Putting It All Together-What does Jarmo do now?

[Nordique]

We are sitting at 14.1% chance of making the playoffs according to sports club stats, http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html . Still a long shot, but we're trending up at a fast pace.

In terms of the future and what Kek should be doing. I don't know that the playoffs matter much in terms of personnel management. He has seen one possible future for this team, and I hope he's considering long and hard any major upheavals. What we have is 18 skaters and a goalie working their ass off every night and winning, thats rare.

Wouldn't it be arrogant/foolish to come in here and decide you have to put your own signature on this roster by moving players at the deadline in order to rebuild yet again, when the team just put together the best month of hockey in the history of the franchise?

How about rebuilding through attrition? You have 4 UFA's to deal with this offseason. Evaluate each, resign the guys that fit your vision and move (or don't resign) the others.

UFA contract expirations:

2013
Prospal
Letestu
Drazenovich
Aucoin

2014
Boll
McKenzie
Nikitin

I bold Vinny and Letestu, because imo you have to resign these guys if the price is reasonable. Drazenovich and Aucoin I move if I can, or let go if I can't. Looking on to next year. Boll and McKenzie are what they are, 4th line guys that are playing well. I don't see moving these guys to make room for a prospect to play 10 minutes a night. Nikitin on the other hand is a guy I could see moving. He's got some value and we have almost have to make room for the young defenseman that have shown they belong.

 

[CapnCornelius]

This has been a great run, I hope it continues. AS far as JK and JD goes, how do you reconcile the team performance versus the challenges again?

We have to win around 5 or so games above .500 the rest of the way to have a shot, at all. The only team within striking distance ATM is SJ. If the top teams continue this pace, 5 games over .500 would only put us in position to take out SJ.

We basically have to win out at home (6-0 or 5-0-1), with a possible OT loss to the Ducks, and finish .500 on the road to have a chance. That is tall order. We are 3-8-1 on the road.

We are set up nicely if we can survive 2 against both the Ducks and Blues, as we face SJ twice.

We look in a better position than we are, when you consider the schedule. But having said that, I didn't think we would be 7-0-4 in our last 11 games either. That is taking care of things at home. 9-4-5 at home is a worthy record for a 6-8 seed.

I guess what I am saying is that, I'm not sure there is a good answer on what we should be doing. The next 5 games will be very interesting. If we are going to prove we can take this game on the road, that Canadian trip is the place to do it. If we stumble, the decision is made for us.

My opinion. If we take 7 of 8 points (3-1-1) in that Canadian trip, as well as beat Calgary, on Friday, we look at trying to find an inexpensive forward rental to add to the depth of the team and maybe spark something like Vermette or JW did. If for no other reason to show the players you are behind them.

We should always have our ear to the ground on a d for forward swap.

The schedules is a real female dog because our hardest stretch is after the trade deadline. Sharks twice, Blues twice, Wild twice, and road games against the Kings and Ducks. Among our "easier" games in the stretch are two against the Preds to bookend the final stretch of games.

So, we could look great come April 3 and the next day the pendulum could start to swing hard the opposite direction.

Fortunately, Jarmo will have no pressure to make a move to save his job that sends the team to the playoffs and cripples them in the long term. He'll probably limit moves to one or two hockey trades and otherwise let the team decide whether or not it is going to make the playoffs based on the guys already in the room.

 

[Kev22]

The schedules is a real female dog because our hardest stretch is after the trade deadline. Sharks twice, Blues twice, Wild twice, and road games against the Kings and Ducks. Among our "easier" games in the stretch are two against the Preds to bookend the final stretch of games.

So, we could look great come April 3 and the next day the pendulum could start to swing hard the opposite direction.

Fortunately, Jarmo will have no pressure to make a move to save his job that sends the team to the playoffs and cripples them in the long term. He'll probably limit moves to one or two hockey trades and otherwise let the team decide whether or not it is going to make the playoffs based on the guys already in the room.

The schedule before the trade deadline won't be easy either. Remember how trips to Western Canada have gone this time of year in the past. I've always said that Western Canada is where Jacket dreams go to die. The trade deadline is exactly two weeks from today. If they are solidly in the playoffs, then I think that we stand pat and maybe add a piece if the cost is bargain basement. If we're on the outside looking in, then JK and JD will proceed with their plan. The schedule over the next two weeks: Flames (H), Predators (A), Canucks (A), Oilers (A), Flames (A) and Ducks (H).

This roll has been great, but how long will it last? Let's say they get 6 points out of these games. You stand at 36 points with 12 games to go. Do you think you're a playoff team? Now if they continue on their current pace of the last 11 games (81.8%, 18 of 22 points possible), then they will have 39 or 40 points with 12 games to go. We'll find out what JK and JD are all about then. I would not want to be in their shoes. I'm not sure in the end that the fans will like the answer they're going to get.

 

[NotWendell]

This may sound like polyannish wishful thinking, but the CBJ's game is a game well suited for playing on the road. I don't think it will take 5 games over .500 to take out the Sharks.

 

[Mayor Bee]

The schedule before the trade deadline won't be easy either. Remember how trips to Western Canada have gone this time of year in the past. I've always said that Western Canada is where Jacket dreams go to die. The trade deadline is exactly two weeks from today. If they are solidly in the playoffs, then I think that we stand pat and maybe add a piece if the cost is bargain basement. If we're on the outside looking in, then JK and JD will proceed with their plan. The schedule over the next two weeks: Flames (H), Predators (A), Canucks (A), Oilers (A), Flames (A) and Ducks (H).

This roll has been great, but how long will it last? Let's say they get 6 points out of these games. You stand at 36 points with 12 games to go. Do you think you're a playoff team? Now if they continue on their current pace of the last 11 games (81.8%, 18 of 22 points possible), then they will have 39 or 40 points with 12 games to go. We'll find out what JK and JD are all about then. I would not want to be in their shoes. I'm not sure in the end that the fans will like the answer they're going to get.

It's likely going to take 55 points, and possibly as many as 58, to finish as the #8 seed. Western games have been going to overtime at a substantially higher rate than the Eastern games, and as it gets closer to the end of the season, there will be a drop in scoring and a further increase in OT/SO games.

40 points with 12 games to go would likely require going 9-3-0 to secure a playoff spot.

 

[Columbus Mike]

SJ sits 8th currently, on pace for 52 points. For them to finish at 58, they'd have to go 14-6. If they do, I suspect they'll be better than 8th.

I'd target 54 points for 8th. That's 24 points in 18 games, 12 of which are on the road. Pretty unlikely, but who thought we'd go 7-0-4?

 

[blahblah]

The schedules is a real female dog because our hardest stretch is after the trade deadline. Sharks twice, Blues twice, Wild twice, and road games against the Kings and Ducks. Among our "easier" games in the stretch are two against the Preds to bookend the final stretch of games.

Yeah, pretty much what I said.

So, we could look great come April 3 and the next day the pendulum could start to swing hard the opposite direction.

that sends the team to the playoffs and cripples them in the long term.

I just can't seem to care about this line of thinking, nor the analysis that a playoff spot will "cripple" us. No offense to you or anyone here, but I just don't want to hear that conventional wisdom anymore. So, please, everyone save their breath when responding to me. I just don't care what the opinion is on the position of our upcoming draft picks. Feel free to talk to each other about it, but just leave me out.

 

[Dr. Fire]

Quite frankly, at this point you can honestly say that we are still a long shot to make the play-offs, but this hot streak has most assuredly cost us a top three pick. The entire Western conference is still a jumbled mess, but in the East there are, what, five teams that are stinking the place up? Well make that three + the Avs in the West.

We are going to have to lose, and lose a lot from here on out to match some of the suckage going on in the East.

Or, get very lucky and win the lottery, and we know how our luck goes with that.

 

[Nordique]

Quite frankly, at this point you can honestly say that we are still a long shot to make the play-offs, but this hot streak has most assuredly cost us a top three pick. The entire Western conference is still a jumbled mess, but in the East there are, what, five teams that are stinking the place up? Well make that three + the Avs in the West.

We are going to have to lose, and lose a lot from here on out to match some of the suckage going on in the East.

Or, get very lucky and win the lottery, and we know how our luck goes with that.

I'd rather have my team on a 12 game point streak with an outside shot at the playoffs then watch them limp to the finish like with their tail between the their legs and a 1st overall pick.

 

[Crede777]

I'd rather have my team on a 12 game point streak with an outside shot at the playoffs then watch them limp to the finish like with their tail between the their legs and a 1st overall pick.

While I'll be disappointed with a 12th overall pick, I've always advocated trying your hardest as a team each season. Don't write a season off for the "good of the future." Management has an obligation to both the players and fans to allow the team to be as competitive as it can be in the here and now. I have a lot more respect for Calgary who constantly tries to stay competitive than Edmonton and Tambellini who for the last 3 years have been an embarrassment.

Hang a sign outside the door of Nationwide that says "Sorry, The Show Has Been Cancelled" if you want to pack in the season and tank for a high pick.

"A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush." -Medieval Proverb

 

[Roadman]

I'd rather have my team on a 12 game point streak with an outside shot at the playoffs then watch them limp to the finish like with their tail between the their legs and a 1st overall pick.

But we can never be successful if we don't have one of those top picks.

 

[Dr. Fire]

I'd rather have my team on a 12 game point streak with an outside shot at the playoffs then watch them limp to the finish like with their tail between the their legs and a 1st overall pick.

Don't misunderstand, I want the play-offs as well. My point wasn't that we need to tank, my point was that we might as well stop worrying about a top three pick. I don't think this team can lose enough now to be worse than the teams that I mentioned.

