Line Combos: Projecting your 2021-2022 Panthers

[RogerRoger]

We have a few days off so let’s thing expansion draft. I have us going 7-3-1 and I’m assuming NMC are respects

1. Forwards: Barkov, Huberdeau (or is it Laine?). Hornqvist, Duke, Verh, Vatrano, Cookie
   1. Exposed: Connolly, Lommy, Lammy
   2. Exempt: Luo, Tippett, Heponiemi
   3. UFA: Wenny (don’t see us re signing him immediately)
   4. The Vatrano and Acciari pairing are the most likely to be traded off but it’s clear these are guys that Q trusts
2. D: Weegar, Ekblad, Yandle
   1. Exposed: Keeper, Nuti, Stralman, Stillman, Forsling, Gudas, Juulsen
   2. Exempt: Priskie, Gildon, Ludvig
   3. Thoughts: Yands has been great, I like the rest of our D. I’m guessing we lose Nuti or Gudas right not which is sad because they’re high value contracts
3. Goalie: protect Bob (NMC); re sign CD afterwards, expose Monty!

I don't think we'll have the cap space to re-sign CD and it wouldn't surprise me if Seattle pick him up. As it stands right now, CD is the most interesting goalie that will be exposed. I think the situation is similar to Craig Anderson, he was a great backup and someone gave him a shot at a starting position and he made the most out of it.
Also, seeing how dominant Knight has been this season, maybe the front office believes he'll be ready sometimes next season. So a one year stopgap backup would do just fine and that's even more true if Bob's play improve/hold up.

 

[KW]

I don't think we'll have the cap space to re-sign CD and it wouldn't surprise me if Seattle pick him up. As it stands right now, CD is the most interesting goalie that will be exposed. I think the situation is similar to Craig Anderson, he was a great backup and someone gave him a shot at a starting position and he made the most out of it.
Also, seeing how dominant Knight has been this season, maybe the front office believes he'll be ready sometimes next season. So a one year stopgap backup would do just fine and that's even more true if Bob's play improve/hold up.

I’m afraid you’re right about Driegs. I hope they want someone else more, and/or that they remember Vegas getting MAF which drove tickets sales and created confidence, causing them to look elsewhere for G.

I’m not super confident that Knight’s college/U20 level experience translates quickly to pro hockey with faster releases, harder shots, greater amount of deflections, harder driving the net.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

I don't think we'll have the cap space to re-sign CD and it wouldn't surprise me if Seattle pick him up. As it stands right now, CD is the most interesting goalie that will be exposed. I think the situation is similar to Craig Anderson, he was a great backup and someone gave him a shot at a starting position and he made the most out of it.
Also, seeing how dominant Knight has been this season, maybe the front office believes he'll be ready sometimes next season. So a one year stopgap backup would do just fine and that's even more true if Bob's play improve/hold up.

Still think Knight is at least another year away, whether NCAA or AHL before seeing NHL time, we should wait out Bob's deal as much as possible.

Just some of the goalie options for SEA: (age in brackets come next year)

Khudobin (35), unless Bishop waives but considering DAL's recent success, doubtful he waives his NMC.
Khu is older but at $3.3 mil x 2 years, he has shown ability to be a decent 1b option.

Allen (31), 2 years x $2.875 mil, had 3 decent years with STL, 2 "backup" years and slowly turning it back last year in limited action.

Holtby (32), 1 year x $4.3 mil, has the Cup but has declined a fair bit the last 3 years.

Varlamov (33) 2 years x $5 mil, doesn't have great numbers but likely gets exposed because of Sorokin and NYI's cap issues. I wouldn't pick him if I'm SEA, although he is off to a good start so far this year.

Korpisalo or Merzlikins, both are 27 in April, both have one year left but Korpi at $2.8 mil, Merz at $4mil.
Will be interesting to see which one they expose, Korpi has bigger resume but isn't great, Merz has limited resume but may have bigger upside despite bigger caphit.

