Projecting Murray 3+ Years Forward

[nbonaddio]

Had some free time at work, so I took the aforementioned seven statistically significant comparables, and looked at their first year results.

An unweighted average:

Throwing out Schneider - who regressed in the AHL the next season - we're looking about 30 starts, 2.58/.915. I have to believe that's significantly below what fans are currently expecting.

It's interesting that this situation (up and coming prospect goalie does amazingly well in the AHL) has come up and just about every team seems to have reacted how the Pens are planning to react: split starts, with a slight edge to the incumbent.

Of course, the expansion draft is a pretty big wrench.

 

[UnrealMachine]

Had some free time at work, so I took the aforementioned seven statistically significant comparables, and looked at their first year results.

An unweighted average:

Throwing out Schneider - who regressed in the AHL the next season - we're looking about 30 starts, 2.58/.915. I have to believe that's significantly below what fans are currently expecting.

It's interesting that this situation (up and coming prospect goalie does amazingly well in the AHL) has come up and just about every team seems to have reacted how the Pens are planning to react: split starts, with a slight edge to the incumbent.

Of course, the expansion draft is a pretty big wrench.

Again, you can't just look at sv% in a vacuum. That's like trying to compare Lemieux's stats to Crosby's without any adjustment for league-wide scoring. Add to that, you should really be looking at 5on5 sv%, as it is a much more fair measurement between goalies and doesn't punish those whose teams commit more penalties or draw less than the NHL average. That being said:

Lehner 13/14 vs NHL avg sv% = .913/.914
Bernier 10/11 vs NHL avg sv% = .913/.913
Andersen 13/14 vs NHL avg sv% = .923/.914
Mrazek 14/15 vs NHL avg sv% = .918/.915
Allen 14/15 vs NHL avg sv% = .913/.915
Halak 08/09 vs NHL avg sv% = .915/.908

Total avg vs NHL avg sv% = .915/.913

I believe a better conclusion from your analysis is that the average between these goalies is .002 points above the NHL league average. Thankfully, we already know what Murray's first NHL season yielded:

Murray 15/16 vs NHL avg sv% = .930/.915, which was.015 points above the NHL average. My conclusion is that Murray performed better in his first NHL season than anyone from that list, which was not that difficult to reach.

 

[nbonaddio]

Again, you can't just look at sv% in a vacuum. That's like trying to compare Lemieux's stats to Crosby's without any adjustment for league-wide scoring. Add to that, you should really be looking at 5on5 sv%, as it is a much more fair measurement between goalies and doesn't punish those whose teams commit more penalties or draw less than the NHL average. That being said:

Lehner 13/14 vs NHL avg sv% = .913/.914
Bernier 10/11 vs NHL avg sv% = .913/.913
Andersen 13/14 vs NHL avg sv% = .923/.914
Mrazek 14/15 vs NHL avg sv% = .918/.915
Allen 14/15 vs NHL avg sv% = .913/.915
Halak 08/09 vs NHL avg sv% = .915/.908

Total avg vs NHL avg sv% = .915/.913

I believe a better conclusion from your analysis is that the average between these goalies is .002 points above the NHL league average. Thankfully, we already know what Murray's first NHL season yielded:

Murray 15/16 vs NHL avg sv% = .930/.915, which was.015 points above the NHL average. My conclusion is that Murray performed better in his first NHL season than anyone from that list, which was not that difficult to reach.

I really wouldn't consider that to be Murray's first season, which is to say the season *after* achieving the parameters I set in the AHL. As for your other note, I addressed the seasonal thing in my initial caveats, but not the difference between 5v5 vs. overall. Point taken.

Beyond that, I'd be curious to see how you're defining what the "average" GAA is. Even then, you say Murray is an outlier based on what he's shown so far, which I agree with. I'd also say, however, that there's a lot more data that points to him regressing to league average versus not. Again, my goal here isn't to draw any conclusions other than that the jury is still very much out on how Murray will perform, or from what we can realistically expect him to perform. I would warn people against your line of logic, which is to say that because it was .015 above average in his initial season, he is likely to keep that going - there is very little basis based on the comparables to support that.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

I really wouldn't consider that to be Murray's first season, which is to say the season *after* achieving the parameters I set in the AHL. As for your other note, I addressed the seasonal thing in my initial caveats, but not the difference between 5v5 vs. overall. Point taken.

