Projecting Murray 3+ Years Forward

[Turin]

Well this was a very sobering and depressing bump

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Lmao, this thread is a treat.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Oh, you would like to see that. You can't wait

And more importantly, reasonably, consistently … STABLE! To date this young man is a rock and I look forward to his future work.

This didn't age well.

 

[Ragamuffin Gunner]

I stand by my statement from 2018. Good luck with your next team Matty.

 

[EightyOne]

 

[Honour Over Glory]

*Matt Murray unfollowed you...*

 

[HandshakeLine]

Yeah, I think we can safely say Murray's ceiling is not Price anymore.

 

[Turin]

I wonder what exactly happened. Is it really psychological, or did the game change too much away from his style, or did he just get injured too many times? Or all of the above. The guy was setting records in the AHL and looked really, really good in his time in 16 and 17. He was pretty good in 2019 to be honest though, so I don’t know. Goalies are so frustrating.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Or people overestimated and/or refused to acknowledge the inherent weakness of hockey stats, especially goalie stats, thus setting themselves up for disappointment?

Not to say that all of the stats based analysis here was bad, but I think outside of this thread and on other forums, people really took the wrong lessons from the stat watch.

 

[ImporterExporter]

I wonder what exactly happened. Is it really psychological, or did the game change too much away from his style, or did he just get injured too many times? Or all of the above. The guy was setting records in the AHL and looked really, really good in his time in 16 and 17. He was pretty good in 2019 to be honest though, so I don’t know. Goalies are so frustrating.

Seems to be upstairs in the ole noggin. He started getting exposed on his glove hand (which is horrendous btw) and never rebounded. His dad passed away at a young age and that seemed to impact him considerably.

He has flashed old Murray at times but frankly looks very little like the guy that dominated on back to back winners.

I don't think it's positional play or technical stuff that shit the bed, other than his glove hand. I also think he plays much deeper in the net and that is generally a by product of a goalie who has lost confidence in some/all of his game.

Thanks for the 2 titles Matt, but your time here has come to a close. Good luck in your future endeavors.

 

[Andy99]

It IS positional and playing deeper in the net, but that’s all confidence and the mental part of the game...for whatever reason, that aspect has been fleeting for him the last few years...

 

[ChaosAgent]

Without him, we don't win two cups. Full stop. He forever deserves respect for that.

He's also far from washed -- many elite goaltenders suffered a fallow patch and came through the other side. Carey Price 2013 comes to mind.

He also could have been an asshole about the demotion, fought publicly with management, refused to have a cordial relationship with Jarry, etc.

I actually think he'll be fine. I just don't think it'll be here.

I agree with you that we don't win the two cups without Murray. He deserves all the praise in the world.

However, I don't see him as above-average long-term. We've seen athletes before in highly mental roles/positions (such as goaltender) gain an edge because of the strength of their mental game even if their physical game isn't elite. To me, that was Murray. He was a B- in terms of pure physical talent but an A/A+ between the ears. I think the "between the ears" stuff has fallen off to average and I don't see him getting it back.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

Yeah, I think we can safely say Murray's ceiling is not Price anymore.

I never thought it was. I think Matt Murray is like Corey Crawford. They are nowhere near the prototype. Coaches must hate their style. But they win because they do not quit on shots and seem capable of stealing wins even when peppered.

Stylistically, they are ugly. But they get the job done, which is all that matters.

The only reason why I am in favor of trading Murray this off-season is because of our dire situation at other positions. We need a sniper on the wing, a third-line center, a stabilizing defenseman and a power-play quarterback. I don't see how we will be able to get those four elements AND also keep two potential 1-1A netminders. At least, not our two RFA's.

But to be honest, I would also be for trading Jarry (as much as I like him) IF the return is far better than a Murray trade return and we would be able to both get some of those missing elements AND dump some bad contracts.

I still have confidence in Murray. He played well against Montreal. One questionable goal that Petry shot off his head, but he was probably the reason why Montreal didn't SWEEP us.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Personally, I'd trade Murray just because his vocal boosters are as bad as MAF's were. f***, I'll help him pack.

 

[heysmilinstrange]

I agree with you that we don't win the two cups without Murray. He deserves all the praise in the world.

However, I don't see him as above-average long-term. We've seen athletes before in highly mental roles/positions (such as goaltender) gain an edge because of the strength of their mental game even if their physical game isn't elite. To me, that was Murray. He was a B- in terms of pure physical talent but an A/A+ between the ears. I think the "between the ears" stuff has fallen off to average and I don't see him getting it back.

If Fleury can (mostly) get over his playoff yips, I don't see any reason why Murray can't get his mental game back eventually.

 

[ChaosAgent]

If Fleury can (mostly) get over his playoff yips, I don't see any reason why Murray can't get his mental game back eventually.

