Finally someone took a break from churning out puff pieces about the cool new executives and did a deep dive into total spending under Nutting's ownership, and it's what you would think it would be – we're dead last – with a bunch of little knife twists and nuggets that are also bad. Two of note:
• The largest deal the Pirates have given to an external free agent — Liriano (who had draft-pick compensation tied to him) and Nova were both re-signed once they reached free agency — was to Russell Martin, who received two years and $17 million.
• The offseason when the Pirates spent the most money in free agency — $62 million — was 2014-15, as they signed Liriano, Kang, A.J. Burnett (one year, $8.5 million), Corey Hart (one year, $2.5 million) and Radhames Liz (one year, $1 million). They won 98 games the following season, their highest win total since 1991 and third-highest in franchise history.
An honest look at the Pirates' frugal free-agent history...
Something does have to give with this trend, and relatively soon. It is accurate to say that no team can really build primarily through free agency any more (I'm not really sure any team can be described as doing that since the early 00s), especially the Pirates, but some of the problems in the Huntington years can probably be contributed to an unwillingness to even spend the going market rate for supplementary production. I always thought that some of that was due to Huntington's own MO, and if that's right, it fit like a glove with Nutting.
But going forward, if such extreme frugality remains the norm, Cherington will just have to figure out different ways to walk on a razor thin wire towards competitiveness, and if he gets us there (to Huntington's credit, we are not horrendously far away, in the sense of having a barren system and horrid roster, as we did when he took over), he will need a lot of luck. I don't want to relitigate things, but Huntington ended up having some very bad luck in a lot of the backstory to his missteps.
This necessity works in at least two ways, IMO. First, at the absolute barest minimum, if Cherington carries out a nearly total rebuild and the sights are placed on about 2023 for a window of contention, then when his drafted, traded for, and developed young core hits, he needs the license to spend liberally in free agency to fill need and depth. That doesn't necessarily mean we need to nab one of the top 2-3 available players that winter, but we might need to "overpay" for an average starting pitcher, reliever, infielder, fourth outfielder, etc. etc., rather than the better value deal of a player analogous to the John Jaso signing (hell, he should do both, 2 years, 8 million is not a real risk if you are actually trying to supplement a core and win).
Second and even more germane to whatever is about to happen, re-tool, rebuild, bit of both, etc., more money needs to be invested into the payroll right now. It's good that Nutting ate money to replace execs and didn't let money stand in the way of hiring new ones. It's nothing to congratulate him for, but it's good nonetheless. Still, there is the challenge of fielding a team and starting to build for the future. Ways that money needs to be spent now include:
1) Getting a catcher, which won't really cost much at all.
2) Getting at least one SP, which also likely won't cost much, maybe not even a guarantee in the case of Wacha or Smyly, but here why not spend a little more and see if you get results from Walker?
3) Absorbing a bad contract in order to buy prospects.
4) Taking a chance on one of the Japanese or Korean stars who are FAs or posted, which teams in more secure positions are probably less willing to do.
The list could probably go on. If at least some of these things happen, I'll be more appeased. I am cautiously optimistic with the decisions that have been made, and more than anything just interested to see Cherington make some baseball moves. I remain overall more cynical about the team than I was before Huntington was fired.
#3 on that list is the one I most irrationally have my hopes set on. If we're going the rebuild route and punting on 2020 and to some extent 2021, then taking a bad contract is a very simple way to pay some money to get more talent that is "affordable" and "value-laden" for the window of competition we're aiming at. It's easy to make these bold proclamations on a message board, but IMO this applies especially to Nutting but also to Cherington.
With Cole, Strasburg, and Rendon all unsigned and likely in more demand than the free agents from last year, I think there is a big opportunity here to collect some nice talent just by fielding one or two moderately overpriced veterans. The Padres are prospect rich and want to win right now. Your not getting Gore outside of some bonkers scenario involving Hosmer, but take Wil Myers' contract and get a few prospects with it or hell, even take Myers, a prospect, and Renfroe, and have the potential for some solid talent injected into the roster.
It doesn't have to be exactly that scenario, but if these kinds of things don't start happening, I'll remained steeled in my Nutting cynicism and still apprehensive about Cherington's plan.