Driedger (27), very limited resume but extremely impressive numbers. Can definitely see them being interested.
He is the only UFA of this bunch and would count as SEA's selection if they sign him.

Could definitely see them go Khudobin or Allen, one of Driedger/Korpi/Merz and pick 2 other younger AHL prospects

 

[Pigge]

Still think Knight is at least another year away, whether NCAA or AHL before seeing NHL time, we should wait out Bob's deal as much as possible.

Just some of the goalie options for SEA: (age in brackets come next year)

Khudobin (35), unless Bishop waives but considering DAL's recent success, doubtful he waives his NMC.
Khu is older but at $3.3 mil x 2 years, he has shown ability to be a decent 1b option.

Allen (31), 2 years x $2.875 mil, had 3 decent years with STL, 2 "backup" years and slowly turning it back last year in limited action.

Holtby (32), 1 year x $4.3 mil, has the Cup but has declined a fair bit the last 3 years.

Varlamov (33) 2 years x $5 mil, doesn't have great numbers but likely gets exposed because of Sorokin and NYI's cap issues. I wouldn't pick him if I'm SEA, although he is off to a good start so far this year.

Korpisalo or Merzlikins, both are 27 in April, both have one year left but Korpi at $2.8 mil, Merz at $4mil.
Will be interesting to see which one they expose, Korpi has bigger resume but isn't great, Merz has limited resume but may have bigger upside despite bigger caphit.

Driedger (27), very limited resume but extremely impressive numbers. Can definitely see them being interested.
He is the only UFA of this bunch and would count as SEA's selection if they sign him.

Could definitely see them go Khudobin or Allen, one of Driedger/Korpi/Merz and pick 2 other younger AHL prospects

Maybe Samsonov or Vanecek in Washington will be tempting.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

Also, free agent goalies this year are:

Rask - doubtful he wants to move out west and likely retires a Bruin
Andersen - will TOR have room? he could earn a big payday and be a #1 for years to come but will SEA be competitive enough for him
Raanta - could finally get a big payday as well and is a #1 when healthy.
Mrazek - more of a backup option

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

Maybe Samsonov or Vanecek in Washington will be tempting.

Ya for sure, apparently Vanecek is off to a hot start, still think both of these two fall into backup roles right now but could take some attention away from Driedger

 

[violaswallet]

Think it comes down to Connolly, Nuti, Forsling and Gudas.
Feel most may be ok if it was Connolly?
Although my gut feeling is it may be Nuti or Forsling

Stillman, Juulsen, Lammy, Keeper and Monty won't have played enough NHL games to garner enough interest.

I agree: I posted the exposed names that I expect to play in the NHL names this year.

A good season by Stillman or Lammy could
Make them tempting depending on waivers eligibility: adding 30 players means that they’ll need some players for the AHL or cheaper players to counterbalance the big salaries.

I’m expecting Nuti or Stralman as they might show that they’re top 4 D this year!

I don't think we'll have the cap space to re-sign CD and it wouldn't surprise me if Seattle pick him up. As it stands right now, CD is the most interesting goalie that will be exposed. I think the situation is similar to Craig Anderson, he was a great backup and someone gave him a shot at a starting position and he made the most out of it.
Also, seeing how dominant Knight has been this season, maybe the front office believes he'll be ready sometimes next season. So a one year stopgap backup would do just fine and that's even more true if Bob's play improve/hold up.

It will be tight on CD and depends on what he wants: we will have about 1.5M of dead cap going off and I could see him taking 2.5M-3M depending on market for one year!

Our D will stay the same next year and on same contracts except for our 7th (but who knows there). Duke is the only forward in line for an increase but I could see us money balling him given that Deni/Tippett are improving hopefully!

 

[SoupyFIN]

The Vatrano and Acciari pairing are the most likely to be traded off but it’s clear these are guys that Q trusts.

