DanielPlainview
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- Apr 28, 2009
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OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Duct Tape and Bubble Gum
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Josh Bell has hit more HRs at this point in the season than any Pirate in franchise history. That's incredible.
Honour Over Glory
Fire Sully
- Jan 30, 2012
- 77,316
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It's crazy to see a Pirate being 3rd in the league in HR's.
I feel like the management is going to find a way to f*** it all up.
ImporterExporter
"You're a boring old man"
Considering you had Kiner, Stargell and Bonds, that is indeed impressive.
And he's just flat raking overall. He's on pace to have an all time great year.
DJ Spinoza
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- Aug 7, 2003
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These ten game writeups are starting to feel a bit rote to me, which might be a function of a mediocre team turning out to still be mediocre over the long haul, despite the dramatic highs and lows of the season. But more than that, it probably has to do with the fact that both the recaps and the forecasting have felt like variations on the same overriding theme that we've had coming out of spring training: survive until we can get a more or less full slate of healthy contributors. It's only that this has slightly flipped, with the early season attention being on excellent starting pitching while we wait for Polanco and Dickerson to return, whereas the current attention is on whether or not our pitching can even keep us in a game after the first or second inning.
It's hard to exactly pinpoint where this other trend of utter chin music and knockout blows in the first inning – truly video game stuff where the opponent scores 5 runs with no outs and bats around, knocking the pitcher out – exactly began. The first ugly loss of the season was very early on, 10-0 against Chicago when Newman made multiple errors in an inning and Taillon couldn't bail him out. I suspect that the real origin of it was probably that opening Diamondbacks series at home, where the Diamondbacks scores 7 runs in the 7th inning to set a tone for season dominance. The fact that we tacked on a road series against the Dodgers pretty much sealed the deal, as that was the worst run of games all year.
This framing might give us enough to take a snapshot of the upcoming 7 games, which are all at home, and all against teams more than capable of ending the game in an inning. But first, let's recap:
Taking stock:
A consistent pattern that we've seen this year is exactly this kind of take it on the chin game, followed by more of a small ball, secure the W type of victory. This basically went out the window in the last 10 game stretch, as only our offense was able to power us to victories, more or less. The final scores in the Colorado W and the Cincy L the other day (both of Lyles' starts) are a bit deceptive, in that they featured a bunch of runs late from us in the latter, and a bunch of runs to return a game we were blowing back into a blowout in the former.
I don't think it's controversial to say that we've just weathered our worst 10-game stretch in terms of the feeling of things, simply because almost all of these games that we lost were lost instantly, with no chance of even fighting. Put simply, those of us who have watched every or almost every minute have spent a serious amount of time watching a team completely flail, and our collective confidence is about where you'd expect.
Right now, we have a situation where all eyes should be on the genuine starters. It's feasible that we have a back of the bullpen that can consistently lock down the win, but whether we can even steer a competitive game into the start of the sixth inning is an open question at this point. In the abstract, Musgrove vs. Anderson tonight and Archer vs. Chacin tomorrow should be games where we have some advantage. The story basically writes itself.
Offensively, we continue to be powered by Bell and to a lesser extent Reynolds. It seems like there's a quasi-platoon going on between Reynolds, Polanco, and Cabrera, which is all well and good, but at some point we may need to give Marte a day down as well. I do not think Reynolds is even close to him defensively, but in a small park where Melky could be hidden in RF, and maybe vs a pitcher who has trouble with lefties, we should really stack the deck. The only other comment to make about the offense is that Hurdle is close to costing us games with having Frazier in the leadoff spot. He perhaps needs the 3-day rest treatment to hopefully get himself right, but regardless of how he does it, Newman needs to play. The speed and the hit tool can be big assets in getting an inning working to where Bell has a chance to come up with at least one guy on.
Looking ahead:
While we are obviously all aware that we have 14 straight against two opponents ahead of us in the division/WC race and certainly better than us on paper, I think it's easier to break things down into the next 7 home games, which will be followed by a 10-game road trip, and then a final set of 11 games, 5 at home and 6 on the road, to cap off 28 games in a very tough June schedule (technically 26, since these first two Milwaukee games are in May...).
