Premier League 2020-2021 (Part I)

[YNWA14]

It really is.

Not getting into the legitimacy of each PK but, I was honestly surprised they didn’t have more touches in the box. 5 teams, which is kind of a lot vs Man Utd, had more touches in the box than them.

To put that into perspective they have almost as many penalties as City and Liverpool combined, two teams with very quick, shifty forwards that get into the box much more frequently than they do. It's not just the number that they received, but the number that those other two teams have or haven't had that make it such an obscene statistic.

 

[Savant]

I don't understand the whole penalty thing.
It's like thos hockey fans that think penalties should be equaled every game.

In football, given the very few calls, you examine it play per play rather than make up a ridiculous theory.
How many United penalties were NOT warranted?
Two off the top of my head.
So even with the ref mistakes (and United aren't the only ones benefiting from ref mistakes), it goes down to 12 JUSTIFIED penalties (and as every team many NOT called).

Not at all. No one is making up a theory. The facts state Utd were given a disproportionate number of penalties relative to...(well any metric)...in this case number of touches in the box. Of the top six teams, they were next to last in touches in the boxes, only better than Mourinho’s Tottenham. It’s a very high return on investment.

Logic would state a team with the most touches in the box would have the most PKs just for common sense. No one is trying to push an agenda here, just looking at the numbers. There isn’t (Or at least I haven’t seen) a stat for xPK, but United is WAY over the mean here.

Man City, for example had the second most PKs awarded in the league, but based on touches in the box they were right where they should have been. Chelsea around the right number too.

 

[Evilo]

No, clearly no theory understated there
No agenda at all

 

[East Coast Bias]

I would target 20 penalties next season. Summer plan should be:

Sign Sancho
Get all the Penalties
Profit

 

[Savant]

No, clearly no theory understated there
No agenda at all

Are you saying that I made up all the numbers? I think it’s interesting. People said Man Utd get penalties because they are in the box a lot, but they are in the bottom half compared to the top six in that regard. I’m just reading the graph.

 

[S E P H]

Thoughts ?

POTS: Kevin de Bruyne
U23 POTS: Trent Alexander-Arnold (Greenwood in 2nd place)
MOTS: Nuno Espírito Santo
Best New Signing: Rodri
Most Improved: Adama Traoré (Keita in 2nd place)
Most Underrated: Kasper Schmeichel (Jimenez in 2nd place)
Biggest Flop: Sebastien Haller

Thoughts: This is easily de Bruyne and I think it's a travesty that Mane or a KFC player is going to win it over him. Can't go wrong with TAA, his free kicks could already be on Messi's level and seeing someone so talent wasted away as fullback is a bit frustrating to watch. Espirito Santo easily and I think they could've gone higher if it wasn't for them losing some of their momentum during the restart. Wolves need a strong summer window to improve the defence and midfield, but they can potentially take the next step if they do so.

I think Bruno is too easy of an answer here, he's only played like three to four months and yes he's looked good. However, it could just be the initial rush of good form from joining a new team as clubs get from a managerial change. He's going to be a great player, but I suggest that everything went well for United and had as little of growing pains as possible. There should be some rebound effect of some nature next season for them. Because of these reasons I went for Rodri who played the entire season and Citeh's defence would've looked so much worse without him. Most improve player came down to Traore and Keita, Adama specifically who'll probably be an 80 million pound transfer in the future he's been that good. I think there is a stat out there that he had the most successful 1v1 rushes of any other EPL player.

Schmeichel might be well known throughout the EPL community, but I honestly believe he could be the starter for any team in the league at this current point of time except two; Liverpool with Allison and Sheffield with Henderson. He's as good as a goalkeeper could be even though he has some brainfarts here and there. As for Raul, I think he could be starting for majority of teams too, he's an underrated talent that reminds me of Firmino, but with better finishing skills. Biggest flop, take any single player from Everton, Newcastle, or West Ham, but the easiest answer here is Haller and I think majority of us saw this coming.

 

[Evilo]

No, i'm saying you're implying they were favoured by ref.
You're not the only one doing it, it's been a Liverpool fans complaint (at least 3 different off the top of my head) for weeks now.
Yet when countered by facts, not stats (pens were deserved except 2), you just say, well it's just a stat, nothing more.

Yeah you almost fooled us.

 

[East Coast Bias]

The graph says this is statistical outlier, and a highly unsustainable trend that won't continue into next season.

But that's not what people are implying with this graph. That's the difference.

