Rumor: Progress on Mantha deal being made - shorter term than anticipated?

[BinCookin]

Ras is almost certainly not an NHL C. ......

Ras has not done all that well yet. But throwing him into the 3rd line in the NHL at 19 I thought was a mistake.
I always think rushing prospects is a mistake.
Not an NHL C? Come on man, he certainly is good on FO's and has size. He can very easily be an NHL C. It might be a 3rd or 4th line C, but that's still a C.

P.S. If your point is we suck at drafting when we picked Svechnikov/Rasmussen... You have a point, neither have worked out yet, but I think people would be higher on Rasmussen if he was kept down, and put up good numbers, vs putting up crap numbers in a crap role.

I have not written him off yet. BUT I do enjoy Yzerman signing vets for all the positions on our team. We don't need ANY prospects to make the team to ice a "OK" Roster. So Svechnikov and Rasmussen better bring it this year if they want to be in the NHL. Svechnikov's last chance I think.

 

[BinCookin]

Byfield and Stutzl are centers, though.

Yes they are. And its the reason we are all pissed about the Lottery.

That being said... the top C (real centre) left was Rossi.

So if Rossi turns into a star we picked wrong.
If Raymond turns into a better player, than I am fine with the pick on W.

To be clear, before the draft I wanted Raymond. I also remember TZE being very against choosing Rossi at #4.
I think maybe in years from now, we will be complaining about not picking Askarov or Drysdale/Sanderson vs Rossi at #4...

But it is what it is. We have Raymond. He is supposed to be quite good. Seems like a better prospect than Zadina was at the time in his year.

I don't expect success from any of these names though. I will be happy if any of them end up being 2nd line talent.
I think our team can win with 9 2nd liners on good deals. We don't need a superstar... But we really cant be striking out with these high picks either.

 

[19 for president]

You can spend most of your cap on a few players if you lock in the right positions, draft well, and are willing to deal middling players before they cash in. Basically you need two centers and a dman or two. You don't spend on wingers unless they are Kucherov/Ovy/ Kane level. I also personally don't think you spend max dollars on goalies either, as they typically tend to be more hot/cold season to season than dmen. It is an option though to go Center/Center/Dman/Goalie as your big spends.

Basically I really like the way Boston built their team. You go for elite 2 way play and elite dmen rather then elite scoring. Scoring costs too much on average unless you luck into having like top 20 all time talent in the way the Pens did with Crosby and Malkin. So I'd rather have the 70 pt center who is also elite defensively than the 90pt winger. You also can't pay your 75 pt center like they are Crosby either... ahem Toews ahem. There is zero reason that Toews should make 3 mil more per year than Bergeron. He also flatly doesn't deserve as much as Kane got.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Would you have preferred we took Sanderson / Rossi or Drysdale this year??

Because that was our choice.

Be Specific so you can look back on your choices.

He was the biggest Sanderson supporter on the entire site. He’s doubled down in this repeatedly, and he’s certainly not hiding from it.

 

[Martinez]

Next draft is C and D heavy, there’s nothing to argue about here

 

[njx9]

Not an NHL C? Come on man, he certainly is good on FO's and has size. He can very easily be an NHL C. It might be a 3rd or 4th line C, but that's still a C.

I don't really see it in his play. You're 100% right in noting his age and issues in development plans (and I'll happily eat many hats if he spends the next few years proving me wrong), but I have a hard time buying him as more than a 3rd line wing, at this point.

I also really, for once, agree that the vets are a good move. Keeping Nyquist in GR till he was 24, I think, was a terrible mistake, but keeping Ras somewhere he can learn while he's 21 bothers me less. We don't, really, have any superstars that are being held back, at this point.

 

[Tetsuo]

Ras has not done all that well yet. But throwing him into the 3rd line in the NHL at 19 I thought was a mistake.
I always think rushing prospects is a mistake.
Not an NHL C? Come on man, he certainly is good on FO's and has size. He can very easily be an NHL C. It might be a 3rd or 4th line C, but that's still a C.

