DanielPlainview
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OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Duct Tape and Bubble Gum
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Empoleon8771
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The Pirates should just blow it up at this point if their pitching staff isn't going to get healthy anytime soon. Keeping guys like Dickerson and Cabrera is pointless if you have a pitching staff that can't keep the opponent below 6 runs.
DanielPlainview
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DanielPlainview
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Most of these guys have solid to very good numbers in AAA, yet they all have been shelled when brought up. Either the Pirates have the greatest collection of AAAA pitchers in the history of baseball or something isn't translating from AAA to the bigs.
DJ Spinoza
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Yeah, we lost this game because of Brian Gorman, but basically every single one of these guys from AAA has not worked outside of an inning here or there. It's one thing to not have somebody in AAA who can step in and replace a backend guy without missing a beat, but it's another thing to not even be able to throw a clean inning.
Unless one or two of them turns around on a dime or we make a trade this week, there's no possibility that we'll even be able to play .500 baseball. Depth and injuries have destroyed everything, but it's probably worth emphasizing the depth: it's not like we really have middle relief depth anywhere. Outside of Burdi I guess, who I'd put with the backend anyways, we pretty much just had to remove Brault and Kingham from that role and then everything went to shit when we began losing the starters.
At the very least, I guess there's no other option but to call up Keller at this point, so at least that's something to watch.
Unless one or two of them turns around on a dime or we make a trade this week, there's no possibility that we'll even be able to play .500 baseball. Depth and injuries have destroyed everything, but it's probably worth emphasizing the depth: it's not like we really have middle relief depth anywhere. Outside of Burdi I guess, who I'd put with the backend anyways, we pretty much just had to remove Brault and Kingham from that role and then everything went to shit when we began losing the starters.
At the very least, I guess there's no other option but to call up Keller at this point, so at least that's something to watch.
DanielPlainview
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DJ Spinoza
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I still can't believe the audacity of that ejection. The only explanation for it is that Gorman got all machismo'd up with Donaldson going like he was going to charge the mound, had the quick trigger to eject him, and then ejected Musgrove to save face. The massive strategic advantage that this gave to the Braves, last night and for the remainder of the series, is just insane. We basically need to rattle off three wins in a row – salvaging the split and then winning 2/3 in Miami isn't really going to do much to move the needle back where it needs to be. I think we're basically facing winning streak or oblivion right now.
FWIW, in Rosenthal's current roundup column, he says that Melky is attracting tons of interest around the league, but the Pirates want to try and get back into contention before thinking about dealing him, and prefer to deal Dickerson. Dickerson's salary and the quasi-inability to play him might make dealing him for anything useful pretty rough.
My inclination is that if good talent is available for Melky, then we should basically pull the trigger on the deal. His stock might not go up any more, and he's on an expiring contract and isn't actually too useful defensively in our home park. If we become full-blown sellers, then we can still move Dickerson for whatever we can get, and Marte could even be in play as well. I really don't think we should move Marte, because his skill set is nearly impossible to replace, and so I'd just as soon ride out his contract. The only way it makes sense is if you are getting blue chip talent that's already in the upper minors.
More generally, you want to say that maybe moving Melky is a wakeup call, but it's not really like this team needs a wakeup call. The GM needs a wakeup call that if he doesn't go get two decent pitchers for the bullpen, we're never going to win more than a game or two at a time, and we're extremely likely to keep replicating these three and four game slides. The division remaining very competitive is something of a safety net, but it also cuts both ways: if you fall to where we are in the standings, the only way to make up the ground is by surging back to the top. Once you get to a certain point in the season, playing sustained, winning baseball won't quite be enough to get in the race again.
FWIW, in Rosenthal's current roundup column, he says that Melky is attracting tons of interest around the league, but the Pirates want to try and get back into contention before thinking about dealing him, and prefer to deal Dickerson. Dickerson's salary and the quasi-inability to play him might make dealing him for anything useful pretty rough.
My inclination is that if good talent is available for Melky, then we should basically pull the trigger on the deal. His stock might not go up any more, and he's on an expiring contract and isn't actually too useful defensively in our home park. If we become full-blown sellers, then we can still move Dickerson for whatever we can get, and Marte could even be in play as well. I really don't think we should move Marte, because his skill set is nearly impossible to replace, and so I'd just as soon ride out his contract. The only way it makes sense is if you are getting blue chip talent that's already in the upper minors.
