OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Offseason at the Crossroads

[FlightlessBird]

The team is totally going to use Blass' retirement to try to draw any negative sentiments about the team away from the news.

Fans: The team is floundering
Team: Shh, you want to ruin Steve's last season of being a Pirate?

Fans: You guys didn't make any moves during the trade deadline.
Team: Remember that Spet 28th is Blass Bobblehead night!!

I thought the exact same thing.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I feel like we're about due for a vague assertion that we might be in on Machado for some kind of false-ish hope over the next few weeks. I say false-ish hope because even if a seemingly credible rumor surfaced, there's no way I'd believe it.

 

[Winger for Hire]

That's a look that says, "Wrap it up. Do you know how much electricity costs?"

 

[Winger for Hire]

FOR THE LOVE OF GOD OFFER. BOB, NEIL, FRANK, OFFER THE MAN 8 YEARS $250, AT THE VERY LEAST. SHOW A SPINE AND SOME WANT TO IMPROVE THE TEAM.

THIS COULD BE THE NEW MARKET INEFFICIENCY YOU NEED!

 

[cookthebooks]

'market inefficiency' means dirt cheap with a bit of upside

 

[Winger for Hire]

Bench option, Wilmer Flores is signing with Zona. Eager to see what kind of 1 yr deal he got so I can be even more depressed.

 

[TimmyD]

Bench option, Wilmer Flores is signing with Zona. Eager to see what kind of 1 yr deal he got so I can be even more depressed.

How can you be depressed when they have so much financial flexibility though?

 

[Winger for Hire]

Goddammit

 

[DJ Spinoza]

That's good value for Wilmer, but the thing I keep coming back to is that the gaping hole is SS. I think there is some potential spread around the other positions, even 2B with Frazier, and I think the eventual plan is for Chisenhall to play some of the corner positions, probably more 1B than 3B.

But SS is the situation that absolutely must be addressed. There's really no reason for foot-dragging on this front. It's true that there's not a huge difference in terms of the options, but we need to pick one and make it happen.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Well, the offseason might suck ass for us specifically and in general as a baseball fan, but at least we have insane drama. This league is such a f***ing joke.

 

[cookthebooks]

as someone only tangentially following the story, whats the genesis of the complaint? the 7 years 175 getting thrown around stemmed from those two?

 

[ChaosAgent]

Well, the offseason might suck ass for us specifically and in general as a baseball fan, but at least we have insane drama. This league is such a ****ing joke.

You have to wonder what is coming after the next CBA expires. There will for sure be a strike/lockout. My guess is that the MLB salary structure looks a lot closer to the NHL's afterwards:
*Restricted Free Agency in place of team control/arbitration
*Cap & Floor tied to % of revenue

I also speculate that the reports are pretty close to true and Machado's agent is doing damage control, especially since he's competing against Boras with Harper who at least has 10/$300M from the Nats in the bag - unless that has been rescinded.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

as someone only tangentially following the story, whats the genesis of the complaint? the 7 years 175 getting thrown around stemmed from those two?

Yeah, he seems to be suggesting that the White Sox have made a higher offer or something. It's sort of confusing. I think Doc is probably right, the reports might be pretty close to true and he's doing damage control.

It is flat out insane that some team won't just offer 10 years, 250 million. There's almost no way that it would end up as a really difficult contract, although I guess to some extent that's easier to say for an AL team where he can become more of a DH as he gets older, but even then, you are talking about well well into the contract before that starts to be a concern.

Machado may not be the most likable player of late, but I think he's a safer bet than Harper at this point, and somewhat more premium of a position.

 

[cookthebooks]

The likeability stuff is a complete lark. People already hated arod when he signed his huge deal(s)

 

[ChaosAgent]

The likeability stuff is a complete lark. People already hated arod when he signed his huge deal(s)

And from an on-field performance standpoint, I find it hard to believe that Robinson Cano isn't the "downside" case...and Seattle was able to flip him at age 36 and get value for it. As I said, the strike/lockout is inevitable.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, those are good points. Projecting far into the future, it seems reasonable to assume he could do something like move to 2B or 1B. The biggest thing is that he seems like a decent bet to remain an elite offensive force until the very end. Obviously Miggy is a high bar, but that seems like the kind of player that is just out there for the taking, at a yearly salary which would only "cripple" the most pathetic of teams who are driven by arbitrary ownership decisions (i.e., us, the Reds, the Rays, the Brewers, and maybe 1-2 more).

For the Pirates, ok within reason I can see that in the longrun, such a big contract presents some big difficulties. But right now and in the expiring window we have with this core, I really can't buy it. There are enough guys who are pre-arb that we could be paying Machado 25 million a year and still keep the payroll at 90 million. Sure, we'd have some big decisions to make after two full seasons from now, but figure it out in 2020.

I think one of the biggest setbacks has been teams being unwilling to commit to a long haul. But I wonder if you could mitigate this practically fabricated risk somewhat by offering the 10 year deal and giving an opt-out clause after two or three years. Maybe it wouldn't be enough to really sway Machado, but from the perspective of a team like us, you'd essentially be gambling that he uses the opt out and you basically just had an elite talent on a very short term contract within the short window that the current core really has.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Yeah, those are good points. Projecting far into the future, it seems reasonable to assume he could do something like move to 2B or 1B. The biggest thing is that he seems like a decent bet to remain an elite offensive force until the very end. Obviously Miggy is a high bar, but that seems like the kind of player that is just out there for the taking, at a yearly salary which would only "cripple" the most pathetic of teams who are driven by arbitrary ownership decisions (i.e., us, the Reds, the Rays, the Brewers, and maybe 1-2 more).

