OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Down The Drain

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Empoleon8771

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Shelton is being introduced as the manager today. Nothing too groundbreaking here, he's just giving standard answers. Saying he wants to change the culture to be one based on "accountability and fun". He apparently comes off as a standard, energetic guy, so that's nice.

I chuckled at this:



MLB players act the same way for unknown phone calls as I do :laugh:

Edit: Shelton also said that the Pirates have a "good group of arms", so I'm wondering if they're not planning on adding any pitching this year and just trying to recover what they have. Guys like Archer, Williams and Keller do have the upside of being solid or better starters, but you need the right pitching coach to make them click and I'm not sure you'll get all 3 to their potential.



Wait, are they not planning on rebuilding now?
 
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DJ Spinoza

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As frustrating as it is, I wouldn't expect Cherington to say anything at all in detail about his plans. All signs point to at least some kind of re-tool/rebuild beginning with a Marte trade, but no matter what, the best situation he can put himself in for his moves is a shroud of secrecy. There are limits to this because in order to execute whatever plan there is, some actions are going to have to take place at the winter meetings, but I'm expecting a move or a couple of moves first, and then a press conference with Cherington where he is somewhat more candid about the plan.

I think we should still expect the worst on this front, but we shouldn't forget that we were promised more transparency at Cherington's introductory press conference.

My expectation is that Marte will be traded by the end of the winter meetings and we will get some kind of indication about the extent of the rebuild before the end of the month, but that might border more on what I am hoping for than what I expect.

I also wouldn't be shocked if we get a signing of somebody like Castro in the not too distant future, now that Shelton has been introduced. That move really has no bearing on whether we'd acquire a catcher or not, unless perhaps the plan were to acquire Ruiz. But even then, we need somebody dependable to pair with Stallings heading into the season. Really, a Castro signing might be an interesting opening chess move of sorts, because it at least allows for some plausibility that no full-on rebuild is in the cards, giving more leverage if teams are calling on Marte, Kela, and Bell too.

And while I am on board for a re-tool, I think it is worth noting that the Brewers are heavily scaling back, the Cubs have a number of question marks, and the Reds are going to be competitive enough that again we'll see a lot of parity in the division. We are fairly clearly the #5 team right now but with the right set of performances and maybe a rookie surprise, we'll at least be able to hold our own and see. I say this not because that should be the plan (if so, we should have signed Grandal), but because from Cherington's position, he's not in a position where it's absolutely guaranteed that he needs to move anyone right away, outside of perhaps Kela, and even there, we have the possibility of sliding some of Vazquez's money over to him, or waiting on a deal that might be almost as good at the deadline if he has a healthy, productive season.
 

Empoleon8771

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Not crazy about this, but they're replacing the 4 most important positions (manager, GM, pitching coach and bench coach), so I don't terribly mind that they're keeping everyone else.
 

DJ Spinoza

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IMO Eckstein should absolutely stay. For the others, I'm not sure there's a huge difference, and some continuity for the players and the transition is probably a good thing. Given that there's no weirdness with Cherington having a manager foisted on him, etc., they could always decide to just fire some of the assistants later on.


Also:

 

DJ Spinoza

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Finally someone took a break from churning out puff pieces about the cool new executives and did a deep dive into total spending under Nutting's ownership, and it's what you would think it would be – we're dead last – with a bunch of little knife twists and nuggets that are also bad. Two of note:

• The largest deal the Pirates have given to an external free agent — Liriano (who had draft-pick compensation tied to him) and Nova were both re-signed once they reached free agency — was to Russell Martin, who received two years and $17 million.

• The offseason when the Pirates spent the most money in free agency — $62 million — was 2014-15, as they signed Liriano, Kang, A.J. Burnett (one year, $8.5 million), Corey Hart (one year, $2.5 million) and Radhames Liz (one year, $1 million). They won 98 games the following season, their highest win total since 1991 and third-highest in franchise history.

An honest look at the Pirates' frugal free-agent history...

