OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Offseason at the Crossroads

[DJ Spinoza]

A few thoughts on this.

1) This is probably made up, but Cervelli + Marte for Stripling, Taylor and one of the Dodgers top prospects is a trade that certainly clears payroll for us. It favors us, too. We would probably need to add.

2) Stripling is really good. He struck out better than a batter/IP last year.

3) I like Taylor, too, although his strikeout rate alarms me a little. But we're talking about our SS here or just a 1-for-1 Marte replacement. He is also 2 years younger and doesn't have any PED suspension history.

4) I don't get the fascination with Verdugo. We've seen this story before. Prospect comes into a hyped organization (Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers) and does well early on. He pops up in trade rumors every year and gets way more coverage than he would in, say, the Brewers system. Meanwhile at the upper levels...the numbers are still good enough but they stop screaming "star." But he kinda just slides into the #1 slot in his organization which gets disproportionate attention. To me, either Ruiz or Lux is a straight-up better prospect than Verdugo and I'd prefer them in this package.

I think it's fair to question Verdugo. The all-around tools are attractive, but he'd be more appealing if he also had plus speed. The MiLB stats can be a headache to try and read, but in general I could buy the idea that there's a line between above average regular ++ and ok average regular / 4th OF, and someone with this profile could straddle it. Without seeing him, I don't have a strong opinion, but it seems like the power potential is really where you'd want to make a decision, unless you think he sticks in CF.

In any case, he wouldn't be the ideal starting prospect in a package from my perspective. The more I mull it over, the more I think there are just too many moving parts in this kind of deal. Of course clearing both Marte and Cervelli's salary would put us in the sort of insane position to be able to sign Machado for 30M AAV and have a payroll under 80 million (!!!), but I figure the Dodgers are out of the C market after getting Russ back.

In any deal, I'd want Taylor back, who can at least approximate what Marte brings to the table. Stripling is nothing to scoff at, and from the full step-back perspective, with the insane Machado signing tossed in, the team has a dynamite rotation and an offense that is at least in the mix as in the top 8 or so once Polanco is healthy. I just can't really take the leap to seeing NH doing this kind of multi-layered restructuring; it seems much more likely that he listens to offers on everybody, and has ample time to do so while he waits for Galvis' asking price to drop by a couple million.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

LMAO HERE WE GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

 

[Empoleon8771]

The discouraging thing to me is that Machado doesn't sound like he wants to come here, if he's still holding out now despite the Pirates offering more than the White Sox.

I'm all for trading Marte and Cervelli if it means that the Pirates can sign Machado. That's the exact kind of move I think this team should be making, pay superstars huge contracts and surround them with cheaper, pre-arb players.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

It could also be due to term. I think Doc is onto something in that some kind of 3/100 deal is more feasible than 10 for 400 thousand billion or whatever, but if you were planning on getting a huge deal that would pretty much get you set for life, that wouldn't be appealing.

But just to play it out, if you are the Pirates who are constantly worried about cost certainty, you could offer this kind of package that drives the AAV way up and covers your window to compete with the current core pretty clearly. If you are Machado, you have to weigh whether you think you could make more money on this deal combined with a deal you sign when you are 29. It's feasible that he could get a contract for something like 5-6 years, 175 million while still in the prime of his career, but it's also a gamble that you don't get a big injury, etc. But if it's true that the highest offer is for 175 million and many years, it might be appealing to get over half of that all in a short span, and be positioned for another big payday towards the other side of a CBA.

In any case, Gomez is a legitimate source but the way that is worded is a little vague to me. Does he mean several reports he's received personally, or several reports of speculation? In the offseason and in general with this stuff, it's hard to parse. This is still a step away from the random speculation, which, I think we have to admit, at least makes some sense. We're running a lower than normal payroll and desperately need a SS and a big bat. If some more reports trickle out (will be curious what Heyman has to say), then of course we have to go through the part of Pirates fan nihilism where he wouldn't come here anyways.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

I obviously do not post here often. But one thought that might make the Machado interest real and not just the usual PR stunt the Pirates usually do with linking themselves to players they never were actually going to sign.