 

[Savant]

No, i'm saying you're implying they were favoured by ref.
You're not the only one doing it, it's been a Liverpool fans complaint (at least 3 different off the top of my head) for weeks now.
Yet when countered by facts, not stats (pens were deserved except 2), you just say, well it's just a stat, nothing more.

Yeah you almost fooled us.

How am I implying ref favoritism? There has been some obvious banter, I saw a graph that put some data to it and that’s it. Graph doesn’t say anything about ref favoritism, it’s about PK vs Touches in the Box.

The bolded is a subjective statement.

 

[Savant]

The graph says this is statistical outlier, and a highly unsustainable trend that won't continue into next season.

But that's not what people are implying with this graph. That's the difference.

Hold on a second. The post I replied to with the graph said something along the lines of ‘teams should stop fouling United in the box’. The graph shows that United are not in the box enough to expect near the number of PKs they were given. There’s not an ulterior motive here.

 

[hatterson]

How am I implying ref favoritism? There has been some obvious banter, I saw a graph that put some data to it and that’s it. Graph doesn’t say anything about ref favoritism, it’s about PK vs Touches in the Box.

The bolded is a subjective statement.

You're welcome to go back and fine ones that weren't deserved....

 

[Stray Wasp]

I don't think they should be relying on Saint-Maximin to be a goal scorer, he's the kind of player that will generate a lot of chances for you but should not be the main scoring threat. They need a legitimate striker in there that can feed off Saint-Maximin and Almiron, rather than continuing to force square pegs into round holes.

I agree Saint-Maximin doesn't need to be the main goal-scoring threat. I think, however, that whichever way you cut it, a player of his type should be good for six league goals a season at a bare minimum. His scoring rate over 2019/20 projected to fall short even of that incredibly modest target.

This season Shelvey scored six league goals, the centre-backs nine between them. That production could easily halve next season, and so Saint-Maximin and Almiron would need to pick up the slack, otherwise even if the club finds a striker who actually scores goals, it would likely result in the team going nowhere, since the odds on the goals against column coming down are low.

 

[hatterson]

The graph says this is statistical outlier, and a highly unsustainable trend that won't continue into next season.

But that's not what people are implying with this graph. That's the difference.

Yes. Likely United will receive fewer penalties (by a decent amount) next year.

Penalties are rare events (even with how many United had, it's still only one every 3 games average, normally it's closer to one every 10 or more) so you're going to have significant variance.

 

[Savant]

You're welcome to go back and fine ones that weren't deserved....

I’m good. That’s not the point of this exercise. Even if people want it to be. The point is that it’s a statistical anomaly.

 

[Savant]

Yes. Likely United will receive fewer penalties (by a decent amount) next year.



Penalties are rare events (even with how many United had, it's still only one every 3 games average, normally it's closer to one every 10 or more) so you're going to have significant variance.

This is interesting too. On the other side of the fence.

Liverpool had three (Salah, Firmino & Mane) of the top four (Sterling was 2nd) players with number of touches in the opposition box. Liverpool was awarded only 5 penalties, much under their expected number on the graph I posted.

Man Utd only had two players in top 25 of that metric and had triple LFC’s penalties. This doesn’t mean ref favoritism but it’s another anomaly. I’m not going to watch the replay on every Utd PK and I’m not going to watch the almost 600 box touches that the three LFC players had either to check against how many LFC should have had either.

What is objective is that Man Utd set a record for PKs and got more than they were expected (and Liverpool got much less than they were expected) based on touches in the box. Everything else is subjective.

 

[Stray Wasp]

Sorry to say, he won't be.
St Maximin can unbalance the best defenses, dribble through 3 guys and the goalie and still shoot wide or turn blind to the teammate alone in front of an empty net.

When will this talking up of all French players cease?

Joking apart, I wish that, based on what I've seen, I could feel confident time will prove you wrong. But I can't envisage Saint-Maximin developing into a top-rank, consistent performer.

Worse, as you may have in mind, the history of NUFC and French attacking midfielders (Ginola, Robert, N'Zogbia and Ben Arfa) tends to follow the same pattern - the first full season is always the best, and the drop off is merely noticeable if you're lucky, drastic if you're not.

Apologies if it's been reported here before and I've forgotten it, but Saint-Maximin is already fretting over the six-year contract he signed last summer for a basic salary rumoured to be as (relatively) small as £36,000 a week. So with the season barely over, already there exists cause for concern that disillusionment might set it.

