Prospect Info: Prospect Info: Who do you think is the Detroit Red Wings #10 Overall Prospect?

[Henkka]

This is really tough one. Can't decide between those defencemen, so went with Söderblom.

 

[r0bert8841]

This board is all over the place when it comes to evaluating defensemen, we can't come to any consensus about guys we watch 20+ times a year. So I expect the results to be extra volatile when trying to pick the best defensive prospect that many of us have much smaller samples of.

For me Buium/Tuo/Viro are a in a tier above Wallinder/McIsaac/Sebrango + Soderblom/Mastro

add savage

 

[Hen Kolland]

I don't understand why people in this thread have such definitive opinions on the entire lot of McIsaac, Buium, Wallinder, Tuomisto, Viro, Soderblom etc. as if they aren't all the exact same prospect mold. They are guys that are all longer term projects and a lower likelihood of success. They all have significant flaws that will prevent them from playing up in the NHL without some progress to remedy the situation.

There is no right or wrong ranking, it just comes down to which flaws do you think are most easily remedied. Or which upside is more valuable than the risk that the player carries.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Tuomisto again. He is not as good of an athlete (or skater) as Wallinder, but is a much better hockey player at this point. The ranking of Buium ahead of Tuo is a perfect example of recency bias. I am not sure there is anything that Buium does better than Tuomisto to be honest, and is skating is not materially (if at all) better than Tuomisto's. If you take the position that Tuomisto will never make it because of his feet, you should probably be saying the same about Buium. Mind you this is coming from the guy who asked for Buium by name on draft day.

God bless the people who are voting for McIsaac here. Honestly, I have no idea what McIsaac actually looks like as a player at this point. If I was watching a Griffs practice without numbered practice jerseys I honestly wouldn't be able to identify him.

It is a good sign for the prospect pool that we are ten deep and Sebrango, Wallinder and Viro are still on the board. We may not have any super high-end, elite prospects, but we do have really solid depth in terms of defensive prospects. Here is to hoping the numbers game works out in our favor.

 

[Frk It]

Tuomisto again. He is not as good of an athlete (or skater) as Wallinder, but is a much better hockey player at this point. The ranking of Buium ahead of Tuo is a perfect example of recency bias. I am not sure there is anything that Buium does better than Tuomisto to be honest, and is skating is not materially (if at all) better than Tuomisto's. If you take the position that Tuomisto will never make it because of his feet, you should probably be saying the same about Buium. Mind you this is coming from the guy who asked for Buium by name on draft day.

God bless the people who are voting for McIsaac here. Honestly, I have no idea what McIsaac actually looks like as a player at this point. If I was watching a Griffs practice without numbered practice jerseys I honestly wouldn't be able to identify him.

It is a good sign for the prospect pool that we are ten deep and Sebrango, Wallinder and Viro are still on the board. We may not have any super high-end, elite prospects, but we do have really solid depth in terms of defensive prospects. Here is to hoping the numbers game works out in our favor.

What?

Buium is a much better skater and puck rusher than Tuomisto.

Totally different players.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

What?

Buium is a much better skater and puck rusher than Tuomisto.

Totally different players.

You are setting yourself up for disappointment if you think that Buium is a plus skater. His skating is without question the weakest part of his game and he is not overly explosive in both absolute and relative terms. I agree that he rushes the puck more than Tuomisto does, but I question whether that will continue to work at the NCAA level.

 

[r0bert8841]

I don't understand why people in this thread have such definitive opinions on the entire lot of McIsaac, Buium, Wallinder, Tuomisto, Viro, Soderblom etc. as if they aren't all the exact same prospect mold. They are guys that are all longer term projects and a lower likelihood of success. They all have significant flaws that will prevent them from playing up in the NHL without some progress to remedy the situation.

There is no right or wrong ranking, it just comes down to which flaws do you think are most easily remedied. Or which upside is more valuable than the risk that the player carries.

I have been basing it on what the prospects have proven so far for these guys. I think Tuo Viro and McIsaac has shown more than the rest. Unfortunately for McIssac its been 2 years since he has shown anything so that knocks him back down.