I think it's easier with sports psychology to progress from rock bottom to decent than it is to progress from decent to excellent.

But that's maybe just my Jarry bias speaking.

 

[ZeroPucksGiven]

I've noticed MM regressing in terms of his play reading a couple years ago.

My hypothesis is that it's concussion related: your brain doesn't process as quickly after a concussion vs prior

When you know you're slow in reading the play, your technique starts to erode bc you're late. And i'm not talking about the stupid glove hand trope- every goalie in the NHL tends to get beat there

I'm talking about his being late to butterfly, his failure to reduce distance from any potential deflectors in front, his save selection technique and yes playing way too deep in his net.

In short the disease is his play reading. His symptoms show up as poor technique

I hate MM's contract more than I hate MM the player. Corey Crawford could be a solid comparison to MM
But with a team that's a bit older and cap bloated, I'm fine with parting ways and not looking back, much like what we did with MAF

 

[Turin]

I've noticed MM regressing in terms of his play reading a couple years ago.

My hypothesis is that it's concussion related: your brain doesn't process as quickly after a concussion vs prior

When you know you're slow in reading the play, your technique starts to erode bc you're late. And i'm not talking about the stupid glove hand trope- every goalie in the NHL tends to get beat there

I'm talking about his being late to butterfly, his failure to reduce distance from any potential deflectors in front, his save selection technique and yes playing way too deep in his net.

In short the disease is his play reading. His symptoms show up as poor technique

I hate MM's contract more than I hate MM the player. Corey Crawford could be a solid comparison to MM
But with a team that's a bit older and cap bloated, I'm fine with parting ways and not looking back, much like what we did with MAF

Seems plausible, though I’m not sure brain damage of that level is really linked to all concussions, broadly speaking. His technique definitely isn’t as solid any more. As for the glove, it’s true that it’s always a goalies weak spot, but Murray straight up holds his glove wrong a lot of times.

 

[Bumpus]

This didn't age well.

To be fair, the initial analysis failed to include a detailed breakdown of the carb to protein ratio in his daily breakfast.

It’s a common mistake, I’m not surprised it was overlooked.

 

[ChaosAgent]

To be fair, the initial analysis failed to include a detailed breakdown of the carb to protein ratio in his daily breakfast.

It’s a common mistake, I’m not surprised it was overlooked.

The real mistake is eating breakfast period.

 

[ZeroPucksGiven]

Seems plausible, though I’m not sure brain damage of that level is really linked to all concussions, broadly speaking. His technique definitely isn’t as solid any more. As for the glove, it’s true that it’s always a goalies weak spot, but Murray straight up holds his glove wrong a lot of times.

We're very much in the infancy of what we know about concussions, but there appears to be a possible link between them and reflexes
Multiple Concussions: Long-Term Effects and Treatment Options

And I do agree that he occasionally positions his glove incorrectly, but other goalies do as well so I'm not going to necessarily hold that against him in this analysis.

 

[vikingGoalie]

I've noticed MM regressing in terms of his play reading a couple years ago.

My hypothesis is that it's concussion related: your brain doesn't process as quickly after a concussion vs prior

When you know you're slow in reading the play, your technique starts to erode bc you're late. And i'm not talking about the stupid glove hand trope- every goalie in the NHL tends to get beat there

I'm talking about his being late to butterfly, his failure to reduce distance from any potential deflectors in front, his save selection technique and yes playing way too deep in his net.

In short the disease is his play reading. His symptoms show up as poor technique

I hate MM's contract more than I hate MM the player. Corey Crawford could be a solid comparison to MM
But with a team that's a bit older and cap bloated, I'm fine with parting ways and not looking back, much like what we did with MAF

almost what i was saying in 2016. difference being I had hope back then he would regain his form on our team.
I wouldn't say MM is broken and never going to play well. It's impossible to know if the lack of focus on the ice is physical (concussion) or mental. But I do know the time has come to move on. Hopefully it's all mental and a new goalie coach and a new team will help him be successful elsewhere. But no way am I paying him even remotely close to what he was rumored to want (8M/year). It's a risk but I think Jarry/DeSmith can hold down the fort for us. If need be bring in a cheapish vet as the backup. But with the Cap staying flat we just can't afford to pay MM for the level of play that we got.

on a side note, they let all the assistant coaches go, i might've looked at the goalie coach too, ever since MM's guy became "the man" his level of play has dropped, probably coincidence but who knows...

 

[Honour Over Glory]

To be fair, the initial analysis failed to include a detailed breakdown of the carb to protein ratio in his daily breakfast.

It’s a common mistake, I’m not surprised it was overlooked.

He's on that model diet. Bulimic keto I think it's called?

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

This was not a fun thread to read.