Rumor: Progress on Mantha deal being made - shorter term than anticipated?

[jkutswings]

But truthfully, I'm not convinced either guy makes it to Mantha's PPG from last year.
I suspect Mantha could have difficulty reaching that level again.

That surprises me. 38 points in 43 games is 0.88PPG, which is a 72 point pace.
3 years from now, that's about where I see Zadina.
I see Raymond at or above 80 points.
I see Mantha (now 29) in the 60-65 range, still missing a few games here and there.

But who knows.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

I would argue if Zadina and Raymond make the NHL and work as planned... they are both on line 1, lowering Mantha's minutes, and thus his stats. Do I think Mantha is the top line winger in 4-6 years.... I don't know, and I think there is a fair chance we drafted 2 better wingers already.

If Zadina and Raymond both pan out and Mantha is still on the team, I expect he'd be paired with one and Bertuzzi the other.

Mantha's size and Bertuzzi's grit makes sense with the skill of Zadina and Raymond.

 

[jkutswings]

If Zadina and Raymond both pan out and Mantha is still on the team, I expect he'd be paired with one and Bertuzzi the other.

Mantha's size and Bertuzzi's grit makes sense with the skill of Zadina and Raymond.

Zadina - Barkov - Raymond
Mantha - Larkin - Bertuzzi

Dare to dream.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Zadina - Barkov - Raymond
Mantha - Larkin - Bertuzzi

Dare to dream.

Exactly, offseason 2022. Throw $10m x 6-7yrs @ Barkov & $9m x 7 yrs to Werenski. The following season reup Larkin @ $9m x 7yrs.

Mantha-Bert & Zadina-Raymond should all be in their prime by then (if not already).

Raymond-Barkov-Mantha
Bert-Larkin-Zadina
Fabbri-Veleno-Berggren
xx-Ras-xx

 

[Henkka]

Where is Laine!

Laine - Barkov - Raymond.

I'd prefer that.

 

[ArmChairGM89]

Sure. "Flirt" is not the part of the post I was trying to draw attention to. I'll put it more succinctly. His goal-scoring rate that year and last year was 30.5 and 30.6 goals-per-82-games. So, if healthy, he should be "around" 30 goals.

They were his second and third full seasons. And he had to come back from injury in both. To call that his consistent ceiling at his Healthy peak seems to stead away from the evidence. The evidence being that’s how he’s performing in his first years while being off injured.

 

[jkutswings]

Where is Laine!

Laine - Barkov - Raymond.

I'd prefer that.

To each his own. But if Barkov (let alone Larkin and maybe even Werenski) are getting paid, I'd rather take Zadina on his deal than Laine on his.

 

[Winger98]

To each his own. But if Barkov (let alone Larkin and maybe even Werenski) are getting paid, I'd rather take Zadina on his deal than Laine on his.

If Laine can be had affordably right now, I'd rather have him in the fold and have to make other moves later than have none of them.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

I think it will be a 4 year at 6mill av

Looks and sounds about right.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

$9-10m ? for a 1-dimensional W that doesn't drive possession is how you cripple a franchise (after cost of acquisition).

EDIT: referring to Laine!

 

[jkutswings]

If Laine can be had affordably right now, I'd rather have him in the fold and have to make other moves later than have none of them.

Again, to each their own. Maybe I'm more positive on Zadina than most, but in a few years I don't see much difference between his point totals and Laine's, and Zadina brings other things to the table.

Laine is obviously the superior player at the moment. But if the plan is to make 1-2 major trade/free agency splashes, I would MUCH rather do that at center and defense, and when the kids are ready, versus dropping $9-10M AAV on a winger now, knowing that the first 2-3 years of that mega deal will be more "getting ready" than "making hay".

 

[raymond23]

$9-10m ? for a 1-dimensional W that doesn't drive possession is how you cripple a franchise (after cost of acquisition).

Doesn't drive possession? You can't be serious...

 

[jkutswings]

Doesn't drive possession? You can't be serious...

Laine is arguably the best player in the league at scoring goals.

During the 10 percent of his ice time when he's generating scoring chances. It's the rest of the time that's the issue.

