OT: Raise the Jolly Rodger: Setting sail on a new season

Status
Not open for further replies.

Empoleon8771

Registered User
Aug 25, 2015
81,452
79,570
Redmond, WA


I'm tentatively fine with selling high on Bednar if you can get a haul for him, but on the other hand, I'm also really god damn tired of this perpetual "rebuild" that seemingly isn't coming any closer to ending.

Trading Bednar (or Keller, which would make me even more mad) just looks like the team waiving the white towel for the next few years. I think they should have been expected to add after the Reynolds and Hayes extension, but selling on Bednar or Keller right now would be a step backwards on that.
 

metalan2

Registered User
May 30, 2008
9,545
3,040
Sucks we lost Santana, but he's 36 on a one year deal. No idea what Severino is, but he was rated the 21st overall prospect in 22?
 

DJ Spinoza

Registered User
Aug 7, 2003
25,349
3,874
Severino was 21st among the 2022 international prospects, but they are sort of hard to rank due to how the system works and just end up kind of on a list in order of how much they signed for, or at least that's my understanding. He's a long-term lotto ticket, big development prospect just like basically any international signing, including the top hyped guys.

What makes the Diamondbacks potentially intriguing is that they have a solid system and a number of guys who are right on the cusp of being MLB contributors but haven't broken through. To just cherry pick a couple of names you can see kicked around on Twitter, both Brandon Pfaadt and Alek Thomas fall into this category. Thomas has struggled offensively but still has some floor due to his defense and Pfaadt has struggled with HRs. But Thomas is 23 and Pfaadt is 24, with the former in his second season and the latter in his first, so it's not like you are talking about guys who are headed towards 26 and still haven't found it yet.

Trouble is, I have a hard time being confident that the Pirates could get these guys to where they need to be. I'm certainly intrigued enough by Pfaadt's arsenal to be open to a deal that he'd headline. Even though a guy like Drew Jones still has plenty of hype, I'd much rather look at ways to inject multiple above average regulars into a 2024 Pirates team.

The cold-hearted assessment is that a reliever can turn into absolute dust at the drop of a hat. Bednar's been elite and other than very occasional wildness, he's shown no signs of that from a performance standpoint, but the point still stands that if you can redirect a RP into regulars at other positions (especially a SP with #2/3 upside like Pfaadt), it's something to seriously consider.

Ultimately, I share the sentiment that year 4 of Cherington's regime is enough for this same old song. Selling the veterans is one thing -- depressing even in a vacuum -- but the clock is ticking.
 

OnMyOwn

Worlds Apart
Sep 7, 2005
18,906
4,563
I mean if you sell Bednar when he has several cheap years of control left, just to get another prospect or 2, wtf was the point in this rebuild? The contending years are supposed to be these next few and he would be here for it.
 

cookthebooks

Registered User
Oct 4, 2017
3,012
1,617
seems hard to believe they contend next year. i would require a guy who would be expected to be in a major league rotation in two years tho to trade bednar
 

Empoleon8771

Registered User
Aug 25, 2015
81,452
79,570
Redmond, WA
I mean if you sell Bednar when he has several cheap years of control left, just to get another prospect or 2, wtf was the point in this rebuild? The contending years are supposed to be these next few and he would be here for it.

Yeah that's the frustrating thing with dealing Bednar. It's worth it for a great return, but if they're just getting prospects, at what point is this rebuild going to end?

Also, why did they sign Reynolds to a $100 million contract if they're also willing to trade young and cost controlled talent?
 
  • Like
Reactions: TNT87

DJ Spinoza

Registered User
Aug 7, 2003
25,349
3,874
I don't think too fine a point needs to be put on it: moving Bednar would be a certain kind of admitting defeat, as would Keller. There are paths to getting talent back that goes directly in the team, and then supplementing it with more talent (which obviously needs to happen either way), but that's putting the cart before the horse.

At the very least, I think it means casting doubt on the 2024 team, with 2025 being far enough off that you don't want to plan around a currently dominant closer. Given the way BC commented on the early success this year, I don't think this is too far off from their internal projection -- try and "improve" (he loves this rhetoric without committing to anything like, I dunno, MLB free agents such as Andrew Chafin who could address some of the major weak points), and be good enough to flirt on the edge of the WC and division races, see what happens, and be geared up for 2025.

