OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Down The Drain

[ImporterExporter]

So he studied under Searage?

Um, no.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

For what it's worth, I don't think much, Rosenthal suggests in his newest Athletic piece that the Mets might still have interest in Marte, but also that Cherington may really take his time in making any significant move. I don't mind that, even as I am clamoring for some action. Get the pitching coach worked out, maybe nail down a Castro signing, and see what other opportunities are there. There's no huge urgency with anyone.

Speaking of opportunities, though: Report: Yankees "Actively" Trying To Trade J.A. Happ

This would be a great way to acquire some easy talent along with a stopgap rotation piece. Happ's vesting 2021 option is going to make him almost untradable, you would think, and the Yankees have to be desperate to land Cole. It might be wildly utopian, but I'd even see what kind of return they'd need to include Andujar as the key sweetener for taking Happ's contract. Maybe Kela and another cheap reliever start to tip that balance, or in something less ambitious, you try for a couple minor league arms.

I still don't place a lot of faith in the commitment to turn the ship around, so something like that where a short-term financial burden is absorbed in order to add talent would go a long way. If useful players are dealt, the payroll will go down even more from its absurdly low level, which while it's not intrinsically bad, I will be satisfied with nothing less than an explicit and detailed commitment to spend, with admission that it wasn't done last time. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to be skeptical of that.

 

[ImporterExporter]

For what it's worth, I don't think much, Rosenthal suggests in his newest Athletic piece that the Mets might still have interest in Marte, but also that Cherington may really take his time in making any significant move. I don't mind that, even as I am clamoring for some action. Get the pitching coach worked out, maybe nail down a Castro signing, and see what other opportunities are there. There's no huge urgency with anyone.

Speaking of opportunities, though: Report: Yankees "Actively" Trying To Trade J.A. Happ

This would be a great way to acquire some easy talent along with a stopgap rotation piece. Happ's vesting 2021 option is going to make him almost untradable, you would think, and the Yankees have to be desperate to land Cole. It might be wildly utopian, but I'd even see what kind of return they'd need to include Andujar as the key sweetener for taking Happ's contract. Maybe Kela and another cheap reliever start to tip that balance, or in something less ambitious, you try for a couple minor league arms.

I still don't place a lot of faith in the commitment to turn the ship around, so something like that where a short-term financial burden is absorbed in order to add talent would go a long way. If useful players are dealt, the payroll will go down even more from its absurdly low level, which while it's not intrinsically bad, I will be satisfied with nothing less than an explicit and detailed commitment to spend, with admission that it wasn't done last time. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to be skeptical of that.

Josh Bell and Marte to NY for Garcia, Andujar, and a good OF prospect?

Boom.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

If they were interested, I'd see if they were desperate enough to unburden themselves from Happ with Garcia and Andujar for just Bell.

In a simpler deal, though, Happ's salary isn't really a lot to absorb. It'd take something useful going back to pull decent pieces, but to me it's very obviously a way for a team with minimal payroll requirements the next few years to just pay some money to get more talent. It hypothetically even pays for itself if Marte is dealt and then Archer or even Happ is dealt again at the deadline next year. What makes him a hard sell for a lot of teams is that he has the vesting 2021 option.

Still, it's not like Happ is garbage, just potentially overpaid. Boras is at least trying to leverage the fact that Cole will sign this week, and I think the Yankees are desperate enough that they won't let not moving Happ prevent them from stepping in, but it's going to be a showdown with the Angels, who I think will spend through the roof to get him. There's not really a plausible plan B.

It's the perfect storm for a GM to waltz in and pluck some talent. It would be a pretty good overture for the fans that Nutting isn't just willing to eat 17M in dead money on management, but rather to spend just a small amount to increase talent now.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Josh Bell and Marte to NY for Garcia, Andujar, and a good OF prospect?

Boom.

As a foundation, not bad. But give me Jordan Montgomery too.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I wouldn't be surprised to see that the Pirates make smaller moves now (Frazier, Kela, ect) and wait for the bigger pieces once free agency clears up some questions. I think a lot of the top teams right now are focused on guys like Cole and Rendon, and once they miss out on those guys, they'll shift their attention to the trade market to make improvements.

The Dodgers are a great team to look at, because they're apparently just looking to acquire "elite players" regardless of position. If they miss out on Cole (which I'm expecting, I don't see Friedman going 9 years on Cole) and Rendon (I have similar doubts here), I could totally see them being desperate to trade for someone like Marte, even if he's not a huge need.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah I think that's a good guess. I want to see action for sure, but my expectations for the week are more that we will sign Castro, and even that I don't think has a huge chance of happening.

Cherington's challenge is simultaneously deciding on how to execute his plan (which requires familiarizing himself and assessing our roster and system) while looking for places of leverage in any trade deals. I'm pretty confident that a market for Marte will emerge, maybe even this week, and that he'll eventually be traded this offseason, but everything feels up for grabs. He's not in the most enviable position: a full-blown rebuild isn't easy to pull off, especially when the talent in the system is pretty top heavy compared to the low minors.