Did he improve that disparity this past season? Some claim that he did. But if I'm shelling out that type of coin over that many years, I want a guy that can tilt the ice for an entire series, and I don't know that Laine will ever round out his game quite enough to do that.

 

[raymond23]

Laine is arguably the best player in the league at scoring goals.

During the 10 percent of his ice time when he's generating scoring chances. It's the rest of the time that's the issue.

Did he improve that disparity this past season? Some claim that he did. But if I'm shelling out that type of coin over that many years, I want a guy that can tilt the ice for an entire series, and I don't know that Laine will ever round out his game quite enough to do that.

Oh shoot, I thought we were talking Mantha. Plz ignore me lol

 

[raymond23]

I'm not all that concerned with Bert either.

If Mantha shreds it the next couple years as we all hope he does and he is certainly capable of, the thing is you're not getting him for 7 million anymore at that point. If he banks 40 goal seasons in the next two he becomes a 9+ million dollar winger, even as a 28/29 year old assuming we have bounced back from Covid, that part is harder to pick but certainly what Mo will be banking on by singing a shorter deal.

Which is the give and take here of why some are interested in locking up Mantha long-term. I get the he hasn't proven anything crowd in terms of I want a full season. What we do know is in his last two partial seasons and his last whatever 80 games so close to a season he has put up big time first line numbers both production wise and play driving wise on a freaking awful team and he is the one forward that doesn't look like crap when he is away from Larkin.

It is a dangerous game of chance on him that we are playing. I can see Stevie doing it, but in two or three years when he is walking into UFA we have to get a decent return for him if he has blown up, which I am one of the posters that thinks that is about to happen. We are getting more talent up and around him now with the waive of younger players. The offense isn't going to be all on Larkin and Mantha to generate which it mostly has been since Z left and outside of AA caring for a season. The increase in talent should help both guys a lot and actually increase their production. I think it will actually push Bertuzzi down the lineup shortly.

Completely agree - it's a very dangerous game. I think people are sleeping on just how good Mantha is.

Based on what we saw last year with Mantha, he's going to make a lot of money in the near future. We might as well lock him up long-term now before he stays healthy and cements himself as an elite tier hockey player.

Then you have Larkin and Mantha locked up long term and you're in a really good spot. Start adding talent around them and we can turn the corner quicker than most people expect. Don't forget that the hockey gods owe us some lottery luck too...

 

[Retire91]

I kinda have 2 thoughts on a short term deal,
1 is he doesn't think we have seen his best so he wants to put in some more seasons so he can sign at his ceiling later
2 which is the scary thought is he wants to test the UFA market as soon as possible :O

 

[jaster]

They were his second and third full seasons. And he had to come back from injury in both. To call that his consistent ceiling at his Healthy peak seems to stead away from the evidence. The evidence being that’s how he’s performing in his first years while being off injured.

That's not really evidence of anything, other than historically being injury-prone. You're suggesting some predictive measures here. And in terms of predictive measures, I hear what you're saying. I can see the argument that Mantha should still get better and, if he stays healthy, has a chance to blow the doors off. I'm not saying that can't happen, but I'm just not expecting it.

Mantha was a dog up until about 1.5-2 years ago. Big and skilled of course, but he was lazy, was hesitant to engage, seemed afraid to try to dominate. Eventually a switch flipped and he became the player he is now. I think that was his big breakthrough. I don't see much more upside in him. Like I said, hitting 35+ and sniffing 40 one of the next few years seems plausible. But forwards, on average, peak at about 27. Of the top-20 goal scorers last season, 15 of them were under 27 years old. This next season is his age-26 season. He doesn't have much time before he hits crests the peak of his career. Could he be the exception? Sure, but I think we're setting ourselves up for disappointment if we expect that.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

I kinda have 2 thoughts on a short term deal,
1 is he doesn't think we have seen his best so he wants to put in some more seasons so he can sign at his ceiling later
2 which is the scary thought is he wants to test the UFA market as soon as possible :O

He's already stated numerous times that he wants a long term deal and stay in Detroit for a long time. The reasoning of purchasing his home in Bloomfield Hills. So why would he want to test the UFA market sooner rather then later?