Something does have to give with this trend, and relatively soon. It is accurate to say that no team can really build primarily through free agency any more (I'm not really sure any team can be described as doing that since the early 00s), especially the Pirates, but some of the problems in the Huntington years can probably be contributed to an unwillingness to even spend the going market rate for supplementary production. I always thought that some of that was due to Huntington's own MO, and if that's right, it fit like a glove with Nutting.

But going forward, if such extreme frugality remains the norm, Cherington will just have to figure out different ways to walk on a razor thin wire towards competitiveness, and if he gets us there (to Huntington's credit, we are not horrendously far away, in the sense of having a barren system and horrid roster, as we did when he took over), he will need a lot of luck. I don't want to relitigate things, but Huntington ended up having some very bad luck in a lot of the backstory to his missteps.

This necessity works in at least two ways, IMO. First, at the absolute barest minimum, if Cherington carries out a nearly total rebuild and the sights are placed on about 2023 for a window of contention, then when his drafted, traded for, and developed young core hits, he needs the license to spend liberally in free agency to fill need and depth. That doesn't necessarily mean we need to nab one of the top 2-3 available players that winter, but we might need to "overpay" for an average starting pitcher, reliever, infielder, fourth outfielder, etc. etc., rather than the better value deal of a player analogous to the John Jaso signing (hell, he should do both, 2 years, 8 million is not a real risk if you are actually trying to supplement a core and win).

Second and even more germane to whatever is about to happen, re-tool, rebuild, bit of both, etc., more money needs to be invested into the payroll right now. It's good that Nutting ate money to replace execs and didn't let money stand in the way of hiring new ones. It's nothing to congratulate him for, but it's good nonetheless. Still, there is the challenge of fielding a team and starting to build for the future. Ways that money needs to be spent now include:

1) Getting a catcher, which won't really cost much at all.
2) Getting at least one SP, which also likely won't cost much, maybe not even a guarantee in the case of Wacha or Smyly, but here why not spend a little more and see if you get results from Walker?
3) Absorbing a bad contract in order to buy prospects.
4) Taking a chance on one of the Japanese or Korean stars who are FAs or posted, which teams in more secure positions are probably less willing to do.

The list could probably go on. If at least some of these things happen, I'll be more appeased. I am cautiously optimistic with the decisions that have been made, and more than anything just interested to see Cherington make some baseball moves. I remain overall more cynical about the team than I was before Huntington was fired.

#3 on that list is the one I most irrationally have my hopes set on. If we're going the rebuild route and punting on 2020 and to some extent 2021, then taking a bad contract is a very simple way to pay some money to get more talent that is "affordable" and "value-laden" for the window of competition we're aiming at. It's easy to make these bold proclamations on a message board, but IMO this applies especially to Nutting but also to Cherington.

With Cole, Strasburg, and Rendon all unsigned and likely in more demand than the free agents from last year, I think there is a big opportunity here to collect some nice talent just by fielding one or two moderately overpriced veterans. The Padres are prospect rich and want to win right now. Your not getting Gore outside of some bonkers scenario involving Hosmer, but take Wil Myers' contract and get a few prospects with it or hell, even take Myers, a prospect, and Renfroe, and have the potential for some solid talent injected into the roster.

It doesn't have to be exactly that scenario, but if these kinds of things don't start happening, I'll remained steeled in my Nutting cynicism and still apprehensive about Cherington's plan.
 
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cookthebooks

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IMO Eckstein should absolutely stay. For the others, I'm not sure there's a huge difference, and some continuity for the players and the transition is probably a good thing. Given that there's no weirdness with Cherington having a manager foisted on him, etc., they could always decide to just fire some of the assistants later on.


Also:


based on what shelton did with the twins if he wants eckstein to stay and eckstein wants to work under shelton then i am happy
 
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Empoleon8771

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God dammit I would have paid even more than that for him. He definitely wasn't my primary target, because he's terrible defensively and is a bad pitch framer, but I would have still taken him for that price.
 

DJ Spinoza

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Good move by Stearns. I would have liked the Narvaez speculative move, although I wouldn't be crazy about giving up a reasonably high pick (#71) over more middling prospect depth.

