Projecting Murray 3+ Years Forward

[Sidney the Kidney]

Here's the gist:

1. Find players similar to Murray
2. Find teams similar to Pittsburgh
3. Find union of that data set, preserving the weight of that accuracy
4. Form projection by looking at how that union performed in subsequent years, noting the attendant features of the result (variance, etc.)
5. Win respect of posters who accuse you of being a MAF fanboy

The tl;dr for those who really don't want to dig through the slog:

Floor is something similar to Halak, ceiling is something similar to Luongo+/Price. Because of Murray's quick growth curve, the strength of the Penguins, and the low variance in the resulting projections, he is likely to avoid the dropoff of Varlamov/Rask which was informing his floor and therefore expectation is much closer to the ceiling than the floor.

Just out of curiosity, why the drastic change in projection from last year's model to this year's? You were convinced Murray would have a rather average season in his sophomore year (err .. I guess rookie year, but first full year), but now you've got him at or near Vezina numbers going forward.

 

[nbonaddio]

Just out of curiosity, why the drastic change in projection from last year's model to this year's? You were convinced Murray would have a rather average season in his sophomore year (err .. I guess rookie year, but first full year), but now you've got him at or near Vezina numbers going forward.

One was predicated on mostly AHL numbers, the other on a semi-full season of NHL. That's basically it. To be clear: the point of the original post wasn't necessarily to say that he was going to be average, but rather that based on the limited amount of information we had on him, the range of possibilities was very, very wide. People were talking about him based on the playoffs and his AHL progression as a sure-fire stud and at the time, that was very specious. His performance this year obviously narrowed down that range considerably.

With all of that said, I still do very much think that people are going to skeptical of the floor that the model presents. Halak as a worst-case is still pretty good, but I'm sure there are people who will say "He's already better than Halak!". And while that is probably right, dudes like Varlamov, Rask, Lehtonen were better than Halak too and then they found themselves struggling mightily. There is still potential for regression that you have to consider - even without the consideration of exogenous things like rule changes and injuries.

 

[nbonaddio]

So, I wanted to revisit this because I think it's fair to say that this season caught a lot of people by surprise.

In post #120, his 2017-2018 projection was .926/2.17; I don't want to re-hash the algorithm that went into it, but suffice to say that it was both confident in Murray's path and densely clustered around perennial Vezina contender profile. I became curious just how much of an outlier his current .907/2.90 is, so I took that array of comparable performances and basically just laid them out on a bell curve and..

0.13%. He had a 0.13% chance of performing as poorly as he currently is, based on the first two years. Depending on your perspective, that either confirms how much of a freak year this is, or more of an indication that we might not know who the real MM is just yet. (FWIW, I'm on the former.)

Interestingly, or maybe only interesting to me, his top two statistical comparables are Khabibulin 2007 and Ryan Miller 2014, two guys very much on the downside of a moderately above-average career. The third? Price 2012 (age 24-25), which probably represents the ceiling at this point, but obviously a high enough ceiling that we should still be pretty excited.

 

[Ragamuffin Gunner]

band-aid-boy with mediocre stats

 

[xxxxxxxxxxxxxx]

Tough to project when the team has wholly ignored playing hockey without the puck on their stick for the past two full seasons.

He's shown the ability to put up numbers as good as anyone in the league and has been tremendous for stretches in the playoffs. He's also struggled mightily this season. His father's passing might have a big impact on his play as well, which I don't blame him one bit for.

If this team sorts itself out and guys decide to give a shit with regard to playing defensively, I think we'll have a much better view of what kinda goalie Murray is. Right now, it's a pretty rough time to gauge.

 

[Empoleon8771]

band-aid-boy with mediocre stats

Please go become a Vegas fan, everyone here would be happy if you did that.

 

[nbonaddio]

Tough to project when the team has wholly ignored playing hockey without the puck on their stick for the past two full seasons.

I mean, I hate to be this guy, but you could say the same thing about Bylsma-era MAF. That doesn't really feel like a popular narrative around here.

Either way! All that matters is the playoffs and Murray has earned the right of our confidence until proven otherwise. And like I said, his ceiling is still Price 2012, after which he ripped off three straight seasons above .925. Another season of Murray under .915 shifts his comparables to Varlamov 2014 (three-year forward average: .913/2.89) and Mason 2012.

Based on that bifurcation, my gut is that this season is almost a washout, next season will be the ultimate arbiter if he's on a Price-like path, or a Varlamov/Mason-like path. I remain confident.

 

[xxxxxxxxxxxxxx]

I mean, I hate to be this guy, but you could say the same thing about Bylsma-era MAF. That doesn't really feel like a popular narrative around here.

Either way! All that matters is the playoffs and Murray has earned the right of our confidence until proven otherwise. And like I said, his ceiling is still Price 2012, after which he ripped off three straight seasons above .925. Another season of Murray under .915 shifts his comparables to Varlamov 2014 (three-year forward average: .913/2.89) and Mason 2012.

