Provorov or Adam Fox?

[Flyer lurker]

adam fox on rangers is a bad thing?
You telling me Shesterkin didn't cover up defensive mistakes?
You telling me Georgiev wasn't an above average goalie and help their d?

 

[JackFr]

I think this thread is revealing about a lot of how we generally evaluate defencemen. With forwards, even people who don't like "analytics" use stats to back up their arguments - points, goals, etc. With defencemen (with a few exceptions) they don't, because there aren't back-of-a-hockey-card stats that measure defence. So people just use minutes played, deployment, coach's trust, and reputation to fill in those blanks.

Minutes played is not an adequate measure of how good a defenceman is, and neither is "just trust me on this, he's good", and neither is "he has a reputation for being good." People can scoff at analytics users all they want, but there really is not a way to argue productively about the relative merits of a defenceman without using them to at least some extent - otherwise it's just two sides bickering over hearsay.

Why is Provorov elite? Because Vigneault is generally considered a good coach and he plays him a lot. Now, I think Provorov has been quite good this year - not elite, but very good. A major bounceback from 18-19 for sure. I think that better goaltending and a hell of a lot of puck luck is making him (and the Flyers in generally) look better than they actually are, but I digress. By the only means we have of actually comparing defencemen's play directly, Fox had a better season than Provorov this year. Now, that may sound wrong, it might seem ridiculous that a rookie on a crummy team had a better year than the #1 defenceman on a good team, but it's true.

The argument for Provorov over Fox, aside from ice time and that he's played more seasons, is that people say that Provorov is better than Fox. For a defenceman that's usually enough - why is Doughty better than Hamilton? Because people say Doughty is better than Hamilton. Don't blame analytics users for saying "that's not enough for me."

 

[Machinehead]

adam fox on rangers is a bad thing?
You telling me Shesterkin didn't cover up defensive mistakes?
You telling me Georgiev wasn't an above average goalie and help their d?

Yes, the Rangers are terrible.

In his 12 games, yes.

Georgiev is bad.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

What else would you like me to add. D Leadership at 23.

Provy main player shutting the other line's down so Flyers have best 3rd period stats in hockey.

Ability to go coast to coast on 3 on 3 and score winning goals.

Question is not if he is the fastest or hardest shot.
Question is does he make everyone around him better. check
If one player got lost for season who would cost the most points for Flyers its either Couts or Provorov.

Question is does he make everyone around him better. Over the last 3 years the Flyers control a larger share of the 5-on-5 goals that get scored with Provorov on the bench than the goals that get scored when he is on the ice. So that's debatable.

Hank at 63 years old would be better than Mckenna.

But ignore facts and make fun of it.

Hakstooge would make Crosby into Domi. he was that bad a coach.

Provy and Sanheim are just much better players than last year and why Flyers were one win from Metro lead.
If Provy was not having a great year please tell me how Flyers had so many points? Hayes added 25 flyers points(not player stats) on his own?

Couturier was arguably the best player in the league under Hakstol.

I don't know why you keep bringing up goaltending either. Were these guys using the force on Provorov to make him suck at his job last year? Nobody is using goals against here.

Hank at 63 years old would be better than Mckenna.

But ignore facts and make fun of it.

Hakstooge would make Crosby into Domi. he was that bad a coach.

Provy and Sanheim are just much better players than last year and why Flyers were one win from Metro lead.
If Provy was not having a great year please tell me how Flyers had so many points? Hayes added 25 flyers points(not player stats) on his own?

If the Flyers are so good, and Provorov is better than Adam Fox, why are the Rangers a better team with Adam Fox on the ice than the Flyers with Provorov on the ice? I want you to respond to this one specifically.

 

[Flyer lurker]

Yes, Lundqvist is certainly still better than Mike McKenna who *checks notes* played ONE game for the Flyers.

Here's the thing about Provorov making the Flyers so good this year: he was on the Flyers last year. And the year before.

Its amazing what smart coaching and goalies not named Neuvirth, Mckenna, Pickard, Stolarz, Lyon behind you will do for a player. having the 31th best goalie and 31 best coach means decrease in stats. Is that really that complicated?

 

[Machinehead]

Its amazing what smart coaching and goalies not named Neuvirth, Mckenna, Pickard, Stolarz, Lyon behind you will do for a player. having the 31th best goalie and 31 best coach means decrease in stats. Is that really that complicated?

Yeah but those things also made the Flyers, not Provorov by himself.

And the Rangers now are still worse than the Hakstol Flyers.

 

[Flyer lurker]

Question is does he make everyone around him better. Over the last 3 years the Flyers control a larger share of the 5-on-5 goals that get scored with Provorov on the bench than the goals that get scored when he is on the ice. So that's debatable.



Couturier was arguably the best player in the league under Hakstol.