P.S. If your point is we suck at drafting when we picked Svechnikov/Rasmussen... You have a point, neither have worked out yet, but I think people would be higher on Rasmussen if he was kept down, and put up good numbers, vs putting up crap numbers in a crap role.

I have not written him off yet. BUT I do enjoy Yzerman signing vets for all the positions on our team. We don't need ANY prospects to make the team to ice a "OK" Roster. So Svechnikov and Rasmussen better bring it this year if they want to be in the NHL. Svechnikov's last chance I think.

Remember that there were no better options. He was destroying the dub in his D+1 year so its not like he had anything to learn in Juniors. He's one of the players absolutely screwed by the CHL-NHL agreement because he couldn't play at the level he needed to be (the AHL).

Agreed with the rest of this post yet, it's still too early to say that Ras or Svech are busts, though Svech is in a make-it-or-break it year. I would also throw Cholo in that tier as well.

 

[Winger98]

Yes they are. And its the reason we are all pissed about the Lottery.

That being said... the top C (real centre) left was Rossi.

So if Rossi turns into a star we picked wrong.
If Raymond turns into a better player, than I am fine with the pick on W.

To be clear, before the draft I wanted Raymond. I also remember TZE being very against choosing Rossi at #4.
I think maybe in years from now, we will be complaining about not picking Askarov or Drysdale/Sanderson vs Rossi at #4...

But it is what it is. We have Raymond. He is supposed to be quite good. Seems like a better prospect than Zadina was at the time in his year.

I don't expect success from any of these names though. I will be happy if any of them end up being 2nd line talent.
I think our team can win with 9 2nd liners on good deals. We don't need a superstar... But we really cant be striking out with these high picks either.

I was for Raymond, sort of. I thought Drysdale would probably be the safest pick, Askarov the biggest home run. From what I saw of Perfetti, I wasn't real high on him. I wasn't a fan of Rossi, I don't think he has the tools to stick at center and if we're picking a wing, I trust Raymond more to make it big there. Picking 4th, though...I agree we can't strike out and that we can (and will need to, most likely) build a team without that elite talent. I also think we're closer to that than we are from it.

In four years, I don't think I'll be able to work up the energy to be really down on who we picked because I just see it as such a crapshoot at that point. Fire a couple of scouts and move on.

edit: just to throw a couple of pennies into the dicussion, I think Svech looked good when he got a chance last year, and has looked good in the past. the knee injury has just thrown a cold towel over him, though. It sucks.

from the reports I've seen, Ras looked good in GR at center, playing a big role last year. I agree about part of the issue was his being forced into the NHL too early, but I'm not sure juniors was a better option. Just screwed by that stupid rule when he should have been in GR that year.

 

[BinCookin]

I think Svech looked good when he got a chance last year, and has looked good in the past. the knee injury has just thrown a cold towel over him, though. It sucks.

from the reports I've seen, Ras looked good in GR at center, playing a big role last year. I agree about part of the issue was his being forced into the NHL too early, but I'm not sure juniors was a better option. Just screwed by that stupid rule when he should have been in GR that year.

Ya I mean I'd have been fine with 1 more year in Juniors. ONLY you tell him, we want to see FOW, more PKing, better +/- etc etc. Have him work on other parts of his game. I know the league is crap vs men... but the NHL is a tough spot to be in. I think having people fail at the NHL level is always bad for their confidence and mental attitude. Id much prefer to see him "not learn much" but build even more confidence at a lower level.

Then D+2 year in the AHL.

Then if hes good enough D+3 NHL.

I don't ever want to ice a kid because we have "no options". There is always a player we could sign to play in the NHL who is an OK vet.

Also on the plus side.
Svech is healthy and looking forward to this year. I am really rooting for both these guys to do well.
They have all the tools to both be NHL players.