The payroll is so low now as to attract the negative attention of baseball and the unions. It wasn't long ago that several teams including the Pirates were being investigated by both. This move would curtail that attention and STILL be significantly lower than anyone in their division.

On the other hand I doubt that he would come no matter how much money.

But this is one instance where the rumors actually might have some legs at least from the Pirates' side. Or not. Would not put it past Nutting to welcomed investigation and not care thinking that he could weather it like the last one.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Yeah, the term is a good point to mention. I think you can look at term being a hangup from a bunch of angles, the one I think that sticks out is the Pirates likely wouldn't want to pay Machado for longer than they would pay the guys they're getting rid of. Marte has 3 years left and Cervelli and Nova (yes, I know they already traded him) only have 1 year left, I don't know that they'd want to be paying Machado $25+ million in a year that Marte would normally be off the books.

The rumored White Sox offer was 7 years at $175 million, right? I could see the Pirates offering 3 years at $90 million, which I'm not sure is enough to get Machado. I'd sell off basically anyone making any amount of money with no hesitation if it meant the Pirates would sign Machado.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Now that this is settling into an actual rumor, the other point I was going to make re: a multi-layered Dodgers trade and a Machado signing is that it would make more sense from a team-building perspective to just have Machado on the team in addition to your 30 year old superstar CF... sure, there's an argument to be made that trading Marte for the right pieces would really send the team over the edge, but as things stand, Machado could be signed for 35 million AAV and the payroll would be 103 million.

If you were going to actually pull off the Machado signing, I think you'd probably just bank on the sheer shock of it driving ticket and merchandising sales, rather than clearing off salary to do it. And if you had to clear salary, it'd be a little easier to just give Cervelli away to Atlanta or Houston. Taylor, Joc, Verdugo are all nice pieces to dream on, but the simplest dream is a rotation fronted by Taillon, Archer, and eventually Keller, which has Marte, Manny, Bell, and Polanco in the heart of the order.

Setting aside the problems with Machado desiring to come here, I can't get past the idea that this signing actually makes so much sense and would only result in a payroll that floats around 100 million. Honestly, it just makes a ton of sense but then my brain ceases to function when I move to think it should actually happen, for obvious reasons. I want someone to correct me if I am wrong, but even with reasonable raises for Taillon and others in arbitration, I can't see how the payroll would climb much above 105 million for the next three seasons. Even with arbitration raises, we'd presumably have room to add and stay under that number next offseason with Dickerson, Kang, and Cervelli's salaries all cleared.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, the term is a good point to mention. I think you can look at term being a hangup from a bunch of angles, the one I think that sticks out is the Pirates likely wouldn't want to pay Machado for longer than they would pay the guys they're getting rid of. Marte has 3 years left and Cervelli and Nova (yes, I know they already traded him) only have 1 year left, I don't know that they'd want to be paying Machado $25+ million in a year that Marte would normally be off the books.

The rumored White Sox offer was 7 years at $175 million, right? I could see the Pirates offering 3 years at $90 million, which I'm not sure is enough to get Machado. I'd sell off basically anyone making any amount of money with no hesitation if it meant the Pirates would sign Machado.

I think it's more a matter of general cost certainty, although that seems to be in line with what you are saying. It might be easier said than done to move Cervelli's salary entirely, but I think if you had to clear more room, that would be the way to do it. You could clear Marte too, but Marte makes 10 million and is a star CF. A Dodgers deal is nice in the team-building sense, but I'd be more inclined to just want to go for it with what we already have than really reconstruct the roster like that.

As long as there was willingness to maintain a payroll around 95-105 million, which was promised and only happened fleetingly, I think a deal is doable without clearing massive amounts of payroll. Probably the toughest sell is the 2019 season, when you'd expect this to boost interest and ticket sales again, maybe even right from the jump because of how exciting the move would be, and how the narrative would dramatically shift from Kela+Archer to more of the sale to Kela+Archer+Superstar.

