Prospect Info: Prospects and Marlies Thread: Marlies Calder Cup Champions Edition

[BM14]

This gives me hope..

 

[GoldenGOOSE]

Bracco put up Bozak-like numbers except unlike Bozak, he spent most of his limited TOI on the Marlies 4th line and was is two years younger than Bozak was. With a promotion he'll show this year he's likely a poor man's Nylander/Marner with similar elite playmaking abilities as those two. Might make Dubas think about trading one of those for that quality defender, as they'll likely have another elite playmaker soon to put beside Matthews or Tavares at a fraction of either Marner's or Nylander's Cap.

This is exactly what I am thinking. Dubas likes good players. Bracco, is a good player. Not as good as perhaps Nylander, but he is good. Crafty, creative.

Nylander so far, has disappointed me with utilizing his shot. I personally don't think he will ever fully recover from that concussion experience. In the world juniors. Many NHLers never are the same after getting the big thump. Kaberle was never the same after getting concussed.

 

[Stigma]

This gives me hope..

I've liked this guy since day 1. An agile, skilled giant? Rare. He's the best of our beasts.

 

[saltming]

This gives me hope..

That skating for such a big guy is so slick. With those mitts, there is solid potential. I'm excited to see how Keefe develops this kid

 

[Cor]

his body of NHL work would heavily disagree, and had the lower level production to support that it's not a total illusion. For those in the Leivo supporter camp, it's more about wanting him to play enough to see if his NHL play/production/positive influence on shot attempts and linemates is real or an illusion. His production per minute is well into 1st line territory over the last couple of seasons despite being played largely with poor linemates in mostly defensive usage, hugely positive relative impacts across the board in shots and shot attempt metrics (especially as you get to the important ones like scoring chances and high danger area shot metrics) and has some nice tools: near elite release, nice vision, excellent puck cycler and down-low possession guy

if it's real, he's a tailor made replacement for JVR. We're also a bit lacking in the size/grit department, he's not a Lucic by any means but is a big body that uses it well

If it's not real and he proves that he can't sustain it, that's fine, we'd rather find out that it's not real while he's here than that it is real when he's playing for someone else

Josh Leivo had one good 13 game stint 2 seasons ago.

He had a 16 game stint last season were he looked replacement level.

He’s at a 31 point pace per 82 games in his career.


Josh Leivo is going to be Richard Panik 2.0, where people are going to be upset when he eventually gets moved, and he may even have a good initial season or two with a new club but he’s not going to be anything we regret

 

[Randy Randerson]

Josh Leivo had one good 13 game stint 2 seasons ago.

He had a 16 game stint last season were he looked replacement level.

He’s at a 31 point pace per 82 games in his career.


Josh Leivo is going to be Richard Panik 2.0, where people are going to be upset when he eventually gets moved, and he may even have a good initial season or two with a new club but he’s not going to be anything we regret

have a look at all of his production rates, shot attempt metrics and pay special attention to the ones that really matter like scoring chances, high danger, x.GF, etc

He's at 31pts per 82 games for his career, while averaging under 11 mins of ice time per game playing mostly with 4th liners. If you don't see that as a positive indicator then you're trying not to see positive indicators

I'm also not pre-determining what he is, I'm saying that his results at the NHL level (which are undeniably better than Panik if you look beyond box scores) are cause to want to see him play more before we make any decisions on him. I'm not sure why anyone calling themselves a Leaf fan would want to turn a blind eye to what he's done rather than give him some ice time before we make decisions

 

[BM14]

That skating for such a big guy is so slick. With those mitts, there is solid potential. I'm excited to see how Keefe develops this kid

A lot of it has to do with scared, smaller players not wanting to get steamrolled which won't happen at the next level, but.I agree with the sentiments from both Saltming and Stigma.