 

[SirloinUB]

I don't understand why people in this thread have such definitive opinions on the entire lot of McIsaac, Buium, Wallinder, Tuomisto, Viro, Soderblom etc. as if they aren't all the exact same prospect mold. They are guys that are all longer term projects and a lower likelihood of success. They all have significant flaws that will prevent them from playing up in the NHL without some progress to remedy the situation.

There is no right or wrong ranking, it just comes down to which flaws do you think are most easily remedied. Or which upside is more valuable than the risk that the player carries.

Completely agree. Pretty sure Id rank these 2nd and 3rd round D prospects in a different order every week.

 

[Frk It]

You are setting yourself up for disappointment if you think that Buium is a plus skater. His skating is without question the weakest part of his game and he is not overly explosive in both absolute and relative terms. I agree that he rushes the puck more than Tuomisto does, but I question whether that will continue to work at the NCAA level.

This is some of what was written about Buium in The Black Book:

What drives his upside that much more is that he's one of the more gifted puck moves in this class. His vision combines with his three way mobility and passing skillset.

In Terms of pure puck skills, Shai is right up there with some of the the defenseman in this class, but he can use them while going at full speed

I don't recall anything nearly that complimentary in regards to Tuomisto.

To your original point, to say Buium does nothing better, I think that was not correct to say. Buium has much better puck skills, which is not a surprise given he was converted from forward to defense.

 

[HoweFan]

In order. Wallinder, MacIssac, Soderbloom, Viro, and Tuomisto. I think they will all play in the NHL eventually. Wallinder has the most potential, MacIssac the most likely. Soderbloom is the longest shot. It’s awesome that we still have this caliber of prospects this far down on our list

 

[MBH]

I don't think it's a hot take at all, most of the kids from here on out won't make the NHL. Then again, I voted for Sebrango too.

I have no idea why anyone is voting for McIsaac, he injured his good shoulder on a light hit. He played one shift before his injury. No way he's built to play in the NHL.

Because he can skate.
Because he has IQ.
Because he plays defense.
He's potentially the second best young LD in the system.

 

[Tetsuo]

This has to be Viro here. He's well ahead of Buium, let alone Tuomisto, Wallinder or McIsaac. His results in an actual professional league speak for themselves. Maybe not as high upside as some of those guys, but the skating + hockey sense package with him is excellent.

Add Dower-Nilsson.

 

[Gniwder]

Because he can skate.
Because he has IQ.
Because he plays defense.
He's potentially the second best young LD in the system.

And his shoulders blow up when he gets touched. I'd be surprised if he lasts a month in the AHL.

You're ignoring his #1 issue.

 

[Hen Kolland]

And his shoulders blow up when he gets touched. I'd be surprised if he lasts a month in the AHL.

You're ignoring his #1 issue.

Right now, he's had one significant injury to both shoulders. We don't have any repeat injuries, and the hope is that they are truly one off instances. It's not fair at this point to describe him as having glass shoulders.

We have to see what he looks like coming back after this offseason. I recall reading an article about McIsaac talking about how he hasn't had an offseason to properly train and build his upper body in two years now. This would be the year he can actually work on it. You hope that the injuries were just freak instances and he is able to play uninhibited this year. From a roundness and physical play style, McIsaac is probably the most pre-equipped depth defenseman in the system. The IQ won't look Tuomisto, the mobility won't look like Wallinder...but at the same time, the IQ won't look like Wallinder and the mobility won't look like Tuomisto.

Personally, I am hopeful that McIsaac is able to force Sebrango out of a job and send him back to Kitchener. Sebrango could use the offensive development, and McIsaac should be able to play his way into a prominent role in GR if the shoulders aren't an issue.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

This is some of what was written about Buium in The Black Book:



I don't recall anything nearly that complimentary in regards to Tuomisto.

To your original point, to say Buium does nothing better, I think that was not correct to say. Buium has much better puck skills, which is not a surprise given he was converted from forward to defense.

Tuomisto being a below average skater does not make Buium an above average one. Truthfully, if you watch Tuomisto, the only real issue with his skating his is explosiveness and quickness. He isn't really limited by any big technical shortcomings. Buium is plagued by the same general issue. I disagree with the bolded point as well for the record. Tuomisto shows a lot of skill and pose with the puck.