We'd have to trade them during the season though I think, or at least the last expansion draft had some rule that the players you're exposing had to be on your roster at point X of the season. I think it was the trade deadline, but I could be wrong.

 

[violaswallet]

We'd have to trade them during the season though I think, or at least the last expansion draft had some rule that the players you're exposing had to be on your roster at point X of the season. I think it was the trade deadline, but I could be wrong.

Oops: bad English for me.

I meant that they’re the two guys most likely to be exposed out of the forwards I currently protected. I don’t see it because Q trusts them

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

I agree: I posted the exposed names that I expect to play in the NHL names this year.

A good season by Stillman or Lammy could
Make them tempting depending on waivers eligibility: adding 30 players means that they’ll need some players for the AHL or cheaper players to counterbalance the big salaries.

I’m expecting Nuti or Stralman as they might show that they’re top 4 D this year!


It will be tight on CD and depends on what he wants: we will have about 1.5M of dead cap going off and I could see him taking 2.5M-3M depending on market for one year!

Our D will stay the same next year and on same contracts except for our 7th (but who knows there). Duke is the only forward in line for an increase but I could see us money balling him given that Deni/Tippett are improving hopefully!

Stralman at 35 though? Maybe to come in as a mentor?
I wouldn't mind losing his caphit but early on, he's been playing decent hockey so far, one bad game, 5 good games.

Nuti, Driedger and Gudas probably seem appealing to SEA, all for their own benefits.
Connolly is overpaid and not appealing.

Nuti because he's still young enough, could talk re-signing right off the bat with the one year left or could be a good trade piece for them.

Driedger would be a solid and still relatively young backup and wouldn't cost too much money.

Gudas because he's a youngish vet, 2 years at an ideal caphit and seems to be a good locker room guy who brings pain and above average defense

 

[violaswallet]

Stralman at 35 though? Maybe to come in as a mentor?
I wouldn't mind losing his caphit but early on, he's been playing decent hockey so far, one bad game, 5 good games.

Nuti, Driedger and Gudas seem appealing to SEA, all for their own benefits.

Nuti because he's still young enough, could talk re-signing right off the bat with the one year left or could be a good trade piece for them.

Driedger would a solid and still relatively young backup and wouldn't cost too much money.

Gudas because he's a vet, 2 years at an ideal caphit and seems to be a good locker room guy who brings pain

CD would be a pick likely if he had a contract! I don’t see the logic for UFA rights.

I also expect some team will sell off their overpaid but servicablengoalie to Seattle for substantial futures (not us unfortunately)

Stralman gives veteran leadership and if he plays exceptionally well through this season would have a high trade value as a rental for Seattle!

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

CD would be a pick likely if he had a contract! I don’t see the logic for UFA rights.

I also expect some team will sell off their overpaid but servicablengoalie to Seattle for substantial futures (not us unfortunately)

Stralman gives veteran leadership and if he plays exceptionally well through this season would have a high trade value as a rental for Seattle!

Nuti would have more value in my eyes even if Driedger had 1 year left. Engelland was only UFA picked by VGK because he was a Vegas native.

Wondering if VGK offers up a 1st to take on MAF? He seems like such a nice guy that he would be open to it as it's not a huge move away and likely just wants to play some games.
VGK can retain a million or so of the 7 mil total.

True, Stralman may hate being picked though, moving his family across the US for one year and then possibly moved again at deadline but ya never know.

 

[SoupyFIN]

Oops: bad English for me.

I meant that they’re the two guys most likely to be exposed out of the forwards I currently protected. I don’t see it because Q trusts them

I see your point, but both players aren't in our long-term plans and they're easy to replace from UFA. Acciari's declining speed is starting to show and with our increasing competition for center spots, he'll probably play RW full time next year. Vatrano I feel will look for a bigger opportunity through UFA in 2022 or if he's lucky, Seattle picks him.

I'd actually go the 8/1 route.