Beyond that, I'd be curious to see how you're defining what the "average" GAA is. Even then, you say Murray is an outlier based on what he's shown so far, which I agree with. I'd also say, however, that there's a lot more data that points to him regressing to league average versus not. Again, my goal here isn't to draw any conclusions other than that the jury is still very much out on how Murray will perform, or from what we can realistically expect him to perform. I would warn people against your line of logic, which is to say that because it was .015 above average in his initial season, he is likely to keep that going - there is very little basis based on the comparables to support that.

The average GAA would be the average goal against per game per team, no? Empty netter would affect that, but I imagine it would be easy enough to subscract them.

 

[UnrealMachine]

I really wouldn't consider that to be Murray's first season, which is to say the season *after* achieving the parameters I set in the AHL. As for your other note, I addressed the seasonal thing in my initial caveats, but not the difference between 5v5 vs. overall. Point taken.

Well, technically Murray did play his first NHL season after achieving those AHL parameters. In this case, he simply did both in the same season. Not sure how exactly you addressed the differences in league-wide sv% over the years?

Beyond that, I'd be curious to see how you're defining what the "average" GAA is. Even then, you say Murray is an outlier based on what he's shown so far, which I agree with. I'd also say, however, that there's a lot more data that points to him regressing to league average versus not. Again, my goal here isn't to draw any conclusions other than that the jury is still very much out on how Murray will perform, or from what we can realistically expect him to perform. I would warn people against your line of logic, which is to say that because it was .015 above average in his initial season, he is likely to keep that going - there is very little basis based on the comparables to support that.

I don't put any stock at all in GAA, since the average G is different for every goalie. When the best team in the league gives up 27 shots/game and the worst gives up 33, there is no way one can reasonably ignore that 20%+ difference and honestly believe they are comparing apples to apples.

I also never said that my conclusion is for Murray to forever put up .930. My only point was that he is outplaying his comparables right out of the gate, and it continued through the playoffs all the way to the Stanley Cup. At this point, his performance stands out far beyond those comparables and no one is going to confuse him for Mrazek or Bernier. I just don't see the value in ignoring his first season and pretending next season is the real start to his NHL career. He has already played 34 NHL games.

 

[Coach Travis]

Scouting notes on Murray, even going back before he was drafted to the OHL, mention his mental strength as his greatest asset. Lots of mentions of "maturity beyond his years". There are still some rough edges to Matt's game, especially when it comes to lateral movement, and some hand work IMO. So the fact that he can backstop a team to a Stanley Cup and pull off the Herculean season that he did in the AHL, and he's still technically a Rookie, leaves me very encouraged about what he's going to develop into.

 

[Brandinho]

Scouting notes on Murray, even going back before he was drafted to the OHL, mention his mental strength as his greatest asset. Lots of mentions of "maturity beyond his years". There are still some rough edges to Matt's game, especially when it comes to lateral movement, and some hand work IMO. So the fact that he can backstop a team to a Stanley Cup and pull off the Herculean season that he did in the AHL, and he's still technically a Rookie, leaves me very encouraged about what he's going to develop into.

Well said. He needs work on lateral quickness, which can absolutely be improved through training, and some technique work. Those are both areas that I have a lot of faith in him improving, particularly with Bales on the staff. If there's one thing that you can't necessarily improve, it's how you mentally process the game and Murray has zero issues in that department.

 

[Rectify]

Rewatching a lot of the finals the past few days, Murray has a lot of room to grow. He needs to work on a few aspects of his game but most noticeably is his glove hand. I think he has a better glove hand than most want to give him credit for, still needs work though.

Another aspect I've noticed is he drops deep into the butterfly on too many occasions. It really reminds me of a young Bobrovsky(sp?) when he drops to his knees his chest dips down close to the ice. Bobs has fixed that part of his game though so I'm not really worried about it, but his chest shouldn't be moving when he drops to the ice.

Very fixable issues, still can't believe how well he's done to this point in his career.

 

[WayneSid9987]

Yea, i mean the concensus would be he could be a star with improvments/results.
But he'll probably settle in between avg. to slightly above that.