 

[Stray Wasp]

Biggest flop, take any single player from Everton, Newcastle, or West Ham

Huh? Joelinton aside, I don't think many Newcastle players might reasonably be called 'flops'. That would imply expectations of them were positive in the first place.

Dubravka and, to a more modest degree Fernandez, I'd go so far as to call successes.

 

[The Abusement Park]

You're welcome to go back and fine ones that weren't deserved....

There’s two off the top of my head, the one vs Norwich and the one vs Villa.

 

[The Abusement Park]

I’m good. That’s not the point of this exercise. Even if people want it to be. The point is that it’s a statistical anomaly.

Correct it is a statistical anomaly. And other than 2 they were all warranted penalties. There’s no agenda.

 

[Evilo]

This is interesting too. On the other side of the fence.

Liverpool had three (Salah, Firmino & Mane) of the top four (Sterling was 2nd) players with number of touches in the opposition box. Liverpool was awarded only 5 penalties, much under their expected number on the graph I posted.

Man Utd only had two players in top 25 of that metric and had triple LFC’s penalties. This doesn’t mean ref favoritism but it’s another anomaly. I’m not going to watch the replay on every Utd PK and I’m not going to watch the almost 600 box touches that the three LFC players had either to check against how many LFC should have had either.

What is objective is that Man Utd set a record for PKs and got more than they were expected (and Liverpool got much less than they were expected) based on touches in the box. Everything else is subjective.

I think the explanation is easy on Liverpool.
After Salah and Mane dove like crazy every time they got near the box the last 2 years, defensemen now are very careful not to approach them.

See?

 

[Evilo]

When will this talking up of all French players cease?

Joking apart, I wish that, based on what I've seen, I could feel confident time will prove you wrong. But I can't envisage Saint-Maximin developing into a top-rank, consistent performer.

Worse, as you may have in mind, the history of NUFC and French attacking midfielders (Ginola, Robert, N'Zogbia and Ben Arfa) tends to follow the same pattern - the first full season is always the best, and the drop off is merely noticeable if you're lucky, drastic if you're not.

Apologies if it's been reported here before and I've forgotten it, but Saint-Maximin is already fretting over the six-year contract he signed last summer for a basic salary rumoured to be as (relatively) small as £36,000 a week. So with the season barely over, already there exists cause for concern that disillusionment might set it.

Vieira flamed him for his attitude many times. And for his lack of end product. And he was their best offensive player and he still benched him.

Unfortunately, I don't think St Maximin will amount to what he could have been.

 

[YNWA14]

Correct it is a statistical anomaly. And other than 2 they were all warranted penalties. There’s no agenda.

Not speaking on an agenda one way or another, but I think there's more to it than just whether they had 2 warranted or unwarranted penalties. If you really wanted to try and see some kind of agenda you'd also have to look at penalties not awarded for other teams that should have been vs. a million other variables. That feels like it would be a lot of work. What we can see from the graph though is that it seems really unlikely that United would have warranted that many penalties when City and Liverpool had (much) fewer.

Most likely this will balance out over time though, assuming that the system is not broken/biased.

 

[Savant]

I think the explanation is easy on Liverpool.
After Salah and Mane dove like crazy every time they got near the box the last 2 years, defensemen now are very careful not to approach them.

See?

Again, that is subjective. Salah and Mane don’t dive anymore than anyone else, and there are (also subjectively) much worse offenders. I don’t think there is any evidence that they are approached less than anyone else. Also if they have are taking more touches in the box, logic would state it is unlikely they are being approached too; certainly not triple the rate Man Utd is getting approached and double the rate Man City is getting approached. This is all subjective.

 

[Evilo]

Again, that is subjective. Salah and Mane don’t dive anymore than anyone else (subjective), and there are (also subjectively) much worse offenders. I don’t think there is any evidence (subjective) that they are approached less than anyone else. Also if they have are taking more touches in the box, logic (subjective) would state it is unlikely they are being approached too; certainly not triple the rate Man Utd is getting approached and double the rate Man City is getting approached. This is all subjective.

 

[Live in the Now]

The reason why Liverpool has less penalties is because our assists come from fullbacks who pass the ball to players who immediately shoot. Can't get penalties when the other team doesn't even have time to close players down, and I think this little bit of tactical play will start to be adopted by a lot of teams. The second reason is because the other goals usually come from fast counters.

Liverpool doesn't shoot the ball a lot compared to other top teams, but when their players decide to try to score, they will try to do it immediately. The big Fabinho goals and the goals against Newcastle last weekend are pretty good examples of this.