 

[Gniwder]

Right now, he's had one significant injury to both shoulders. We don't have any repeat injuries, and the hope is that they are truly one off instances. It's not fair at this point to describe him as having glass shoulders.

We have to see what he looks like coming back after this offseason. I recall reading an article about McIsaac talking about how he hasn't had an offseason to properly train and build his upper body in two years now. This would be the year he can actually work on it. You hope that the injuries were just freak instances and he is able to play uninhibited this year. From a roundness and physical play style, McIsaac is probably the most pre-equipped depth defenseman in the system. The IQ won't look Tuomisto, the mobility won't look like Wallinder...but at the same time, the IQ won't look like Wallinder and the mobility won't look like Tuomisto.

Personally, I am hopeful that McIsaac is able to force Sebrango out of a job and send him back to Kitchener. Sebrango could use the offensive development, and McIsaac should be able to play his way into a prominent role in GR if the shoulders aren't an issue.

The issue I have is that it wasn't even a big hit, I'll look for the video when I get home. No amount of working out can strengthen ligaments, and I seriously doubt he will wind up playing physical in the NHL considering how fragile his shoulders are.

Sebrango has already played twice as many AHL games as McIsaac, and the coaches there appear to trust him. I doubt he gets sent down. I'm not concerned about his offensive game, there's room on this team for a solid 3rd pair stay at home guy, and if he sticks to his game I'm sure we'll see him on the Wings roster eventually. Plus he's got 4 years to work on his game before he's waivers eligible.

 

[Hen Kolland]

The issue I have is that it wasn't even a big hit, I'll look for the video when I get home. No amount of working out can strengthen ligaments, and I seriously doubt he will wind up playing physical in the NHL considering how fragile his shoulders are.

Sebrango has already played twice as many AHL games as McIsaac, and the coaches there appear to trust him. I doubt he gets sent down. I'm not concerned about his offensive game, there's room on this team for a solid 3rd pair stay at home guy, and if he sticks to his game I'm sure we'll see him on the Wings roster eventually. Plus he's got 4 years to work on his game before he's waivers eligible.

I tore my ACL in college, why did my ortho provide a rigorous physical rehab and an extensive PT program to strengthen everything possible in my legs to build a sturdier foundation if working out is pointless and ligaments can't be strengthened? Please note, I am not saying ligaments can be strengthened the way muscles can be, but that training in general is how you can become more capable of handling the rigors. Working out and building muscle is still the best bet he has to mitigate any of those lingering concerns he might have. Will it work? Who knows, but writing him off at 21 because he's injured both shoulders is wholly shortsighted. We have no idea if his problem is chronic or coincidence at this point. You are merely speculating based on your belief that all bodies and all injuries are the exact same, or similar enough that you can jump to the same conclusion.

 

[Gniwder]

I tore my ACL in college, why did my ortho provide a rigorous physical rehab and an extensive PT program to strengthen everything possible in my legs to build a sturdier foundation if working out is pointless and ligaments can't be strengthened? Please note, I am not saying ligaments can be strengthened the way muscles can be, but that training in general is how you can become more capable of handling the rigors. Working out and building muscle is still the best bet he has to mitigate any of those lingering concerns he might have. Will it work? Who knows, but writing him off at 21 because he's injured both shoulders is wholly shortsighted. We have no idea if his problem is chronic or coincidence at this point. You are merely speculating based on your belief that all bodies and all injuries are the exact same, or similar enough that you can jump to the same conclusion.

No, I'm speculating because of this:

19:02 game time, McIsaac is #44 in white.

That is not a hard hit, and now he's had surgery on both of his shoulders. As soon as he makes the league, every team is literally going to test his shoulders. He won't last a season. Heck, I'd be surprised if he makes it through an AHL season.

 

[Killerjas]

It is a toss between Wallinder, Viro and Tuomisto. Wallinder's potential is the highest, but is the player most likely to not reach it.

 

[Hen Kolland]

No, I'm speculating because of this:

19:02 game time, McIsaac is #44 in white.

That is not a hard hit, and now he's had surgery on both of his shoulders. As soon as he makes the league, every team is literally going to test his shoulders. He won't last a season. Heck, I'd be surprised if he makes it through an AHL season.

