OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Down The Drain

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, more and more, I think I'd want to get Garcia from the Yanks in a Marte deal. The market doesn't look amazing for Marte at the moment, but there are still a number of teams who would find him appealing. The defensive metrics raise bad flags for us, but honestly I still have some trust that teams will rely on an eye test which to me still says Marte is not just fine in CF but quite good. The "pessimistic" view on him would be that you might get one year of pretty good CF production out of him but then his value dips if he moves into a corner, and even if that's the case, he's still a unique kind of player who has a rare skillset and a good contract. I'm worried about the return and think if it is really just a mediocre one, then play out 2020 and see if somebody's CF gets hurt or underperforms and then fleece them at the deadline.

I think I'd take Frazier and Andujar in a deal, but I'd much rather see what happens with Cole and whether Garcia becomes available. His stock is rising, but he's still in the surplus range that Marte can demand unless you are super high on his rise and even then there are durability questions. I would be surprised if he were actually attainable but he's the kind of prospect you could use to augment your MLB roster if you are addressing needs in free agency.

As for catcher, 1) I'm 100% confident that Heyman's post is just generic speculation without any sourcing, and 2) a catching prospect would be nice, Castro should be adequate and might be setting himself up for a solid payday if he's willing to take the job. I'd be ok taking Collins as a third piece or in a minor deal. Marte could still work in a swap with them, but I sort of assume that Cease would be off limits... I dunno, there's some potential there and Archer could make sense as a buy low option for them, but I also think Archer really shouldn't be dealt yet. His value can only go back up and while it makes sense to acquire as much as possible if we're going to start making moves, I'd still be conservative and play it out with a new pitching coach. His stock could be pretty volatile – if he recaptures his game, then he's easily capable of being the biggest deadline piece available, and he's somebody who at that point would come with a very good contract and (hypothetically) big playoff impact.

With the White Sox I'd be curious if they'd be willing to move Kopech. There's risk in that move for sure, but there is a Cherington connection and if the other offers aren't huge ones, then maybe risking on a boom/bust pitcher is the way to go.

 

[ChaosAgent]

As for catcher, 1) I'm 100% confident that Heyman's post is just generic speculation without any sourcing, and 2) a catching prospect would be nice, Castro should be adequate and might be setting himself up for a solid payday if he's willing to take the job. I'd be ok taking Collins as a third piece or in a minor deal. Marte could still work in a swap with them, but I sort of assume that Cease would be off limits... I dunno, there's some potential there and Archer could make sense as a buy low option for them, but I also think Archer really shouldn't be dealt yet. His value can only go back up and while it makes sense to acquire as much as possible if we're going to start making moves, I'd still be conservative and play it out with a new pitching coach. His stock could be pretty volatile – if he recaptures his game, then he's easily capable of being the biggest deadline piece available, and he's somebody who at that point would come with a very good contract and (hypothetically) big playoff impact.

With the White Sox I'd be curious if they'd be willing to move Kopech. There's risk in that move for sure, but there is a Cherington connection and if the other offers aren't huge ones, then maybe risking on a boom/bust pitcher is the way to go.

• I think catcher for the next winning Pirates team can come from outside the organization.
• Collins' bat can play at 1B. He's a better 1B prospect than Craig and probably Mason Martin as well.
• I think Kopech's value > Cease. But also the Kopech risk is > Cease as well. I'm also very enamored with Dunning, who seems like to be a Trevor Williams type with plus stuff.
• Fair point on Archer. With the number of high-potential starters non-tendered (i.e. Gausman, T. Walker etc.) I can't imagine Archer has any real value right now. But he could at the deadline if he bounces back.
• I suppose this underscores that the pitching coach is an absolutely crucial hire. When the Pirates contend again, pitching that outstrips its projection is going to have to be part of the equation.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I don't disagree on any of the points there, and I do think that the White Sox might be a good match for a bigger trade. What gives me pause is that they seem to have set themselves up pretty well for their system to continue complimenting the free agency investments they've made. Certainly they should be looking for ways to widen their opening window (doubly so in that god awful division), so a deal for Marte could make sense, and they could probably use Kela, etc., but I suspect they might be quite stingy with who they'd give up.

I guess to try to stay as succinct as possible, my hopes right now are more along a wait and see approach which also keeps the tradable pieces we have separate, for the most part. In the right deal I'd include Kela, but a pretty reasonable argument can be made that any of the tradable pieces could be more valuable at the deadline, so I'd just as soon see what shakes out for all of them and then see.