To Jaded's points, I think that's fair -- especially if there's any inkling of moving more payroll, the number would be absurdly low, almost comically so compared to the usual corner-and-cost cutting. That's why I expect the actual signings that might happen to bump the payroll closer to 80 million with talk of not wanting to overpay for mediocre production etc etc and "flexibility" to boost the team at the deadline again.

I do not think that Machado will make any decisions based on what we think of the Pirates. He will sign the contract he signs because he thinks it's the best financial deal. The Pirates have a reasonable enough chance to be competitive in the near future, especially with him in the fold, that I don't think the team itself is of any consideration. The only time I think that stuff matters is when you are talking about a very old player, one who idolized a franchise, or one who wants the best possible chance to win because they are very old. Machado is none of those things and will take the biggest payday he can. I'm totally just speculating with the term thing, but I think that'd be the biggest question for Machado. If the Sox are offering 175 for 7 years, are you willing to take a higher AAV for 3 years and negotiate a contract when you are 29 and the market might have shifted away from even the richest teams brazenly colluding with one another?

I'd be rendered mute if we signed him for like 8 years, 250 million or something. But 2-3 years on a huge AAV does make sense based on the cost control obsessions we have. If this speculation is correct, then I think the big questions are whether he'd take less term and high AAV, and also whether the Phillies would just step in and give him close enough to the long contract. That has seemed likely to me, but maybe they want to take Harper away from the Nats. But if I were the Phillies and I could get Machado relatively without other teams bidding, I'd do that and then get Trout in a couple of years.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

For a triple post on this insanity, I guess the other thing to consider speculatively is if there'd be additional draw for Machado to play SS. It seems like that's where he'd fit with the White Sox, too, but in Philly he'd be a 3B.

 

[Winger for Hire]

 

[Empoleon8771]

For a triple post on this insanity, I guess the other thing to consider speculatively is if there'd be additional draw for Machado to play SS. It seems like that's where he'd fit with the White Sox, too, but in Philly he'd be a 3B.

This tweet raised a really good point with respect to this:



I think it really just comes down to the team's willingness to spend money, like it always has. Are they actually willing to have a payroll at $100 million, or do they want to be mediocre for as cheap as they can get? If I was told that the team was willing to spend money, I think Machado would be super likely. I just don't think that's the case, I think they're content with being mediocre for minimal money.

 

[PensandCaps]

Machado is very overrated and lazy at times. Next Sandoval.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Machado is very overrated and lazy at times. Next Sandoval.

Unsurprisingly everything you said here was wrong. Congrats.

 

[Empoleon8771]

The super frustrating thing is reading Pirates fans saying signing Machado would be a bad move, just go read these posts on r/buccos:

There are no reports. No sources. This is a lie, the Pirates aren’t looking to add a big ticket FA at a position with depth. It’d make more sense for them to sign Iglesias to a single season deal than Machado to a financial burdening 7-year deal.

Where are the reports?

Well my mum mentioned it when I asked her if she thought a guy with the name Machado would be a good Pirate
Then a fortune telling tortoise had to decide between a White Sox cap and a Pirates cap and they walked to the buccos
Oh and Dave around the block told me this news, all I had to do was exchange my spleen for the information

The smugness of jaded Pirates fans is mind boggling to me, how anyone could say that it would be a bad call to sign Machado just blows my mind.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

This tweet raised a really good point with respect to this:



I think it really just comes down to the team's willingness to spend money, like it always has. Are they actually willing to have a payroll at $100 million, or do they want to be mediocre for as cheap as they can get? If I was told that the team was willing to spend money, I think Machado would be super likely. I just don't think that's the case, I think they're content with being mediocre for minimal money.