I've seen the play and I know the hit wasn't particularly violent, but that doesn't mean it wasn't an awkward collision. He tries to get his arms up to brace against the glass and his shoulder just looks like it got pinned in an awkward position. I don't care if you have shoulder problems or not, getting your arm pinned in an awkward position will cause havoc on your shoulders.

You still have zero evidence to support that he has chronic shoulder problems, but continue to speak as if you do. This could be a coincidental injury or it could be a chronic issue. We just don't know at this point what it is or what it means for his future. Every team might test his shoulders and that doesn't mean f*** all if he doesn't have chronic shoulder problems. The hope is that it was bad luck and that he bounces back without any troubles.

If you want to continue to play fortune teller, by all means feel free. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut...you get the idea. You might end up being right, but it's not because you know without a shadow of doubt; it will be due to dumb luck.

 

[r0bert8841]

Add Dower-Nilsson.

Why are people asking to add this years 5th round pick when the 3rd and 4th rounders haven't been added yet? The professional scouts have already shown how they view these players and no hockey has been played since to change that.

 

[jaster]

The ranking of Buium ahead of Tuo is a perfect example of recency bias.

I'm going to push back on this a bit. Not picking on you at all, but it's an interesting subject. For me, it's not recency bias. Or, if it is, I'll argue recency bias is not actually a bad thing. Ok, to tease that out....

[This is how I view prospects anyway.] Prospects have a trajectory. We all may disagree a bit on what that trajectory is, but they have one in our eyes. Additionally, the day they are drafted is when they have the widest range of potential outcomes as part of your organization. So once they start playing games, depending on how they perform, good or bad, or how well they show off their assets and faults, their trajectory can easily change. It can go up if they out-perform expectations, or go down if they under-perform. Further, in conjunction with trajectory, as they continue along in their development they start using up "runway," and that range of outcomes begins to narrow. Again, maybe narrow in a positive way, or in a negative way. So, as they move along, they really need to show something for me to move them up in the rankings, so to speak, or even keep them level.

So, when it comes to Buium vs Wallinder for example, I see them as fairly similar and comparable in terms of their respective draft-day trajectories. Some people may disagree with that (I know some think Wallinder should have been drafted higher and/or Buium lower), but I see them both as defense prospects with high ceilings, low floors, and some attractive tools. Now, for me, where they diverge is Wallinder's D+1 season. Last season. Watching him, my opinion dropped on him from where it was on draft day. His trajectory lowered for me. The same could easily happen with Buium, but it hasn't yet and I'm giving him the same benefit of the doubt I gave Wallinder before his first season in the org. Basically, I rate Buium even with the Wallinder from 2020. But I rate Wallinder 2021 lower than Wallinder 2020.

Another example is Sebrango. A kid who jumped all of McIsaac, Tuomisto, and Wallinder for me. He's of course not as toolsy, but his trajectory has improved, where the latter three have dipped (maybe Tuomisto has remained even). His range of potential outcomes has improved, while the others have not.

So, recency bias? It can be called that, but it's more than just "shiny new toy" for me. It's backed by some reasoning having to do with trajectory, range of outcomes, runway, and proximity. A boom or bust type like Wallinder really has to show some improvement on his trajectory to remain relevant to me, and he hasn't done that yet. He does still have a lot of runway though, and if the improvement comes he'll more easily rise on my list than most other prospects.

 

[MBH]

Söderblom is a pretty bad skater.

No, he's not.

 

[MBH]

And his shoulders blow up when he gets touched. I'd be surprised if he lasts a month in the AHL.

You're ignoring his #1 issue.

I'm not ignoring it at all.
If it wasn't for that issue, he might as high as 5th or 6th in my ranking.

People thought Niklas Kronwall was never going to play with all the injuries he had.
While I downgrade McIsaac, I'm not going to write him off just yet.

 

[MBH]

Why are people asking to add this years 5th round pick when the 3rd and 4th rounders haven't been added yet? The professional scouts have already shown how they view these players and no hockey has been played since to change that.

People can disagree with the scouting.
I don't think Mazur should be anywhere near this list yet.