This is simply because our performance at home has been bad. While the 17-13 road record is excellent, the 10-14 home record leaves a lot to be desired. And as we know, we completely flubbed the previous homestand. We have basically lucked out with how much parity there is in the NL, but another slide could put us more in the 6+ games back territory, where even our fully loaded + perhaps bonus with Hayes or Keller roster is going to have a hard time making up the ground.
With that said, the parity actually has me slightly optimistic. It's a big puzzle piece for what we need in the NL this year, and the other two are going to be for our health picture, especially Taillon and Williams, to turn back around, and for us to avoid stacking bad stretches on top of each other. Our records so far: 3-3. 7-3, 2-8, 8-3, 3-7, for a 27-27 record after 54 games. With 7 home games on tap, you'd like to turn things around and put a little distance between yourselves and .500, with maybe a 5-2 record, winning both series.
Given our circumstances, that would be absolutely crazy. If we had Taillon lining up for both series, and a healthy Williams + good/healthy Kela, then I'd certainly be saying that we need to bank the wins at home so that we can survive the 7 vs them on the road, but given that we continue to scrape for survival, I think the record that does that is 3-4. Avoid getting swept, and pick up the extra win(s) when you can.
The first game is really key, and is an area where we've been a disaster in 2019. If you don't count two game series, then we're 4-10 in opening games to series this year, and 1-8 in the last 9 series.
Season overall:
That last point allows me to try and say something succinctly about the season overall. The lopsided run differential is definitely worrying, but I think that kind of performance to start a series is almost a worse sign. It's that kind of pattern that can very quickly lend itself to losing streaks and the 2-8 stretches that will sink us. I said last time that we need 4-6 stretches rather than 2-8 stretches, and the 3-7 stretch splits the difference. Even with the terrible performance at home, an extra win vs the Reds would have been crucial.
With that said, it is worth emphasizing the parity in the NL. Braves and Nationals are 5-5 in their last 10, Cubs and Brewers 4-6, us and the Cards 3-7. None of those teams are probably feeling great about that run. Certainly, given what we've been seeing, it feels like we're witnessing the beginning of the end for this team, and I'm not sure that my 3-4 modest hope will do much to turn the tide.
But I think optimistically, there's also something to be said for putting Ws in the bank, and we're still in a pretty good position in that regard, and ideally will figure out a way to get some help for this roster.
A final quasi-optimistic point to make here: if you toss out basically all of the blowout games, our run differential is actually right around 0, which is where you'd probably expect it to be for this team on paper, with this record. I suppose there might be a simpler way to tally it up, by tossing the failed opener starts and the terrible Brault and Kingham starts, and if you were a real homer and wanted to just get run of the blowouts and a couple of the lopsided victories, then you could probably fudge our number to be right around the +10-15 that the Brewers and Cardinals are sitting at.
I will say that I think the quantity of blowouts we've had probably means that run differential needs contextualized in a more fine-grained way, even as having such an ugly one is worrisome. But I tend to think that having Ws in the bank, and nowhere to go but up health-wise, overrides this single stat.
tldr;
I spill a lot of words for these recaps, but I think many of us know the drill. We're a mediocre team that is going to have to keep clawing to remain relevant, and then get the right boosts from a combination of players getting healthy, graduating from AAA, and trade acquisitions. It's a tall order, but it almost always is.
At 54 games, the season is 1/3rd of the way over and we're 0-0. June looks like it might be murderer's row, and perhaps a conservative 3-4 won't be enough to enter into it. 4 game series have mostly been our saving grace this season, and with two on tap, we need to stay on that pace. Ideally we can show that we might still have the Brewers' number, but at least earn the split and certainly lock down a win tonight. Anderson usually can't get through the 5th or 6th inning, and we need early season Musgrove.
If we actually show up and have a great homestand, 5-2, we're all going to be over the moon. I'm looking to tread the .500 waters some more, with a 3-4 stretch here, and looking ahead, a 6-4 road trip. It looks like we've dodged a bullet with Lyles, which means he should pitch Sunday. Musgrove and Archer will pitch in the Braves series. So at least on paper, the materials are there to build a winning record, but we need to start one game at a time, and at the very least feel like we might be starting on a good foot. We need to turn around this 4-10, and 1-9 stretch in opening series games, and maybe we'll end June slightly above .500.