More generally, you want to say that maybe moving Melky is a wakeup call, but it's not really like this team needs a wakeup call. The GM needs a wakeup call that if he doesn't go get two decent pitchers for the bullpen, we're never going to win more than a game or two at a time, and we're extremely likely to keep replicating these three and four game slides. The division remaining very competitive is something of a safety net, but it also cuts both ways: if you fall to where we are in the standings, the only way to make up the ground is by surging back to the top. Once you get to a certain point in the season, playing sustained, winning baseball won't quite be enough to get in the race again.
DanielPlainview
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Melky has been clutch so it's hard to say move him but he's also hitting significantly above his career average. If things don't turn around significantly in the next couple weeks, if a couple relief arms are offered, might as well pull the trigger.
DJ Spinoza
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Yeah, even if you just get decent relief arms who are controllable for the next year or two, then it's worth pulling the trigger. I am even thinking something similar to the Watson trade, which won't be popular: some fairly high ceiling guys who are many years away. At a certain point, you have to just accept that you likely won't compete, and then in that situation, you do what you can to improve your organization in future years. If we're going to compete this year, it's because the pitching will become better. Cabrera was single-handedly one of the reasons we stayed alive weeks ago, but even in a world where he's gone, I think all the matters is pitching.
That said, there's probably not a huge case to move Melky right away, as in this week. The guy is a veteran with a proven track record of hitting very well. He's outperforming what everybody thought he would do this year, but that just means everyone was wrong in the winter. I don't think there's some kind of scenario where he just loses all his value, outside of getting hurt obviously. Teams basically know what they will be buying with him, so we could at least wait and see how the next two weeks play out. We've got 11 games, and probably need something like a 7-4 run to at minimum get back in striking distance. Much more likely that that will be 4-7, at which point we'll be 8 games under .500 and in the cellar, staring down a bunch of games vs the Brewers, Astros, and Cubs.
Also, Jason Mackey says in his mailbag that "everything he's heard" indicates Keller will start Wednesday: Pirates mailbag: Is there realistic hope for a turnaround?
I've given up on competing for the time being, and I'm definitely going to check out for a while if we don't have Keller pitching on Wednesday.
That said, there's probably not a huge case to move Melky right away, as in this week. The guy is a veteran with a proven track record of hitting very well. He's outperforming what everybody thought he would do this year, but that just means everyone was wrong in the winter. I don't think there's some kind of scenario where he just loses all his value, outside of getting hurt obviously. Teams basically know what they will be buying with him, so we could at least wait and see how the next two weeks play out. We've got 11 games, and probably need something like a 7-4 run to at minimum get back in striking distance. Much more likely that that will be 4-7, at which point we'll be 8 games under .500 and in the cellar, staring down a bunch of games vs the Brewers, Astros, and Cubs.
Also, Jason Mackey says in his mailbag that "everything he's heard" indicates Keller will start Wednesday: Pirates mailbag: Is there realistic hope for a turnaround?
I've given up on competing for the time being, and I'm definitely going to check out for a while if we don't have Keller pitching on Wednesday.
DJ Spinoza
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DJ Spinoza
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DanielPlainview
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Just because I'm a bit bored today...
Looking ahead to 2020:
Starting pitching. Taillon, Williams, Musgrove, and Archer are practically set in stone - there is a fringe possibility of Archer being moved.
Lyles is presumably a one-and-done with Keller coming up, and I fully expect Keller to be the #5 next season.
Relief pitching. Brault, Crick, and Vazquez are the only currently-healthy bullpen arms under contract for 2020 who look like major leaguers.
Assuming he doesn't fall apart, I would not be surprised if Liriano is brought back.
Kuhl, Santana, Kela, and Burdi should all return healthy to fill in the remaining spots. If that plays out accordingly, the bullpen should be as good as it's been under Hurdle. Still, after this nightmare of a season and that group's history of injuries, Huntington should add a few arms for depth just to be safe.
Infield. Bell, Moran, Newman, and Frazier are locks for the 25-man.
Tucker should leave ST in the 25-man (I wouldn't be surprised if he's quickly a mainstay in the lineup, if not immediately), but you never know with how this organization treats prospects.