 

[MBH]

Would you have preferred we took Sanderson / Rossi or Drysdale this year??

Because that was our choice.

Be Specific so you can look back on your choices.

Yes.
Sanderson was my choice. LD.
I like Raymond.
But centers and defense are the premium.
You build down the middle.
And if you a D or C, you're going to get a better return.

 

[MBH]

2013: Mantha (W)
2014: Larkin (C)
2015: Svechnikov (W)
2016: Cholowski (D)
2017: Rasmussen (C)
2018: Zadina (W), Veleno (C)
2019: Seider (D)
2020: Raymond (W)

3 C, 4 W, 2 D

Maybe if they take a winger with their top-five pick next year, I could see a problem. So far? Nothing troubling.

Also, Yzerman traded Drouin for Sergachev.

I don't think Rasmussen will be a very good C.
And Veleno - wasn't our top pick.

Your top pick represents how you value things.
I'd go like this:
2013: Mantha (W)
2014: Larkin (C)
2015: Svechnikov (W)
2016: Cholowski (D)
2017: Rasmussen (W)
2018: Zadina (W),
2019: Seider (D)
2020: Raymond (W)

1C
5W
1LD
1RD

And for our LD? We traded down and then reached quite a bit. Fortunately, that resulted in us getting Hronek, who makes up for what's been a disappointing career by Cholowski.

 

[jkutswings]

I don't think Rasmussen will be a very good C.
And Veleno - wasn't our top pick.

Your top pick represents how you value things.
I'd go like this:
2013: Mantha (W)
2014: Larkin (C)
2015: Svechnikov (W)
2016: Cholowski (D)
2017: Rasmussen (W)
2018: Zadina (W),
2019: Seider (D)
2020: Raymond (W)

1C
5W
1LD
1RD

And for our LD? We traded down and then reached quite a bit. Fortunately, that resulted in us getting Hronek, who makes up for what's been a disappointing career by Cholowski.

All the more reason to finally land a top 2-3 pick and get exactly who they want, instead of the best of the rest. Fingers crossed...

 

[Henkka]

I don't think Rasmussen will be a very good C.

1C
5W
1LD
1RD

Rasmussen is a center, so it is:

2C
4W
1LD
1RD

Just don't try to push your 2nd reality on things.

 

[MBH]

Rasmussen is a center, so it is:

2C
4W
1LD
1RD

Just don't try to push your 2nd reality on things.

Rasmussen has played how many NHL games at Wing.
Vs NHL games at C?

Right from day one, there have been questions about whether or not Rasmussen was an NHL center.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Rasmussen has played how many NHL games at Wing.
Vs NHL games at C?

Right from day one, there have been questions about whether or not Rasmussen was an NHL center.

Hey, uh, how many games did Larkin play at center in his rookie year again?

 

[Henkka]

They expect Rasmussen to be a center.

https://thehockeywriters.com/red-wings-rasmussen-ahl-top-center/

All this hoarding of midget wingers shows the direction, that it will be some of those bigger guys in the middle and skill+speed on wing. Söderblom and Rasmussen both fit on the bill. Of course Larkin and Veleno/Niederbach are opposite, but every future line is not projected to be constructed same way. Great mix is the best tight compeition. Have tools for the coach.

Mike Babcock talking about how he need bigger guys matched against opposite team bigger guys is still a thing, and Team like St. Louis did win the Cup with ROR as a center. Hawks have had Toews/Anisimov/Handzus -type of centers on their Cup Teams and skill on wing. Traditional skating/skill/defensive center is not the only option to build winning teams, if you watch hockey.

 

[ricky0034]

Rasmussen's offensive game has always been much better suited for the Wing than at Center

there's no reason he CAN'T be a Center but his offensive potential would be much more limited there and it's likely the difference between being a career bottom 6 guy or maybe being a top 6 guy

ultimately in the long run he'll slot in on the Wing for those reasons

 

[jkutswings]

All this hoarding of midget wingers shows the direction, that it will be some of those bigger guys in the middle and skill+speed on wing.