It's hard to exactly pinpoint where this other trend of utter chin music and knockout blows in the first inning – truly video game stuff where the opponent scores 5 runs with no outs and bats around, knocking the pitcher out – exactly began. The first ugly loss of the season was very early on, 10-0 against Chicago when Newman made multiple errors in an inning and Taillon couldn't bail him out. I suspect that the real origin of it was probably that opening Diamondbacks series at home, where the Diamondbacks scores 7 runs in the 7th inning to set a tone for season dominance. The fact that we tacked on a road series against the Dodgers pretty much sealed the deal, as that was the worst run of games all year.
This framing might give us enough to take a snapshot of the upcoming 7 games, which are all at home, and all against teams more than capable of ending the game in an inning. But first, let's recap:
Taking stock:
A consistent pattern that we've seen this year is exactly this kind of take it on the chin game, followed by more of a small ball, secure the W type of victory. This basically went out the window in the last 10 game stretch, as only our offense was able to power us to victories, more or less. The final scores in the Colorado W and the Cincy L the other day (both of Lyles' starts) are a bit deceptive, in that they featured a bunch of runs late from us in the latter, and a bunch of runs to return a game we were blowing back into a blowout in the former.
I don't think it's controversial to say that we've just weathered our worst 10-game stretch in terms of the feeling of things, simply because almost all of these games that we lost were lost instantly, with no chance of even fighting. Put simply, those of us who have watched every or almost every minute have spent a serious amount of time watching a team completely flail, and our collective confidence is about where you'd expect.
Right now, we have a situation where all eyes should be on the genuine starters. It's feasible that we have a back of the bullpen that can consistently lock down the win, but whether we can even steer a competitive game into the start of the sixth inning is an open question at this point. In the abstract, Musgrove vs. Anderson tonight and Archer vs. Chacin tomorrow should be games where we have some advantage. The story basically writes itself.
Offensively, we continue to be powered by Bell and to a lesser extent Reynolds. It seems like there's a quasi-platoon going on between Reynolds, Polanco, and Cabrera, which is all well and good, but at some point we may need to give Marte a day down as well. I do not think Reynolds is even close to him defensively, but in a small park where Melky could be hidden in RF, and maybe vs a pitcher who has trouble with lefties, we should really stack the deck. The only other comment to make about the offense is that Hurdle is close to costing us games with having Frazier in the leadoff spot. He perhaps needs the 3-day rest treatment to hopefully get himself right, but regardless of how he does it, Newman needs to play. The speed and the hit tool can be big assets in getting an inning working to where Bell has a chance to come up with at least one guy on.
Looking ahead:
While we are obviously all aware that we have 14 straight against two opponents ahead of us in the division/WC race and certainly better than us on paper, I think it's easier to break things down into the next 7 home games, which will be followed by a 10-game road trip, and then a final set of 11 games, 5 at home and 6 on the road, to cap off 28 games in a very tough June schedule (technically 26, since these first two Milwaukee games are in May...).
This is simply because our performance at home has been bad. While the 17-13 road record is excellent, the 10-14 home record leaves a lot to be desired. And as we know, we completely flubbed the previous homestand. We have basically lucked out with how much parity there is in the NL, but another slide could put us more in the 6+ games back territory, where even our fully loaded + perhaps bonus with Hayes or Keller roster is going to have a hard time making up the ground.
With that said, the parity actually has me slightly optimistic. It's a big puzzle piece for what we need in the NL this year, and the other two are going to be for our health picture, especially Taillon and Williams, to turn back around, and for us to avoid stacking bad stretches on top of each other. Our records so far: 3-3. 7-3, 2-8, 8-3, 3-7, for a 27-27 record after 54 games. With 7 home games on tap, you'd like to turn things around and put a little distance between yourselves and .500, with maybe a 5-2 record, winning both series.