In other words, one year behind the Orioles.

We'll see. I will reiterate my lack of confidence in Cherington, and also in Baker and the much-lauded developmental changes that were made (the only thing of significance that supposedly changed, as the amateur scouts are all identical to those under Huntington). The kind of guys you could be talking about, like Pfaadt, Thomas from ARI, Duran, White from TEX, or Cowser, Westburg, Kjerstad from BAL, just to pick some names -- all of these guys would basically immediately step in, other than maybe White or Kjerstad, who are basically right on the cusp of debuting. However, it's always easy to get ahead of yourself when the trade market heats up. The fact remains that Cherington has had multiple years of trade chips and never managed to sniff any of these kinds of players in a return. Bednar is maybe a little bit different (though Hader being available could throw a wrench into the scarcity question), but I am not holding my breath.
 

DJ Spinoza

Registered User
Aug 7, 2003
25,349
3,874
Looks like the Mets got a pretty strong haul for David Robertson, who is on an expiring 10M contract. Two complex kids, but both performing pretty well.

I wonder if both sides end up more amenable to the low minors, really young prospects in deals. It seems hard to get traction on guys who are right around MLB ready, since those players will often be useful to the team immediately, or trending down enough that they wouldn't be as attractive to other teams (though for a rental, this is maybe splitting hairs). I also think it's challenging to compare the low minors guys even with guys in A/AA. The FV number means a lot less on someone like Yordany De Los Santos in our system, to take an example. He could be a year or so from a lot of hype as a top-75 guy, or he could fall back.

In any case, this would bode pretty well for a king's ransom in a Bednar trade.
 

Empoleon8771

Registered User
Aug 25, 2015
81,452
79,570
Redmond, WA
For me to trade Bednar, I'd need a return like Pfaadt, Nelson and Barrosa from Arizona. It's not pie in the sky expectations like getting Lawlar or Jones for Bednar, but it's a damn solid return that immediately adds MLB pitching help along with a viable CF prospect going forward.
 

DJ Spinoza

Registered User
Aug 7, 2003
25,349
3,874
I like Pfaadt quite a bit as the headliner of a package, as I think he steps in immediately and has genuine upside, though there's also part of me that would be immediately skeptical about Arizona giving up on him right now. They still have Gallen for 2 more seasons of arbitration, and there's a world where they extend him long-term, but I would think he was considered a building block for them at the outset of the season.

It's hard to get a read on Arizona minor leaguers because they all play in extreme bandboxes. It's definitely a good system, and I also think it's hard to really say what kind of return Bednar would garner, because he makes you instantly really better in one of the most important ways possible for the playoffs (shortening the game). Hader potentially being out there throws a wrench into things a little bit.

I think it's pretty unlikely that he gets traded, but I do think there's some chance. Maybe 70/30.
 

DJ Spinoza

Registered User
Aug 7, 2003
25,349
3,874
I will be glad to be rid of Hedges but would also be remiss to not offer the hot take that maybe we should just keep him to work with Endy and Davis for the final two months. As long as Endy is the every day catcher, the only issue is that we're not even giving Davis a little bit of run, but so much of the catching game is ongoing preparation that later shows up in games. Hedges is effectively a coach, and maybe the most ideal situation is that he's on the injured list and can be around, but I think the upshot of that experience (especially for Endy) probably outweighs some marginal return.

It's all the same old, same old with this situation. The only thing that might move the needle is a genuine haul for Bednar, which is why part of me is tuned in to see if we can make that happen or not. Most of the rest is shuffling the deck chairs, unless we can somehow turn Hill into someone like Oviedo.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ehill613

DJ Spinoza

Registered User
Aug 7, 2003
25,349
3,874


This looks like a really nice return for the White Sox. Makes me have my hopes up slightly for a Hill return and even more intrigued by the possibility of getting immediately ready returns at areas of need for Bednar.
 

sovietsanta87

Registered User
Jan 3, 2013
2,702
1,540
Pittsburgh, PA


This looks like a really nice return for the White Sox. Makes me have my hopes up slightly for a Hill return and even more intrigued by the possibility of getting immediately ready returns at areas of need for Bednar.

Teams usually take advantage of us in trades because they know they can. I don’t have any evidence or data to prove that. I just wanted to say it
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad