Line Combos: Projecting your 2021-2022 Panthers

[letsgrowcactus]

Hornqvist has been money on the PP but zero chance they take a 35 year old with injury history and his contract. I mean if they would it would actually be a huge cap relief for the Panthers.

Plus I think many teams are looking to dump some of their garbage deals on them. They won't have trouble reaching the cap floor and if smart get paid while doing it.

Agreed.
With that in mind, maybe going 8-1 actually makes sense? We protect Barkov, Huberdeau, Verhaeghe and Duclair, plus four Dmen (Ekblad, Weegar and 1-2 other guys depending on Yandle waiving or not). Obviously let's see how the season goes, but at this point our other forwards are either exempt or are 3rd-4th liners and thus replaceable.

 

[Jean Luc Discard]

Agreed.
With that in mind, maybe going 8-1 actually makes sense? We protect Barkov, Huberdeau, Verhaeghe and Duclair, plus four Dmen (Ekblad, Weegar and 1-2 other guys depending on Yandle waiving or not). Obviously let's see how the season goes, but at this point our other forwards are either exempt or are 3rd-4th liners and thus replaceable.

Seattle will probably try to replicate the success Vegas had from the get-go by picking up 25-28yo players and thus Vatrano, Nutivaara and maybe Gudas would be the ones garnering most attention. I'd prefer protecting Vatrano even tho Nutivaara and Gudas might be more valuable in a vacuum. So 7+3+1.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

Can't see Mrazek leaving Carolina unless the team doesn't want him anymore - he finally found his groove again after things turned sour in Detroit and is playing behind solid D.

Ya he's up and down it seems even in CAR but can also see him staying too.
I'm surprised they wouldn't move Reimer and go get a proven guy even if for the year, go for it now because Hamilton is a UFA this year and he will cost a ton to re-sign, Svech still on his ELC for this year, Trocheck only having 2 years left.

The time for them is now, I get their defense covers up for their average goaltending but they may look back on this year and wish they had upgraded in net if they dont get to the 3rd round or beyond.

 

[KW]

Can we take this from the opposite direction in a sense?

If we do 7-3-1, and assume no NMC waiving, who do we expose that we would care about?

If we do 4-4-1, who’s on the exposed list (that we really care about)?

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

Can we take this from the opposite direction in a sense?

If we do 7-3-1, and assume no NMC waiving, who do we expose that we would care about?

If we do 4-4-1, who’s on the exposed list (that we really care about)?

So you're thinking:

4F: Bark, Huby, Duke, Swaggy
4D: Yandle, Ek, Weegs, Nuti/Gudas
1G: Bob

?

 

[Pigge]

So you're thinking:

4F: Bark, Huby, Duke, Swaggy
4D: Yandle, Ek, Weegs, Nuti/Gudas
1G: Bob

?

For now that looks reasonable. Then it's Horny, Vatrano and some forward vs Nuti/Gudas. Right now Gudas looks like a player that we don't want to lose, but that also goes for Horny. Maybe Duclair or Verhaeghe will show some flaws later on and could be exposed.

 

[Dread Clawz]

I absolutely agree that he is not your random 4th liner and I would never compare him to a Lomberg.

Still, even an exceptional 4th liner should not be the priority to be protected for an expansion draft. You can find other players able to do that. Would you have protected Derek MacKenzie??

It's not always easy to get the UFAs you want though. Cookie is the best 4th liner we've had in years. And that's even if he's on a 10 goal pace instead of 20. And yes, way better than the last few years of MacKenzie.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

For now that looks reasonable. Then it's Horny, Vatrano and some forward vs Nuti/Gudas. Right now Gudas looks like a player that we don't want to lose, but that also goes for Horny. Maybe Duclair or Verhaeghe will show some flaws later on and could be exposed.

I know this sounds crazy but I'd almost give up a 2022 2nd + mid tier prospect + 2021 3rd for them not to take Horny or Gudas.
These two have brought it from day one and are solid depth guys.

We've changed the roster over and over, 5-6 guys in 2019-2020, now another 6-7 guys this year.
Time to keep most of it intact and add to it at trade deadline to get to playoffs this year, add another piece in offseason and pray it keeps Barkov here.

 

[Chaos2k7]

So you're thinking:

4F: Bark, Huby, Duke, Swaggy
4D: Yandle, Ek, Weegs, Nuti/Gudas
1G: Bob

?

They cannot Tallon it again, has to be 7-3-1, and you ask Seattle who they would pick, and you see if that person is worth making a deal for.

Not, here take this top sixer, to ensure you take another top sixer, while I protect precious bottom sixers and bottom pairing dmen.

Bjug, Petro, Pysyk, just as some fictitious examples.

 

[Dread Clawz]

Ya he's up and down it seems even in CAR but can also see him staying too.
I'm surprised they wouldn't move Reimer and go get a proven guy even if for the year, go for it now because Hamilton is a UFA this year and he will cost a ton to re-sign, Svech still on his ELC for this year, Trocheck only having 2 years left.

The time for them is now, I get their defense covers up for their average goaltending but they may look back on this year and wish they had upgraded in net if they dont get to the 3rd round or beyond.

Yeah I'm surprised they didnt get a goalie either.

 

[KW]

So you're thinking:

4F: Bark, Huby, Duke, Swaggy
4D: Yandle, Ek, Weegs, Nuti/Gudas
1G: Bob

?

No, sorry, I wasn’t all that clear. I think we all know that those names are protected.

I’m looking for a list of names NOT protected under the 7-3-1 and 4-4-1 scenarios. And once we have those (I think they’ve been stated already but I’m on my mobile and harder to look them up) - it’s pretty easy to say who we care about.

For example: Connolly - who cares. Driegs - is he the only one anyone worries about? Or maybe Gudas in 7-3-1? That’s what I’m after. Maybe it’s truly just one player (CD) that anyone cares about and then if Bob doesn’t waive there’s nothing much to do about it. Would we protect him by giving SEA a pick?

 

[austropanther]

It's not always easy to get the UFAs you want though. Cookie is the best 4th liner we've had in years. And that's even if he's on a 10 goal pace instead of 20. And yes, way better than the last few years of MacKenzie.

Not getting my point across. Wether he is the best or worst 4th liner we ever had, do we really want to spend a protection spot on him? If we HAVE to choose somebody from the depth chart - sure, easy choice.
I'd rather keep it for one of our established Dman. Sad part would be that Seattle would most likely take Cookie if exposed, but I think we could live with it.

 

[Dread Clawz]

Not getting my point across. Wether he is the best or worst 4th liner we ever had, do we really want to spend a protection spot on him? If we HAVE to choose somebody from the depth chart - sure, easy choice.
I'd rather keep it for one of our established Dman. Sad part would be that Seattle would most likely take Cookie if exposed, but I think we could live with it.

It depends if we go 7 3 1 or 4 4 1. There might be another forward worth protecting beside Cookie, and Cookie is just worth protecting also at that point. We have to see how the season plays out and everybody performs.

 

[RogerRoger]

I wouldn't be too worried about losing a dman, many solid dmen are going to be exposed. Going over quickly with the Capfriendly tool; McDonagh, Faulk, Dumba, Toews, Murphy, Fleury, etc. I doubt Seattle would want Gudas for their #7 and flipping him wouldn't net much assets.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

No, sorry, I wasn’t all that clear. I think we all know that those names are protected.

I’m looking for a list of names NOT protected under the 7-3-1 and 4-4-1 scenarios. And once we have those (I think they’ve been stated already but I’m on my mobile and harder to look them up) - it’s pretty easy to say who we care about.

For example: Connolly - who cares. Driegs - is he the only one anyone worries about? Or maybe Gudas in 7-3-1? That’s what I’m after. Maybe it’s truly just one player (CD) that anyone cares about and then if Bob doesn’t waive there’s nothing much to do about it. Would we protect him by giving SEA a pick?

Ya for me, wouldn't lose any sleep if Connolly was picked. Vatrano is more of a loss because he scores similar amount of goals and points but has that pest/physical side to him.

Tippett is basically Connolly if he's plastered to the 3rd line for the whole year, he will start scoring and become more confident.

I don't think we will lose Driedger, solely because of the UFA status and uncertainty of signing him in such a short window.
Feel he would come back on a 2 year deal if Zito is straight with him and says, you're here until Knight is ready.
Q and the team like him, he will get his fair share of games to showcase himself for a bigger deal down the road and we are probably a playoff team before SEA is (no way SEA catches lightning in a bottle like VGK did, GMs will be smarter this time around)

At start of year I was more willing to protect Nuti based on age and possible upside but Gudas plays such a good role for this team.

I'm okay if its Nutivaara or Connolly, would be a little upset if its Vatrano, Driedger or Gudas. Maybe throw some mid picks or a mid tier prospect to SEA to keep Gudas here if he keeps doing well.

How about you?

 

[KW]

Ya for me, wouldn't lose any sleep if Connolly was picked. Vatrano is more of a loss because he scores similar amount of goals and points but has that pest/physical side to him.

Tippett is basically Connolly if he's plastered to the 3rd line for the whole year, he will start scoring and become more confident.

I don't think we will lose Driedger, solely because of the UFA status and uncertainty of signing him in such a short window.
Feel he would come back on a 2 year deal if Zito is straight with him and says, you're here until Knight is ready.
Q and the team like him, he will get his fair share of games to showcase himself for a bigger deal down the road and we are probably a playoff team before SEA is (no way SEA catches lightning in a bottle like VGak did, GMs will be smarter this time around)

At start of year I was more willing to protect Nuti based on age and possible upside but Gudas plays such a good role for this team.

I'm okay if its Nutivaara or Connolly, would be a little upset if its Vatrano, Driedger or Gudas. Maybe throw some mid picks or a mid tier prospect to SEA to keep Gudas here if he keeps doing well.

How about you?

Yeah, I’m almost exactly the same, with one difference, I wouldn’t be that upset if we lost Frankie. He’s a fan favorite but among him, Gudas and CD, I’d hate losing Driegs the most, Gudas next, and TBH for me Vatrano is a distant third.

On offense, I feel that we need to protect 5 (unless one is traded for a D at some point): B, H, V, Duke (I’d sign and protect him), Horny (yeah even tho he’s older).

On defense, the must list is 3: Ek, Wee, Yandle.

So do we go 7-3-1, protect Acc and Frankie as well? Or we go 4-4-1 and expose those two and protect Gudas? It boils down to two things IMO:
1) Is Gudas > Acc, Vat AND Horny/Duke?
2) Is Acc or Vat a better decoy so they don’t take Driegs, which I really want to keep the most.

I think I go 7-3-1 and either take a chance with Gudas/CD or give them a pick to not take either but take the proven scorer Connolly...

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

Yeah, I’m almost exactly the same, with one difference, I wouldn’t be that upset if we lost Frankie. He’s a fan favorite but among him, Gudas and CD, I’d hate losing Driegs the most, Gudas next, and TBH for me Vatrano is a distant third.

On offense, I feel that we need to protect 5 (unless one is traded for a D at some point): B, H, V, Duke (I’d sign and protect him), Horny (yeah even tho he’s older).

On defense, the must list is 3: Ek, Wee, Yandle.

So do we go 7-3-1, protect Acc and Frankie as well? Or we go 4-4-1 and expose those two and protect Gudas? It boils down to two things IMO:
1) Is Gudas > Acc, Vat AND Horny/Duke?
2) Is Acc or Vat a better decoy so they don’t take Driegs, which I really want to keep the most.

I think I go 7-3-1 and either take a chance with Gudas/CD or give them a pick to not take either but take the proven scorer Connolly...

Ya I agree with this. Guess we have the year to further analyze which protection route we go but its highly unlikely we lose two top 6 forwards this time around ...

I'd also agree with the order of CD, Gudas and Frank. Only reason I would protect Frank is itd be a contract year for him and that's likely when you get the best out of someone who's working hard for another multi year deal.

Don't think we re-sign him but we could squeeze every drop of value from him and possibly let him walk end of next year (assuming we're making playoffs), otherwise move him for whatever assets you can if out of the playoff race.

I hate to harp on Yandle again but it would be nice if he did waive his NMC so we can protect Gudas outright (he signed here and seems like he genuinely wants to be here and not just signing a retirement deal like say Connolly), as others have said, doubtful SEA would take Yands but if he cares about the Ironman streak, he can likely continue it there and be part of a new franchise which is a cool feather in the cap.

 

[violaswallet]

Ya I agree with this. Guess we have the year to further analyze which protection route we go but its highly unlikely we lose two top 6 forwards this time around ...

I'd also agree with the order of CD, Gudas and Frank. Only reason I would protect Frank is itd be a contract year for him and that's likely when you get the best out of someone who's working hard for another multi year deal.

Don't think we re-sign him but we could squeeze every drop of value from him and possibly let him walk end of next year (assuming we're making playoffs), otherwise move him for whatever assets you can if out of the playoff race.

I hate to harp on Yandle again but it would be nice if he did waive his NMC so we can protect Gudas outright (he signed here and seems like he genuinely wants to be here and not just signing a retirement deal like say Connolly), as others have said, doubtful SEA would take Yands but if he cares about the Ironman streak, he can likely continue it there and be part of a new franchise which is a cool feather in the cap.

We could maybe make a deal with Seattle to protect a guy like Gudas: this is where someone like Borg might be useful. Say Borg to Seattle for them selecting Conman

 

[KW]

We could maybe make a deal with Seattle to protect a guy like Gudas: this is where someone like Borg might be useful. Say Borg to Seattle for them selecting Conman

And they wouldn’t become Kraken first line and go on a tear, that’s for sure.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

We could maybe make a deal with Seattle to protect a guy like Gudas: this is where someone like Borg might be useful. Say Borg to Seattle for them selecting Conman

Ya throw in a couple future 3rds if need be.
Or a 2022 2nd since we draft bums every year in that round

 

[BabyBennettov]

People are really discussing losing Hornqvist and going 8-1 in the expansion draft ?

Man... Losers never learn...

 

[letsgrowcactus]

People are really discussing losing Hornqvist and going 8-1 in the expansion draft ?

Man... Losers never learn...

Convince me then that Seattle takes Hornqvist if exposed.
He's been very valuable for us, no argument there. But he's 34, with two more years at 5.3 mill (the salary actually matches the cap in his case), he's been injured a couple times the past few years, it's Covid economy... He is a forward so that makes him more valuable in the expansion draft. Still.

Looking at who Vegas actually took:
Engelland was 35, but he was living in Vegas at the time and they signed him for one year at 2 mill.
Fleury was 32 but a) he was easily the best starter available and b) Pittsburgh paid Vegas a 2nd rounder to take him (yeah that aged well...)
Bellemare was 31 and signed for 2.9 mill/2 years
Garrison was 32 at 4.6 mill and Tampa had to send a 2nd + 4th + Gusev for Vegas to take him.
Stoner (31) was drafted at the cost of adding Shea Theodore.

Again, I'm not denying the value Hornqvist has for us (and not just on-ice). But would he get claimed?

Honestly, going 8-1 in 2017 wouldn't have been so bad if not for the idiotic trade and protecting the wrong guys. If you love the D so much/value the forwards so little, protect Huberdeau, Barkov, Trocheck, Marchesseault, Yandle (NMC), Ekblad, Pysyk/Petro (sigh) and Weegar. You leave exposed Smith (coming off a bad season), Jágr (yeah...), Demers (bad fit, expensive), Jokinen (bad year, UFA), Sceviour (4th liner), the other of Petro/Pysyk, Bjugstad (coming off horrible season, expensive and injury prone) and a couple fringe guys. What's the worst that happens in this case? They take Smith - well, apparently we wanted him gone. They take Demers or Bjugstad (LOL) - good riddance. They take one of the fringe guys, no big loss (you then move Smith to a team that lost a forward in the expansion draft since you want him gone so badly, retain a bit if necessary). But instead, Tallon had to get clever and the rest is history.

I'm not even saying we should go 8-1 (let's see how this whole group does first over the course of a full season...). This draft will also be different from Vegas (teams will be much less inclined to make stupid trades; not to mention Covid). I haven't really looked at the other clubs and who they might expose so admittedly IDK just how bad the situation at forward is - are there so few options that you go for the 34 year old guy?

And if we did lose Hornqvist, what options does that freed money give us?

 

[Jean Luc Discard]

Convince me then that Seattle takes Hornqvist if exposed.
He's been very valuable for us, no argument there. But he's 34, with two more years at 5.3 mill (the salary actually matches the cap in his case), he's been injured a couple times the past few years, it's Covid economy... He is a forward so that makes him more valuable in the expansion draft. Still.

Looking at who Vegas actually took:
Engelland was 35, but he was living in Vegas at the time and they signed him for one year at 2 mill.
Fleury was 32 but a) he was easily the best starter available and b) Pittsburgh paid Vegas a 2nd rounder to take him (yeah that aged well...)
Bellemare was 31 and signed for 2.9 mill/2 years
Garrison was 32 at 4.6 mill and Tampa had to send a 2nd + 4th + Gusev for Vegas to take him.
Stoner (31) was drafted at the cost of adding Shea Theodore.

Again, I'm not denying the value Hornqvist has for us (and not just on-ice). But would he get claimed?

Honestly, going 8-1 in 2017 wouldn't have been so bad if not for the idiotic trade and protecting the wrong guys. If you love the D so much/value the forwards so little, protect Huberdeau, Barkov, Trocheck, Marchesseault, Yandle (NMC), Ekblad, Pysyk/Petro (sigh) and Weegar. You leave exposed Smith (coming off a bad season), Jágr (yeah...), Demers (bad fit, expensive), Jokinen (bad year, UFA), Sceviour (4th liner), the other of Petro/Pysyk, Bjugstad (coming off horrible season, expensive and injury prone) and a couple fringe guys. What's the worst that happens in this case? They take Smith - well, apparently we wanted him gone. They take Demers or Bjugstad (LOL) - good riddance. They take one of the fringe guys, no big loss (you then move Smith to a team that lost a forward in the expansion draft since you want him gone so badly, retain a bit if necessary). But instead, Tallon had to get clever and the rest is history.

I'm not even saying we should go 8-1 (let's see how this whole group does first over the course of a full season...). This draft will also be different from Vegas (teams will be much less inclined to make stupid trades; not to mention Covid). I haven't really looked at the other clubs and who they might expose so admittedly IDK just how bad the situation at forward is - are there so few options that you go for the 34 year old guy?

And if we did lose Hornqvist, what options does that freed money give us?

It really doesn't matter which option Zito chooses because the difference is that the team in question can protect either 7 top6 forwards or 4 top4 dmen. Well, imo the Cats don't have either covered so I don't think they'll be losing anything significant that they can't recoup via FA. For an instance, if they lose Nutivaara then get Kulikov back at $2mil for one year.

At this point of his career Hornqvist is a PP specialist who's still serviceable in even strength situations as long as Q keeps his shifts short. In theory he should be easily replaceable but not a whole lot of players enjoy spending time in front of the net, taking crosschecks to the lower back.

It's still way too early to tell who should and want to stay with this org especially the teams the Cats have faced so far aren't exactly cream of the crop. Folks put too much emphasis on veteranship in the Cats' current situation where guys like Barkov and Ekblad have to assume the role of leader and not outsource it to Hornqvist, much less to guys like Yandle.

 

[BabyBennettov]

Convince me then that Seattle takes Hornqvist if exposed.
He's been very valuable for us, no argument there. But he's 34, with two more years at 5.3 mill (the salary actually matches the cap in his case), he's been injured a couple times the past few years, it's Covid economy... He is a forward so that makes him more valuable in the expansion draft. Still.

Looking at who Vegas actually took:
Engelland was 35, but he was living in Vegas at the time and they signed him for one year at 2 mill.
Fleury was 32 but a) he was easily the best starter available and b) Pittsburgh paid Vegas a 2nd rounder to take him (yeah that aged well...)
Bellemare was 31 and signed for 2.9 mill/2 years
Garrison was 32 at 4.6 mill and Tampa had to send a 2nd + 4th + Gusev for Vegas to take him.
Stoner (31) was drafted at the cost of adding Shea Theodore.

Again, I'm not denying the value Hornqvist has for us (and not just on-ice). But would he get claimed?

Honestly, going 8-1 in 2017 wouldn't have been so bad if not for the idiotic trade and protecting the wrong guys. If you love the D so much/value the forwards so little, protect Huberdeau, Barkov, Trocheck, Marchesseault, Yandle (NMC), Ekblad, Pysyk/Petro (sigh) and Weegar. You leave exposed Smith (coming off a bad season), Jágr (yeah...), Demers (bad fit, expensive), Jokinen (bad year, UFA), Sceviour (4th liner), the other of Petro/Pysyk, Bjugstad (coming off horrible season, expensive and injury prone) and a couple fringe guys. What's the worst that happens in this case? They take Smith - well, apparently we wanted him gone. They take Demers or Bjugstad (LOL) - good riddance. They take one of the fringe guys, no big loss (you then move Smith to a team that lost a forward in the expansion draft since you want him gone so badly, retain a bit if necessary). But instead, Tallon had to get clever and the rest is history.

I'm not even saying we should go 8-1 (let's see how this whole group does first over the course of a full season...). This draft will also be different from Vegas (teams will be much less inclined to make stupid trades; not to mention Covid). I haven't really looked at the other clubs and who they might expose so admittedly IDK just how bad the situation at forward is - are there so few options that you go for the 34 year old guy?

And if we did lose Hornqvist, what options does that freed money give us?

Hornqvist has been a culture-changer, nearly all of our players and management have said so...

We found a way to get Nuti for Pu, Forsling off waivers, etc...

It's not like those guys have proved to be quality top-4 guys that are not replaceable !

I don't know if Seattle would take Hornqvist, but I would rather keep and protect Vatrano, Verhaeghe, Duclair, Hornqvist, Acciari or whoever we have at forwards than go 8-1 and try to keep Nuti or Forsling or Stralman...

Sometimes it's not about age or production, it's about attitude and culture... Protecting Hornqvist would prove to him and our roster that we value so much what he brings...

But if people here want to go 8-1 so we can protect a fringe top-4 defenseman, it's okay !

I would hate to lose Gudas, and I would rather give a 2nd round pick to Seattle so we can protect one of Gudas or Nuti or Forsling... Rather than going 8-1 and losing a forward like Duclair, Verhaeghe or Vatrano, or even Hornqvist (who I can understand wouldn't be picked because of age, but you never know)...

7-3-1 for me:

- 7 Forwards : Barkov, Huberdeau, Verhaeghe, Duclair, Hornqvist, Vatrano and one of Lammikko, Sarela, Borgstrom, Acciari or even Marchment (hope he gets his shot, I like him and would like to see what he can do)

- 3 Defensemen: Yandle (NMC), Ekblad, Weegar

- 1 Goalie: Bobrovskiy (NMC)

We would lose Montembeault, Stralman, Nutivaara, Gudas, Stillman, Keeper, Forsling, Juulsen or one of the forwards named before, along with Connolly, or even Hinostroza...

That's what I would do, I would rather lose one of those guys than sacrifying one of our forwards IMO

 

[Thomas Colavecchio]

For now that looks reasonable. Then it's Horny, Vatrano and some forward vs Nuti/Gudas. Right now Gudas looks like a player that we don't want to lose, but that also goes for Horny. Maybe Duclair or Verhaeghe will show some flaws later on and could be exposed.

I agree about protecting Gudas, as he is proving to be a valuable addition. From most accounts he seems to be a real positive in the Room...and just maybe KY not being as much of a disaster in the D zone, so far, this year compared to last is Gudas is already proving to be a better and more responsible pairing for him than Brown was last season.