I don't know why you keep bringing up goaltending either. Were these guys using the force on Provorov to make him suck at his job last year? Nobody is using goals against here.



If the Flyers are so good, and Provorov is better than Adam Fox, why are the Rangers a better team with Adam Fox on the ice than the Flyers with Provorov on the ice? I want you to respond to this one specifically.

How above better in own zone for starters?
How about carrying puck out of zone?
How about leadership taking D on his back at 23?
How about stamina playing 25 minutes a game so Flyers are best 3rd period team in hockey?

Is that good enough start?

 

[LuckyBoeser]

Its amazing what smart coaching and goalies not named Neuvirth, Mckenna, Pickard, Stolarz, Lyon behind you will do for a player. having the 31th best goalie and 31 best coach means decrease in stats. Is that really that complicated?

My reply is specifically responding to your goalie affecting Provorov's results point. Nobody in this thread has posted any stats that would be impacted by goaltending so not sure what you are trying to prove when you are pointing out Flyers' poor goaltending issues in the past.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I think this thread is revealing about a lot of how we generally evaluate defencemen. With forwards, even people who don't like "analytics" use stats to back up their arguments - points, goals, etc. With defencemen (with a few exceptions) they don't, because there aren't back-of-a-hockey-card stats that measure defence. So people just use minutes played, deployment, coach's trust, and reputation to fill in those blanks.

Minutes played is not an adequate measure of how good a defenceman is, and neither is "just trust me on this, he's good", and neither is "he has a reputation for being good." People can scoff at analytics users all they want, but there really is not a way to argue productively about the relative merits of a defenceman without using them to at least some extent - otherwise it's just two sides bickering over hearsay.

Why is Provorov elite? Because Vigneault is generally considered a good coach and he plays him a lot. Now, I think Provorov has been quite good this year - not elite, but very good. A major bounceback from 18-19 for sure. I think that better goaltending and a hell of a lot of puck luck is making him (and the Flyers in generally) look better than they actually are, but I digress.

The argument for Provorov over Fox, aside from ice time and that he's played more seasons, is that people say that Provorov is better than Fox. For a defenceman that's usually enough - why is Doughty better than Hamilton? Because people say Doughty is better than Hamilton. Don't blame analytics users for saying "that's not enough for me."

I am not even saying analytics is the be-all end-all here. I am totally fine with people using the eye test to explain why Provorov is good at defense. Gap control, blocking passing lanes, boxing out forwards in front of the net, drawing forechecking pressure and then evading it, breaking the puck out of his own zone effectively under pressure, breaking up 2-on-1s, or something else that I haven't heard about.

I am giving an entire fan base an opportunity to rave about why the guy that they watch is so good, and why the on-ice results don't do him justice. You would think, if these people watched him so frequently and had such an excellent understanding of his ability, then they would be able to tell us what the stats missed, but their eyes picked up. The fact that nobody has yet is telling although it's late and I suspect I'll get some responses in the morning.

Really, please, somebody tell me WHAT PROVOROV DOES that makes him elite, or better than Fox.

 

[Machinehead]

How above better in own zone for starters?

No.

How about carrying puck out of zone?

Definitely no.

How about leadership taking D on his back at 23?

23 > 21

How about stamina playing 25 minutes a game so Flyers are best 3rd period team in hockey?

Is that good enough start?

Ok sure. And we're back to "Provorov plays more" being the entire argument.

 

[Flyer lurker]

Yeah but those things also made the Flyers, not Provorov by himself.

And the Rangers now are still worse than the Hakstol Flyers.

Rangers have a top 6 a minimum 25 teams would die for.
Rangers have 3 really good d men.
Shesterkin/Georgiev in nets.

Just on goalies alone rangers in 19-20 are wayyyy better than flyers 17-19.
You need f depth and a couple of guys after 21 ED or hope Miller is real deal. Oh and rangers have a coach with a clue. Stop with poor rangers. They are maturity and depth from being 105 point team.

 

[Machinehead]

My reply is specifically responding to your goalie affecting Provorov's results. Nobody in this thread have posted any stats that would be impacted by goaltending so not sure what you are trying to prove when you are pointing out Flyers' poor goaltending issues in the past.

To add to this, THE RANGERS DON'T HAVE GOOD GOALTENDING!!!

Lundqvist died in 2016. They're propping him up with a stick.

Why do people think Georgiev is good?

Shestyorkin has played 12 games.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

How above better in own zone for starters?
How about carrying puck out of zone?
How about leadership taking D on his back at 23?
How about stamina playing 25 minutes a game so Flyers are best 3rd period team in hockey?

Is that good enough start?

You have 100% confidence based on nothing but your eye test that Provorov is better in his own zone. Surely, you must have watched a lot of both players, and surely you can be a bit more specific? What does Provorov do in his own zone better than Fox does?

 

[Flyer lurker]

No.



Definitely no.