I've seen you use this phrase, "midget wingers" several times. If we go back to the high draft picks the last few posts have referenced:

Raymond - 5'11"
Zadina - 6'0"
Svechnikov - 6'3"
Mantha - 6'4"

I wouldn't exactly call that midget wingers.

I think Detroit is drafting for talent, and size at this position versus that position isn't a factor.

 

[Henkka]

I've seen you use this phrase, "midget wingers" several times. If we go back to the high draft picks the last few posts have referenced:

Raymond - 5'11"
Zadina - 6'0"
Svechnikov - 6'3"
Mantha - 6'4"

I wouldn't exactly call that midget wingers.

I think Detroit is drafting for talent, and size at this position versus that position isn't a factor.

And then there's Fabbri, Berggren, Brome, Kivenmäki, Tuytyayev, Timashov, Hirose, Raymond.

Especially all young Yzerman era wingers (Fabbri, Brome, Timashov, Hirose, Raymond) he has brought on the team seem to be playmaking "midget" wingers. Like he had some of them already, and he has been hoarding them more. I don't mean it anyhow negative, I just see it as a building plan. Size in the middle and skill/speed on the wing. To build lines which will have material to work together. Espcially the bottom6 is gonna be on that directions, if Ramussen and Söderblom are those centers. Top6 could be opposite, because Mantha changes everything opposite, and we have smaller centers to insert there.

Tampa SC winning team was kind of same. Small-sized skill on offence and huge-sized defence. That's what they are drafting too. Sending midget defencemen out, like Saarijärvi. Pretty much he is building same pattern, but we have also those huge forwards on the prospect core already.

 

[jkutswings]

I guess I just see the vast majority of the wingers you listed as placeholders instead of significant pieces, so I don't necessarily take anything away from the list in terms of strategy.

 

[haulinbass]

Ras has not done all that well yet. But throwing him into the 3rd line in the NHL at 19 I thought was a mistake.
I always think rushing prospects is a mistake.
Not an NHL C? Come on man, he certainly is good on FO's and has size. He can very easily be an NHL C. It might be a 3rd or 4th line C, but that's still a C.

P.S. If your point is we suck at drafting when we picked Svechnikov/Rasmussen... You have a point, neither have worked out yet, but I think people would be higher on Rasmussen if he was kept down, and put up good numbers, vs putting up crap numbers in a crap role.

I have not written him off yet. BUT I do enjoy Yzerman signing vets for all the positions on our team. We don't need ANY prospects to make the team to ice a "OK" Roster. So Svechnikov and Rasmussen better bring it this year if they want to be in the NHL. Svechnikov's last chance I think.

I agree. Big difference between Holland signing vets for 6 year deals and log jamming our rosters for years opposed to Yzerman going year-to-year and assessing player developments. Much rather keep these kids in the proper leagues and let them continue to develop.

 

[haulinbass]

Yes they are. And its the reason we are all pissed about the Lottery.

That being said... the top C (real centre) left was Rossi.

So if Rossi turns into a star we picked wrong.
If Raymond turns into a better player, than I am fine with the pick on W.

To be clear, before the draft I wanted Raymond. I also remember TZE being very against choosing Rossi at #4.
I think maybe in years from now, we will be complaining about not picking Askarov or Drysdale/Sanderson vs Rossi at #4...

But it is what it is. We have Raymond. He is supposed to be quite good. Seems like a better prospect than Zadina was at the time in his year.

I don't expect success from any of these names though. I will be happy if any of them end up being 2nd line talent.
I think our team can win with 9 2nd liners on good deals. We don't need a superstar... But we really cant be striking out with these high picks either.

Can we win with 9x 2nd liners though? 2nd liners cost 5-6.5 mill each now days, the math doesn't allow much cap room for D, G and line 4. Obviously there is some middle ground here but just for sake of making strong points I'll look at it from the most extreme vanish point of your idea.