Barkov
Huberdeau
Hornqvist/Duclair (right now I'd say Hornqvist)
Verhaeghe

Ekblad
Weegar
Nutivaara/Stralman (depends how well Nuti starts playing, Stralman had a small head start)
Gudas

Driedger (depending if Driedger is in our plans or not, should know by then)

Now there's a couple guys missing and I'll explain, this would obviously mean that they'd have to be willing to waive their NMC. I doubt Yandle would be picked and even if he did, that could be a good thing for him I guess, if he cares about that streak so much? Bob zero chance he's getting picked at that cap hit.

Protecting Gudas probably raises a few eyebrows as well, but I've liked him so far and we've missed someone like him (just like Horny) for years, it would suck to lose him after one year. Swap him with Yandle if he's not willing to waive.

 

[Dread Clawz]

I can't see Seattle taking a ufa goalie. They'll have plenty of other good goalies to choose from. I think Judge will re-sign with us. We'll have to give him a couple mil, but I feel the front office recognizes that we have a good thing right now with two good goalies.

 

[Jean Luc Discard]

I see your point, but both players aren't in our long-term plans and they're easy to replace from UFA. Acciari's declining speed is starting to show and with our increasing competition for center spots, he'll probably play RW full time next year. Vatrano I feel will look for a bigger opportunity through UFA in 2022 or if he's lucky, Seattle picks him.

I'd actually go the 8/1 route.

Barkov
Huberdeau
Hornqvist/Duclair (right now I'd say Hornqvist)
Verhaeghe

Ekblad
Weegar
Nutivaara/Stralman (depends how well Nuti starts playing, Stralman had a small head start)
Gudas

Driedger (depending if Driedger is in our plans or not, should know by then)

Now there's a couple guys missing and I'll explain, this would obviously mean that they'd have to be willing to waive their NMC. I doubt Yandle would be picked and even if he did, that could be a good thing for him I guess, if he cares about that streak so much? Bob zero chance he's getting picked at that cap hit.

Protecting Gudas probably raises a few eyebrows as well, but I've liked him so far and we've missed someone like him (just like Horny) for years, it would suck to lose him after one year. Swap him with Yandle if he's not willing to waive.

NMCs gotta be protected so add Yandle and Bob.

 

[kerrabria]

It's pretty straightforward as far as I'm concerned.

Huberdeau, Barkov, Hornqvist, Duclair, Verhaeghe, Acciari, Vatrano
Ekblad, Weegar, Yandle

Hope they take Connolly; so be it if we lose Nutivaara or Stralman a year early.

 

[violaswallet]

It's pretty straightforward as far as I'm concerned.

Huberdeau, Barkov, Hornqvist, Duclair, Verhaeghe, Acciari, Vatrano
Ekblad, Weegar, Yandle

Hope they take Connolly; so be it if we lose Nutivaara or Stralman a year early.

Pretty much why I posted it seems

 

[GermanPanther]

NMCs gotta be protected so add Yandle and Bob.

Maybe that is another argument why they could shop Yandle. The most of the addition looks better, then him also our new Defensman. There is only 1 Way how they pass on you,
give away Picks and maybe a Prospect or Wennberg. Otherwise they have to protect a lot of Players.

Barkov, Huberdeau, Hornqvist, Yandle and Bob.

 

[RogerRoger]

NMCs gotta be protected so add Yandle and Bob.

They can agree to waive their NMC for the draft and be expose.

 

[austropanther]

I see your point, but both players aren't in our long-term plans and they're easy to replace from UFA. Acciari's declining speed is starting to show and with our increasing competition for center spots, he'll probably play RW full time next year. Vatrano I feel will look for a bigger opportunity through UFA in 2022 or if he's lucky, Seattle picks him.

I'd actually go the 8/1 route.

