I can't bring myself to begin doing much ballparking more than this. With Cervelli off the books next year, not to mention some moderate contracts like Dickerson, Kang, etc., you have to figure that Machado could be signed for ~25 million a year and we could still skirt under 100 million payroll almost indefinitely. Sure, several players will move into arbitration, but we're talking moderate raises for Taillon, Bell, Musgrove. The base remains pretty low, especially if you figure you'll continue having guys on rookie contracts, like Keller and Tucker.

Besides Taillon and perhaps Bell, the players who would make big arbitration winnings are already inked to specific contracts. Vazquez goes up to 10 million in 2022 (on a club option no less...), so perhaps around that point, you have to start breaking it up, but that's the case anyways with how the roster is structured. We could have Machado through the window and keep the payroll no higher than it ever was, and then figure out what to do in 3-4 years, likely including the option of trading an in-his-prime Machado and getting out of the length of the contract. Maybe the return wouldn't be showstopping, but it would probably still be half decent for a retool/rebuild, and it's less important anyways because he's not homegrown talent.

This is a market opportunity for the team if there ever was one. The only way it would be plausible is if Nutting could be sold that attendance would increase and the team could stretch back to what they did spend for about 1.5 years one time. But just with some back of the envelope math, it doesn't seem like they'd need to spend more than that, and so bracketing the other obvious that Machado would never come, maybe there's some small .01% glimmer of hope. If it actually happened I think we'd all be shocked speechless.

In other news, the Gray trade still hasn't been announced (but it's Long, a 30-something pick, and maybe a lesser prospect), leading to some speculation that they want to sign an extension. If that's the case, I think it would be a good, relatively low risk move to get Gray. If it's just for one year, and TBD after (try to convince him to stay), then it's still not terrible, but I'd really balk at giving up such a high pick. But if they can get him signed to an extension, then it's a decent speculative risk to improve their team right away without really dipping too far into their prospect pool (Long's defense isn't the best, and Senzel already might have to shift to 2B because Suarez is locked in).

My expectation for how things will play out at this point is that the Phillies will sign Machado and Harper will go back to the Nats. Maybe one or both of them will have some kind of opt-out, but this seems like the most logical outcome. I could see the Phillies getting Harper, but it sort of makes more sense to me that they'd have Hoskins at 1B, Machado at SS/3B, and then Trout in the OF in a couple of years.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

It will be pretty interesting to see if Gray is extended. You'd think he would be more interested in a prove it year and then a big payday rather than 3 years at 35 million or something. That's a nice payday and maybe you take it, but from his perspective, he could probably pretty much shit the bed this year and still get an incentive-driven contract for close to that yearly AAV next year anyways. Maybe the pitching coach sells him on it, but if I were him I'd want to be traded to a team with a cavernous park and build value.

It would be truly MLB offseason fitting if this trade collapses because they can't extend him.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Called it! Of course the Reds are trying to extend him first. That's the only way that package makes sense.

There are sometimes players where everyone is like "ohmygod, such a great buy low candidate. Let's get him." and meanwhile about 50% of the league has that exact. same. idea. That entices a bidding war and that player ceases to be a great buy-low guy. That's exactly what happened here.