OT: Raise the Jolly Rodger: Setting sail on a new season

[Zirakzigil]

New season, new thread time!
​

I was and in part still want to be fairly optimistic about the possibility of a Reynolds extension, but right now I just can't muster it. We know that the FO doesn't usually leak, so I think this kind of halfway talk is all we will get, but I just get the sense that Reynolds moving to LF full time doesn't really bode well.

It shouldn't be too difficult to reach a real middle ground if there's really will there, but I just can't muster the optimism. I guess the flip side might be that if we were totally resigned to trading him, it would make more sense to see if he can have 2-3 months of a better defensive showing in CF (especially over Suwinski, who I refuse to believe is a positive defender there even independently of this Reynolds question).

At the end of the day, I still hope for some potential patience if nothing gets done. There shouldn't be a rush to move him if we can't get an extension now, but obviously the relationship might be shot if we're trying to re-negotiating him and still basically not moving at all.

I am happy to admit I was WRONG this off season. I wanted Dollander and thought Crews overrated given other prospects had similar years in 2022.

How can this kid not be a sprint to the podium, over-slot deal on draft day? I truly, truly hope the Bucs don't f*** this up. Unless DC falls off a cliff, this is a no-brainer pick at 1. Especially with the Reynolds uncertainty.

Sure, it was one thing to get off to a nuclear start against subpar, non conference opponents but he's literally RAISED his game against the SEC. 22 games.



I will say, this. Paul Skenes is having an incredible start to his year and is the only other player I think remotely worthy of being discussed at 1.1 and he's still a full tier below Crews right now.

6 starts
5-0 record
0.72 ERA
37 IP
14 hits
0 HR
7 BB
SEVENTY ONE K'S
0.563 WHIP
17 K's/9
1.9 BB/9
10/.14 K/BB ratio

I was listenig to the FAN while Jason M. was on.

He said, that he is hearing from some in the organization, are convinced that it (Reynolds ext.) will get done.

But then he cautioned that with, and I have heard from an equal number of people in the organization, that they DON'T believe it will get done. So a definitely a FWIW.

What gives me more last minute cynicism besides the general doomerism of being a Pirates fan is that I think Reynolds was open to a longer runway for negotiating a deal throughout ST, and now it seems like we're in a higher stakes staring context through the end of the day tomorrow/Thursday morning. I just don't like the looks of everything: Reynolds seems somewhat fine with going to LF (at least based on his public comments), but that's more of a cementation of where any kind of cautious value projection is going to grade him out.

In other words, I think him immediately moving off CF instead of moving off CF somewhat gradually over the next 2-3 years gives even less leverage or talking points to Reynolds' side of things. Maybe I am misreading, but I get the sense that Reynolds is going to be more of the permanent fixture in LF with Suwinski and Bae sharing some time in CF as an experiment.

I think the Pirates just need to be willing to go to Reynolds' AAV ask at 7 years and then it's "reasonable" on both sides. My fear is that their offers will either include some kind of benchmark escalators or just be basically the same offer he turned down but with nominally more money and option years attached or something. There's sort of two sides to it right now, IMO. On one side, if both are willing to negotiate, there isn't a lot of ground to cover to work something on. On the other side, if there's not a lot of ground to cover and there are firm points either side won't cross, then that's more to worry about in terms of the possibility being permanently cratered. I lean a little towards the latter option and that any sourced or quasi-sourced stuff from Heyman and Mackey is all stuff that's coming directly from Cherington or a proxy. I hope I am wrong.

Didn’t Heyman say basically the same exact thing like within the last week?



Yeah it’s literally the same exact tweet

I don't think Cruz would get quite this much on an extension but I think this is a reasonable ballpark for what a Cruz extension would cost after this year. I don't think he'd get quite this much, Gimenez had 7.4 bWAR last year, but it's probably not too far off for a next off-season type of extension for Cruz if he has a 3-5 WAR season this year.

Bob Nutting, is that you?

Today is Reynolds Day, I think any extension with him would have to be completed today or it won't happen. It seems like negotiations probably won't carry on into the season, so today is really do or die day for it.