Given our circumstances, that would be absolutely crazy. If we had Taillon lining up for both series, and a healthy Williams + good/healthy Kela, then I'd certainly be saying that we need to bank the wins at home so that we can survive the 7 vs them on the road, but given that we continue to scrape for survival, I think the record that does that is 3-4. Avoid getting swept, and pick up the extra win(s) when you can.
The first game is really key, and is an area where we've been a disaster in 2019. If you don't count two game series, then we're 4-10 in opening games to series this year, and 1-8 in the last 9 series.
Season overall:
That last point allows me to try and say something succinctly about the season overall. The lopsided run differential is definitely worrying, but I think that kind of performance to start a series is almost a worse sign. It's that kind of pattern that can very quickly lend itself to losing streaks and the 2-8 stretches that will sink us. I said last time that we need 4-6 stretches rather than 2-8 stretches, and the 3-7 stretch splits the difference. Even with the terrible performance at home, an extra win vs the Reds would have been crucial.
With that said, it is worth emphasizing the parity in the NL. Braves and Nationals are 5-5 in their last 10, Cubs and Brewers 4-6, us and the Cards 3-7. None of those teams are probably feeling great about that run. Certainly, given what we've been seeing, it feels like we're witnessing the beginning of the end for this team, and I'm not sure that my 3-4 modest hope will do much to turn the tide.
But I think optimistically, there's also something to be said for putting Ws in the bank, and we're still in a pretty good position in that regard, and ideally will figure out a way to get some help for this roster.
A final quasi-optimistic point to make here: if you toss out basically all of the blowout games, our run differential is actually right around 0, which is where you'd probably expect it to be for this team on paper, with this record. I suppose there might be a simpler way to tally it up, by tossing the failed opener starts and the terrible Brault and Kingham starts, and if you were a real homer and wanted to just get run of the blowouts and a couple of the lopsided victories, then you could probably fudge our number to be right around the +10-15 that the Brewers and Cardinals are sitting at.
I will say that I think the quantity of blowouts we've had probably means that run differential needs contextualized in a more fine-grained way, even as having such an ugly one is worrisome. But I tend to think that having Ws in the bank, and nowhere to go but up health-wise, overrides this single stat.
tldr;
I spill a lot of words for these recaps, but I think many of us know the drill. We're a mediocre team that is going to have to keep clawing to remain relevant, and then get the right boosts from a combination of players getting healthy, graduating from AAA, and trade acquisitions. It's a tall order, but it almost always is.
At 54 games, the season is 1/3rd of the way over and we're 0-0. June looks like it might be murderer's row, and perhaps a conservative 3-4 won't be enough to enter into it. 4 game series have mostly been our saving grace this season, and with two on tap, we need to stay on that pace. Ideally we can show that we might still have the Brewers' number, but at least earn the split and certainly lock down a win tonight. Anderson usually can't get through the 5th or 6th inning, and we need early season Musgrove.
If we actually show up and have a great homestand, 5-2, we're all going to be over the moon. I'm looking to tread the .500 waters some more, with a 3-4 stretch here, and looking ahead, a 6-4 road trip. It looks like we've dodged a bullet with Lyles, which means he should pitch Sunday. Musgrove and Archer will pitch in the Braves series. So at least on paper, the materials are there to build a winning record, but we need to start one game at a time, and at the very least feel like we might be starting on a good foot. We need to turn around this 4-10, and 1-9 stretch in opening series games, and maybe we'll end June slightly above .500.
DanielPlainview
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- Apr 28, 2009
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I have to wonder right now if Dickerson > Reynolds. I know that's giving Reynolds a lot of praise, but the kid is a pure hitter and is bringing some power (5 HRs, 15 XBH) already and his defense is good. Dickerson is a gold-glover out in LF but still, the gap is seemingly small. I guess my real question here is, is there really a cavalry coming from the IL for the offense (I get the impression some think so)? It seems to me the only significant net-positive addition would be from Kang finally finding his stroke to bring another heavy bat to the lineup.
I've given up hope that Hurdle will ever be a competent manager. In-game: awful. Picking a lineup: head-scratching at best. Clearly, Frazier doesn't have it right now at lead-off. Clearly, Tucker should be limited to a defensive replacement. Clearly, Newman has a hot bat and shouldn't be batting 8th. Clearly to everyone except the one guy who actually matters.
