Think of it this way: the worst team in baseball since World War II, by winning percentage, was the expansion New York Mets of 1962. They were cover-your-eyes awful, going 40-120, a .250 winning percentage. Let’s assume, despite its absurdity, that the Pirates suddenly transformed to a team with a .250 winning percentage overnight. Their odds of going 5-24 or worse over a 29-game stretch would still only be 23%. Even the worst team in baseball history, in other words, would be unlikely to look this bad over a month of play.
Choose even a slightly better team — the 47-115 2018 Baltimore Orioles, say — and the odds vanish to the point of nothingness. Those Orioles managed a measly .290 winning percentage, but their odds of reeling off a 4-24 or worse stretch are less than 12%. The 2019 Orioles, the team with the lowest projected winning percentage in baseball, clock in at 1.1% odds. If you think the Pirates are a true-talent .471 team, as our odds do, wowzers — their odds of going on this ignominious run were a mere 0.08%. In 10,000 sets of 29 games, in other words, they’d project to play this badly only eight times.
If you’re a Pirates fan, there are no silver linings here. Most of the team has been terrible, and the 10% playoff odds at the break and general good feelings around a few promising players have evaporated.
It works fine with a playoff system, you just take the top whatever teams. But I get it, people are used to divisions.