Based on that bifurcation, my gut is that this season is almost a washout, next season will be the ultimate arbiter if he's on a Price-like path, or a Varlamov/Mason-like path. I remain confident.

Big, gigantic difference is that during MAF's struggles, he was letting in goals that no level of play defensively could've stopped.

Murray is allowing goals he should be saving. MAF, at his worst, was single-handedly losing us games/series with historically laughable goals against.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

band-aid-boy with mediocre stats

If you only want to use his last 49 games, with the extenuating circumstance of the death of his father, sure.

The previous 2 years, he and Holtby had the best numbers (regular season plus playoffs) in the league.

 

[Brandinho]

No statistical model can account for the tumultuous season that Murray has had mentally and physically. He'll be fine, there is not a shred of doubt in my mind about that.

 

[Brandinho]

If you only want to use his last 49 games, with the extenuating circumstance of the death of his father, sure.

The previous 2 years, he and Holtby had the best numbers (regular season plus playoffs) in the league.

He doesn't care. You're responding to one of those facebook lunatics who went into histrionics about losing the soul of the team when Vegas claimed Monsieur Rouleau de Baril.

 

[jcbeze]

Murray 100% plays tomorrow night?

 

[KIRK]

band-aid-boy with mediocre stats

And one more cup finals victory than you know who . . .

Murray 100% plays tomorrow night?

Tough call. Ordinarily, I'd say no, but a win would be huge, our backup sucks, and there's a minimum of 6 days off before the playoffs, no?

 

[bambamcam4ever]

So, I wanted to revisit this because I think it's fair to say that this season caught a lot of people by surprise.

In post #120, his 2017-2018 projection was .926/2.17; I don't want to re-hash the algorithm that went into it, but suffice to say that it was both confident in Murray's path and densely clustered around perennial Vezina contender profile. I became curious just how much of an outlier his current .907/2.90 is, so I took that array of comparable performances and basically just laid them out on a bell curve and..

0.13%. He had a 0.13% chance of performing as poorly as he currently is, based on the first two years. Depending on your perspective, that either confirms how much of a freak year this is, or more of an indication that we might not know who the real MM is just yet. (FWIW, I'm on the former.)

Interestingly, or maybe only interesting to me, his top two statistical comparables are Khabibulin 2007 and Ryan Miller 2014, two guys very much on the downside of a moderately above-average career. The third? Price 2012 (age 24-25), which probably represents the ceiling at this point, but obviously a high enough ceiling that we should still be pretty excited.

Does your model take into account the league-wide drop in SV% this year?

 

[vodeni]

Horny leads the league in High danger scoring chances in eleven games played less than McDavid

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

Change the title to 4+ years forward, not gonna put too much stock into this year. Even if he doesnt improve in the playoffs and we lose. It will be frustrating, but Id still expect him to get back to his normal self next season.

Hoping he can reset..get ready for the playoffs by wiping out this season mentally after tomm night. He will have 5-6 days to prepare himself. Starting a whole new season in the playoffs, where hes seen nothing but success in his career so far.

Those first few games will be crucial going forward. He needs to have a solid game or two. Get back into a rhythm, so even when he does have a bad game, he responds with a great one like he always did.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Does your model take into account the league-wide drop in SV% this year?

Does it also take into account Murray's dad passing away, and how that affected his play this year?

Nah. It's easier to just bump a thread whenever Murray struggles, then disappear when Murray plays well.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Trying time for the kid this year, it's crazy to think he's still just a kid really. With what he's done the last 2yrs, and for brief moments this year, I'm not worried about his play.

His injury history though, that does worry me a little and anyone that says that it doesn't worry them is just flat out lying or ignoring it.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Does it also take into account Murray's dad passing away, and how that affected his play this year?

Nah. It's easier to just bump a thread whenever Murray struggles, then disappear when Murray plays well.

You know, it has to be hard on him.

But then I remember Trevor Daley when his mother passed away and I remember him playing some inspired hockey, to honor her, knowing that she is on her death bed. Murray has to channel that loss the same way, honor his father. It has to be tough for sure, everyone handles grief differently of course. But I think Murray is a fighter and when the playoffs start, he'll flip that switch and use it as a motivating factor. I'm sure his Dad wouldn't want to see him get off course from his path of greatness because of this. But whatever happens, it'd be ridiculous to say he's now crap or anything of that sort.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

You know, it has to be hard on him.

But then I remember Trevor Daley when his mother passed away and I remember him playing some inspired hockey, to honor her, knowing that she is on her death bed. Murray has to channel that loss the same way, honor his father. It has to be tough for sure, everyone handles grief differently of course. But I think Murray is a fighter and when the playoffs start, he'll flip that switch and use it as a motivating factor. I'm sure his Dad wouldn't want to see him get off course from his path of greatness because of this. But whatever happens, it'd be ridiculous to say he's now crap or anything of that sort.