That's the kind of move that's hard to determine right now given the lack of known direction. If we're retooling sooner rather than later, even if that means shipping Marte out, then we need some talent risks. But I think framing is so necessary and while I'm cautiously optimistic about Stallings as an ok 1B/backup, I don't know that I'd say that in a pairing with a very bad framer, especially when we can just sign a good framer without giving up anything.

But for the Brewers, it's a "good" move, even if they should have just ponied up the money to pay Grandal.
 

DJ Spinoza

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Bowden has an Athletic story up with Winter Meeting player moves for all 30 teams. I usually don't like his stuff, and the piece seems much more in the genre of fantasy/fun than genuine prediction, but nevertheless he has us trading both Marte and Bell.

Marte to the Reds for Jonathan India, Jesse Winker, and Tyler Mahle

This is actually fairly interesting, as India is a top-100 prospect, and Winker and Mahle are only a year or so removed from being top-10 organization guys, and maybe fringe top-100 prospects. India's stock has leveled off and he performed poorly in the fall league, but he was the #5 overall pick. I think the general consensus is that people like Winker a decent bit as an above average regular, but health is a question mark. Mahle might not have frontline ceiling, but he's a pretty good cog to snag if you like the other pieces.

Overall? I'm tempted by this idea actually, with the danger being that you might not have any one player really pay off. I don't have a strong view about India and my take would be heavily based on what I thought I'd get out of him. If you think the bat will really play well in the middle of the order, then you can take him, potentially move him over to 2B and really have your infield pretty set, with his offense maybe slightly offsetting Hayes not being a true middle of the order type.

Bell to the Yankees for Andujar, Volt, and RHP Roansy Contreras

I don't know that I'd call this horrible, but I just don't see the upside to getting this collection of players. Andujar is a tempting available player, I'm just not sure I want him headlining a trade for Bell. And then I don't see how Volt fits with the Pirates. Sure, we could try Andujar at 3B, but we already have Hayes, India from the other scenario, and not to mention Osuna, Moran... there's something to be said for competition, and Volt can be a useful player who has a lot of control left, but strange.

Contreras is a pretty interesting name from their system and certainly somebody to keep an eye on. Bell has three full years of control remaining. Yes, there are legitimate concerns about his consistency and his value might go down with a mediocre year. I just don't see the rush to trade him for a mediocre package. If the deal was more like Andujar, Deivi Garcia, and Contreras, then that could be a collection of players to go with, if you were a big believer in Garcia.


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Stepping away from the always-too-specific land of these kinds of proposals, the Mets acquiring Marisnick today makes me pretty worried about Marte's market. There are still possibilities out there, but I don't read this move favorably for maxing out a return for him. That's one reason why I'd be tempted with a potentially underwhelming upside group of prospects like in the Reds deal, who still have lots of room for development. I see Mahle as a pretty safe bet to at least be a competent rotation cog (I love his changeup), India as someone who had a lot of hype and maybe would benefit from a new start, and Winker as something of an injury wildcard but not a bad piece to get.

I'd love a higher upside pitcher for Marte, but somebody like Kyle Wright is probably a little bit too out of reach of his surplus to be viable. I don't know that I'd really like the headliner to be a nineteen year old who might be a frontline guy in 4-5 years.
 

ChaosAgent

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Re: @DJ Spinoza's quoted trades above. I'm a little stir-crazy for the Pirates to do something so take this FWIW.

Marte to Reds for Winker, Mahle and India.

Yes, absolutely in a vacuum though of course I'd want to see what other teams might offer. This is a good package of players. I looked at Mahle and he's had very high HR/9 that would benefit greatly from dejuicing the baseballs. India would be the #5-6 prospect in our system. I'm excited about Swaggerty and India has had similar results from the same draft year.

Winker has always been able to hit and has historically destroyed the Pirates. Seems like he may have issues with the glove...I wonder if he'd be a 1B candidate here if we move Bell? I haven't paid enough attention to him to know if the issue is with sure-handedness or mobility - for instance I'm nearly certain Moran could play 1B as mobility is his only significant problem. But not sure on Winker.