I'm not overly optimistic but we'll see.

My humble prediction of the Pirates season with limited knowledge of them is 72-90

Yeah, that's the number I'm thinking as well. 72 wins.

Click to read more...

 

[Empoleon8771]

Shelton saying that Suwinski is going to be their everyday CF, as most people expected. Really curious to see who the starting 2B will be, it seems like Bae and Castro will basically be platooning for the role. I don't believe they have anyone else available for that role right now.

 

[Empoleon8771]

One more point about Castro that I thought about when playing the new MLB the Show game. He's a switch hitter but he has substantially better ratings as a righty against lefties than lefties against righties, which made me curious about his career splits. I didn't realize how drastic his splits were in the majors:

-vs RHP as a LHB: .204/.276/.344 slash line, .619 OPS
-vs LHP as a RHB: .266/.316/.578 slash line, .894 OPS

It's the same way with Castro in the minors. In 2022, he OPS'd .880 against lefties and .681 against righties. In 2021, he OPS'd .764 against lefties and .720 against righties. In 2019, he OPS'd .912 against lefties and .704 against lefties. I think using him more as a righty 2B and using Bae (who similarly has better numbers against righties than lefties in the minors) as a lefty 2B makes a lot of sense based on their splits. It's the same idea as platooning Santana and Choi at 1st.

 

[td_ice]

One more point about Castro that I thought about when playing the new MLB the Show game. He's a switch hitter but he has substantially better ratings as a righty against lefties than lefties against righties, which made me curious about his career splits. I didn't realize how drastic his splits were in the majors:

-vs RHP as a LHB: .204/.276/.344 slash line, .619 OPS
-vs LHP as a RHB: .266/.316/.578 slash line, .894 OPS

It's the same way with Castro in the minors. In 2022, he OPS'd .880 against lefties and .681 against righties. In 2021, he OPS'd .764 against lefties and .720 against righties. In 2019, he OPS'd .912 against lefties and .704 against lefties. I think using him more as a righty 2B and using Bae (who similarly has better numbers against righties than lefties in the minors) as a lefty 2B makes a lot of sense based on their splits. It's the same idea as platooning Santana and Choi at 1st.

Oh man, how is it? It looks incredible on the commercials.

Are you enjoying it? What do you play it on?

 

[Empoleon8771]

Oh man, how is it? It looks incredible on the commercials.

Are you enjoying it? What do you play it on?

PS5, yeah I really like it. I don't think it's that much different than 2022, but the graphics do look better and the gameplay feels more realistic.

I feel like 2021 to 2022 was a larger jump for me than 2022 to 2023, but 2023 is still a better game than 2022.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

PS5, yeah I really like it. I don't think it's that much different than 2022, but the graphics do look better and the gameplay feels more realistic.

I feel like 2021 to 2022 was a larger jump for me than 2022 to 2023, but 2023 is still a better game than 2022.

I downloaded it on Game Pass last night and, on XBOX, the graphics seem a little better than 2022, indeed.

Gameplay wise, it feels the same, honestly. It is a little "tougher" earlier in the game as you do not have the good cards yet.

 

[Empoleon8771]

If McCutchen is being talked about as the DH, I think that means 2 of Mitchell, Castro and Bae will be playing.



That 1-2 punch of Greene and Lodolo makes me envious as a Pirates fan.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

One more point about Castro that I thought about when playing the new MLB the Show game. He's a switch hitter but he has substantially better ratings as a righty against lefties than lefties against righties, which made me curious about his career splits. I didn't realize how drastic his splits were in the majors:

-vs RHP as a LHB: .204/.276/.344 slash line, .619 OPS
-vs LHP as a RHB: .266/.316/.578 slash line, .894 OPS

It's the same way with Castro in the minors. In 2022, he OPS'd .880 against lefties and .681 against righties. In 2021, he OPS'd .764 against lefties and .720 against righties. In 2019, he OPS'd .912 against lefties and .704 against lefties. I think using him more as a righty 2B and using Bae (who similarly has better numbers against righties than lefties in the minors) as a lefty 2B makes a lot of sense based on their splits. It's the same idea as platooning Santana and Choi at 1st.