 

[Cor]

have a look at all of his production rates, shot attempt metrics and pay special attention to the ones that really matter like scoring chances, high danger, x.GF, etc

He's at 31pts per 82 games for his career, while averaging under 11 mins of ice time per game playing mostly with 4th liners. If you don't see that as a positive indicator then you're trying not to see positive indicators

I'm also not pre-determining what he is, I'm saying that his results at the NHL level (which are undeniably better than Panik if you look beyond box scores) are cause to want to see him play more before we make any decisions on him. I'm not sure why anyone calling themselves a Leaf fan would want to turn a blind eye to what he's done rather than give him some ice time before we make decisions

Issue with looking at things like xGF% is that since he has a limited sample size, his numbers are inflated and even then he barely cracks the top 10 for our forwards which feature Eric Fehr and Tomas Plekanec. CF% he was one of our worst forwards. GS/60 he slightly beats out Dominic Moore, Connor Brown, Eric Fehr and Kasperi Kapanen, and Komarov and Gauthier were by far the worst.

One interesting thing about Josh Leivo is when you look at his ZSR. For whatever reason, when Mike Babcock does play Josh Leivo, he starts in the offensive zone only about 27% of the time at 5v5.

Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to say Josh Leivo doesn't deserve some sort of chance, or that he is a bad player. His ZSR, and 5v5-P/60 are both intriquing. When you look at his xGF and CF% the story isn't so great.

Which again, is why I compare him to Richard Panik. Panik was a guy who had limited opportunity here, and there were a lot of people who wanted him to get an opportunity due to similar reasons as Leivo, and Panik was eventually dealt, had a good year with Chicago, got a big contract, and then eventually regressed and traded to Arizona.

So I'm personally not trying to say Josh Leivo is a bad player, I think he can be decent enough secondary piece, but his potential here is at most a 4th liner for us due to Nylander, Marner, Hyman, Brown, Marleau Kapanen, Johnsson. Which is nice, and gives us depth, but if another team makes an offer that Dubas thinks is fitting, it's not some injustice.

 

[Boutette]

Which again, is why I compare him to Richard Panik. Panik was a guy who had limited opportunity here, and there were a lot of people who wanted him to get an opportunity due to similar reasons as Leivo, and Panik was eventually dealt, had a good year with Chicago, got a big contract, and then eventually regressed and traded to Arizona.

Panik showed with Chicago that he was a 40pt player so he got a $2.8 mil contract (hardly big these days, those are Hyman numbers and sub-Komarov numbers.) last year he produced at a 40pt pace, so not much of a regression at all. The winning formula in the NHL is overpay who you have to, underpay who you can, try to win any trade you make, and don't dump potential players who will produce more than they are being paid to produce for the opposition. For Panik's production, he's underpaid, so that was a negative value dump . So will Leivo be if he is dumped. That is the pertinent point. Leivo has been a 40pt defensively aware player when given the opportunity. He in underpaid for that production as he is within a margin of error of providing what Marleau provides at a fraction of the cost. You dump him for nothing, some other team will benefit for free, just like Chicago and Arizona have with Panik.

 

[Kiwi]

That skating for such a big guy is so slick. With those mitts, there is solid potential. I'm excited to see how Keefe develops this kid

I don't think the skating or skill side of things have ever been a big issue with Gordeev

It's his hockey IQ/defensive game that tends to be brought up as a weakness

I know a lot of people believe that's a learned skill rather than just an innate part of a players toolbox but if it is that certainly isn't true for everyone

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I've liked this guy since day 1. An agile, skilled giant? Rare. He's the best of our beasts.

He reminds me of Andrew Nielsen. Since Nielsen will likely be dealt at some point this year, Gordeev could be our second chance at someone like him.

 

[saltming]

I don't think the skating or skill side of things have ever been a big issue with Gordeev

It's his hockey IQ/defensive game that tends to be brought up as a weakness

I know a lot of people believe that's a learned skill rather than just an innate part of a players toolbox but if it is that certainly isn't true for everyone

Well I agree that IQ can be increased if the player is apt whereas that skill set/talent is much harder yo come by

 

[Stigma]

He reminds me of Andrew Nielsen. Since Nielsen will likely be dealt at some point this year, Gordeev could be our second chance at someone like him.