In that case, let's make the play-offs and worry about the draft later.

 

[OldGoaltender]

Don't misunderstand, I want the play-offs as well. My point wasn't that we need to tank, my point was that we might as well stop worrying about a top three pick. I don't think this team can lose enough now to be worse than the teams that I mentioned.

In that case, let's make the play-offs and worry about the draft later.

I agree, winning cures all. Draft picks are no more than the roll of the dice. I'd be willing to trade some away for proven talent like Bobby Ryan.

 

[CapnCornelius]

I just can't seem to care about this line of thinking, nor the analysis that a playoff spot will "cripple" us. No offense to you or anyone here, but I just don't want to hear that conventional wisdom anymore. So, please, everyone save their breath when responding to me. I just don't care what the opinion is on the position of our upcoming draft picks. Feel free to talk to each other about it, but just leave me out.

Should I feign shock that you have misinterpreted what was stated?

No one said anything about the playoffs in and of themselves crippling us. I'm talking about dumb short sighted personnel moves with the goal of making the playoffs that cripple us long term. Jarmo has no reason to do any such moves.

 

[Crede777]

Should I feign shock that you have misinterpreted what was stated?

No one said anything about the playoffs in and of themselves crippling us. I'm talking about dumb short sighted personnel moves with the goal of making the playoffs that cripple us long term. Jarmo has no reason to do any such moves.

Davidson made it pretty clear last night that the Jackets weren't going to go hard after a rental player. So I wouldn't worry much.

 

[OldGoaltender]

Davidson made it pretty clear last night that the Jackets weren't going to go hard after a rental player. So I wouldn't worry much.

I'm glad Davidson said that. This team doesn't need band aid fixes. We need core players that will grow with our team. Our blue line is becoming very outstanding and Bob is a top flight netminder. A scorer like a Bobby Ryan type would be what the doctor ordered.

 

[alphafox]

Davidson made it pretty clear last night that the Jackets weren't going to go hard after a rental player. So I wouldn't worry much.

Do you have a link to the interview?

 

[Crede777]

Do you have a link to the interview?

I looked for one on the Jackets site but didn't see a recording of it.

He basically said this is a work in progress, that the team is going to grow, and that we need to add top-line forward talent (Johansen was the only one he mentioned with that upside). He said that Seth Jones had separated himself out as the top guy and after that the Jackets are thinking all about offense. He also said that they likely wouldn't trade for a rental this year at the trade deadline. Mentioned Calvert and Atkinson as doing well. Praised Bobrovsky. Didn't mention Mason except indirectly when asked about the goaltending situation he said the "goaltenders will sort that one out."

 

[pete goegan]

... I don't think this team can lose enough now to be worse than the teams that I mentioned.

Sure they can. I hope they won't, but we've seen it happen too many times before to believe its not possible.

In that case, let's make the play-offs and worry about the draft later.

I'm with you, here.

 

[pete goegan]

From The Coach at Unuion Blue:

http://www.theunionblue.com/2013/03...-the-current-incarnation-of-the-blue-jackets/

This is an interesting attempt to compare where the Jackets are now to where the Blues were when JD took over and then see how far they must go to become similar to what he left behind. The Coach usually provides food for thought.

 

[CapnCornelius]

Davidson made it pretty clear last night that the Jackets weren't going to go hard after a rental player. So I wouldn't worry much.

Umm, I'm not worried. I'd be more worried if we had a GM or President on the hot seat. Thankfully, we don't.

 

[NotWendell]

http://www.theunionblue.com/2013/03...-the-current-incarnation-of-the-blue-jackets/

This is an interesting attempt to compare where the Jackets are now to where the Blues were when JD took over and then see how far they must go to become similar to what he left behind. The Coach usually provides food for thought.

That's good stuff. How about coaching changes?

 

[alphafox]

Umm, I'm not worried. I'd be more worried if we had a GM or President on the hot seat. Thankfully, we don't.

Very true, the fact that we don't have somebody on the hot seat looking to make a move to save their job is the most comforting thing about this trade deadline. I won't disregard a major trade (I know ANH doesn't need to trade Bobby Ryan, but I bet we could make them a serious offer) but it will be a trade that is for the better of the team in the long term.

I still think management should trade most of the old guard (Tyutin, Umby and Brass) because this win streak is a short term thing and the assets we get for them would be more beneficial in the long term than the first round exit we will see IF we actually manage to make the playoffs.

 

[NotWendell]

Have we ever considered this possibility? Maybe the reason Umby looks so bad this year compared to last year is because the players around him have gotten better while he's stayed the same? Could the same be said of Brassard?

 

[Jackets16]

he called up prout right?

#goodluck charm

Even though I was against it, because I wanted him to just stay in one place, didn't Johansen come up after he was hired?