23 > 21

Ok sure. And we're back to "Provorov plays more" being the entire argument.

You mean plays more with 1 goal lead so the team had best record with lead after 2 periods KIND OF IMPORTANT!

 

[Machinehead]

You mean plays more with 1 goal lead so the team had best record with lead after 2 periods KIND OF IMPORTANT!

Dan Girardi played a ton of third period minutes when the Rangers were the best third period team in the league.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

There was no middle ground for Jordan Weal.

what does this mean exactly? My point was that just because you found a time where a strong CF% didn't tell the whole story doesn't mean that the plethora of quantifiable ways that Fox outperforms Provorov are all suddenly meaningless. At the end of the day, measurable impact is what counts for how good a player is

 

[Flyer lurker]

Dan Girardi played a ton of third period minutes when the Rangers were the best third period team in the league.

Does this mean Ryan Mc was overrated too when he played all the 3rd period minutes or does it mean he was really really good and stud no 1 d man?

 

[Machinehead]

Does this mean Ryan Mc was overrated too when he played all the 3rd period minutes or does it mean he was really really good and stud no 1 d man?

Not sure what that has to do with anything.

It's a team game.

 

[Flyer lurker]

My reply is specifically responding to your goalie affecting Provorov's results point. Nobody in this thread has posted any stats that would be impacted by goaltending so not sure what you are trying to prove when you are pointing out Flyers' poor goaltending issues in the past.

Lucky hear me out because I want to be detailed.

If you watch the Flyers this year they have put in a system that pinches a lot. It has made the D-men aggressive to do the right thing rather than preventing the wrong thing. I think Flyers were first at d scoring this year top 3 for sure. It gave the d-men much more confidence. Myers, Sanheim and Provy really grew during the season. Mike Yeo is a heckuva of an assistant coach. If AV isn't coach of year at least Yeo is assistant of the year for the job on D and PK.

The season before this was nowhere no be found. You had passive coaches who because the team played 9 goalies made their d-men passive. The goalies and coaching staff made the whole trying not to lose which makes you lose. Post coaching move and adding Hart move Laughton, Sanheim, Provorov, Myers, Kubel, Lindblom (pre cancer diagnosis obviously), Konecky, Hagg are all better players. Voracek after bad first month was playing his best hockey in 4 years. Ghost only player who went backwards.

Provorov's improvement never would have or could have happened under those guidelines. That is why I bring up goalie and d. There was never a chance at 100 optimum Provy in 17-19. Other than stars who did not need the coach (ie Giroux and Couts) and knew better everyone else suffered badly.

Lucky, Can you see I mentioned goalie and coach now?

 

[JoVel]

Currently? Definitely Provorov.

 

[Flyer lurker]

what does this mean exactly? My point was that just because you found a time where a strong CF% didn't tell the whole story doesn't mean that the plethora of quantifiable ways that Fox outperforms Provorov are all suddenly meaningless. At the end of the day, measurable impact is what counts for how good a player is

And if I trusted the stats I could point out Provy in 19-20 has CF of 52.4% with only 46.7 OZ% while Fox is getting 51.7% CF with 55.0 OZ%

But the truth is anyone watching the Flyers doesn't need these stats and knows Provorov is getting the harder assignments just on eye test.

 

[BritainStix]

You literally just explained everything that is going on around him and told me nothing about what he is actually doing.

Please, tell me about "the real Provorov". What makes him so good, and better than Adam Fox?

Provorov plays 25 minutes a night almost exclusively against the best players in the NHL, while being a net positive player on the team.

His true talent lies in his ability to alter his game depending on the opponent. He can mix it up physically and dishes out monster hits when required. He is an absolute rock when the puck is down low, and likewise he can be the focal point of a breakout, with tape to tape passing.

He has a lethal wrist shot, and can straight up fire pucks clean past goalies. He's clearly been working on his slapshot all year too.

His stickwork is amongst the best in the NHL. He regularly strips players like Crosby, Malkin, McDavid etc and starts the breakout the other way.

But his true ability which has been mentioned is his engine. Provorov is as good in his 25th minute of ice time as he is in his first. His consistency across the game is unreal. He could literally PK for two periods and still look fresh in the third. I wouldbe quite confident in saying he's probably the fittest player in the NHL.

He has his flaws for sure. He can fumble the puck more often than I would like which causes turnovers and his PP ability leaves a little to be desired. But my god, when this kid is on, he's up there with the best.

 

[Flyer lurker]

Fox has more points tho

And Since Strome has 59 points he is best player of the lot. BRILLIANT!

 

[Flyer lurker]

Fox has more points tho

Boston should trade McAvoy for Yandle because well points. Should probably throw in a 1 for extra 10 points.

 

[bert]

AV thought Mika Zibanejad was a third liner.

Nope. His average ice time reflected that certainly was not the case, try again. Do you think you have more hockey knowledge than AV too?