Bell to the Yankees for Andujar, Volt, and RHP Roansy Contreras

A weird one. Andujar is a 1B and so is Voit. I think from an asset perspective this is pretty good but it's a strange fit. Contreras typical upside arm.

I...think I do this. But I'm getting a 3rd AL team on the phone immediately asking if they are interested in Andujar as their DH of the future. Perhaps you could immediately flip Andujar for a high-end ML-ready pitcher unless the scouts really believe in his defensive ability somewhere (1st or 3rd) in the NL.
 

Empoleon8771

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Padres reportedly land Tommy Pham in four-player trade with Rays

Maybe the Padres would still be interested in Marte, but I think this hurts the chances of that as a trade destination. I feel like this deal gives a pretty good idea of what Marte's potential trade value would be, and it seems like the Renfroe and Avilla for Marte proposal from MLB.com was low on Marte's value. Although the Rays also gave up a 2-way AAA player that's their 17th ranked prospect, so maybe it isn't that far off. I think the expectation for a Marte trade would be a younger, cost controlled outfielder and a top-100 prospect at this point.
 

ChaosAgent

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Padres reportedly land Tommy Pham in four-player trade with Rays

Maybe the Padres would still be interested in Marte, but I think this hurts the chances of that as a trade destination. I feel like this deal gives a pretty good idea of what Marte's potential trade value would be, and it seems like the Renfroe and Avilla for Marte proposal from MLB.com was low on Marte's value. Although the Rays also gave up a 2-way AAA player that's their 17th ranked prospect, so maybe it isn't that far off. I think the expectation for a Marte trade would be a younger, cost controlled outfielder and a top-100 prospect at this point.

So the above Reds proposal would seem to fit that bill.
 

Empoleon8771

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Not sure who this all leaves. Maybe the Padres would still want Marte and they'd trade Campusano for him? Would Margot and Campusano for Marte be too much from the Padres?
 
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ChaosAgent

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Not sure who this all leaves. Maybe the Padres would still want Marte and they'd trade Campusano for him? Would Margot and Campusano for Marte be too much from the Padres?


Collins from the Sox would still be appealing...of the team believed in his defense. Not sure the Pirates do. His bat may play at 1st though.

I still like Marte, Kela and Archer for Cease, Dunning and Collins.
 

Empoleon8771

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Collins from the Sox would still be appealing...of the team believed in his defense. Not sure the Pirates do. His bat may play at 1st though.

I still like Marte, Kela and Archer for Cease, Dunning and Collins.

Eh, I'm super iffy on Collins personally. A power hitting catcher who's bad defensively isn't really that attractive in my eyes.
 

Goalie_Bob

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Agreed. Isn't the problem the Pirates have had the past few years is that their catchers stink at framing the ball and thus the overall team pitching is affected by it?

The team has enough offense to compete, I'd take a mendoza line catcher who is a top notch defender and great at calling a game and framing pitches.
 
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ChaosAgent

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Agreed. Isn't the problem the Pirates have had the past few years is that their catchers stink at framing the ball and thus the overall team pitching is affected by it?

The team has enough offense to compete, I'd take a mendoza line catcher who is a top notch defender and great at calling a game and framing pitches.

Then you already have it. It's Stallings.
 

cheesedanish87

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I would def trade Bell for the right return.

We saw NH so often trade players at their lowest value, you have a chance to trade Bell right now when his value might be at its highest that it will ever be.

Bell was red hot at the beginning of last year, pitchers made an adjustment and started pitching him outside and Bell was never really able to adjust to that.

I'd love to get Garcia from the Yanks, maybe if Cole Signs with the Yanks they would be more willing to move Garcia.
 
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ChaosAgent

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I would def trade Bell for the right return.

We saw NH so often trade players at their lowest value, you have a chance to trade Bell right now when his value might be at its highest that it will ever be.

Bell was red hot at the beginning of last year, pitchers made an adjustment and started pitching him outside and Bell was never really able to adjust to that.

I'd love to get Garcia from the Yanks, maybe if Cole Signs with the Yanks they would be more willing to move Garcia.

Agree on both counts. Like DJ, I would love to see them take the Happ contract to get a mega-return out of it.
 
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