I've given up hope that Hurdle will ever be a competent manager. In-game: awful. Picking a lineup: head-scratching at best. Clearly, Frazier doesn't have it right now at lead-off. Clearly, Tucker should be limited to a defensive replacement. Clearly, Newman has a hot bat and shouldn't be batting 8th. Clearly to everyone except the one guy who actually matters.
cheesedanish87
Registered User
Hurdle actually put together a pretty good lineup today.
DJ Spinoza
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- Aug 7, 2003
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It's funny, when Hurdle does something good, it almost makes this more stressful because the possible overcorrection is so severe. Like now it feels that we need to run the table on this homestand in order to cement Newman atop the order.
I am not quite on the Tucker only as defensive replacement train yet, but I do think Newman should keep getting starts there until his defense becomes an issue. Newman can also be playing at 2B and 3B – here's a hot take, but Colin Moran is basically an extremely slow Newman who has a touch more power. Tucker should probably be back in AAA getting at-bats, especially because the Pirates are so cautious about Super Two, and he will definitely be eligible if he stays up all year (this is the same reason why I expect some bullshitting to happen when Dickerson is healthy).
I am not quite on the Tucker only as defensive replacement train yet, but I do think Newman should keep getting starts there until his defense becomes an issue. Newman can also be playing at 2B and 3B – here's a hot take, but Colin Moran is basically an extremely slow Newman who has a touch more power. Tucker should probably be back in AAA getting at-bats, especially because the Pirates are so cautious about Super Two, and he will definitely be eligible if he stays up all year (this is the same reason why I expect some bullshitting to happen when Dickerson is healthy).
DanielPlainview
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cheesedanish87
Registered User
NH basically said last week that Reynolds was going down when Dickerson was ready.
Its BS, Reynolds has been our 2nd best hitter since hes been up with the Pirates.
Its BS, Reynolds has been our 2nd best hitter since hes been up with the Pirates.
DanielPlainview
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JimmyTwoTimes
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- Apr 13, 2010
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We faced Chase Anderson 3 times last year and hit 2 Hrs in all 3 games. Offense needs to carry us this series.
cheesedanish87
Registered User
Marte is 13 for 27 against Anderson.
Hopefully that continues tonight which would give Bell some at bats with runners on.
Yelich is 4 for 9 off Musgrove.
Hopefully that continues tonight which would give Bell some at bats with runners on.
Yelich is 4 for 9 off Musgrove.
JimmyTwoTimes
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- Apr 13, 2010
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And Polanco has 5 HRs against him.
Time for Musgrove to pitch a great game and get us back over .500. Its up to him now with Lyles getting banged up and Archer continuing to struggle.
Need Musgrove to take that next step in his career
DJ Spinoza
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JimmyTwoTimes
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ImporterExporter
"You're a boring old man"
Yes, because the 8 hitter this year has been doing f***ing wonders...
I really think Hurdle is one of those guys (think Grady from Moneyball...if you don't know what I mean, youtube it) who believes baseball is won and lost on old school gut feelings and "traditional" evaluations. Damn advanced stats and actually using numbers to your advantage!
Look, it's easy to sit here and MMQB stuff and pretend we all wouldn't be in over our heads managing a big league roster for even a week, but Hurdle absolutely brings the heat on himself.
And sending down Reynolds is pure bullshit.
I'd say that to Huntington's face. Wouldn't yell or scream, just calmly tell him he's a coward and thinking about money over actually fielding the best team. And if I'm Reynolds, I'm pissed knowing that I did everything and then some and still couldn't stick with the big boys. All because MONEY SAVINGS!!!!!
Scandale du Jour
JordanStaal#1Fan
JimmyTwoTimes
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With 2 outs as usual
If Musgrove cant be our #1 for the time being we are in trouble.
DJ Spinoza
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Musgrove can't miss a bat to save his life. Very root-for-able guy, but he's mid-rotation material.
Scandale du Jour
JordanStaal#1Fan
DJ Spinoza
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