2nd line caliber players also are much more unpredictable to manage long-term. Their peaks are shorter and their drop-off window seems to come much sooner and unpredictably than that of an elite player. You likely end up stuck in some bad contracts in this scenario. Especially once certain players end up towards the bottom of that 9 forward depth chart (inevitable and that won't take long for that to play out) and get less ice time and key situations as a result of this reality. Players end up unhappy and possibly demanding trades due to them losing money by not having the opportunity to perform to their potential, some possibly losing confidence and even regressing.

In my opinion, that is not an ideal way to build a team. It is possible to have some short-term and of course even long-term success using a method like this. But most teams with long-term success have superstars somewhere. If you don't have them up front you better have them on the back end. Obviously you don't necessarily need a Crosby, but you need to have a couple high end players. Right now, we don't have anyone who can for sure fill that role anywhere in our lineup or prospect pool.

 

[BinCookin]

Can we win with 9x 2nd liners though? 2nd liners cost 5-6.5 mill each now days, the math doesn't allow much cap room for D, G and line 4. Obviously there is some middle ground here but just for sake of making strong points I'll look at it from the most extreme vanish point of your idea.

2nd line caliber players also are much more unpredictable to manage long-term. Their peaks are shorter and their drop-off window seems to come much sooner and unpredictably than that of an elite player. You likely end up stuck in some bad contracts in this scenario. Especially once certain players end up towards the bottom of that 9 forward depth chart (inevitable and that won't take long for that to play out) and get less ice time and key situations as a result of this reality. Players end up unhappy and possibly demanding trades due to them losing money by not having the opportunity to perform to their potential, some possibly losing confidence and even regressing.

In my opinion, that is not an ideal way to build a team. It is possible to have some short-term and of course even long-term success using a method like this. But most teams with long-term success have superstars somewhere. If you don't have them up front you better have them on the back end. Obviously you don't necessarily need a Crosby, but you need to have a couple high end players. Right now, we don't have anyone who can for sure fill that role anywhere in our lineup or prospect pool.

I look at it like this:

TML general structure:

10M-10M-10M
5M-5M-5M
1M-1M-1M
1M-1M-1M

(Cost of the forward lines). This is how Chicago had to build after their cups. This is generally how Toronto is built now.

I kinda like the :

5M-5M-5M
5M-5M-5M
5M-5M-5M
1M-1M-1M

Set up better.

Now this may be very hard to do, because you would need all these players to actually contribute at their cost. You cant have a Neilsen and a Ladd or an Eriksson in this mix. You need them all to produce.

I guess my point was, if you don't have a McDavid or an Eichel. (Lack of a 10M superstar)... Than I think you CAN still win... You just need more 5M guys.

IMO these are tthe players we have that currently slot into my "2nd line talent" slots:
Mantha/Larkin/Bertuzzi.
So we have 3/9. with maybe 2-4 prospects capable of getting there already drafted. Maybe in 2-3 years we can sign 2 more 5M UFA's and complete this "playoff caliber" team.

P.S. any contract can back fire. Skinner is paid like a superstar... and just sucked badly for Buffalo.
Sure we could sign some guys at 5M and they fail... well than we are like every other team that fails (which is most of them).
Im just saying if you look at this from a successful point of view. I think we could build a winner with 9 5M forwards. Assuming they all earn their cap hit. and maybe a few are underpaid.

PPS an example is the 2006 Buffalo Sabres:
2005-06 Buffalo Sabres Roster and Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com
2005-2006 NHL Hockey Standings

 

[Winger98]

so, Reinhart just signed 1 yr, $5.2m. It would seem like that should be right around what Mantha should command.

 

[Henkka]

so, Reinhart just signed 1 yr, $5.2m. It would seem like that should be right around what Mantha should command.

Maybe Yzerman chops 20% off from that figure like he did with Bertuzzi deal.