If the White Sox were willing to do Kopech + Collins for Marte, that might be tempting. The Pham trade sets a market of sorts, provided there are enough teams which might be gunning for Marte. I think there will be, even if we assume the Padres are now definitely out on him. A solid roster player and a top-100 prospect would be a decent start to either a retool or rebuild, so long as it's the right combination. Perhaps in prospect-only deals, we'd be looking more at a top-100 guy, another fringe-y top-100 guy, and a third lotto ticket piece.

 

[ImporterExporter]

I don't see Marte bringing back anything close to what is being thrown around here.

 

[cookthebooks]

don kelly the new bench coach. better than forcing a manager or gm wiht local ties i guess. hopefully he isnt too much of a cheater from his time in houston

 

[dogthateats]

 

[DJ Spinoza]

The Kelly hire seems good, he's right in line with Shelton in terms of being unanimously regarded as likable + integrating analytics. It's nice to have the bench coach handled before the winter meetings, and to confirm that Eckstein is staying. I'm hoping we'll get news sooner rather than later about a pitching coach, but it's a crucial hire and there are other, potentially equally pressing tasks.

That said, the moves have been happening at a surprising rate compared to previous years. Part of me wonders if Cole may hold things up for a while, but I also think that it may have no bearing on the teams interested in Marte.

I am not expecting an enormous haul for Marte but the value seems pretty clear and Marte has a pretty clear surplus, even if you take the pessimist view on his defense (which, to be frank, I totally do not get given the eye test). The dicey thing might be more along the lines of offers which only have prospects. Teams are increasingly unwilling to budge at all on certain guys at the top of their system, so some kind of deal that is directly analogous to the Pham deal might be the best value. I don't love Renfroe but he and a top-100 prospect would have been a solid package.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Some more Marte proposals on the Sunday before the Winter Meetings, courtesy of ESPN: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id...hite-sox-more-winter-meetings-trades-want-see

To Arizona for RHP Levi Kelly, RHP Taylor Widener, and RHP Matt Peacock

To Tampa Bay for LHP Anthony Banda and... RHP Shane Baz

I won't comment much on either of them, other than to point out the obvious that trading for Baz would be one more twist of the knife... but in terms of rebuilding and needing pitching, well...

Ok, a brief comment: the TBR deal has ceiling and intrigue, so it wouldn't be an automatic no from me, and the Arizona deal also has these. Kelly is someone I don't have a read on; a lot of people thought he was ticketed for the bullpen and he had a great first year, Widener has some potential, and Peacock seems like a good depth/backend guy. You could do worse, as both of these teams have decent systems in place, and an influx of 2-3 pitchers is always a good way to begin any rebuild/re-tool.

I do think there will be suitors for Marte, but some kind of limit to the bidding around what Pham got. There's a good bit of guesswork for a number of teams that could use him – such as these two, the Cubs, Reds, and White Sox – but I think added together, and considering my favored team of the Braves, there will be at least 2-3 bidders starting this week.

We'll see. I think the Braves are well-positioned to make some trades, and they seem like they won't want to invest any more big money into their roster this offseason, unless Anthropoulos pulls out a shocker and goes after Rendon (it wouldn't shock me, but it hasn't been the Braves MO). The Braves rotation right now includes Folty, Soroka, Hamels, Fried, and then a number of young options on top of Newcomb, who will get an opportunity to compete for the job. That allows them the ability to be patient with their top pitching prospects like Anderson and Wright, but the list of young options goes beyond them, and at some point there isn't room and you don't want too many young pitchers buried in the bullpen.

Maybe Wright is too much of a reach, but the riskier Touissant is more available, along with guys like Wilson and Muller. The Braves have a bevy of pitching, with a riser like Tarnok only in single-A and probably starting to rocket up the lists next year. None of this is bad for the Braves, and they could use this arsenal at the deadline or simply as depth, but I think the best play for pitching is here, and it would make sense for them to consolidate some of these options in going after Marte.