Yes, that's a good comparison. A better-skating Nielsen.

I know he has some defensive/IQ deficiencies, but I remember when we drafted him, his coach was highly praising him for learning quickly and being very adaptable. Let's see what happens. I know he's not a slam-dunk, but I do like him the most from our giants. Then again, we've already lost 3 ogres, so he's not exactly competing with a lot of guys anymore!

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Did we have to sign Gordeev to an contract this summer or does he have another year?

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

I don't think the skating or skill side of things have ever been a big issue with Gordeev

It's his hockey IQ/defensive game that tends to be brought up as a weakness

I know a lot of people believe that's a learned skill rather than just an innate part of a players toolbox but if it is that certainly isn't true for everyone

I think he has a late development curve since he switched from forward pretty late, so we can't assess his defensive IQ like the typical prospect. He needs more experience and time imo.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Issue with looking at things like xGF% is that since he has a limited sample size, his numbers are inflated and even then he barely cracks the top 10 for our forwards which feature Eric Fehr and Tomas Plekanec. CF% he was one of our worst forwards. GS/60 he slightly beats out Dominic Moore, Connor Brown, Eric Fehr and Kasperi Kapanen, and Komarov and Gauthier were by far the worst.

One interesting thing about Josh Leivo is when you look at his ZSR. For whatever reason, when Mike Babcock does play Josh Leivo, he starts in the offensive zone only about 27% of the time at 5v5.

Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to say Josh Leivo doesn't deserve some sort of chance, or that he is a bad player. His ZSR, and 5v5-P/60 are both intriquing. When you look at his xGF and CF% the story isn't so great.

Which again, is why I compare him to Richard Panik. Panik was a guy who had limited opportunity here, and there were a lot of people who wanted him to get an opportunity due to similar reasons as Leivo, and Panik was eventually dealt, had a good year with Chicago, got a big contract, and then eventually regressed and traded to Arizona.

So I'm personally not trying to say Josh Leivo is a bad player, I think he can be decent enough secondary piece, but his potential here is at most a 4th liner for us due to Nylander, Marner, Hyman, Brown, Marleau Kapanen, Johnsson. Which is nice, and gives us depth, but if another team makes an offer that Dubas thinks is fitting, it's not some injustice.

I agree on sample size, but I think with the positive indicators that he has that you absolutely need to give him a chance in a bigger sample before you decide to cut bait on him. If he does nothing more than maintain his production, he's a 1st line type forward in a Matt Hoffman/James Neal type tier, and if he falls short of that he could still be a good 3rd liner. If he does turn out as a top 6 type we're in a good position to get a value deal for 3-4 years on him, and if he turns out just as a 3rd line type then maybe we choose a Grundstrom/Johnsson/Kapanen/Korshkov/etc over him but get something half decent back for him as a young and inexpensive option from a team that needs one like Chicago. If he turns out as replacement level, then at least we found that out before making a decision

The reason I really like the idea of Leivo is that I think Babcock is brutally misusing him when he does get in - he's deadly in the offensive zone: great release, good vision, and a dominant possession player along the offensive boards - all of which really inflates the number of good chances that his line gets, so if he's with good players that means more quality opportunity for guys that can do something with it. He struggles in transition because he doesn't accelerate well, so using him in defensive roles with 4th line types really makes him a fish out of water. I'd like to see him in an extended look with 2 good linemates, offensive usage and PP time - give him a chance to succeed given his skillset, and if he doesn't impress then do whatever we're going to do with him.