You don't need a star G to win though so it's all good.

 

[Darth Vitale]

I will go off the reservation and say the Penguins starter.

I make no predictions of awards or other accomplishments, for the Mojo Spirits tell me not to.

 

[UnrealMachine]

2016-2017 Reg season:
Murray: .923
NHL: .913

2016-2017 Playoffs:
Murray: .937
NHL: .920

 

[madinsomniac]

Here is the problem... its not like all those goalies played in simular systems... look at the Pens fluctuation on defense the past year plus... while it could be worse, Murray hasn't played behind a great defense yet... with a single year it's really hard to make any nhl predictions at all...

 

[Jaded-Fan]

I kind of hate comparing goalies because so much depends on the team around them, systems, etc.

That said, the best things about Murray can not really be easily quantified. The best way to put it is that he just calms down a team and game. He knows when to freeze puck so you rarely see the keystone cops scrambling that we grew so used to with Fleury. The entire team plays better in front of him. Like a great pitcher or QB he just takes control of a game all by himself. He exudes confidence and calmness.

The things that he needs to work on he can work on, but those things above can not be taught.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Moral of the story: It's probably not the best way to project Murray's next 3 seasons by comparing him to inferior goalies and what they did. It would be like trying to project what Auston Matthews will do in his sophomore year by comparing what Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Nail Yakupov did in theirs because they were also former 1st overall picks.

Murray's numbers, in particular his save percentage, surpassed what the OP stated "is little to no reason to believe that MM will be a .920/2.20 goalie his first full year in the NHL".

 

[mpp9]

The style we play is unlikely to be conducive to Murray winning a Vezina, but as long as he keeps playing like Grant Fuhr in the playoffs, good for us.

 

[Malkinstheman]

The scary thing is, he still has so much room to improve at only 23. Really looking forward too how he progresses.

 

[Peat]

Moral of the story: It's probably not the best way to project Murray's next 3 seasons by comparing him to inferior goalies and what they did. It would be like trying to project what Auston Matthews will do in his sophomore year by comparing what Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Nail Yakupov did in theirs because they were also former 1st overall picks.

Murray's numbers, in particular his save percentage, surpassed what the OP stated "is little to no reason to believe that MM will be a .920/2.20 goalie his first full year in the NHL".

Comparing a comparison of guys based on their AHL numbers with a comparison of guys with their draft pick is a really bad comparison.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Comparing a comparison of guys based on their AHL numbers with a comparison of guys with their draft pick is a really bad comparison.

No, they're equally bad because you're not comparing talent levels with either comparison.

It was a flawed methodology because it assumed that all AHL goalies are equal, and thus you can pick Goalie X's AHL stats and first three years of NHL stats to get an idea of how Goalie Y would do, ignoring the fact that not all those goalies were of equal talent or potential.

 

[BrookswasHere44]

Projecting Murray 3+ years from now....AT LEAST 2 time cup winner. Sounds good

 

[Dread Pirate Roberts]

So, the "Murray is a statistical outlier" theory is looking stronger.

 

[thecore]

i think statistical models for goalies are really tough. I would be curious to see how Corsi and Fenwick translate. I would be more interested in comparing draft year for each league rather than the AHL, due to how many top prospects skip it

 

[Shrimper]

2016-2017 Reg season:
Murray: .923
NHL: .913

2016-2017 Playoffs:
Murray: .937
NHL: .920

Murray is currently sixth in playoff SV% history. Smaller sample size though

 

[3074326]

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say he's going to be the best goalie in the league.

He's literally outperformed all of the best goalies in the league in the playoffs already in his career.

And most importantly, he has given no indication whatsoever that he's on some hot streak. He's been ****ing good since game 1.

 

[Ziggyjoe21]

What point is the OP trying to make? It would be a significant downgrade from MM to anyone on that last sans maybe Schneider.

MM was literally the best playoff goalie this year and a top 10 regular season goalie. He is money in the playoffs and was good in his rookie reg season. He is beyond his AHL days.

 

[UnderratedBrooks44]

What point is the OP trying to make?

That stats can accurately predict the future, right now. That's what this always amounts to. Meanwhile back in reality, we're a ways off yet.