 

[cookthebooks]

i think shelton being a younger guy is going to really help with team cohesion, also not having a pedophile in the clubhouse

 

[ImporterExporter]

You have to believe Tucker will be given a shot to start with the big club. Same with Hayes. Both guys now have extensive AAA experience. w/ Tucker getting quite a bit of time with the big club already.

Defensively it makes sense because Hayes is a perennial gold glove caliber field and Tucker is very good himself, although maybe not quite to that level. I'd move Newman over to 2nd after you trade Frazier.

I'd move Bell and give Will Craig a shot to win the 1B job. Worst case you can sign a cheap stop gap. At least somebody who isn't a putrid defensive player (Bell).

Seriously though Hayes, Tucker and Newman would make for one of the best defensive trio's in the big leagues. Jury is out on Tucker and Hayes as big league hitters but at least we know they can impact the game big time defensively early.

Obviously you need a stop gap at C to pair with Stallings.

The only OF I'd guarantee a spot to is Reynolds, for obvious reasons. If you get a solid offer for Marte you move him.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Arizona said to be sniffing around Marte...

Bring me Daulton Varsho and Alek Thomas!

 

[Empoleon8771]

I'd definitely go after Varsho if we're talking Arizona, but I'd want a younger OFer on top of Varsho. I don't think he's super valuable, but someone like Locastro or Rojas could be another piece worth throwing on top of Varasho and maybe another prospect.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Arizona could be a good match, and Heyman notes that we're meeting with Marte and (in breaking news) have the goal of a young, controllable catcher.

Honestly, the idea of moving Marte for a catcher seems fraught with problems. Catcher is and remains basically the worst position in MLB for a reason. Varsho certainly has the right kind of upside, and I guess I'd obviously include Ruiz in this as well, but I think I'd rather throw a couple pitching prospects at the wall in any Marte deal.

We can just sign Castro for a couple of years and then continue working on catching. The position is so fickle that I just think it's a mistake to focus on it. I'd just as soon sign a stopgap and then start taking a college catcher or two earlier in the draft and see if you can develop them. Stallings is a decent enough tandem partner, and with Castro can easily hold the fort for two seasons.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

In terms of planning for next year's roster, I'm still in a wait and see mode. I'd guess Hayes will be kept in AAA until super two passes unless he just obliterates spring training, but the new front office could have a different approach to things (though it would be out of the norm of all offices if they didn't want to manipulate service time, especially for a player not banging down the door).

Tucker should definitely be given a look, which is why a Frazier deal makes sense, and why I hope we get some traction on Moran as a bench player as well. I don't want to see a scenario where Gonzalez is a starter, but he's competent enough to play some, and Osuna is there as well. I think Moran is the smarter player to deal first, since it opens up a spot and Frazier can always revert to a utility role or move regularly to LF if Marte is traded and Reynolds plays CF (though that would be an atrocious defense... yikes).

At the end of the day, the prospects most of us want to break in are still going to have to force the issue. But Frazier is a great sell high candidate, especially with his defense ranking well last year, and Moran should be somewhat appealing for teams looking for a bit of a hit tool and pop from the left side. There was interest at the deadline, and in the right deal, both are the kind of players I'd be fine including to target the exact prospects we want to kickstart the rebuild.

 

[ChaosAgent]

In terms of planning for next year's roster, I'm still in a wait and see mode. I'd guess Hayes will be kept in AAA until super two passes unless he just obliterates spring training, but the new front office could have a different approach to things (though it would be out of the norm of all offices if they didn't want to manipulate service time, especially for a player not banging down the door).

Tucker should definitely be given a look, which is why a Frazier deal makes sense, and why I hope we get some traction on Moran as a bench player as well. I don't want to see a scenario where Gonzalez is a starter, but he's competent enough to play some, and Osuna is there as well. I think Moran is the smarter player to deal first, since it opens up a spot and Frazier can always revert to a utility role or move regularly to LF if Marte is traded and Reynolds plays CF (though that would be an atrocious defense... yikes).

At the end of the day, the prospects most of us want to break in are still going to have to force the issue. But Frazier is a great sell high candidate, especially with his defense ranking well last year, and Moran should be somewhat appealing for teams looking for a bit of a hit tool and pop from the left side. There was interest at the deadline, and in the right deal, both are the kind of players I'd be fine including to target the exact prospects we want to kickstart the rebuild.

I think Moran has basically no value, though I do like his ability to pinch-hit. Frazier is an ML average starter or slightly-above average who is cost-controlled. I'd move both but Frazier's value >>>> Moran.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yes, I think so too. Teams value Frazier's flexibility and his defense certainly looks like it grades very well at that position. Especially if you assume the hitting will come back some, he has decent value.

Moving Moran would be more about simply clearing roster space for younger players. He has some value I think in the right situation, but he's a pretty one dimensional player and so I wouldn't expect much interesting. He would have been the kind of guy to flip for something like an excess catcher in a system or for a team that already has their situation worked out, in order to see what happens. Maybe even something like the Narvaez trade, though I would imagine that teams would rather have a collection of much younger guys, even if they have little chance of making it. As brutal as it is to say, players like Moran are reasonable easy to acquire.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I wouldn't have expected Frazier to be an impact piece in a trade if you would have asked me a week ago, but the fact that there are apparently a bunch of teams interested in him makes me think that he'll actually bring back a good return.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I wouldn't have expected Frazier to be an impact piece in a trade if you would have asked me a week ago, but the fact that there are apparently a bunch of teams interested in him makes me think that he'll actually bring back a good return.