For the Pirates, ok within reason I can see that in the longrun, such a big contract presents some big difficulties. But right now and in the expiring window we have with this core, I really can't buy it. There are enough guys who are pre-arb that we could be paying Machado 25 million a year and still keep the payroll at 90 million. Sure, we'd have some big decisions to make after two full seasons from now, but figure it out in 2020.

I think one of the biggest setbacks has been teams being unwilling to commit to a long haul. But I wonder if you could mitigate this practically fabricated risk somewhat by offering the 10 year deal and giving an opt-out clause after two or three years. Maybe it wouldn't be enough to really sway Machado, but from the perspective of a team like us, you'd essentially be gambling that he uses the opt out and you basically just had an elite talent on a very short term contract within the short window that the current core really has.

I think you'd time the opt-out to be exactly when the CBA expires. He may find something more favorable on the other side of that.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Great point, I hadn't even considered that. I think the key in all of this is what Philly does. It seems like Machado would be an even better fit for them than Harper, but maybe they'll end up with both, and Machado on some kind of short-term opt-out like this. They have the guns to do something like pay one of the years extremely front-loaded and give him a bit more incentive and security than Chicago.

Because outside of mystery teams, it does basically seem like we're down to Chicago and maybe Philly. And if Philly signs Harper... the quote from the agent is peculiar, and seems to be some kind of damage control.

 

[Winger for Hire]

and just because it made me laugh pretty hard before I started to sob like James VanderBeek in the Dawson's Creek gif...

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Was just about to post that. As far as I know, he never clarified if when he wrote Padres twice the other day, one of them was supposed to be Pirates, but I'd be surprised. My sense of things with the team is that there will be a move for a SS, but there's no real urgency and they are just being cheap, whereas I think they are halfway serious about giving Lyles some chances to start, and/or a kind of bullpen day, with the plan likely morphing into Keller coming up whenever he's cleared Super Two.

I want to pick up Gray, if only because getting better starting pitching seems like the only real viable path towards getting a leg up on the division. I don't think the current plan is an abysmal one (moreso that the overall team plan of mediocrity is an abysmal one, rather than the SP plan specifically), but it's somewhat different when divisional opponents are involved. I'm bracing myself for the Reds or Brewers to get Gray + a bullpen arm.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I'm really curious to see how this shakes out. I wonder a bit if this could end up as more of a blockbuster-ish deal, with Andujar being put in the trade and the Yankees getting an excellent young player/top 50 prospect+ back as well.


edit: and in terms of the Pirates, I guess you have to hope that we'd be able to line up on what might be a bit of an overpay, by using either Reynolds or Martin, which gives the Yankees some depth in the OF, where I'm guessing they could use something the most. I mean, obviously they may also want young pitching, but hard to see it for one year of Gray.

I could totally stomach a relative overpay for Gray. But my sense is that we are now back to half-measures and hoping for the best.

 

[Winger for Hire]

I'm not getting my hopes up for anything other than MiLB contracts for the rest of the offseason.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Same -- I guess there was some report from either a Brink story in in Wilborn's story recently, that SP would be more likely than SS, but I don't buy that in general, and in any case, the path being forged is very clearly one of only moderate augmentation by waiting for some bargain contract. I even started looking up something creative and unexpected, like a Gray + Didi package, but they'd be almost 20 million combined in one year... not happening.

I am extremely intrigued by how this one will play out, since Gray is a good speculative candidate for one year. In a pitcher-friendly environment, he should be good value, and there's more ceiling there. If you think you can get that ceiling out of him for a year, then I don't see why you wouldn't press really hard for him, and while I think some of this stuff may mean he'll end up fetching some relatively good talent, there are just too many mitigating factors for me to assume something crazy like him commanding a guy with the talent of Hayes or something. At the very most I could see a trade of a pretty solid 3rd/4th OF type and a low minors pitcher who could be someone to strike gold with. But I think ultimately, it will be part of a more complicated package, and I think the Padres are the best bet.

 

[Winger for Hire]

I could, however, see an Ahmed deal, but I have a feeling that could be a ST deal with the in house options not showing up ready to go.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I think I'm mainly expecting us to wait out Galvis for a while, and honestly, I think I've flipped in terms of wanting him vs. Ahmed. He's nothing special and if his power dips a bit, basically Mercer with a bit better defense, but I'd hope the left-handed bat plays well in PNC, and he seems like he'd be a decent enough bridge and a still useful bench player if Tucker were able to quickly take over the starting job.

For me the temptation to hope for Gray is pretty severe, because in the event that you could get him consistently where he's shown he can pitch before, then that's the most hopeful of all situations in terms of getting a leg up on the division (in tandem with health + good seasons from the rest of the staff, too). But the Yankees can probably command more than the conservative NH can stomach, and more importantly it just seems like we have absolutely no initiative at this point in the offseason.