Yeah, Eno Sarris has been really adamant that Castro should just try full time right-handed batting because of these splits. I haven't seen anyone else suggest that, but it definitely does lend itself to a possible platoon with Bae. The only thing is that a RH bat is the weak side of a platoon usually due to how many pitchers are RHP. I guess we'll see.

I suspect part of the situation with the OF is that we wanted to assess if CSN was viable as a starter. I don't think we believe in Swaggerty as a starting player and view him more as emergency depth at this point, and it bears out in terms of how he's been treated. I think given the injury to CSN last year, he's going to get regular ABs otherwise he'd be sent down. I wouldn't be surprised if he's the everyday-ish starter in right field and Suwinski is the same in center, especially with Cutch not being 100%.

All that I really care about at this point is Cutch being in the lineup on the Home Opener. To be honest, I'm more pessimistic about the W-L now than I was earlier in the winter. There are weaknesses all over on top of the unknowns. I think there's a path to 72-75 wins, but earlier I thought that was more of the middle path for this group and right now I think it's probably the upper path, so to speak. So much could go wrong and the early schedule is pretty tough. I'm excited to finally get things rolling again but I don't have a very positive outlook on the immediate future.

 

[td_ice]

Yeah, Eno Sarris has been really adamant that Castro should just try full time right-handed batting because of these splits. I haven't seen anyone else suggest that, but it definitely does lend itself to a possible platoon with Bae. The only thing is that a RH bat is the weak side of a platoon usually due to how many pitchers are RHP. I guess we'll see.

I suspect part of the situation with the OF is that we wanted to assess if CSN was viable as a starter. I don't think we believe in Swaggerty as a starting player and view him more as emergency depth at this point, and it bears out in terms of how he's been treated. I think given the injury to CSN last year, he's going to get regular ABs otherwise he'd be sent down. I wouldn't be surprised if he's the everyday-ish starter in right field and Suwinski is the same in center, especially with Cutch not being 100%.

All that I really care about at this point is Cutch being in the lineup on the Home Opener. To be honest, I'm more pessimistic about the W-L now than I was earlier in the winter. There are weaknesses all over on top of the unknowns. I think there's a path to 72-75 wins, but earlier I thought that was more of the middle path for this group and right now I think it's probably the upper path, so to speak. So much could go wrong and the early schedule is pretty tough. I'm excited to finally get things rolling again but I don't have a very positive outlook on the immediate future.

He came up as one of the topics when talking Buc's with Jason M.. Mackey's feeling (based on just that, his feelings) was that Swaggerty, not being one of GMBC's acquistions/guys, wouldn't be given a look, because of that.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah that makes sense to me too. I think it's going to be another roster management mistake, but at least it's CSN who is benefitting (and who deserves it on merit) and not some waiver claim guy. I am at least willing to entertain the possibility of Suwinski is CF and see what he does for a little while, but I think like the bullpen, the OF defense might be set up to be a place where the already thin margin for error with this team is really stretched.



This might also be a minor thing worth monitoring. I would imagine we are looking at options not making teams elsewhere or perhaps even a minor trade. For example, if a team needs a 4th/5th OF and has a reliever to move, maybe we'll just move Swaggerty.

 

[sovietsanta87]

I downloaded it on Game Pass last night and, on XBOX, the graphics seem a little better than 2022, indeed.

Gameplay wise, it feels the same, honestly. It is a little "tougher" earlier in the game as you do not have the good cards yet.

Agreed. Honestly the gameplay has such a solid base from previous games that I’m ok if they don’t make major changes to it.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Agreed. Honestly the gameplay has such a solid base from previous games that I’m ok if they don’t make major changes to it.

Yeah I agree with this for sure. I played the absolute hell out of 22 that it was really difficult to mess up 23.