They dig the tiny arms.

Throwing it back to March-April convos with that comment.

 

[pistolpete11]

I wouldn't have expected Frazier to be an impact piece in a trade if you would have asked me a week ago, but the fact that there are apparently a bunch of teams interested in him makes me think that he'll actually bring back a good return.

Makes sense. Honda Civics are more popular than Mustang GT's.

Marte is still the more impactful player, but given their ages, contract status, and likely price to acquire, it makes sense why more teams would be interested in Frazier.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Makes sense. Honda Civics are more popular than Mustang GT's.

Marte is still the more impactful player, but given their ages, contract status, and likely price to acquire, it makes sense why more teams would be interested in Frazier.

I don't think Frazier would be super cheap to acquire, but I'm going to try to dig for some recent examples of players like Frazier who have been traded in recent years to get an idea of what kind of return he could be bringing.

 

[pistolpete11]

I don't think Frazier would be super cheap to acquire, but I'm going to try to dig for some recent examples of players like Frazier who have been traded in recent years to get an idea of what kind of return he could be bringing.

Compared to Marte?

 

[Empoleon8771]

Compared to Marte?

You're right when it compares to Marte, I'm just not sure what kind of value Frazier has in the first place. Marte's value is more, but I don't know if it's a lot more or just more.

 

[Winger for Hire]

With the attention AF is getting, they have to trade him or risk going down another JHay road.

I'm not trying to put down AF at all, but I can see a player like him end up exactly like JHay did. One season the bottom just falls out and there's not a strong tool to lean on and he never quite builds back up to where he was.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I think we should sell sell sell on Frazier, though with three years of control, I'd still hold out for something useful. I don't think he's in danger of totally nosediving as soon as next year, and in fact I think you can make the case he will improve a little bit, so for me it's just a matter of whether Cherington can work that leverage to get something useful. In Frazier's case I'd probably identify that as either some interesting, really young prospects to stock that part of the system, or perhaps some combination of pitching and catching prospects closer to the majors.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I think we should sell sell sell on Frazier, though with three years of control, I'd still hold out for something useful. I don't think he's in danger of totally nosediving as soon as next year, and in fact I think you can make the case he will improve a little bit, so for me it's just a matter of whether Cherington can work that leverage to get something useful. In Frazier's case I'd probably identify that as either some interesting, really young prospects to stock that part of the system, or perhaps some combination of pitching and catching prospects closer to the majors.

I wouldn't necessarily sell high on Frazier as I think he could get better. WFH just doesn't like Frazier so he's dying to sell high =).

Part of a White Sox larger deal may make sense if we could get them to include Madrigal. Marte, Kela and Frazier for Madrigal, Cease and Dunning would be nice. But as @DJ Spinoza knows I'm a little Sox-fixated as a trading partner.

One guy I wouldn't sell on is Musgrove. He's a huge breakout candidate this year and could be worth way more at the deadline. Teams are trying to pre-empt that by splitting the difference on his "current value" and what they think he'll be worth if he's carrying a 3.3 ERA into the deadline, so obviously we'd be enticed. Having said that, the team isn't planning to trade Musgrove. I have no inside information on that, simply that the team had Musgrove show the new manager Shelton around - including going with him to the Pens game last week. When the jumbotron showed Shelton, Musgrove was right next to him. They are keeping him unless bowled over.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Quite the contrary, I did write this about Fraizer earlier this season--

As underwhelming as Frazier has been this year, I wouldn't be quick to move him. He's a cost controlled, versatile player who is more valuable on your roster than what you'd get back in trade for him. He's cost controlled until 2023, I think, and won't be getting giant arb raises.

I think he's right in the JHay mold where he's at his best moving around the diamond as a SuperU getting ~4 starts a week and having to continually "earn" his role, not as an entrenched starter and top of the lineup fixture. Kind of a bargain bin Zobrist.

Frazier just strikes me as a guy you ride as a hot hand, but normally you look to find him favorable matchups and limit his ABs to get the most out of him.

I'm not sure how much better he can get though. I don't think there's much untapped power. Plate discipline is about where'd you'd want from a guy like him. He can already move around the diamond and can put bat on ball pretty well. Best thing I could see him improving at would be refining his base-running and maybe adding a step or two by working with a speed and quickness guru, and I don't think that would spike his value.

Don't mistake my want to cash in on him for wanting to move him for any old offer. If the teams that are asking on him are looking for a guy they can get cheap because he doesn't have the sexy numbers, you don't move him. But if there are legit offers on the table that can net you a pair of players above A-ball with substantially higher ceilings or someone offers a similarly cost controller starter and sweeteners, I'm certainly going to push for that.

I think his ceiling is probably a 3 WAR player and if someone wants to pay a 3 WAR player price, I pull the trigger.