I do too, but the conjunction of Gomez's report and Mystery Team being the highest bidder do seem to lend themselves to the idea that we'd be willing to have a payroll at 100 million for at least a couple of years. They could be entirely unrelated, but our speculation re: a shorter deal makes a lot more sense than the Pirates offering 200+ million.

Honestly, I think that cost certainty is the major factor in Nutting's decision-making, not simply cheapness. Right now, he's seemingly imposing more austerity because attendance numbers went down last year, but that could be a reinforcing cycle. We've been willing to get the payroll up to 90-100 million, and so just from the question of whether it's realistic if we'd sign him, I think the question to ask is if he'd be convinced that this move would turn around fan sentiment enough to get the attendance numbers back to what they briefly were or better. If so, then to me it's totally plausible that we'd do it, and the question becomes whether another team will actually step up with a big long-term offer, or if Machado would settle for less term an an extremely high AAV.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Related: anyone known what official story is about teams not wanting Manny to play SS? Because glove still plays very well.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I haven't seen anything official in that regard. I think the overriding question is going to be money. If we're involved and the highest bidder, I guess it's possible we could include an out clause for him, or just plan on moving him when the current window is over, but the shorter-term deal makes a lot more sense given how the Pirates operate. There really shouldn't be too much difference between the shorter deal and either a long one with an opt out or a long one with a decision about what to do longer-term in 2021, but I can talk myself 95% of the way into thinking that the shorter team deal is a viable move.

Passan just tweeted that the Reds have officially acquired Gray, so I guess they worked out the extension.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

That's a pretty good deal for the Reds. Gives them some stability, and there's definitely upside if he can perform well. I'm skeptical that it was only the Pinstripes, but he should be good enough to make the contract decent at the very least.

Does anyone remember the timeframe situation on the Archer trade? It all happened very quickly, didn't it? I can't recall if there were speculations and links in the days prior, or if it was just a rumor a few hours before the deadline?

 

[DJ Spinoza]

LMAO this is how you use fake accounts



I'm logging off before I fall for a real fake.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

That's a pretty good deal for the Reds. Gives them some stability, and there's definitely upside if he can perform well. I'm skeptical that it was only the Pinstripes, but he should be good enough to make the contract decent at the very least.

Does anyone remember the timeframe situation on the Archer trade? It all happened very quickly, didn't it? I can't recall if there were speculations and links in the days prior, or if it was just a rumor a few hours before the deadline?

Someone mentioned it the night before iirc cryptically... Then nothing all deadline day, then boom for a hour.

Maybe co. Remembering wrong but thats how i remember it.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

That sounds right to me.

I don't follow Heyman because I find him annoying, and so I've had his twitter feed open in a tab to see if he weighs in on Machado and the Pirates, and he's basically live-tweeting the Sonny Gray signing down to the minutest details after they are already out. He's tweeted 6 times about it.

 

[PensandCaps]

Unsurprisingly everything you said here was wrong. Congrats.

He's not great at getting on base. Has a lack of effort problem.

Not worth 20+mil per. Very very overrated.

 

[pistolpete11]

Would PNC be a factor in Machado's decision? If his plan is to take a higher AAV and then try again when he's 29, I'd think that having big numbers would be pretty important for him. PNC's obviously not great for RH batters. Would GMs/agents/stats be smart enough to factor that in when it would come to his next contract? Would playing SS instead of 3B offset it?

 

[DJ Spinoza]

LMFAO if we do somehow sign Machado, Jerry's gonna be involved somehow. How is he in on literally everything that is happening?

 

[pistolpete11]

He's not great at getting on base. Has a lack of effort problem.

Not worth 20+mil per. Very very overrated.

I don't follow MLB that closely, but I could see the concern of him becoming a fat cat with a long term deal. For a 3 yer deal, though, I'd think he'd be kind of pissed off playing for that next contract. That could be a very good thing for the Pirates.

Just looking at his numbers, his OBP is perfectly fine for the amount of power and above average glove he brings at SS.