 

[ArmChairGM89]

That's not really evidence of anything, other than historically being injury-prone. You're suggesting some predictive measures here. And in terms of predictive measures, I hear what you're saying. I can see the argument that Mantha should still get better and, if he stays healthy, has a chance to blow the doors off. I'm not saying that can't happen, but I'm just not expecting it.

Mantha was a dog up until about 1.5-2 years ago. Big and skilled of course, but he was lazy, was hesitant to engage, seemed afraid to try to dominate. Eventually a switch flipped and he became the player he is now. I think that was his big breakthrough. I don't see much more upside in him. Like I said, hitting 35+ and sniffing 40 one of the next few years seems plausible. But forwards, on average, peak at about 27. Of the top-20 goal scorers last season, 15 of them were under 27 years old. This next season is his age-26 season. He doesn't have much time before he hits crests the peak of his career. Could he be the exception? Sure, but I think we're setting ourselves up for disappointment if we expect that.

I agree with all this. But I think injury effects more than games missed which leads me to believe he’s already that 35 goal guy. I think if he stayed healthy for the next five years he’d never see a season under 30 you think he might only see one over 30. That’s the difference.

 

[Henkka]

Mantha scale from evolving-hockey:

1-year: 5.45M
2-year: 5.68M
-----------------UFA
3-year: 6.27M
4- year: 6.54M
5-year: 6.77M
6-year: 7.20M
7-year: 7.42M
8-year: 8.25M

 

[Winger98]

Again, to each their own. Maybe I'm more positive on Zadina than most, but in a few years I don't see much difference between his point totals and Laine's, and Zadina brings other things to the table.

Laine is obviously the superior player at the moment. But if the plan is to make 1-2 major trade/free agency splashes, I would MUCH rather do that at center and defense, and when the kids are ready, versus dropping $9-10M AAV on a winger now, knowing that the first 2-3 years of that mega deal will be more "getting ready" than "making hay".

Remove Laine from it and insert any premium piece. I wouldn't hold off on making a deal now that will pay off for us for the next 5-8 years with the blind hope of making a different move two or three years from now. Those future moves will still be there to be pursued if they are there at all. If we pass up move after move because of what might happen several years from now the most likely scenario is that we end up with nothing.

I think people are way too hung up on preserving cap space and creating this static roster with no movement in it for the next ten years where we slot in blue chip after blue chip.

 

[jkutswings]

Remove Laine from it and insert any premium piece. I wouldn't hold off on making a deal now that will pay off for us for the next 5-8 years with the blind hope of making a different move two or three years from now. Those future moves will still be there to be pursued if they are there at all. If we pass up move after move because of what might happen several years from now the most likely scenario is that we end up with nothing.

I think people are way too hung up on preserving cap space and creating this static roster with no movement in it for the next ten years where we slot in blue chip after blue chip.

Makes sense. I just have very specific requirements in what I consider a premium piece to be, and Laine isn't it.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Exactly, offseason 2022. Throw $10m x 6-7yrs @ Barkov & $9m x 7 yrs to Werenski. The following season reup Larkin @ $9m x 7yrs.

Mantha-Bert & Zadina-Raymond should all be in their prime by then (if not already).

Raymond-Barkov-Mantha
Bert-Larkin-Zadina
Fabbri-Veleno-Berggren
xx-Ras-xx

Nice. And then after we've spent $40M in cap on Barkov/Werenski/Larkin/Mantha/Bertuzzi, we can pay Seider/Zadina/Hronek/Raymond/2021 Lottery in $5 Hot-N-Readys.

 

[Retire91]

He's already stated numerous times that he wants a long term deal and stay in Detroit for a long time. The reasoning of purchasing his home in Bloomfield Hills. So why would he want to test the UFA market sooner rather then later?

but if that is the case then I don't see a reason for a short term contract? Unless he thinks he will get better money if he is able to put up some better seasons.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

I think Detroit would be smart to move a Mantha for a blue chip prospect LHD or centerman who is under 20. Mantha will be in his late 20s or have left by UFA when Detroit is on the upswing into real playoff contention.