Barkov
Huberdeau
Hornqvist/Duclair (right now I'd say Hornqvist)
Verhaeghe

Ekblad
Weegar
Nutivaara/Stralman (depends how well Nuti starts playing, Stralman had a small head start)
Gudas

Driedger (depending if Driedger is in our plans or not, should know by then)

Now there's a couple guys missing and I'll explain, this would obviously mean that they'd have to be willing to waive their NMC. I doubt Yandle would be picked and even if he did, that could be a good thing for him I guess, if he cares about that streak so much? Bob zero chance he's getting picked at that cap hit.

Protecting Gudas probably raises a few eyebrows as well, but I've liked him so far and we've missed someone like him (just like Horny) for years, it would suck to lose him after one year. Swap him with Yandle if he's not willing to waive.

Spot on analysis IMO.
I don't get why a lot of people put Cookie on their list. He did have a great season last year, but the likelihood of him repeating it are slim to none. Not necessary to protect a 4th line player.

 

[Pigge]

Spot on analysis IMO.
I don't get why a lot of people put Cookie on their list. He did have a great season last year, but the likelihood of him repeating it are slim to none. Not necessary to protect a 4th line player.

He's not a random 4th liner. He leads the team in SH TOI and blocked shots (and second in hits). You don't pick up a Lomberg and stick in there with the same results.

 

[austropanther]

He's not a random 4th liner. He leads the team in SH TOI and blocked shots (and second in hits). You don't pick up a Lomberg and stick in there with the same results.

I absolutely agree that he is not your random 4th liner and I would never compare him to a Lomberg.

Still, even an exceptional 4th liner should not be the priority to be protected for an expansion draft. You can find other players able to do that. Would you have protected Derek MacKenzie??

 

[letsgrowcactus]

Also, free agent goalies this year are:

Rask - doubtful he wants to move out west and likely retires a Bruin
Andersen - will TOR have room? he could earn a big payday and be a #1 for years to come but will SEA be competitive enough for him
Raanta - could finally get a big payday as well and is a #1 when healthy.
Mrazek - more of a backup option

Can't see Mrazek leaving Carolina unless the team doesn't want him anymore - he finally found his groove again after things turned sour in Detroit and is playing behind solid D.

 

[letsgrowcactus]

Lots of new guys so obviously let's see how it looks a few months from now...

Barkov, Huberdeau, Ekblad, Weegar.
Then Bob and Yandle have NMC, any chance they'll wave? I definitely expect them to ask Yandle, not so sure about Bob - really hoping he pulls it together because that's one nightmare scenario on- and off-ice.
Before we're even contemplating going 8-1, what are the chances Seattle takes Hornqvist? On one hand, he's been invaluable as a net presence. OTOH, he'll be 35 on an expensive contract. Then again, Seattle might be a team who doesn't mind that - they'll value the leadership and will be able to take on a few expensive contracts for the time being. But COVID - do they want an expensive contract when they have other, cheaper options? What if he doesn't work out there?

Just don't do any "take Duclair and Verhaeghe to protect Connolly" and we should be fine...

 

[GrumpyKelly]

Lots of new guys so obviously let's see how it looks a few months from now...

Barkov, Huberdeau, Ekblad, Weegar.
Then Bob and Yandle have NMC, any chance they'll wave? I definitely expect them to ask Yandle, not so sure about Bob - really hoping he pulls it together because that's one nightmare scenario on- and off-ice.
Before we're even contemplating going 8-1, what are the chances Seattle takes Hornqvist? On one hand, he's been invaluable as a net presence. OTOH, he'll be 35 on an expensive contract. Then again, Seattle might be a team who doesn't mind that - they'll value the leadership and will be able to take on a few expensive contracts for the time being. But COVID - do they want an expensive contract when they have other, cheaper options? What if he doesn't work out there?

Just don't do any "take Duclair and Verhaeghe to protect Connolly" and we should be fine...

Hornqvist has been money on the PP but zero chance they take a 35 year old with injury history and his contract. I mean if they would it would actually be a huge cap relief for the Panthers.

Plus I think many teams are looking to dump some of their garbage deals on them. They won't have trouble reaching the cap floor and if smart get paid while doing it.