I don't think you can compare the situations.

For one, it sounds like Murray's dad was sudden (or at least quick). Daley seemed to know for a while what was going to happen to his mom. Having lost my dad to a heart attack and my grand mother (who I was close with) to an illness, I know how much more shocking to the system the former is because there's literally no time to "prepare". One day they're there and perfectly fine, the next they're not. With my grandma, even though it sucked when she died, I felt like I had closure because I was able to visit her and do the whole say goodbye thing. Never got that chance with my dad.

Second, you have to look at the age thing. Daley was in his thirties when he lost his mom, while Matt's early twenties and barely out of his teens. Again, bringing it back to myself, I had a friend in high school lose his dad. It shook him badly and honestly, he was never the same. While for me, even though I loved my dad like crazy, don't get me wrong, I was an adult and could handle it better than my friend could.

Third, Daley I believe is married and has kids. Murray's still single (or at most, has a gf). You can't underestimate the difference between having a support system of your own family (wife, kids) and being a single guy in a situation like that.

I just think that these are one of those situations where you simply can't expect a person to act the same way that other people do. If it affects Murray to the point his mental focus isn't there, then that's how much it affects him. Just because Daley or whoever else is able to focus better doesn't mean it's as easy as Murray simply flipping a switch and doing the same.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

I don't think you can compare the situations.

For one, it sounds like Murray's dad was sudden (or at least quick). Daley seemed to know for a while what was going to happen to his mom. Having lost my dad to a heart attack and my grand mother (who I was close with) to an illness, I know how much more shocking to the system the former is because there's literally no time to "prepare". One day they're there and perfectly fine, the next they're not. With my grandma, even though it sucked when she died, I felt like I had closure because I was able to visit her and do the whole say goodbye thing. Never got that chance with my dad.

Second, you have to look at the age thing. Daley was in his thirties when he lost his mom, while Matt's early twenties and barely out of his teens. Again, bringing it back to myself, I had a friend in high school lose his dad. It shook him badly and honestly, he was never the same. While for me, even though I loved my dad like crazy, don't get me wrong, I was an adult and could handle it better than my friend could.

Third, Daley I believe is married and has kids. Murray's still single (or at most, has a gf). You can't underestimate the difference between having a support system of your own family (wife, kids) and being a single guy in a situation like that.

I just think that these are one of those situations where you simply can't expect a person to act the same way that other people do. If it affects Murray to the point his mental focus isn't there, then that's how much it affects him. Just because Daley or whoever else is able to focus better doesn't mean it's as easy as Murray simply flipping a switch and doing the same.

No you make good points. I wonder though when Murray was going through this, if the team should have made a trade, given Murray more time to deal with this by adding a veteran back-up after the Niemi fiasco.

 

[Peat]

Does it also take into account Murray's dad passing away, and how that affected his play this year?

Nah. It's easier to just bump a thread whenever Murray struggles, then disappear when Murray plays well.

Maybe I'm being naive, but if he just wanted to knock Murray, why write a post that starts by pointing out this is probably a giant anomaly, restates the case for him having a Price-like career, and finish by predicting a good next season for him? And why wait until know, when he's been struggling pretty much all season?

 

[AverageJoeFan]

Murray 100% plays tomorrow night?

You have at least 4 days of rest before the playoffs start, and there is meaning to the game so I would say yes he will start. Just my guess.

 

[AverageJoeFan]

No one knows what the future holds. I would really like to see Murray have a better defense (same thing I used to think about MAF) in front of him. Murray has made some pretty amazing saves this year and let in some softies. His personal loss along with injury really make me wonder how difficult this year has been. People forget he is only 23!

Last night really showed me something. He stayed calm. Big game and could have lost his shit but he remained calm and believed in the team. As long as he gives us a chance to win, I'm a big fan.

 

[nbonaddio]

Does your model take into account the league-wide drop in SV% this year?

Yes.

Maybe I'm being naive, but if he just wanted to knock Murray, why write a post that starts by pointing out this is probably a giant anomaly, restates the case for him having a Price-like career, and finish by predicting a good next season for him? And why wait until know, when he's been struggling pretty much all season?

This board is a weird place. The initial projections for MM were pretty mediocre, which led people to criticize the original post with an eye towards MAF-ism. Based on his 2017 play, the projections got adjusted up, and everyone was happy. Now in 2018 that his performance has underperformed even relative to the original projections, apparently it's flawed and there's a bunch of excuses as to why.

As you said, I'm still optimistic and as I said, the playoffs are the only thing that ultimately matters. But for whatever reason, people only look for what they want to hear, which is to say no criticism of Murray appears to be allowed. And certainly no pointing out of the hypocrisy of protecting Murray against years of burying MAF.

Next year is the big year. Floor is Steve Mason, ceiling is Price.