As for Kang, I'm unsure of his contract situation. I know he signed a 1-year deal, but I don't know if there are options the Pirates can pick up (according to Baseball Reference, he isn't a FA until 2023, but I'm unsure of the accuracy). That said, I'm going to assume Kang will hit around 20 HRs this year and be brought back. Without knowing if Hayes is ready or what he can do in MLB, I don't see them rolling with him on the 25-man out of the gate, even with Moran there.
Catcher. Diaz is now the starter and should be for the next few seasons.
Stallings I am not comfortable with as the #2; he's a fine #3 but I expect more than a .175 hitter as back-up.
Cervelli needs to retire. His skills are on a rapid decline and he can't go a game without getting hurt. If he doesn't retire, he must be released/DFA'd.
Outfield. Reynolds, Marte, and Polanco seem the likely starters. Marte could be a fringe trade candidate, but given the lack of internal replacement options should they do that, I don't see it happening.
Losing Melky and Dickerson opens up the question: what to do about the lost veteran presence and depth (especially hitting)? It's not all that easy to find veterans who fit in the Pirates' budget who can hit like those two have. Assuming no significant additions are made, we're probably looking at Will Craig and/or Jason Martin filling in. Will they be adequate? We really don't know at this point (though, if things go badly enough, we may by the end of this season).
Overall, I expect the rotation to be very good, the defense to be better (w/Tucker), and for the offense to take a significant step backward with the losses of Melky and Dickerson. It would take another gem falling into their lap to fix that problem. Or re-sgning Dickerson.
Looking ahead to 2020:
Starting pitching. Taillon, Williams, Musgrove, and Archer are practically set in stone - there is a fringe possibility of Archer being moved.
Lyles is presumably a one-and-done with Keller coming up, and I fully expect Keller to be the #5 next season.
Relief pitching. Brault, Crick, and Vazquez are the only currently-healthy bullpen arms under contract for 2020 who look like major leaguers.
Assuming he doesn't fall apart, I would not be surprised if Liriano is brought back.
Kuhl, Santana, Kela, and Burdi should all return healthy to fill in the remaining spots. If that plays out accordingly, the bullpen should be as good as it's been under Hurdle. Still, after this nightmare of a season and that group's history of injuries, Huntington should add a few arms for depth just to be safe.
Infield. Bell, Moran, Newman, and Frazier are locks for the 25-man.
Tucker should leave ST in the 25-man (I wouldn't be surprised if he's quickly a mainstay in the lineup, if not immediately), but you never know with how this organization treats prospects.
As for Kang, I'm unsure of his contract situation. I know he signed a 1-year deal, but I don't know if there are options the Pirates can pick up (according to Baseball Reference, he isn't a FA until 2023, but I'm unsure of the accuracy). That said, I'm going to assume Kang will hit around 20 HRs this year and be brought back. Without knowing if Hayes is ready or what he can do in MLB, I don't see them rolling with him on the 25-man out of the gate, even with Moran there.
Catcher. Diaz is now the starter and should be for the next few seasons.
Stallings I am not comfortable with as the #2; he's a fine #3 but I expect more than a .175 hitter as back-up.
Cervelli needs to retire. His skills are on a rapid decline and he can't go a game without getting hurt. If he doesn't retire, he must be released/DFA'd.
Outfield. Reynolds, Marte, and Polanco seem the likely starters. Marte could be a fringe trade candidate, but given the lack of internal replacement options should they do that, I don't see it happening.
Losing Melky and Dickerson opens up the question: what to do about the lost veteran presence and depth (especially hitting)? It's not all that easy to find veterans who fit in the Pirates' budget who can hit like those two have. Assuming no significant additions are made, we're probably looking at Will Craig and/or Jason Martin filling in. Will they be adequate? We really don't know at this point (though, if things go badly enough, we may by the end of this season).
Overall, I expect the rotation to be very good, the defense to be better (w/Tucker), and for the offense to take a significant step backward with the losses of Melky and Dickerson. It would take another gem falling into their lap to fix that problem. Or re-sgning Dickerson.
DanielPlainview
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DanielPlainview
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DJ Spinoza
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I don't know why they kept going to the same pitch. As a team, the Braves are awful against the slider and it's one of the reasons they couldn't hit Archer last week. He's been using a mediocre two seamer to get ahead in the counts, but tonight it seems like he's been trying to mix in a rising four seamer and isn't rising enough. Hence HR derby.
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