For the 300th time I want Wright, but if I were Cherington and I saw a combination of something like Toussaint, Muller, and maybe a wildcard like Huascar Ynoa who they have to have on the 40-man right now, then I would probably be satisfied. I'm hoping that the bidding, combined with the Braves depth/consolidation question, will be enough to get Wright on the table. Maybe with a decent, cheap depth addition like Moran, a package of Wright + Toussaint/Wilson + low-A piece becomes feasible. Helps the Braves out now without a lot of risk, as they maintain Soroka-Anderson-Fried as their core pitching going forward, along with Pache and Waters as eventual OFs to pair with Acuña Jr. If that's not happening then I'd push for Waters' inclusion in any package, but at the end of the day, I think prospects like Waters and Wright are at the very top of what Cherington will be able to command for Marte. We need a bidding war.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Idk, maybe I'm just underrating those prospects, but both of those deals seem horribly bad for the Pirates. Like that's not just "Marte for spare parts", that's Marte for 2 or 3 crappy pitching prospects or guys who are in low levels right now.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

It's sort of in the nature of the game that trading for pitching prospects is fraught with risk, even for guys who are more well regarded like Wright. In this case I think there are some questions about the Arizona pitching prospects, but it would be plausible to ballpark two of them around 45FV, and the Tampa deal depends heavily on how you value Banda. Baz is a good bet to keep rising which is why his inclusion in what I'm now going to refer to as Coonelly's trade is like the absurd cherry on top.

I don't think either are amazing, but in all likelihood if we move Marte for pitching, there will be some riskier guys involved. That's one reason I like Atlanta so much. Guys like Toussaint and Wilson have at least shown something against MLB hitters already, whereas Wright is in the upper minors, etc.

If Marte is traded for single-A guys, then that will be a decent indication that a much longer rebuild is on its way, and in one way, evaluating the return will probably have to wait another year or two for even an initial reaction, due to the nature of most pitching prospects.

I'm still operating with the assumption that there's more like a re-tool on the horizon, and that Cherington shouldn't necessarily rush into any moves at all, but rather sort of approach the next steps almost along the lines of something analogous to the cliche draft "BPA" strategy. Make the best deals for the future as they emerge; the years of control on most of the players who could be traded allow him to be patient, and even Kela probably has a lot more value if he's a good closer on a mediocre-to-bad team for a few months than as a speculative acquisition in the winter.

I'm really looking forward to the Winter Meetings but we might see almost no activity, or we might just sign an ok confirmation that Castro is signing a 1-2 year deal.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Meetings are off to a roaring start... I guess they are on west coast time.

 

[cookthebooks]

savages in that media room

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Well, Strasburg just signed, and Cole is probably gonna get 300M. I hope he signs with the Angels.

 

[TimmyD]

7 years $245 million for Strasburg

 

[Empoleon8771]

Mother of god that's a stupid amount of money for a pitcher, especially one who has 1 year below a 3.00 ERA in the last 8 years. Like he's good, but jesus.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Mother of god that's a stupid amount of money for a pitcher, especially one who has 1 year below a 3.00 ERA in the last 8 years. Like he's good, but jesus.

I've often thought of Rizzo as an idiot in the past, but he looks crazy like a fox now. The JR of baseball?

 

[DJ Spinoza]

The thing that would worry me with Strasburg is his injury history. Would have made sense to just pay Rendon, but they do lack pitching prospects.

One thing I'm sure we can all revel in is that Scherzer, Strasburg, and Corbin alone will almost with 100% certainty be making more money than the entire roster next year, and I would also imagine, to throw a little extra twist on the knife, that the difference between their collective salaries and our starting payroll is more money that we'll spend this winter between arbitrations and a few minor deals.

 

[Goalie_Bob]

Who cares when there isn’t a salary cap?

 

[DJ Spinoza]

With a full-blown rebuild, this would be a good move to get out of the way. Sell high on him as a useful piece and open up more time for Tucker to play right away. I'd also like to see Moran moved this winter if we're going this route.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Who cares when there isn’t a salary cap?

because even baseball teams dont have money growing on trees

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Update: all the players might be available and Ben Cherington is in fact a human person.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I'd 100% trade Frazier right now if I was getting good offers for him. Move Newman to 2nd have Tucker as you starting SS.

 

[Winger for Hire]

 

[Empoleon8771]

This makes me happy, they'll probably get a veteran stopgap like Castro and also try to acquire a catcher of the future by trading someone like Marte or Frazier.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Musgrove is like the hype man for the team or something




The Meccage news is interesting. I want somebody new brought in, but also who knows what he would change if he were totally in charge. We need someone who is analytically-inclined and who will try to anticipate trends in the league and help players develop their best abilities.