I'm also disappointed we didn't hear anything about a Reynolds extension today. I did know to have tempered expectations but it's still disappointing. I think this firmly closes the window on Reynolds getting an extension here.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Don't give me hope Jason

 

[Empoleon8771]

Sounds like we're at the point where both sides are trying to negotiate through the media. Mackey is getting the spin from the Pirates while Murray is getting the spin from Reynolds and his agent.

 

[td_ice]

Sounds like we're at the point where both sides are trying to negotiate through the media. Mackey is getting the spin from the Pirates while Murray is getting the spin from Reynolds and his agent.

No doubt. Win the PR battle.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Mackey's tweet is about as hopeful as I think is possible at this point. My stab in the dark for what might be the situation is that the Pirates are willing to pay the AAV that Reynolds wanted but over 6 years and not 7 or 8. Maybe with some kind of team or perhaps mutual option, and the situation is somewhat of a staring contest with Opening Day being the deadline.

I could be way off, but I see it as a way to try and compromise but mitigate risk on the backend, when Reynolds will be in his mid-30s. I've never been entirely clear in terms of which year any proposed contract would kick in, but this is all just gut feeling / guesswork that the Pirates might be willing to have a 16M+ AAV as long as it wasn't spreading too far out into the future.

On Reynolds' side, it's possible that they see that compromise as not enough, but I do think there is a legitimate question in terms of just how much he could possible cash in. If he's more or less a permanent LF, even with above average defense, and his offensive stats are good but not great, i.e. if the total package is 3-3.5 WAR this year, then I don't actually know if he is going to make more than this ballpark guess if he were to take it to free agency. I don't want to sound disparaging to Reynolds, but I also don't think most teams are going to look to trade him and then extend him beyond that right away.

Effectively, my guess is that the Pirates are saying "we are comfortable with this figure and think it values your consistency even if it sacrifices some ceiling". The most hope I can muster is that Reynolds' side does see some real risk to turning down something like a 6/99M guarantee. I just hope there's not some weaseling on the Pirates side where it's in that ballpark but with a very team-friendly option attached or something. I'd rather just go ahead and get it all the way done even know the last year or two might not be great, but there's also a part of me that thinks if it came out that they straightforwardly offered that kind of deal over 6 years and he said no, then it would be the right level of attempted commitment (assuming that money was immediately pivoted towards Cruz talks, though I also don't think they should be mutually exclusive -- we should be able to sign Reynolds to that and then turn around and do a 7-8 year deal with Cruz).

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Don't worry guys this is all just a ploy to maximize feelz.

At least thats what i heard.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Happy last day without a losing record!

 

[Scandale du Jour]

Has Reynolds sign yet? (x100)

 

[Le Magnifique 66]

Settle the worst team of the division last season, since both teams had the same losing record of 62-100

Pirates have a shot here LOL

 

[Empoleon8771]

I'm surprised Choi isn't playing but the rest of this lineup looks pretty right to me. Bae playing against a righty starter and CSN getting a legit look at RF is what they should be doing.

 

[Goalie_Bob]

I'm psyched! As they say, hope springs eternal.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Heyman is the absolute master of saying nothing.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

In addition to being a kind of platoon, it wouldn't surprise me if Castro tends to sit vs. high K guys and maybe occasionally does get starts against the more backend RHP types. Since Bae can play CF, I think you could see some various matchups depending on the pitcher and who is the hot hand, rotating between Bae, Bastro, CSN, and Swaggerty.

The OFs and IFs are relatively complementary, with Bae and CSN being more contact and in CSN's case OBP types, with Castro and Suwinski being more all or nothing power bats. It works to some extent, but 1) I wonder how useful it will be unless some can hit higher in the order and 2) if CSN does maintain the plate discipline and gets on base + is able to add some more power, then I hope we let him fly as an everyday guy.

Was too many ifs and buts, but if CSN and Hayes can be somewhat similar guys in that they constantly take good ABs, force the pitcher to work, and chip in with 10-15 HRs each, that'll play in the 5 and 6 spots of the order.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Heyman is a hack and very thin skinned. Bum.

Let's Go Bucs!!

A Reynolds extension would completely change the outlook for this team and give us at least some hope that the window for winning more than losing is fast approaching.