I think JVR is a good case study - he was out of favour in Philly but never really got used like a top 6 capacity there, then turned a corner immediately and sustainably when he got here because he got the type of usage that suited his game. I could see something similar here, and given that we just lost JVR it seems like we should have a hole to try Leivo out in that same kind of usage that suits his game

Panik also wasn't that good in Chicago, he has a stint right off the bat that he was shooting like 30-40% with a huge OIsh% then that normalized and his production fell off a cliff - he was just really lucky for a little while. IMO he was just as good in Arizona, and his production there has been fine but he's not a top 6 guy

 

[Kiwi]

Well I agree that IQ can be increased if the player is apt whereas that skill set/talent is much harder yo come by

I don't think you can personally

You can put a guy in a system that might mitigate his problems somewhat but low IQ guys tend to stay that way no matter what you try

Gardiner is as toolsy as ****, he's good but still plays like a plank half the time

That's just "baked into the cake"

We need to get Gordeev in house and start trying to work with him, I have some hope with our development and AHL coaching staffs but I think it's going to take some time, if he can be fixed

 

[Kiwi]

I think he has a late development curve since he switched from forward pretty late, so we can't assess his defensive IQ like the typical prospect. He needs more experience and time imo.

That could be a mitigating factor but there's some serious rough edges to smooth out and he's already going into his D+2 season so he's already on the clock to get offered an ECL

 

[saltming]

I don't think you can personally

You can put a guy in a system that might mitigate his problems somewhat but low IQ guys tend to stay that way no matter what you try

Gardiner is as toolsy as ****, he's good but still plays like a plank half the time

That's just "baked into the cake"

We need to get Gordeev in house and start trying to work with him, I have some hope with our development and AHL coaching staffs but I think it's going to take some time, if he can be fixed

That's why I said if the players apt.
Gordeev has the bonus of just becoming a defenseman too so he's just starting his lead in curve.
Hopefully he's one of the apt ones

 

[Kiwi]

That's why I said if the players apt.
Gordeev has the bonus of just becoming a defenseman too so he's just starting his lead in curve.
Hopefully he's one of the apt ones

So do I but I'm not holding my breath until I hear some reports his game is seeing some improvement in that area

 

[saltming]

So do I but I'm not holding my breath until I hear some reports his game is seeing some improvement in that area

Ya not holding my breath but there is still a lot of road for him to travel.
I will be more harsh on him once he joins the Marlies

 

[Cor]

I don't think you can personally

You can put a guy in a system that might mitigate his problems somewhat but low IQ guys tend to stay that way no matter what you try

Gardiner is as toolsy as ****, he's good but still plays like a plank half the time

That's just "baked into the cake"

We need to get Gordeev in house and start trying to work with him, I have some hope with our development and AHL coaching staffs but I think it's going to take some time, if he can be fixed

If Gordeev can be fixed? OHL scouts and people have been buzzing about the kid since October

 

[Kiwi]

Ya not holding my breath but there is still a lot of road for him to travel.
I will be more harsh on him once he joins the Marlies

He's got to get an ECL first, he was drafted out of the OHL so I think we've got to make a call on him this season or next

The road is shortening unfortunately, hopefully he shows enough to make the decision easy for us

If Gordeev can be fixed? OHL scouts and people have been buzzing about the kid since October

His defensive game is interesting to say the least, scouts love size and tools which he's got in spades but he's not going to get anywhere until the defensive side of the game is fixed

 

[saltming]

He's got to get an ECL first, he was drafted out of the OHL so I think we've got to make a call on him this season or next

The road is shortening unfortunately, hopefully he shows enough to make the decision easy for us



His defensive game is interesting to say the least, scouts love size and tools which he's got in spades but he's not going to get anywhere until the defensive side of the game is fixed

I don't see a reason why he won't get an elc just on his offensive skills alone. As for his defense, flint was a tire fire last year and since he was the workhorse his numbers reflect that, but I'm thinking bad team defense made him seem less flattering

 

[Kiwi]

I don't see a reason why he won't get an elc just on his offensive skills alone. As for his defense, flint was a tire fire last year and since he was the workhorse his numbers reflect that, but I'm thinking bad team defense made him seem less flattering

I hope so

I think people overestimate how much certain guys can improve defensively even with the best training and development staff but I hope the kids proves me wrong

Size plus tools is a very tantalizing package